The author writes that a change in ambassadors will not repair the strained U.S.-Russia relationship, now assured for several more years by the August round of sanctions. In fact, as future presidential administrations are likely to be tougher on Russia, relations between the two countries could likely get worse. The generation of American politicians now ascending to the foreign policy elite has much less understanding of Russia than its Cold War counterparts, which, the author argues, is more dangerous than the new sanctions. For these politicians, who came into their careers in an era where Russia was dismissed and the issues of the day were terrorism and China, Russia's 2016 election interference came as something of a shock. In the years to follow the Trump administration, these people will eventually return to positions of power in the foreign policy establishment, but their knowledge of Russia remains shallow and their experience with Russia limited. "This is why Russia will be viewed as a brazen and aggressive global actor that is consciously trying to break the liberal world order and hurt U.S. interests in every corner of the world." As such, this Russia needs to be "put in its place." But this phenomenon isn't one sided; similar trends are underway in Moscow. Cold War-era officials are stepping aside and people who sincerely view America as Russia’s enemy are stepping up. Like the Americans, they, too, believe their adversary's intent to hurt them is born of a "state of long-term decay." When the stereotype-driven and emotionally charged clash between these two groups comes, it will be more damaging than today's conflict. Russia, having devoted resources to competition with the U.S. instead of to handling domestic issues, will be especially harmed. The author argues that the problem is rooted "in perpetual mutual misunderstanding, miscalculation and mismanagement." Few Russians know how the U.S. government works or have much access in Washington, something which will only get worse due to the toxicity of Russia in U.S. politics. With little hope for a thaw in American attitudes, Russians will need to improve their understanding of Washington and make good contacts there, a move that will also aid American understanding of Russia. 

Read the full article on the Carnegie Moscow Center's website. 

Photo credit: Wikicommons photo by Jastrow shared in the public domain.