Time journalist Simon Shuster has just published an article titled “Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight,” which contains three revelations that do not bode well for that struggle. First, the article reveals that Zelensky—who remains staunchly opposed to either truce or peace—is so convinced of Ukraine’s victory that one of his closest aides describes him as “delud[ing] himself.” Second, the article reveals that after his September trip to the U.S., Zelensky has been feeling betrayed by his Western allies, who he feels have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it. Last but not least, even if the West did come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them,” one of Zelensky’s close aides told Time’s Shuster, revealing that the average age of a Ukrainian soldier has already reached 43.1 That third revelation is, perhaps, the most consequential of the revelations that Shuster—who has been relentlessly covering post-Soviet conflicts for decades—makes in his Nov. 1 article.

The reason I think this last revelation might be the most consequential is because it shows both Ukraine’s adversary and its allies, that, on its current trajectory, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) will have to conscript pre-pension age males in the not-so-distance future. And here’s why: Less than a month after the Russian invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022, the average age of Ukrainian soldiers was 30-35, according to FT.2 Thus, if the ageing of the ZSU’s rank-and-file continues at the rate reported between the launch of the invasion and now, then the average age of Ukrainian soldiers one year and two years from now would be 48-51 and 52-58, respectively. Thanks to the aging of Ukraine’s population, the pre-war number of 35 to 49-year-old males (a 26% share of the total male population) was estimated by the World Bank to be greater than the number of 20 to 34-year-old males (a 17% share of the total male population) in 2022.3 However, older cohorts tend to have greater health problems, especially in a country with a male life expectancy of 65, ranking 98th of 123 in the world by that metric. As the close aide to Zelensky explained to Shuster, “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with ... This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”

During a discussion on the future of AI hosted by Graham Allison at the Harvard Institute of Politics, former Google chairman Eric Schmidt extrapolated the future of geopolitics, stating that “future national security issues will be determined by how quickly you can innovate against the solution.” Schmidt articulated his belief in the ultimate substitution of soft power with “innovative power” in geopolitics and candidly described the benefits of AI while admitting that the threats are “quite profound.” Schmidt spoke on six areas of significant relevance for the future of AI.

October 31 update: Ongoing stalemate. Ukraine held another peace conference attended by over 60 countries, but not Russia or China. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +16 square miles.

After weeks of stalemate, Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson was elected as the new Speaker of the House on Oct. 25, 2023. Johnson, who was elected to Congress in 2016, initially expressed support for Ukraine in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war, stating that the United States “should impose debilitating sanctions on Russia’s economic interests.” However, Johnson has since shown resistance to the provision of aid for Ukraine. For instance, he stated that the U.S. should not provide additional aid “when our own border is in chaos, American mothers are struggling to find baby formula, gas prices are at record highs and American families are struggling to make ends meet, without sufficient oversight over where the money will go.” This stance has earned him an “F” on the GOP Congressional Report Card, both in terms of his voting patterns as well as his anti-Ukraine statements.

October 24 update: No significant territorial change. Biden gave a speech on US aid for Ukraine, arguing that if not stopped, Putin “won’t limit himself just to Ukraine.” Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +16 square miles.

October 17 update: Continued stalemate. Zelensky confirmed Ukraine’s first use of ATACMS missiles from US, against airfields in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +3 square miles.

October 10 update: No significant territorial change. Putin said Russia may withdraw from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +8 square miles.

October 3 update: Persistent stalemate. US short-term spending bill passed without Ukraine funding, but several months of short-term aid remains available. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +7 square miles.

Speaking to BBC on Sept. 10, 2023, America’s outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Mark Milley predicted that the weather will continue to favor fighting in Ukraine until about Oct. 10-25. “There's still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days' worth of fighting weather left, so the Ukrainians aren't done,” the general said. Milley, whose JCS role ends Oct. 1, could have a plausible weather forecast we do not have access to. Or he could be speaking from the experience of watching (and advising on one side) the Russian and Ukrainian forces as they battled each other last fall and winter. If so, does this very recent history (October 2022-February 2023) support the proposition that “Generals Mud and Frost” may force the Ukrainian and Russian forces to scale down combat and enter a seasonal stalemate? Here is what we have learned.

September 26 update: No significant territorial change. Zelensky said Ukraine's counteroffensive will not stop during winter and claimed Ukraine will liberate 3 more cities. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +15 square miles.