This Week’s Highlights

• While announcing his first sanctions against Russia two days after his conversation with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Joe Biden noted on April 15 that he “could have gone further, but chose not to do so” and asserted that “now is the time to de-escalate.” In spite of these conciliatory remarks and the fact that Russian markets seemed to have shrugged off the U.S. sanctions, Putin’s diplomats announced a raft of punitive measures against the U.S. on April 16, while also suggesting that U.S. Ambassador in Moscow John Sullivan pack his bags and leave, if only temporarily. 
• Russia sees the United States as its “adversary,” a top Russian Foreign Ministry official said April 13. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s words mark a departure from Russia’s usual description of the U.S. as a “partner.”
• A senior Biden administration official said the U.S. was not taking any countermeasures in view of a U.S. intelligence assessment that concluded with only “low to moderate confidence” that Russian intelligence officers paid the Taliban to attack U.S. and allied personnel in Afghanistan in 2019.
• The United States has canceled this week's planned deployment of two warships to the Black Sea, Turkish officials and media said April 14. Earlier, the Russian Navy had launched drills in the Black Sea ahead of the two U.S. warships’ planned arrival.
• The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community said: “We assess that Russia does not want a direct conflict with U.S. forces.” The assessment also said that “Moscow is well positioned to increase its role in the Caucasus, intervene in Belarus if it deems necessary and continue destabilization efforts against Ukraine.”
• Pentagon officials say the current intelligence does not indicate that Russia’s land force is prepared for offensive operations against Ukraine in the next few days, because there is no evidence of the logistics, spare parts, fuel and medical capability that would need to be pre-positioned.  

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community said: “Terrorists remain interested in using chemical and biological agents in attacks against U.S. interests and possibly the U.S. homeland.” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 04.13.21)
• Two men have been apprehended in Georgia for attempting to sell a radioactive substance. Georgia's State Security Service said on April 16 that the two suspects were detained in Kutaisi, while trying to sell Americium-241, a radioactive isotope of the chemical element Americium, for 300,000 euros. (RFE/RL, 04.16.21)
• Russia is waiting for detailed explanations from Japan regarding all aspects of its planned discharge of water from the accident-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, said. (TASS, 04.13.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The six-sided format used for talks on the Korean Peninsula nuclear problem between 2003 and 2009 will unavoidably be in demand again, Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora said. (TASS, 04.14.21)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iranian officials say the country has begun enriching uranium up to 60 percent purity, higher than it has ever done before, despite ongoing talks between Tehran and world powers to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said his country's decision to boost uranium enrichment is a response to Israel's "nuclear terrorism" against the Natanz facility. (RFE/RL, 04.16.21, BBC, 04.16.21)
  • The Western members of the joint commission held negotiations in Vienna to stress the impermissibility of Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 60 percent purity, Russia’s envoy to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, said. (TASS, 04.16.21)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said April 14 that Tehran's "provocative" announcement on enrichment "calls into question Iran's seriousness with regard [to] the nuclear talks." (RFE/RL, 04.16.21)
  • Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement but multiple Israeli media outlets quoted unnamed intelligence sources as saying that the country's Mossad spy service carried out a successful sabotage operation at the Natanz site. Lawmaker Alireza Zakani, who heads the research center of Iran's parliament, said in an interview that "several thousand centrifuges were damaged and destroyed." (RFE/RL, 04.16.21)
• The U.S. intelligence community reported April 13 that Iran "is not currently undertaking" key activities necessary to produce a nuclear weapon, affirming an earlier judgment by the spy agencies. (The Washington Post, 04.13.21)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused the EU of undermining efforts to revive an international nuclear deal with Iran by imposing sanctions on Tehran officials over alleged serious human rights abuses. (Financial Times, 04.13.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community said: “Russia is pushing back against Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force. … Russia will continue to develop its military, nuclear, space, cyber and intelligence capabilities, while actively engaging abroad and leveraging its energy resources, to advance its agenda and undermine the United States. We expect Moscow to seek opportunities for pragmatic cooperation with Washington on its own terms, and we assess that Russia does not want a direct conflict with U.S. forces.” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 04.13.21)
• A senior administration official said the U.S. was not taking any countermeasures in view of a U.S. intelligence assessment that concluded with only “low to moderate confidence” that Russian intelligence officers paid the Taliban to attack U.S. and allied personnel in Afghanistan in 2019 and perhaps earlier. The official said the U.S. would instead issue “strong direct messages” to Moscow. (Financial Times, 04.15.21, Wall Street Journal, 04.15.21)
• The United States has canceled this week's planned deployment of two warships to the Black Sea, Turkish officials and media said April 14. Earlier, the Russian Navy had launched drills in the Black Sea ahead of the two U.S. warships’ planned arrival. (The Moscow Times, 04.14.21, AFP, 04.15.21)
• The United States will increase its military presence in Germany by about 500 personnel to better defend Europe, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a visit to the country April 13. The statement reverses the previous administration’s plans to withdraw up to 12,000 of the roughly 36,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany. (New York Times, 04.13.21)
• NATO’s Defender-Europe 21 military exercises are taking place in Europe and Africa. They began in March and involve almost 30,000 troops from 26 countries. The exercises, which will run into June, are taking place in various countries, including Estonia—which shares a border with Russia—Bulgaria and Romania. (RFE/RL, 04.14.21)
• NATO will concentrate 40,000 troops and 15,000 items of armament and military hardware near Russian borders, basically in the Black Sea and Baltic regions, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on April 13. The American troops are now redeploying from continental North America to Europe through the Atlantic, Shoigu said. (TASS, 04.13.21)
• Moscow has sent troops to its Western borders for "training exercises" in response to "threatening" NATO actions, Shoigu said April 13. “Over three weeks, two armies and three airborne units were successfully deployed to the western borders of the Russian Federation in areas for performing combat training exercises," he said. (AFP, 04.13.21)
• Russia sees the U.S. as its “adversary,” a top Foreign Ministry official said April 13. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s words mark a departure from Russia’s usual description of the U.S. as a “partner.” “The United States is our adversary, doing everything to undermine Russia's position on the international stage; we see no other aspects in their approach toward us,” he said. (The Moscow Times, 04.13.21)
• Britain on April 15 said it had summoned the Russian ambassador in the U.K. to express its deep concern at what it called Moscow's "pattern of malign activity." The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said that included "cyber intrusions, interference in democratic processes, and the build-up of military forces near the Ukrainian border and in illegally annexed Crimea." (AFP, 04.16.21)
• Poland has ordered three Russian diplomats to leave the embassy in Warsaw in what it said was an act of solidarity with the U.S. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it would expel five Polish diplomats in response. (RFE/RL, 04.16.21, Russia Matters, 04.16.21)
• A Russian MiG-31 fighter jet intercepted a U.S. Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint strategic reconnaissance aircraft over the Pacific Ocean in the Kamchatka region, Russia’s National Defense Control Center reported April 9. (Defense Blog, 04.10.21)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community puts China's push for ''global power'' first on the list of threats, followed by Russia, Iran and North Korea. The report also said: “China’s increasing cooperation with Russia on areas of complementary interest includes defense and economic cooperation.” (New York Times, 04.31.21).

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• “There are also areas where Russia and the United States can and should work together. For example, in the earliest days of my administration, we were able to move quickly to extend, for five years, the New START Treaty,” U.S. President Joe Biden said April 15. “The United States and Russia could launch a strategic stability dialogue to pursue cooperation in arms control and security. We can address critical global challenges that require Russia and the United States to work together, including reining in nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea, ending this pandemic globally and meeting the existential crisis of climate change,” he said. (The White House, 04.15.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community said: “We assess that ISIS and al-Qaeda remain the greatest Sunni terrorist threats to U.S. interests overseas; they also seek to conduct attacks inside the United States, although sustained U.S. and allied CT pressure has broadly degraded their capability to do so. U.S.-based lone actors and small cells with a broad range of ideological motivations pose a greater immediate domestic threat.” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 04.13.21)

Conflict in Syria:

• Russian and Turkish servicemen carried out a joint patrolling mission near the city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria’s Al Hasakah governorate April 8, the head of the Russian convoy, Col. Andrei Titov, said. It involved over 50 servicemen, along with about 10 vehicles and air support aircraft. (TASS, 04.10.21)
• Russia’s Wagner group is preparing to send 300 Syrian fighters from the Assad regime-controlled Deir el-Zour to fight alongside Libyan putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar, security sources stated April 12. (Daily Sabah, 04.12.21)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have discussed Syria, Libya and settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh in a phone call, the Kremlin said on April 9. "When discussing the situation in Syria, the important role played by Russia and Turkey in stabilizing the situation and establishing intra-Syrian talks was emphasized," the press service said. (Interfax, 04.09.21)
• Russia hopes the issue of Syria’s reinstatement as an Arab League member will be settled quite soon, Lavrov said April 12 after talks with his Egyptian counterpart. (TASS, 04.12.21)
• The global chemical weapons watchdog has “reasonable grounds to believe” that Syria’s air force dropped a chlorine bomb on a residential neighborhood in the rebel-controlled Idlib region in February 2018. (Al Jazeera, 04.12.21)

Cyber security:

• Biden said on April 15: “I told him [Putin] that we would shortly be responding in a measured and proportionate way because we had concluded that they had interfered in the election and SolarWinds was totally out of the—inappropriate.” In addition to the Treasury sanctions, the Justice Department announced it is probing Russian technology firms more broadly to determine whether any pose a risk to U.S. information and communications technology. (The Washington Post, 04.16.21, The White House, 04.15.21) See also “U.S.-Russian relations in general” section.
• Russia's foreign intelligence service, the SVR, on April 15 dismissed U.S. claims that it was involved in cyber attacks on U.S. infrastructure as "nonsense" after Washington imposed sanctions on Moscow. (AFP, 04.16.21)

Elections interference:

• A longtime associate of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign chief Paul Manafort gave Russian intelligence agencies “sensitive information on polling and campaign strategy” during the election that year, the U.S. Treasury Department said. Manafort’s associate, Konstantin Kilimnik, “also sought to promote the narrative that Ukraine, not Russia, had interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election,” the department said April 15 as the Biden administration announced new sanctions on Russia, Kilimnik and others. (NBC, 04.15.21) See also “U.S.-Russian relations in general” section.

Energy exports from CIS:

• “Nord Stream 2 is a complicated issue affecting our allies in Europe... [it] is an issue that is in play,” Biden said. (The White House, 04.15.21)
• From Jan. 1 to April 15, 2021, Gazprom increased gas production by 12 percent. Gas exports to non-CIS countries since the beginning of the year have grown by 28.4 percent. (TASS, 04.16.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The White House’s readout of the Biden-Putin April 13 call said:
  • “They discussed a number of regional and global issues, including the intent of the United States and Russia to pursue a strategic stability dialogue on a range of arms control and emerging security issues, building on the extension of the New START Treaty.”
  • “President Biden also made clear that the United States will act firmly in defense of its national interests in response to Russia’s actions, such as cyber intrusions and election interference.”
  •  President Biden emphasized the United States’ unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The President voiced our concerns over the sudden Russian military build-up in occupied Crimea and on Ukraine’s borders, and called on Russia to de-escalate tensions.”
  • “President Biden reaffirmed his goal of building a stable and predictable relationship with Russia consistent with U.S. interests, and proposed a summit meeting in a third country in the coming months.”
• The Kremlin’s readout of the Putin-Biden April 13 call said:
  • “Biden confirmed the previously transmitted invitation to the President of Russia to take part in the virtual Leaders Summit on Climate, which will be held on April 22–23.”
  • “Both presidents expressed their willingness to continue the dialogue on the critical areas of ensuring global security.”
  • “Joseph Biden expressed interest in normalizing the state of affairs on the bilateral track and establishing stable and predictable interaction on pressing matters such as ensuring strategic stability and arms control, Iran’s nuclear program, the situation in Afghanistan and global climate change.”
  • “In this context, the U.S. president suggested considering the possibility of holding a personal summit meeting in the foreseeable future.”
  • “When exchanging views on the internal Ukrainian crisis, Vladimir Putin outlined approaches to a political settlement based on the Minsk Package of Measures.”
    • Putin spoke quickly on April 13 with Finland's President Sauli Niinisto, who said in a statement that the two had discussed the call with Biden and "the planned meeting of the two presidents." Finland hosted the last summit between Russian and U.S. leaders in 2018 when Putin met with Trump. (AFP, 04.14.21)

• On April 15, Biden imposed new sanctions against Russia, blaming Russia’s foreign intelligence service SVR for the SolarWinds hack and accusing individuals and organizations of interfering in recent U.S. elections, in a sharp escalation of Washington’s confrontation with Moscow. This is the first sanctions action against Russia taken by Biden. (Financial Times, 04.15.21, The Moscow Times, 04.15.21)  The sanctions include:
  • A ban on U.S. financial institutions trading in newly issued Russian state debt, known as OFZs, and bonds issued by the Russian central bank and National Wealth Fund. The ban affects debt issued after June 14. (Financial Times, 04.15.21)
    • U.S. banks and investors will still be able to hold on to any Russian state bonds they already own, and have not been prohibited from trading in the secondary market—meaning they can still buy, sell and hold Russian government debt, just not take place directly in bond auctions organized by Russia’s Finance Ministry, Central Bank or National Wealth Fund. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.21)
  • The expulsion of 10 diplomats from the Russian embassy in Washington D.C., a group that the U.S. alleges “includes representatives of Russian intelligence services.” (The Moscow Times, 04.15.21)
  • Sanctions on 32 individuals and organizations accused of interfering in recent U.S. elections, and six Russian technology companies alleged to support the country’s intelligence services, in view of the SolarWinds hack. The U.S. formally named SVR actors “also known as APT 29, Cozy Bear and The Dukes” as responsible for SolarWinds. Among the sanctioned outfits were also a host of entities controlled by “Putin’s Chef” Yevgeny Prigozhin. (Financial Times, 04.15.21, The Moscow Times, 04.15.21)
  • Among the sanctioned entities are three companies involved in constructing the Kerch bridge as well as five Crimean government officials, including the head of the FSB security agency and the Investigative Committee on the peninsula. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.21)
  • “When I spoke to President Putin, I expressed my belief that communication between the two of us, personally and directly, was to be essential in moving forward to a more effective relationship. And he agreed on that point. To that end, I proposed that we meet in person this summer in Europe, for a summit to address a range of issues facing both of our countries ... Now is the time to de-escalate. The way forward is through thoughtful dialogue and diplomatic process,” Biden said in his April 15 statement on Russia. “I was clear with President Putin that we could have gone further, but I chose not to do so, to be—I chose to be proportionate … We want a stable, predictable relationship,” Biden said when announcing the sanctions. (The White House, 04.15.21)
    • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on April 16 said that Putin has long talked about the importance of normalizing relations between Moscow and Washington. "He has repeatedly said that we are ready to develop our dialogue to the degree that our counterparts are ready for this," he said. "It is indeed good that the points of view of the two heads of state coincide on this." (AFP, 04.16.21)   
  • The White House said the new sanctions package would “impose costs for Russian government actions that seek to harm us,” but a senior administration official said the measures were intended to be “proportionate,” taken solely in view of past actions and to avoid escalation. The official added that some U.S. responses would “remain unseen.” (Financial Times, 04.15.21)
• On April 16, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a statement on Russia’s response to the new U.S. sanctions. According to the statement, which Lavrov affirmed at an April 16 press conference, the Russian government will: 
  • Ask 10 U.S. diplomats to leave.
  • Curb the State Department’s practice of sending U.S. diplomats on short-term assignments to the U.S. embassy in Moscow. Only 10 individuals would be allowed to do so per year on condition that the same is allowed for the Russian embassy in Washington. 
  • Ban the U.S. diplomatic mission in Russia from employing citizens of Russia and third countries for administrative and technical positions. 
  • “Due to systematic violations by the U.S. diplomatic missions of the rules for travel within the Russian Federation, the 1992 bilateral Memorandum of Understanding regarding the ‘open land’ is terminated.” 
  • Activities of U.S. foundations and NGOs that are controlled by the State Department and other American government agencies in Russia will be stopped.
  • “Obviously, the current extremely tense situation implies an objective need for the ambassadors of both our countries to be in their capitals to analyze the situation and hold consultations.” 
  • “Names of eight current and former American high-ranking officials and figures involved in the development and implementation of the anti-Russian course will soon be published on the official portal of the Russian Foreign Ministry. They are barred from entering the Russian Federation on an indefinite basis.” 
  • “Now is the time for [the] U.S. to show prudence by abandoning its confrontational course. Otherwise, a set of decisions that would be painful for the American side will be implemented, such as, for example, an order to reduce the U.S. diplomatic mission [in Russia] to 300 people … this will establish a real parity in bilateral missions abroad, since so far, when determining the U.S. quota of 455 employees, we count 155 people sent to our Permanent Mission to the U.N. in New York.” 
  • Before the Foreign Ministry announced the sanctions, U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan was summoned to the Foreign Ministry for what spokesperson Maria Zakharova said would be “a difficult conversation.” The Foreign Ministry said April 15 a Russian response was “inevitable.” Additionally, Putin chaired a meeting of Russia's Security Council on April 16 as Moscow moved quickly to respond to U.S. sanctions and expulsions of diplomats. Peskov said April 16 Putin would retaliate to the sanctions, but added that it was "good" that Biden was seeking dialogue with his Russian counterpart. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.21, The Washington Post, 04.16.21, RFE/RL, 04.16.21)
  • SVR head Sergei Naryshkin said April 16 the U.S. sanctions eroded global security, as he played up Russia's view of its role in global stability as what he called one of the world's two "great powers." (The Washington Post, 04.16.21)
  • Russian financial markets have shrugged off the latest round of sanctions announced by the U.S. The ruble—which saw trading volumes five times higher than usual ahead of the sanctions announcement—recovered two days of losses to stand at 75.8 against the dollar during trading in Moscow on April 16. The RTS stock market also added more than 1 percent on April 16 morning to cap what has turned into a strong week for the dollar-denominated index, climbing more than 5 percent in total over the last five sessions. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.21)
    • Russia is not reliant on international investors to raise capital. In 2020, non-residents purchased only $5 billion of the $73 billion issued in government bonds, and their share of outstanding government debt has fallen to its lowest level in five years, below 20 percent. “Fundamentally, a ban on foreign participation in new bond issues is not a threat to Russia’s financial stability as the state debt is low,” said ING’s chief Russia economist Dmitry Dolgin. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.21)

• Biden will withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan over the coming months, completing the military exit by the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks that first drew the U.S. into its longest war. The U.S. will ask other countries, including Russia, China, India and Pakistan to do more to support Afghanistan, Biden said in his speech April 14. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, after meeting April 14 with Blinken and Austin, announced at a news conference that about 7,000 NATO troops would be withdrawn. (The Washington Post, 04.13.21, TASS, 04.14.21)
  • Russia said April 14 that Washington's plan to pull out troops from Afghanistan by September could lead to an escalation of the long-running conflict and derail peace talks. (AFP, 04.14.21, VOA, 04.14.21)
• Vartan Gregorian, president of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, which is long committed to improving U.S.-Russian relations, died suddenly on April 15, 2021, in New York City at age 87. Gregorian has been an international luminary, legendary educator, distinguished historian and humanities scholar, and recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom. In 2015, he co-founded the Aurora Humanitarian Initiative on behalf of the survivors of the Armenian Genocide. (Carnegie Corporation of New York, 04.16.21, Public Radio of Armenia, 04.16.21)
• The U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty outlet has offered some of its staff the opportunity to leave Russia as it faces crippling “foreign agent” fines, BBC Russia reported April 14. The move comes after Russia fined RFE/RL nearly $1 million for violating tagging requirements related to its “foreign agent” designation. Russia’s newly tightened “foreign agents” law could also lead to website closures and prison time for RFE/RL’s employees. RFE/RL has also filed an urgent petition with the European Court of Human Rights to block Russia from enforcing penalties for violations of its controversial "foreign agent" law. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.21, RFE/RL, 04.16.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• At least 300,000 more people died last year during the coronavirus pandemic than the numbers that were reported in Russia’s most widely cited official statistics. (New York Times, 04.10.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• Putin announced April 14 that he has received his second COVID-19 vaccine with one of Russia's domestically developed vaccines and that he hoped Russians would follow his example. Under 10 percent of the capital’s residents have been vaccinated. (The Moscow Times, 04.14.21, The Moscow Times, 04.15.21)
• Russian industrial output posted 1.1 percent year-on-year growth in March 2021, according to Rosstat statistics agency data, making the first year-on-year growth in a year. In February industrial production fell heavily by 3.7 percent year-on-year due to the leap year affect, down from a 1.9 percent contraction seen in January. (bne IntelliNews, 04.16.21)
• Putin wants to get Russia’s economy growing again after the pandemic with a burst of spending. Just what he has in mind is being kept secret until his annual address to the nation on April 21. But officials led by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin are already considering several possible ways to come up with the cash. Options include tapping the government’s $182 billion rainy-day fund, easing spending restrictions under a self-imposed fiscal rule, diverting money from other projects and raising taxes. (Bloomberg, 04.13.21)
• Russia's central bank has finalized plans for the issuance of the digital ruble, which is tentatively scheduled to be launched in 2022. (bne IntelliNews, 04.12.21)
• The share of Russia’s ruble-denominated OFZ bonds held by foreigners fell to a more than five-year low of 20.2 percent in March, down from more than 30 percent a year earlier. (Financial Times, 04.13.21)
• State prosecutors in Moscow asked a court on April 16 to label jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny's anti-corruption group and regional headquarters "extremist" organizations, a move that would ban them and open up activists to long jail terms. Activists caught organizing the activity of such groups can be jailed for up to 10 years, people taking part in them can be held criminally liable and the groups themselves are prohibited from any kind of banking activity. (Reuters, 04.16.21)
  • Navalny’s wife says she is growing more concerned over his health as the toll of prison life and a hunger strike mounts. (RFE/RL, 04.13.21)
  • Navalny’s team has published details of what it alleges is another lavish residence belonging to Putin. The video investigation, which had attracted 2.7 million views on YouTube within the first 20 hours of its publication on April 15, alleges that Putin’s fourth official residence, on 150 hectares of land located near Lake Valdai northwest of Moscow, contains sumptuous interiors and includes a large spa center not revealed to Russian taxpayers. (RFE/RL, 04.16.21)
  • Lyubov Sobol, a lawyer for Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, has been handed a one-year suspended sentence of correctional labor for trespassing. (RFE/RL, 04.15.21)
• Russian security agents have searched the home of one of the country's most prominent investigative journalists and brought him in for interrogation, in what his lawyer and editorial team said was related to coverage of one of country's most powerful men, Igor Sechin. (RFE/RL, 04.09.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community said: “Despite flat or even declining defense spending, Russia will emphasize new weapons that present increased threats to the United States and regional actors while continuing its foreign military engagements, conducting training exercises and incorporating lessons from its involvement in Syria and Ukraine.” “Moscow has the wherewithal to deploy forces in strategically important regions but the farther it deploys from Russia, the less able it probably will be to sustain intensive combat operations,” the report said. (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 04.13.21)
• Putin called on April 12 for Russia to remain a great power in space, as the country celebrated the 60th anniversary of the legendary flight that made Yuri Gagarin the first person in orbit. (The Moscow Times, 04.13.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A Russian exile was strangled in his own home by a third party, a coroner has ruled. Businessman Nikolai Glushkov, who was critical of Putin, was found dead in southwest London in March 2018. West London Coroner's Court heard there was evidence to suggest his death was made to look like a suicide and there had been "third-party involvement." (BBC, 04.10.21)
• A Russian academic who worked in aviation has been arrested for allegedly passing secrets to NATO, state media reported April 13, citing an unnamed source. A Moscow court placed Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology professor and Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute employee Valery Golubkin until June 12. (The Moscow Times, 04.13.21)
• Alexander Vorobyov, who worked as an assistant to Putin's envoy to the Urals region, has been sentenced to 12 1/2 years in prison on a charge of high treason. Media reports said that investigators had found a Polish passport and a recording device in Vorobyov's possession at the time of his arrest. (RFE/RL, 04.14.21)
• German prosecutors said April 16 they are investigating a Russian man on suspicion that he helped to plan the murder of a Chechen dissident living in Germany on orders of the Chechen regime. Named as Valid D., the suspect is accused of "making a declaration of readiness to commit murder, preparing a serious act of violence endangering the state and violating the weapons act," prosecutors said. (AFP, 04.16.21)   

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia has claimed new slices of the continental shelf in the Arctic Ocean in two fresh submissions to the U.N. According to its March 31 submissions, Russia is seeking to define the outer limits of its continental shelf to include the Gakkel Ridge, the Lomonosov Ridge and the Canadian Basin. The new claims overlap with those of Canada and Denmark. (The Moscow Times, 04.12.21)
• Members of the German Bundestag have described the treatment of Navalny as "targeted torture" and demanded the European Committee for the Prevention of Torture review the conditions of his detention. (RFE/RL, 04.11.21)
• Argentina’s health ministry has said Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine is more effective at preventing coronavirus infections than its Chinese and Indian competitors. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.21)
• Russian tech giant Yandex said April 15 it plans to launch its rapid grocery delivery service in France later this year and is also gearing up to start operations in London. (AFP, 04.16.21)   

Ukraine:  

• Pentagon officials say current intelligence does not indicate that the Russian land force is prepared for offensive operations in the next few days, because there is no evidence of the logistics, spare parts, fuel and medical capability that would need to be pre-positioned. But the concern remains that there are also no indicators of Russia reducing its forces or signaling a de-escalation. And events on the ground can change quickly, officials caution, noting that the intelligence assessments typically project out for only a few days at a time. (CNN, 04.14.21)
• The Russian military buildup at the Ukraine border and in Crimea could provide enough forces for a limited military incursion, CIA director William Burns told senators April 14. ''They could actually be going into a series of exercises starting anytime, or they could, if they chose to, perhaps do a limited objective attack,'' said Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. ''We don't know what the intent is, right now.'' (New York Times, 04.15.21)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s spokesperson Julia Mendel said April 12 that Russia had stationed more than 40,000 troops on the eastern border area and sent another 9,000 to Crimea, in addition to the 33,000 troops already there. (Financial Times, 04.12.21)
• The Russian Armed Forces are reportedly deploying the Iskander (NATO reporting name: SS-26 Stone) missile systems with R-500 extended-range ground-launched cruise missiles in areas near Voronezh, 250 kilometers away from the border with Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. (Defense Blog, 04.10.21)
• Two Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in clashes with pro-Russia separatists in Ukraine's war-torn east, its military said April 12. The Ukrainian army said that one serviceman was killed on April 10 when separatist fighters opened fire with small arms, while another soldier "received a gunshot bullet wound incompatible with life" on April 12. (AFP, 04.12.21)
• “I also made clear to President Clutin [sic] that the United—Putin—that the United States is unwavering in our support of our allies and partners in Europe. In that vein, I expressed concern about Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border and occup—and in occupied Crimea. I affirmed U.S. support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.  And I strongly urged him to refrain from any military action,” Biden said April 15. (The White House, 04.15.21)
• "President Biden's been very clear about this," Blinken said April 11. "If Russia acts recklessly, or aggressively, there will be costs, there will be consequences." Blinken and Austin attended a NATO meeting April 14, at which discussions focused on the Russia-Ukraine border, where Russia has been amassing its forces. Stoltenberg called Russia's actions "aggressive" and said it must "stop provocations and deescalate." Blinken said in Brussels on April 13 that the United States "stands firmly behind the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Ukraine." (VOA, 04.14.21, RFE/RL, 04.11.21)
• Stoltenberg said Russia should withdraw the tens of thousands of troops it has massed around Ukraine in recent weeks. "Russia's considerable military buildup is unjustified, unexplained and deeply concerning," Stoltenberg said after an April 13 meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Stoltenberg called on Moscow to end "the largest massing of Russian troops since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014." (Wall Street Journal, 04.13.21, RFE/RL, 04.14.21)        
• French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were to hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky April 16 in a show of support for Kyiv amid concerns about a buildup of Russian troops. Macron received Zelensky for lunch in Paris and both leaders will then talk with Merkel on a videoconference call, the French presidency said. (RFE/RL, 04.16.21)
• Germany has accused Russia of seeking provocation with its troop buildup. "My impression is that the Russian side is trying everything to provoke a reaction," German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said April 14. (RFE/RL, 04.14.21)
• Foreign ministers from the Baltics have expressed solidarity with Ukraine, a fellow former Soviet republic, and called for Moscow to de-escalate rising tensions. "The red line of Ukraine is the state border. If Russia crosses the red line, then it will have to suffer," Kuleba told the Baltic ministers. (RFE/RL, 04.15.21 AFP, 04.15.21)
• Zelensky has not received a response to his request for a telephone call with Putin, his spokesperson said. Separately, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said April 12 that Russia had refused to engage “in consultations aimed at reducing security tensions” and boycotted an OSCE meeting on April 10 where the troop build-up was scheduled to be discussed.  (Financial Times, 04.12.21)
• After talks in Istanbul with Zelensky, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called recent developments "worrying" and said he hoped the conflict would be resolved peacefully through dialogue and in line with Ukraine's territorial integrity.
  • In a $1 billion deal, the largest for Turkey’s defense industry, Ukraine will purchase four Ada class “stealth” corvettes for patrolling the Black Sea. Additionally, Ukrainian Motor Sich engines are to power Turkey’s planned heavy attack helicopter ATAK-2 that is being developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries.
  • The Kremlin said April 13 that it was dismayed over Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone systems in the Donbass. Russia has announced that it is to restrict flights to and from Turkey from April 15 to June 1, citing climbing COVID-19 cases in the country. The suspicion is that the restriction is in response to Erdogan’s expression of readiness to support Ukraine. (bne IntelliNews, 04.12.21, Ukraine Business News, 04.12.21, RFE/RL, 04.11.21, Defense Blog, 04.13.21)
• Russia has shut off access to the Black Sea and is harassing Ukrainian warships amid Moscow's wider military buildup in the area, Ukraine said April 15. Ukraine’s foreign ministry said in a statement that Russia will close from next week until October parts of the Black Sea toward the narrow Kerch Strait, which connects southern Russia to annexed Crimea, for military drills. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.21)
• The Kremlin on April 11 said it was not moving toward war with Ukraine. "Of course, nobody is planning to move toward war and in general, nobody accepts the possibility of such a war," Peskov said, adding that "nobody also accepts the possibility of civil war in Ukraine." Peskov insisted that Moscow "will not remain indifferent" to the fate of Russian speakers who live in the conflict-torn region. (The Moscow Times, 04.11.21)
• Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused the U.S. and other NATO members of “deliberately turning Ukraine into a powder keg” and of increasing their arms supplies to Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 04.13.21)
• Ukraine’s special services are plotting to carry out acts of sabotage and terror attacks in Crimea, including at vital infrastructure facilities, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said April 14. (Defense Blog, 04.14.21)
• When Yuri Andropov was secretary general of the CPSU, he and his aides worked on planning a “new cut” of the country in case the USSR disintegrated. That plan called for two Ukraines, east and west of the Dnepr river, according to Pyotr Aven’s interview with Kommersant. According to Aven, this plan, if implemented, would have entailed all of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic’s lands east of that river ending up in a common state with Russia. It was also during Andropov’s rule that the idea of dividing the country into federal districts was discussed, according to Aven, who was an economist in the Soviet academy of sciences at the time. (Russia Matters. 04.10.21)
• The share of Russians who think the DNR and LNR should join Russia or become independent from Ukraine declined from 62 percent in May 2014 to 53 percent in March 2021, according to the Levada Center. (Russia Matters, 04.15.21)
• Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine frequently discussed the movements of the Buk missile system that investigators believe was used to down Flight MH17 in July 2014, the Dutch Nieuwsuur current affairs program reported April 11, citing leaked recordings of their phone calls. (The Moscow Times, 04.12.21)
• Human Rights Watch is urging Kyiv to repatriate dozens of Ukrainian women and children it says are being held in "horrific" conditions in Syrian camps. An estimated 40 Ukrainian women and children are "unlawfully" detained in two camps in northeastern Syria. (RFE/RL, 04.13.21)
• The Ukrainian economy contracted by 2.8 percent in January and February, compared to the first two months of last year, estimated the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. Consensus forecasts put Ukraine’s 2021 GDP growth at 4 percent. (Ukraine Business News, 04.12.21)
• Ukraine’s central bank on April 15 hiked its benchmark lending rate by 1 percentage point to 7.5 percent in a bid to tame inflation as the prospects of an economic rebound dimmed. (Financial Times, 04.15.21)
• FDI flows into Ukraine’s economy decreased more than ten times, from $4.5 billion in 2019 to only $400 million in 2020. (The National Interest, 04.09.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community said: “Moscow is well positioned to increase its role in the Caucasus, intervene in Belarus if it deems necessary and continue destabilization efforts against Ukraine while settlement talks remain stalled and low-level fighting continues.” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 04.13.21)
• Poland is deploying troops from the 18th Division of the First Warsaw Armored Brigade near to the Belarusian border, reports Belarus Security Blog, as Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko cracks down on the ethnic Polish minority in the country. (bne IntelliNews, 04.13.21)
• The Kremlin says Putin and Lukashenko have agreed to meet in Moscow on April 22 to discuss cooperation between the two countries. (RFE/RL, 04.16.21)
• Belarusian lawmakers have approved several amendments to legislation that severely restricts civil rights and the free flow of information amid a crackdown on protests. (RFE/RL, 04.09.21)
• The Belarusian Committee of State Security has confirmed the detention of the chairman of the opposition Belarusian Popular Front, Ryhor Kastusyou, and noted political analyst Alexander Fyaduta amid an ongoing crackdown on dissent. (RFE/RL, 04.13.21)
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said April 14 that his government was in "talks with Russian partners on setting up a foothold of Russia's 102nd military base" in Armenia's Syunik region. Armenia hosts a 3,000-troops-strong Russian military base in its second-largest city of Gyumri and Russian border guards are deployed along Armenia's borders with Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran. (AFP, 04.14.21)
• Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of violating a key term of the Russian-brokered cease-fire deal that ended last fall’s fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, alleging that Baku is reneging on a pledge to free Armenian soldiers and civilians captured during the conflict. (RFE/RL, 04.09.21)
• Voters in Kyrgyzstan have approved a new constitution that expands the power of the president in a referendum, according to preliminary results. The Central Election Commission said results from 90 percent of ballots showed that around 79 percent of voters backed the constitutional amendments. (RFE/RL, 04.11.21)
• The police chief of the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, has been dismissed and dozens of other senior officers punished over the handling of a suspected murder-suicide that has mobilized public anger over the ongoing practice of "bride kidnapping." (RFE/RL, 04.11.21)
• Turkmenistan's authoritarian president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, who is also the head of the government in the tightly controlled state, has added another title to his name: the speaker of the newly established upper chamber of parliament, the Halk Maslahaty (People's Council). (RFE/RL, 04.15.21)
• Russia has asked migrants from post-Soviet states living there illegally to leave the country by June 15. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.