Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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The Bully in the Bubble

Adam E. Casey and Seva Gunitsky February 04, 2022 Recommended Reads
Putin and the perils of information isolation.
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With Putin, Biden Should Channel His Inner Realist

Stephen Wertheim February 03, 2022 Recommended Reads
A contest of ideas is hobbling U.S. policy in the standoff over Ukraine.
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Putin Has Off-Ramps: Let’s Not Block Them

Henry Hale and Adam Lenton February 02, 2022 Recommended Reads
Accounts claiming Putin has passed the point of no return overlook key sources of Putin’s domestic appeal, which is based much more on pragmatically providing stability, security, and prosperity than on aggressiveness.
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When Redlines Fail

Dan Altman and Kathleen Powers February 02, 2022 Recommended Reads
Washington should create the strongest possible incentive for Putin to stand down by making clear that U.S. sanctions will be maximized if Russia invades and minimized if it does not.
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Taiwan Is Not Ukraine: Stop Linking Their Fates Together

Kharis Templeman January 27, 2022 Recommended Reads
In the current geopolitical moment, the differences between Ukraine and Taiwan are far more important than their similarities—and linking together the security threats that the two countries face can make both situations worse.
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The Putin Doctrine: A Move on Ukraine Has Always Been Part of the Plan

Angela Stent January 27, 2022 Recommended Reads
As the United States and its allies await Russia’s next move and try to deter an invasion with diplomacy and the threat of heavy sanctions, they need to understand Putin’s motives and what they portend.
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Afghanistan Has Never Been Moscow or Washington’s to Win or Lose

Sergey Radchenko August 16, 2021 Recommended Reads
Radchenko: When it comes to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden made the right call, even if the execution was far less impressive than the orderly Soviet pullout some 30 years ago. What is left in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal was never going to be pretty but nor did the Soviets leave a pretty sight. But this hardly changes the basic issue: Getting in was a mistake; getting out was the right thing to do. Because in the end Afghanistan was never Moscow’s, or Washington’s, to win or lose. 
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Afghanistan Is a Wake-Up Call for ‘Major Non-NATO Allies’

Nikolas K. Gvosdev August 16, 2021 Recommended Reads
From Afghanistan to Hungary, there is confusion about what alliance means and what steps the United States is prepared to take on behalf of those it considers allies. These matters need resolution because the United States cannot allow any doubt about what commitments it is prepared to enforce, especially with great power competitors more prepared to test any ambiguity in America’s stance.
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Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)?

Simon Saradzhyan April 14, 2021 Recommended Reads
Not a day goes by without dire warnings of an imminent Russian military invasion of Ukraine, but Putin is unlikely to order an offensive against Ukraine unless Zelensky makes the first military move on the Donbass chessboard.
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Russia-Ukraine War Alert: What’s Behind It and What Lies Ahead?

Dmitri Trenin April 13, 2021 Recommended Reads
Going overkill in terms of military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border now may avoid the need to do terrible things at a later point.
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Stay Out of the Regime Change Business

Benjamin Denison June 16, 2020 Recommended Reads
Pursuing short-term wins through covert regime change may ultimately undermine U.S. foreign policy.
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Ukraine, Not Russia, Will Sue for Peace as Pandemic Pressure Rises

Joseph Haberman May 14, 2020 Recommended Reads
With the prospect of a major economic crisis, Russia and Ukraine may face increasing pressure to lessen the burden to their economies and populations by seeking a peace settlement in Donbass. The pandemic could compel Ukraine to capitulate first.
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