Russia in Review, April 13-20, 2018

This Week’s Highlights:

  • When planning the April 13 airstrikes on Syria, Trump pressed his team to also consider strikes on Russian and Iranian targets in that country, but ended up focusing on Assad’s suspected chemical facilities only. The strikes did not cross Russia’s red lines in Syria, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Following the strikes, the Pentagon has concluded that the barrage of missiles by U.S., U.K. and French missiles most likely will not stop Assad's chemical weapons program.
  • Trump invited Putin to the U.S. during a phone call last month and said he would be glad to see Putin in the White House and then would be happy to meet again in a reciprocal visit to Russia.
  • The dismantling of nuclear warheads at America’s Pantex facility has grown increasingly urgent to keep the U.S. from exceeding a limit of 1,550 warheads permitted under the New START treaty with Russia.
  • The U.N. predicts a 36 percent and a 51 percent decline in the population of Ukraine and Moldova by the end of the century, respectively. Russia, meanwhile, is expected to lose 13 percent by 2100.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • There are 54 metric tons of surplus plutonium in U.S. Energy Department facilities. Pantex, a plant near Amarillo, holds so much plutonium that it has exceeded the 20,000 cores, called “pits,” regulations allow it to hold in its temporary storage facility. The dismantling of nuclear warheads at Pantex has grown increasingly urgent to keep the U.S. from exceeding a limit of 1,550 warheads permitted under the New START treaty with Russia. (Reuters, 04.20.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • Russian will not offer to host a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said April 20. The meeting is to take place by the end of May. Mike Pompeo, the C.I.A. director and secretary of state nominee, traveled to North Korea and met with Kim, the strongest indicator to date that plans for direct talks between Kim and Trump are moving ahead. (Reuters, 06.20.18, New York Times, 04.17.18)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said North Korea is waiting to see whether the U.S. walks out of the Iranian nuclear deal in May. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will visit the White House next week, hoping to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump against pulling the U.S. out of the agreement at his self-imposed May 12 deadline. Iran, Britain, Germany and France failed on April 16 to convince EU states to impose new sanctions on Iran as the bloc’s members argue over how to prevent the U.S. pulling out of the nuclear deal. (Financial Times, 04.17.18, Russia Matters, 04.20.18, Wall Street Journal, 04.18.19)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • The Russian Defense Ministry and NATO said Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia's military general staff, and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Curtis Scaparrotti met in Baku on April 19. NATO said the Baku meeting "focused on issues related to military posture and exercises" and ways to avoid actions that could lead to war. The Russian ministry said the two officers discussed confidence-building measures and incident prevention. (RFE/RL, 04.19.18)
  • Russia regards U.S. statements on possible sanctions against Turkey for the purchase of S-400 air defense missile systems as blackmail in favor of American companies, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (TASS, 04.20.18)
  • Milo Djukanovic, who defied Russia to take Montenegro into NATO, won his country’s April 15 presidential election on a pledge to stay on course for EU membership. (Bloomberg, 04.16.18)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • The U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals could soon be unconstrained by any binding arms control agreements for the first time since 1972, triggering an expensive and dangerous new arms race, a group of former officials and experts from the U.S., Europe and Russia has warned. In a statement, the signatories point out that the 2010 New START treaty will expire in February 2021, unless urgent steps are taken to extend it. (Guardian, 04.17.18)

Counter-terrorism:

  • A terror suspect has reportedly killed himself with an explosive device during a raid launched by security forces against an Islamic State terror cell in southern Russia’s Rostov region. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.18)

Conflict in Syria:

  • The U.S. has credible information that Russia and Syria are trying to “sanitize” the site of a suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria while denying access to the area by international inspectors, the U.S. State Department said on April 19. Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said the team of inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had not been given access to the site of the alleged April 7 attack in the town of Douma. Kenneth Ward, U.S. ambassador to the OPCW, said the U.S. was concerned Russian officials may have tampered with the site. Director-General of the OPCW Ahmet Uzumcu said the two suspected attack sites were under the control of the Russian military police. The Kremlin has earlier said that allegations that chemical weapons inspectors were not being allowed access to Douma were groundless, and one of its ambassadors claimed there was no evidence that the attack had ever actually happened. (Reuters, 04.19.18, RFE/RL, 04.18.18, Wall Street Journal, 04.17.18. The Moscow Times, 04.16.18, Irish Times, 04.17.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump declared victory April 14 in the largest application of military force he has ordered. ''A perfectly executed strike last night,'' Trump wrote on Twitter. “Mission Accomplished!” Trump tweeted a day after the allied assault on Syrian facilities that the U.S., Britain and France say are part of a large chemical weapons program. “Could not have had a better result.'' When announcing the April 13 strikes, Trump said the main purpose of the attacks was to establish "a strong deterrent" against chemical weapons use. Trump called on both Russia and Iran to stop supporting Assad's "murderous" and "terrible regime." (The Washington Post, 04.15.18, New York Times, 04.14.18, RFE/RL, 04.14.18)
    • Trump spoke to British Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron after the April 13 strikes. The White House said the leaders agreed the air strikes in Syria "were successful and necessary to deter" the future use of chemical weapons. Macron and May also spoke in addresses to their nations. "A red line has been crossed," said Macron. "We cannot tolerate the normalization of the use of chemical weapons." Macron said April 15 he convinced Trump to not disengage from Syria and to limit airstrikes to chemical-weapons targets. White House press secretary Sarah Sanders didn't address Macron's comments directly, but said Trump "wants U.S. forces to come home as quickly as possible." (RFE/RL, 04.16.18, Wall Street Journal, 04.16.18)
  • While Donald Trump pressed his team last week to consider strikes on Russian and Iranian targets in Syria if necessary to get at the Assad regime's military equipment, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis pushed back. Mattis also urged Trump to get congressional approval before the strikes, but was overruled by Trump, who wanted a rapid and dramatic response, military and administration officials said. After the strikes, Mattis said they were a “one-time shot" aimed at dissuading Assad from deploying chemical weapons. (Wall Street Journal, 04.16.18, RFE/RL, 04.16.18, New York Times, 04.17.18)
  • At a Pentagon briefing on April 14, Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie said three sites that are "fundamental components of the regime's chemical weapons infrastructure" were struck by the U.S., U.K. and French missiles. The three sites included the Barzah chemical weapons research and development center near Damascus that was hit by 76 missiles and "destroyed." McKenzie said the Him Shinshar chemical weapons storage facility near Homs was hit by 22 missiles. He said 105 missiles were launched by the U.S., U.K. and France, while Syrian forces fired only 40 surface-to-air missiles in response. (RFE/RL, 04.14.18, RFE/RL, 04.15.18)
  • U.S. Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Russians had not been notified before the strikes, but normal “de-confliction channels” had been used for “airspace issues.” "Before we took action, the United States communicated with the Russian Federation to reduce the danger of any Russian or civilian casualties," the U.S. ambassador in Moscow, Jon Huntsman Jr., said. French Defense Minister Florence Parly said Russia was "warned beforehand." (RFE/RL, 04.16.18. RFE/RL, 04.14.18, The Washington Post, 04.14.18)
  • U.S. Defense Department officials said that American-led strikes against Syria had taken out the ''heart'' of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's chemical weapons program, but acknowledged that the Syrian government most likely retained some ability to again attack its own people with chemical agents. The barrage of missiles by American, French and British forces on April 13  most likely will not stop Assad's chemical weapons program, a Pentagon assessment has concluded, despite Trump's ''Mission Accomplished!'' declaration hours after the strikes. (New York Times, 04.14.18, New York Times, 04.19,.18)
  • NATO said all 29 of its members in the alliance back the air strikes on Syria as a consequence of the Syrian government conducting a suspected chemical attack against civilians. (RFE/RL, 04.16.18)
  • Russia alleges that Syria’s largely antiquated collection of S-125, S-200, Buk, Kvadrat and Osa air defense systems shot down the majority of the incoming air strike. "According to available information, a total of 103 cruise missiles were fired,” Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operations Department said.  “A total of 71 missiles were intercepted." (The National Interest, 04.16.18)
  • Two cruise missiles found unexploded by the Syrian military after the April 13 U.S. missile strike have been handed over to Russia. (TASS, 04.19.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that any additional strikes by Western powers against Syria will "inevitably lead to chaos in international relations." Putin made the remark in an April 15 telephone conversation with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. "The current escalation of the situation around Syria is destructive for the entire system of international relations," Putin said in a statement read by Russia's U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia. (The Washington Post, 04.14.18, RFE/RL, 04.15.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have discussed the situation in Syria in a telephone conversation, the Kremlin says. According to the Kremlin, Putin and Merkel both stressed the importance of an "objective investigation" into the suspected attack in Douma by inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Putin and Merkel also discussed the Nord Stream 2 project, a pipeline running from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany. (RFE/RL, 04.17.18)
  • Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said April 20 that the U.S. military and its allies had avoided Russian “red lines” when conducting airstrikes against Syria last week. “They were notified about where our ‘red lines’ are located, including ‘red lines’ ‘on the ground,’” Lavrov was cited as saying. “The results [of the U.S. air strikes] show that they did not cross these lines,” he added. (The Moscow Times, 04.20.18)
  • Russian ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov strongly denounced the air strikes, saying in a statement that "we have warned that such actions will not remain without consequences." Antonov added that "insulting the Russian president was inadmissible," in an apparent reaction to some of Trump's comments. “The United States, a country that has the largest arsenal of chemical weapons, has no moral right to accuse other countries," Antonov said. (RFE/RL, 04.16.18)
  • The U.N. Security Council rejected a Russian-backed resolution to condemn U.S.-led airstrikes in Syria. Only Russia, China and Bolivia voted for the resolution, which called the airstrikes an aggression against Syria. Eight members opposed the resolution, including the U.S. and European allies. (New York Times, 04.14.18)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has suggested that Moscow might supply high-precision S-300 air-defense missiles to its Bashar al-Assad in the wake of Western air strikes. Senior Russian Defense Ministry official Sergei Rudskoi also said that following the air strikes, Moscow could examine providing S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Syria and other nations. Rudskoi said preliminary information showed that no Syrian civilians or military personnel were killed in the bombardment. (RFE/RL, 04.14.18, RFE/RL, 04.20.18)
  • The Pentagon has said that the number of Russian bots active on social media had increased by 2,000 percent in the wake of the Syria strikes. (Financial Times, 04.17.18)
  • Syrian military sources denied April 16 reports of an early morning missile attack targeting Shayrat air base and said that the defense systems were activated, but that it turned out to be a false alarm. (Haaretz, 04.17.18)
  • “We recognize that the divide between Assad and large parts of the opposition looks almost insurmountable,” a Russian diplomat with experience in three Middle Eastern countries said. “But we do not see an alternative figure that could guarantee stability and territorial integrity.” (Financial Times, 03.16.18)

Cyber security:

  • Russia is using compromised computer-network equipment to attack U.S. and British companies and government agencies, the two countries warned in an unprecedented joint alert. The warning included advice to companies about how to protect themselves and warned specifically of attacks on routers, the devices that channel data around a network. “Once you own the router, you own the traffic,” Jeanette Manfra, assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, said. “Russia is our most capable hostile adversary in cyberspace,” Ciaran Martin, CEO of Britain’s NCSC, said. However, the Kremlin said on April 17 that British and U.S. allegations that Russia was conducting a global cyber espionage campaign lacked any evidence. “From our point of view, these unsubstantiated accusations are utterly devalued,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (Bloomberg, 04.17.18, The Moscow Times, 04.17.18)
  • Twitter said on April 20 that it has banned ads from Moscow-based Kaspersky Lab, saying the cyber-security company’s business model conflicts with advertising rules and citing U.S. government claims that Kaspersky has ties to Russian intelligence agencies. (Reuters, 04.20.18)
  • British government sources said experts had uncovered an increase of up to 4,000 percent in the spread of propaganda from Russia-based social media accounts since the attack on the Skripals—many of which were identifiable as automated bots. (The Guardian, 04.19.18)

Elections interference:

  • The Democratic National Committee filed a multimillion-dollar lawsuit April 20 against the Russian government, the Trump campaign and WikiLeaks alleging a far-reaching conspiracy to disrupt the 2016 campaign and tilt the election to Donald Trump. The complaint, filed in federal district court in Manhattan, alleges that top Trump campaign officials conspired with the Russian government and its military spy agency to hurt Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and help Trump by hacking the computer networks of the Democratic Party and disseminating stolen material found there. (The Washington Post, 04.20.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump had praised James Comey for his honorable conduct during the 2016 campaign, sought out his loyalty and asked the FBI director to let go of an investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn, according to memos Comey wrote to document private conversations. In a newly obtained, redacted cache of personal memos, Comey also recounts Trump complaining about Flynn’s judgments. According to Comey’s memos, Trump said that he was going to sue Christopher Steele, the British ex-spy who compiled an unverified dossier alleging links between Russia and Trump and his associates. Trump claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin told him that Russia had “some of the most beautiful hookers in the world,” according to one of Comey’s memos. “He did not say where Putin had told him this,” Comey wrote. A March 2017 memo states that Trump told Comey he had “a letter from the largest law firm in DC saying he has gotten no income from Russia.” Trump has repeatedly called Comey a liar and disputed the contents of the memos. (Bloomberg, 04.19.18, Bloomberg, 04.19.18, Financial Times, 04.20.18)
  • Former FBI director James Comey said in his first televised interview since being fired that he believed U.S. President Donald Trump was "morally unfit to be president" and that it was "possible" that the Russians had material that could be used to blackmail him. (The Washington Post, 04.16.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump has said that he did not fire James Comey as FBI director in 2017 over the agency's probe into alleged Russian election meddling. The remark seemed to contradict a comment Trump made about his motives two days after he dismissed Comey in May 2017. "In fact, when I decided to just do it [fire Comey], I said to myself, I said, 'You know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made-up story,'" he said at the time. Trump kept up his war of words with Comey on April 20, calling the former FBI director’s new book “third rate,” and suggesting it’s unfair that Comey is profiting. (RFE/RL, 04.18.18, Bloomberg, 04.20.18)
  • McClatchy DC reported April 20 that Robert Mueller has evidence that Michael Cohen, longtime personal attorney for U.S. President Donald Trump, traveled to Prague months before the 2016 election. “Bad reporting, bad information and bad story,” Cohen wrote April 14 in a tweet denying the McClatchy article. Steele’s dossier alleges Cohen used a meeting with a Russian nongovernmental organization as cover to meet with Russian officials during a trip to Prague in August or September 2016. They allegedly discussed a “cover-up and damage limitation operation in an attempt to prevent the full details of Trump’s relationship with Russia being exposed,” and discussed how to make “deniable cash payments” to “Romanian hackers.” (Huffington Post, 04.14.18)
  • Michael Cohen, longtime personal attorney for U.S. President Donald Trump, dropped his defamation lawsuits against BuzzFeed and the investigative firm Fusion GPS over a dossier of information about contacts between Trump and Russia. By dropping the cases, he won’t have to answer detailed questions in the litigation over his own activities. Cohen’s dismissal notices offered no explanation for why he was dropping the cases. (Bloomberg, 04.19.18)
  • Jay Goldberg, one of U.S. President Donald Trump's longtime legal advisers said he warned Trump in a phone call April 13 that Michael Cohen, Trump's personal lawyer and close friend, would turn against the president and cooperate with federal prosecutors if faced with criminal charges. (Wall Street Journal, 04.18.18)
  • A federal judge will consider Donald Trump’s extraordinary request that she block his own Justice Department from viewing evidence about his private lawyer Michael Cohen seized last week in an FBI raid. (Bloomberg, 04.15.18)
  • Deputy U.S. Attorney General Rod Rosenstein may have just saved his job—and that of the lead investigator into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 election campaign—for now. Rosenstein told U.S. President Donald Trump he isn’t a target of any part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiry or a separate probe into his longtime lawyer, Michael Cohen. The assurance—volunteered during a White House meeting last week—helped dampen the president’s ardor to fire either man. Trump told advisers afterwards that it’s not the right time to remove Rosenstein or Mueller. (Bloomberg, 04.20.18)
  • Two of U.S. President Donald Trump's top legislative allies, Reps. Mark Meadows and Jim Jordan, met with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein this week to press him for more documents about the conduct of law enforcement officials involved in the Russia probe and the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server. (The Washington Post, 04.20.18)
  • Special counsel Robert Mueller’s interest in former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort stemmed in part from his suspected role as a “back channel” between the campaign and Russians intent on meddling in the election. The disclosure by U.S. prosecutors came April 19 during a hearing on whether Mueller exceeded his authority in indicting Manafort on charges of laundering millions of dollars while acting as an unregistered agent of the Ukrainian government. (Bloomberg, 04.19.18)
  • Federal prosecutors are examining whether they have sufficient evidence to open a criminal investigation into Andrew McCabe, the former FBI deputy director, after a Justice Department inspector general report repeatedly faulted him for misleading investigators. The inquiry is certain to add to an already corrosive atmosphere pitting McCabe and other current and former law enforcement officials against U.S. President Donald Trump. The president has accused them of concocting a baseless investigation into possible links between his associates and Russia's election interference. (New York Times, 04.19.18)
  • The Washington Post was awarded the Pulitzer Prize on April 16 for its investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election. The Russia-related stories shared the Pulitzer for national reporting with the New York Times, which was recognized for its work on the same topic. (The Washington Post, 04.17.18)
  • Republican Senate candidates in competitive primary races have begun to call for an end to the special counsel's investigation of Russian tampering in the 2016 election, breaking from congressional GOP leaders. (The Washington Post, 04.17.18)
  • Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani joined U.S. President Donald Trump’s personal legal team, adding a trusted ally and veteran prosecutor to a group that has struggled to attract and retain top talent. (Bloomberg, 04.19.18)

Energy exports:

  • Oil officials from Russia and Saudi Arabia will meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, this weekend, ostensibly to review compliance among the 24 oil producers who agreed in December 2016 to join Riyadh and Moscow in the production cuts. They are also expected to discuss the future of the pact, set to expire later this year. U.S. President Donald Trump railed against the OPEC oil cartel on April 20, declaring that the group had “artificially” raised prices and warning that such efforts would “not be accepted!” (Wall Street Journal, 04.19.18, New York Times, 04.20.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump on April 16 put the brakes on a preliminary plan to impose additional economic sanctions on Russia, walking back an April 15 announcement by U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley that the Kremlin had swiftly denounced as "international economic raiding." Administration officials said April 16 that it was unlikely Trump would approve any additional sanctions without another triggering event by Russia. Sometime after Haley's comments, the Trump administration notified the Russian Embassy in Washington that the sanctions were not in fact coming, a Russian Foreign Ministry official said. (The Washington Post, 04.17.18, The Moscow Times, 04.17.18)
  • After U.S. sanctions crippled an entire Russian industry and air strikes in Syria threatened the first direct clash between nuclear superpowers since the Cold War, Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to dial down the tension. Putin wants to give U.S. President Donald Trump another chance to make good on pledges to improve ties and avoid escalation. The Kremlin has reportedly ordered officials to curb their anti-U.S. rhetoric. The relatively limited nature of the weekend attacks in Syria was seen as a positive sign in the Kremlin, considering Trump’s ominous tweets announcing missiles would soon be flying. The decision explains why lawmakers April 16 suddenly pulled a draft law that would’ve imposed sweeping counter-sanctions on U.S. companies.  (Bloomberg, 04.18.18)
  • Russia slowed moves on a sweeping proposal for anti-American economic retaliation unveiled by lawmakers last week, even as the U.S. plans another round of sanctions over the Kremlin’s backing of the Syrian government. “We will organize meetings with the business community, with companies,” Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house of parliament, said, announcing the initial vote on the plan would be delayed until May 15. According to Valentina Matvienko, the speaker of the Russian upper house of parliament, Moscow's response to U.S. sanctions will be targeted and painful. (Bloomberg, 04.17.18, The Moscow Times, 04.18.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump invited Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to the U.S. during a phone call and said he would be glad to see Putin in the White House and then would be happy to meet again in a reciprocal visit to Russia, RIA Novosti reported on April 20, citing the Russian Foreign Ministry. The news agency quoted Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying Trump returned to the subject of an invitation a couple of times during a call last month and that Russia was now expecting Trump to formalize the invitation. (Reuters, 04.20.18, Bloomberg, 04.20.18)
  • John Bolton, the new U.S. national security adviser, met with Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. at the White House on April 19 and raised concerns about Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. Bolton told Ambassador Anatoly Antonov that better relations would “require addressing our concerns regarding Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, the reckless use of a chemical weapon in the United Kingdom and the situations in Ukraine and Syria.” (Bloomberg, 04.19.18)
  • On March 23, aides briefed U.S. President Donald Trump on the administration's plan to expel 60 Russian diplomats and suspected spies. The U.S., they explained, would be ousting roughly the same number of Russians as its European allies. “We’ll match their numbers," Trump reportedly instructed. "We're not taking the lead. We're matching.” The next day, to his shock and dismay, France and Germany were each expelling only four Russian officials. Trump was furious that his administration was being portrayed in the media as taking by far the toughest stance on Russia. (The Washington Post, 04.16.18)
  • U.S. sanctions on Russian oligarchs that sent the ruble tumbling and roiled metals markets had the effect the Trump administration wanted, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. He didn’t rule out additional financial penalties, saying the administration “is not afraid to use these tools—we will use these tools—but we’re not going to broadcast to the world our exact thinking.” (Bloomberg, 04.19.18)
  • Boeing buys about 35 percent of its titanium, which is used extensively in the 787 Dreamliner, from VSMPO-Avisma, the Russian state monopoly that controls titanium production. The company warned in a statement that a ban on sales of titanium to the U.S. could adversely affect 20,000 employees and the economy as a whole. (New York Times, 04.17.18)
  • Goldman Sachs says that the extraordinary rally in aluminum unleashed by U.S. sanctions against United Co. Rusal may have way, way further to go, forecasting the metal may spike to $3,000 a metric ton, while raising the possibility of further curbs against Russian coal supplies. The $3,000 target is 25 percent above the April 17 close, and almost 50 percent above the price before the curbs. (Bloomberg, 04.18.18)
  • German leaders want the Trump administration to exempt their country's companies from tough new U.S. sanctions on Russia. During a visit to Washington this week, Germany's finance minister will push for special treatment and Chancellor Angela Merkel is planning to raise the issue with U.S. President Donald Trump when the two meet later this month. German industrial giants including Siemens AG, Daimler AG and Volkswagen AG do business with entities tied to people subject to the sanctions. (Wall Street Journal, 04.18.18)
  • Nearly 7 in 10 Americans support tougher U.S. sanctions against Russia, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that also finds roughly half the public saying U.S. President Donald Trump has done "too little" to criticize Russia for alleged violations of international law. (The Washington Post, 04.17.18)
  • Russia has said the U.S. is deliberately making it difficult for crews from Aeroflot, the only airline with direct flights from the U.S. to Russia, to get U.S. visas and that it is concerned by the situation. The Russian Foreign Ministry warned that the sharp reduction in the number of U.S. entry visas issued to Russian citizens might lead to the suspension of regular flights between the two countries. (BBC, 04.20.18)
  • Russia has sent a request to the World Trade Organization on April 19 to hold consultations with the U.S. for its decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. (Financial Times, 04.19.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • There are 29 more Russian billionaires today than two years ago despite geopolitical tensions between Moscow and the West and economic sanctions, Russian Forbes said in its new list for 2018. Forbes' ranking suggested that Russia’s wealthiest people lost an estimated $12 billion in one day last week after seven Russian oligarchs were added to a U.S. sanctions blacklist over “malign activities.” (The Moscow Times, 04.19.18)
  • Rating agency Moody's Investors Service said on April 18 Russia's strong public and external finances would shield its economy from the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions. However, the sanctions will be credit negative for some Russian debt issuers, especially Russian aluminum giant Rusal. (Reuters, 04.19.18)
  • The ruble has lost over 7 percent against the dollar this month, the worst performance in emerging markets. (Bloomberg, 04.19.18)
  • Russia’s central bank is backing down from its guidance for faster cuts in interest rates this year after the latest round of U.S. sanctions jolted the ruble and threatened to touch off inflation. (Bloomberg, 04.19.18)
  • A temporary nationalization of Russian aluminum producer Rusal is one of many options being discussed to support the company hit by U.S. sanctions. (Financial Times, 04.19.18)
  • The production of specialized work clothes, including bulletproof vests, is one of the lone growth areas in the economy, up by 27 percent. The comments came at an otherwise gloomy news conference April 17 focused on Russia’s economic prospects. (New York Times, 04.17.18)
  • The popular Telegram messaging service has shown no signs of losing its users after Russia banned the app in Russia, while dozens of other online services across Russia have suffered accessibility issues. Russia’s media regulator Roskomnadzor has blocked more than 18 million IP addresses in an effort to squeeze Telegram out of Russia, the Bell news website reported late April 17. The number had declined to 16 million blocked IP addresses by early April 18. Despite the mass crackdown, Telegram’s statistics showed growth in total readership and subscriptions to Russian-language channels in the 48 hours since the ban. (The Moscow Times, 04.18.18)
    • The United States has expressed its “deep concern” about what it called the “continued trend of restricted freedom of expression” in Russia, after Russian authorities limited access to the messaging app Telegram. Harry Kamian, the new charge d’affaires of the U.S. to the OSCE, made the comments in an April 19 statement to the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna, three days after Russian media regulator Roskomnadzor started blocking access to Telegram. (RFE/RL, 04.19.18)
    • Russia’s attempts to ban access to the Telegram messaging service threaten to drag U.S. tech giants including Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com into the war with founder Pavel Durov as he turns to proxy servers to bypass the blocking measures. Russian media regulator Roskomnadzor has already blocked 18 Google and Amazon sub-networks that Telegram used to avoid restrictions, the watchdog’s head Alexander Zharov said. Russian regulators have blocked more than 2 million Google and Amazon IP addresses after a court ruled to ban access to Telegram. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.18, Bloomberg, 04.18.18)
    • Russia’s security services reportedly targeted Telegram over its plans to launch a virtual currency that could undermine Russia’s ability to control its financial system. Telegram launched the world's biggest initial coin offering (ICO) in 2018, raising a reported $1.7 billion for a new cryptocurrency called “Gram” since February. (The Moscow Times, 04.20.18)
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Internet adviser has recommended for Russia’s media regulator to apologize for wreaking havoc while trying to block Telegram in the country. (The Moscow Times, 04.19.18)
    • Pussy Riot band member Maria Alyokhina has been ordered to perform 100 hours of community service for throwing paper planes outside the Federal Security Service headquarters in Moscow in support of Telegram. (The Moscow Times, 04.18.18)
  • Eighty-six percent of Russians polled by the Levada Center have said that they are unwilling to take part in political protests. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.18)
  • Among Russians polled by the Levada Center, 85 percent said they watch television for news about Russia and the world. Meanwhile, 60 percent said they use social media for the news, one-third of whom use social media daily or near-daily. A majority, or 51 percent, said they trust television news the most. (The Moscow Times, 04.18.18)
  • Half of the shopping malls inspected across Russia in the wake of the deadly fire in Siberia have been found to be operating with violations. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.18)
  • Russian investigative authorities have revised the death toll in a fire at a shopping mall in the Siberian city of Kemerovo down to 60, from 64. (RFE/RL, 04.20.18)
  • Deaths from alcohol poisoning have declined by a quarter last year following steps to mitigate the aftermath of counterfeit alcohol consumption. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.18)
  • Russian investigative journalist Maksim Borodin of Yekaterinburg has died of injuries sustained on April 12 when he fell from the window of his fifth-floor apartment. In recent weeks, he wrote extensively about the deaths in February of Russian mercenaries fighting in Syria. (RFE/RL, 04.16.18)
    • The U.S. has joined media watchdogs in calling on Russian authorities to thoroughly investigate Borodin’s death. (RFE/RL, 04.19.18)
  • A Moscow court has extended the house arrest of theater and film director Kirill Serebrennikov for three months, meaning he likely will not be able to attend the Cannes Film Festival next month. One of his films, Leto (Summer), will compete for the prestigious Palme d'Or prize at the Cannes event May 8-19. (RFE/RL, 04.19.18)
  • Head of the Moscow region’s Serpukhov district Alexander Shestun—who is opposing a toxic landfill outside Moscow—has complained to Russian President Vladimir Putin about receiving death threats from senior officials in the Kremlin administration and security services. (The Moscow Times, 04.20.18)
  • A Russian government agency tasked with promoting the country’s image abroad has launched a program to encourage Russian students studying in Britain and other “unfriendly countries” to return home. Rossotrudnichestvo announced on April 16 the launch of the “Highly Likely Welcome Back” program to encourage the 60,000 Russians that are estimated to be studying abroad to continue their studies back home. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.18)
  • A London court ordered the seizure of a luxury $492 million yacht owned by a Russian billionaire as judges sought to enforce one of the largest divorce payouts in U.K. history. The court ruled that Farkhad Akhmedov should transfer ownership of the 115 meter (380 foot) MV Luna to his wife, Tatiana Akhmedova. (Bloomberg, 04.18.18)

Defense and aerospace:

  • "Between 70 and 100 ships and supply vessels of the Russian Navy ensure [Russia's] naval presence in the World Ocean at different times," Russian Navy commander Adm. Vladimir Korolyov said. (Interfax, 04.20.18)
  • The Tupolev aircraft company will begin producing trial models of the next-generation long-range aviation system (PAK DA) in early 2019, Tupolev CEO Alexander Konyukhov told Interfax. (Interfax, 04.19.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Valery Pshenichny, a Russian entrepreneur suspected of defrauding the Russian military, was reportedly raped and tortured to death inside his jail cell in St. Petersburg while on pre-trial detention, a forensic examination has said. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.18)
  • A Russian teenager stabbed a teacher and his classmate, set a classroom on fire and caused mass panic at a public school in southern Russia on April 18. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.18)
  • The trial of a man accused of stabbing an Ekho Moskvy radio journalist in the neck last year has kicked off in Moscow. Addressing the court on April 18, Boris Grits admitted that he stabbed Tatyana Felgengauer three times—to the neck, the head and a hand. (RFE/RL, 04.18.18)
  • The Russian government has cut its federal prison financing program by nearly half, from 96.5 billion rubles ($1.5 billion) to 55 billion rubles ($890 million). Over 600,000 people are housed in 962 correctional facilities and detention centers. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Senior figures from the global chemical weapons watchdog have flatly rejected Russian claims that the watchdog’s laboratories had found a Western military chemical agent in the poison that incapacitated the Russian double agent Sergei Skripal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that a Swiss laboratory used by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had discovered traces in the sample of the nerve agent BWZ and its precursors. The nerve agent is possessed by NATO countries, but not Russia. The Russian Embassy in London said it was “highly likely” that BWZ had therefore been used in Salisbury, adding that the OPCW and the British had questions to answer. The Russian claim was refuted by OPCW officials, who explained that BWZ had been used in the control sample, not the sample itself. It is also a breach of OPCW procedures to identify a laboratory involved in a test. (The Guardian, 04.18.18)
  • The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized countries have called on Russia to provide "full and complete disclosure" about the poisoning of the Skripals in Britain last month. (RFE/RL, 04.16.18)
  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Russia deems “any” lab tests of the Skripal samples as “strange.” (The Moscow Times, 04.19.18)
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the “foreseeable future” after military strikes in Syria widened a rift between Russia and the West. Merkel made the proposal after speaking by phone with Putin on April 17, when they discussed Syria as well as the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. “I think the number of issues we have in front of us, from Ukraine to gas to the very big issues over Syria, requires us to have a direct exchange in the foreseeable future,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin. (Bloomberg, 04.17.18)
  • German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has voiced concern over the growing "alienation" between Russia and the West and called for renewed diplomatic efforts to mend the damaged ties. (RFE/RL, 04.15.18)
  • The U.K.’s media regulator has opened seven new investigations into whether Kremlin-funded news channel RT is a “fit and proper” broadcaster, due to concerns about the impartiality of its shows since the Salisbury attack. (Financial Times, 04.18.18)
  • Russia’s state-owned Sberbank PJSC and VTB Group are on the verge of taking a substantial equity stake of Croatia’s biggest retailer, Agrokor d.d, expanding Moscow’s reach in a corner of the EU that has for years tried to fend off Russian investment. (Bloomberg, 04.20.18)

China:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump accused China and Russia of devaluing their currencies, opening a new front in his argument that foreign governments are taking advantage of the U.S. economy to support their own expansions. The accusations were a “warning shot” about the consequences about devaluation, rather than part of a wish to achieve a weaker dollar, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. (Bloomberg, 04.16.18, Bloomberg, 04.17.18)

Ukraine:

  • The U.N. predicts a 36 percent and a 51 percent decline in the population of Ukraine and Moldova by the end of the century, respectively. Russia, meanwhile, is expected to lose 13 percent by 2100. (Bloomberg, 04.20.18)
  • Ukraine said on April 17 one of its soldiers has been killed and five wounded in clashes in the country's east. (RFE/RL, 04.17.18)
  • When U.S. President Donald Trump approved sale of antitank missiles to Ukraine last year, he did so on the condition that the move be kept quiet and made without a formal news release. (The Washington Post, 04.16.18)
  • Ukrainian lawmakers have backed Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's appeal to the worldwide head of the Orthodox Church to recognize the Ukrainian Orthodox Church's independence from Moscow. (RFE/RL, 04.19.18)
  • Ukrainian national Yevhen Panov pleaded not guilty to sabotage charges as a Russia-imposed court in annexed Crimea started his trial on April 16. (RFE/RL, 04.16.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • More than 180 people were detained in the Armenian capital as police tried to stop opposition supporters from blocking streets in protest against the election of former President Serzh Sarkisian as prime minister. Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets of Yerevan for an eighth straight day on April 20, opposing what they say is Sarkisian's attempt to maintain his grip on power after his 10-year stint as president ended two weeks ago. (RFE/RL, 04.20.18)
  • Authoritarian leader Ilham Aliyev has been sworn in to a fourth term as president of Azerbaijan after a landslide victory in an election boycotted by opponents and criticized by international observers. (RFE/RL, 04.18.18)
  • Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov has dismissed the government, hours after lawmakers passed a no-confidence motion against the cabinet of Prime Minister Sapar Isakov, amid an apparent power struggle between Jeenbekov and his predecessor, Almazbek Atambaev. (RFE/RL, 04.19.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • No significant developments.