September 26 update: No significant territorial change. Zelensky said Ukraine's counteroffensive will not stop during winter and claimed Ukraine will liberate 3 more cities. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +15 square miles.

September 19 update: Continued stalemate. Zelensky and Biden appealed for support at the UN before Zelensky’s planned trip to Washington DC. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +19 square miles.

The Levada Center has just released the latest installment in its series of polls on which countries Russians consider to be “great” as well as on their general attitudes toward certain countries. The polls show that the share of Russians who view their own country as great has almost doubled in the past two decades from 43% in 2002 to 80% in 2023 (Table 1) in a clear reflection that both a recent streak of increases in Russia’s national power and the Kremlin’s consistent messaging on Russia’s “rise from its knees” during Vladimir Putin’s rule continue to have an impact on the Russian public.

In addition to increasingly seeing their own country as great, Russians also see a similar trend in China. In fact, the share of Levada respondents who view China as great has more than tripled, from 19% in 2002 to 63% in 2023, reflecting the steady strengthening of Moscow’s alignment with Beijing. The share of Russians who view India, with which Russia has enjoyed steadily positive relations, as great, has also nearly tripled, from 5% to 14% during the same period.  

September 12 update: No significant territorial change. Romania confirmed Russian parts fell into its territory on the border with Ukraine. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +12.

The results of the Levada Center’s latest installment in its series of polls on Russians’ attitudes’ toward Russia’s war in Ukraine indicate that the share of peaceniks exceed the share of war hawks among common Russians.

In fact, if adding the shares of those who definitely support and those who rather support the launch of peace negotiations (Option 1) with those who definitely support and those who rather support the continuation of the so-called special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine (Option 2), then total support for the launch of peace talks (Option 1) has exceeded total support for continued war (Option 2) in (almost) all monthly polls since September 2022,1 except for May 2023 (see Graph 1).

September 5 update: Ongoing territorial stalemate. Zelensky replaced Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov after several military recruitment and procurement scandals. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +12.

August 29 update: No major territorial changes. Ukraine announced the liberation of the village of Robotyne, breaking the first Russian defensive line in the south. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +7.

August 22 update: Territorial stalemate. Zelensky toured Europe for support, including F-16s, while Putin addressed BRICS, decrying sanctions and promising Russian grain supply. Net territorial change in the past month: No significant change.

"Russia becomes Europe’s biggest economy.” That’s the headline that Kremlin-funded RT’s editors put on a story they ran Aug. 4. The story went on to trumpet that “Russia was among the world’s five largest economies and the largest in Europe in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) as of the end of 2022, despite Western sanctions, the latest World Economics report has revealed.” Three days later, analytical resource bne IntelliNews, which is focused on emerging markets, published an article repeating these two claims. “In these terms Russia has just overtaken Germany to become the fifth wealthiest economy in the world and the largest in Europe, worth $5.3 trillion,” the report said, without citation.

But are these claims accurate? We consulted the World Bank’s and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) databases, which both offer the following methodologically different approaches toward measuring countries’ GDP in terms of purchasing power parity: (1) absolute value of GDP, PPP, measured in current dollars, (2) absolute value of GDP, PPP, measured in constant 2017 international dollars, and (3) countries’ shares in world GDP, PPP, also measured in constant dollars. Only the first of these three approaches (GDP, PPP, in current dollars) supports the dual claim that Russia has become Europe’s largest and the world’s fifth largest economy in 2022 (see Table 1). The other two methods (GDP, PPP, in constant dollars and share of world’s GDP, PPP, in constant dollars) ran counter to these two claims, showing that Russia was Europe’s second largest economy after Germany, as well as the world’s sixth largest economy in 2022 (see Tables 2 and 3).

August 15 update: No significant territorial changes. Russia fired warning shots, boarded, and searched a Palau-flagged cargo ship heading to Ukraine in Black Sea international waters. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +10 square miles.