Russia in Review, Aug. 14-21, 2020
This Week’s Highlights
- During consultations in Vienna, the U.S. informed Russia of its terms for extending New START, according to Reuters. The terms include a politically binding agreement that would address what Washington says is Moscow's build-up of shorter-range nuclear weapons, and make the verification system more robust, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea said. At the same time the Trump administration abandoned its demand that China be involved in any nuclear talks, Axios reports. The shift been driven in part by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and perhaps by his desire for a nuclear summit with Putin before the November election, which Trump has voiced to aides, according to NBC News. One option under consideration is for the two leaders to sign a blueprint in New York in September for a way forward in negotiations on extending New START.
- The Senate Intelligence Committee released the fifth and final volume of its Russia investigation report Aug. 18. According to the Financial Times, the report said Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager, regularly passed information during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign to Russian intelligence officer Konstantin Kilimnik, and that Putin ordered an effort to hack computer networks and accounts affiliated with the Democratic party and leak information. Asked by reporters whether he agreed with the report, Trump said, "I don't know anything about it" and again labeled the Russia investigations "a big hoax," the Wall Street Journal reports, while Kilimnik denied he was a Russian intelligence officer.
- Russia began work on one of the world's largest polymer plants in a $11 billion venture with China in Russia's Far East, the Wall Street Journal reports. The project is being developed by Russian petrochemical company Sibur Holding in partnership with Chinese Sinopec Group. U.S. energy company Chevron Phillips is joining as a technological partner, according to Sibur. Russia also is considering two new joint investment projects with China for a total amount of $10 billion to China: a complex for processing ethane-containing gas in Ust-Luga and a joint insurance company, TASS reports.
- Putin told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the crisis in Belarus could escalate if “external actors tried to meddle in the republic’s internal affairs,” the Financial Times reports. “The main thing for Russia is to maintain friendly relations with Belarus and not intervene,” a person close to the Kremlin told the Financial Times. “There’s no east-west divide and no aggressive nationalism like in Ukraine.” Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenko said Aug. 15 that Putin had promised him “comprehensive security assistance” against the protests sweeping his country, the Financial Times reports, while EU leaders have condemned the Belarus elections as unfair but stressed that any political change must come from within the country rather than outside interference.
- Doctors in Siberia gave Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny permission to be transferred abroad for medical treatment, in a sudden reversal Aug. 21 after more than 24 hours of wrangling, according to AP. The doctors had been refusing to let Navalny be moved to a hospital in Germany despite learning he was poisoned with a “deadly toxin,” his aides said, according to the Financial Times. Navalny was returning to Moscow on a flight from Tomsk on Aug. 20 when he fell ill shortly after take-off and lost consciousness. Kira Yarmysh, his spokesperson, said she suspected Navalny had been poisoned by something mixed into his tea at the airport. Three German physicians were allowed to examine Navalny at the Omsk hospital, where he is on a respirator, but were then spirited away by unidentified authorities before they could share their conclusions with Navalny's wife, according to The Washington Post.
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda
Nuclear security and safety:
- Officials from Rosatom have reiterated plans to raise two sunken nuclear submarines from the Arctic in an interview with government-sponsored media—an effort they say will be completed within eight years. The unnamed officials, speaking with the TASS newswire, said they would aim to recover the K-159 and K-27, two entire nuclear submarines, as well as the reactors from three others, all of which went down filled with their uranium fuel. (Bellona, 08.14.20)
North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:
- No significant developments.
Iran and its nuclear program:
- U.S. allies rebuked Washington over its effort to reimpose international sanctions on Iran on Aug. 20. The U.K., France and Germany said they did not support U.S. efforts to reinstate the sanctions that were waived as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal from which the U.S. withdrew. The U.S. announced on Aug. 19 that it would reimpose the sanctions on Tehran, with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notifying the Security Council on Aug. 20 that Washington was restoring the sanctions, which would come into effect in 30 days. The Trump administration’s earlier attempt to indefinitely extend a U.N. arms embargo on Iran on Aug. 14 secured only a single vote in addition to its own from the 15-strong Security Council. (Financial Times, 08.14.20, Financial Times, 08.20.20)
- Russia will counter any U.S. attempts to renew sanctions against Iran within the U.N., Russia’s Permanent Representative to the U.N. Vasily Nebenzya told reporters Aug. 20. Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov described statements by the U.S. on re-imposing U.N. sanctions against Iran as “absurd,” adding that the country has no legal or political grounds to do so. (TASS, 08.20.20, The Guardian, 08.20.20)
New Cold War/saber rattling:
- U.S. President Donald Trump vowed on Aug. 20 to retaliate if countries were found to have offered bounties for attacks on U.S. troops in Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 08.20.20)
- Japan’s military scrambled fighter aircraft to intercept Russian Ilyushin Il-20M radar reconnaissance and electronic intelligence aircraft, it said on Aug. 14. (Defense Blog, 08.15.20)
- The Russian Defense Ministry has reported about the rise of U.S. military activity over Russia’s border. On Aug. 14, the Russian Defense Ministry press release said that Russian radars tracked 46 foreign aircraft that conducted air reconnaissance near Russia’s state border in the past week. (Defense Blog, 08.14.20)
- Norway has expelled a Russian diplomat linked to the case of a Norwegian national recently arrested on espionage charges. Norway’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to inform him that the diplomat had been asked to leave because he “performed actions that are not compatible with his role and status as a diplomat.” (RFE/RL, 08.19.20)
- Russia's Foreign Ministry on Aug. 17 said it had summoned the Dutch charge d'affaires in Moscow to protest over what it said was spying on Russia's military attaché in the Netherlands. (The Moscow Times, 08.17.20)
NATO-Russia relations:
- No significant developments.
Missile defense:
- No significant developments.
Nuclear arms control:
- The Trump administration has abandoned its demand that China be involved in any nuclear talks. It's now aiming to reach a political accord with Russia, and then pressure China to join talks and eventually a treaty. “There has been a shift,” U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea said. It's been driven in part by Trump’s conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and perhaps by his desire for a nuclear summit before November—something national security adviser Robert O’Brien recently confirmed was a possibility. (Axios, 08.20.20)
- Russia notes that the U.S. is still interested in China’s participation in future strategic stability talks, Ryabkov said. According to Ryabkov, Russia has not changed its position that France and the U.K., as the United States’ closest allies, should join the arms control talks in future. (TASS, 08.18.20)
- China has no intention whatsoever of joining the so-called trilateral arms control talks with Russia and the U.S. “This stance is both clear and consistent," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said Aug. 21. (TASS, 08.21.20)
- The U.S. and Russia concluded a third round of arms-control talks still at odds over several key issues on Aug. 18, but the two sides showed a willingness to possibly extend the New START Treaty before it expires next year. The delegations were headed by Ryabkov and Billingslea. (RFE/RL, 08.18.20, TASS, 08.20.20)
- The U.S. has informed Russia of its terms for extending New START, and now it is Russia's move, Billingslea said. The terms include a politically binding agreement that would address what Washington says is Moscow's build-up of shorter-range nuclear weapons, and make the verification system more robust, Billingslea said after the talks. He also confirmed that Russia raised “a range of issues with U.S. capabilities,” but says Moscow's non-nuclear concerns—missile defense, NATO activities—aren't on the table for this particular deal. (AP, 08.18.20, Reuters, 08.18.20, Wall Street Journal, 08.18.20. Axios, 08.20.20)
- “We suggest extending the current agreement as it was signed and is being implemented, without any additions,” Ryabkov said. “The chances [to extend New START Treaty] aren't great, but they haven't dried up yet,” he said. (Kommersant/Russica Izvestia, 08.20.20, Interfax, 08.18.20)
Counter-terrorism:
- No significant developments.
Conflict in Syria:
- A Russian major general was killed and two servicemen wounded when an improvised explosive device went off near a Russian convoy in eastern Syria on Aug. 18. (The Moscow Times, 08.18.20)
- An explosion occurred near a Turkish vehicle during a joint Russian-Turkish patrol mission in Syria's Idlib on Aug. 17; Russian servicemen were not injured in the incident. The Russian Foreign Ministry told reporters Aug. 13 that the two countries' joint patrol on the M4 highway had been suspended due to attacks and provocations staged by militants. (Interfax, 08.17.20)
- The U.S. State Department is talking to Russia about Syria’s oil, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, head of U.S. Central Command said. “If we can find a way, for example, to generate income for the SDF from the oil fields, that income then can be equitably distributed in the long term,” he said. (The National Interest, 08.12.20)
- "Iran was much involved in Syria up to 2015, and even with Iranian help Assad could not stop the opposition gaining ever more territory. It was the entry of Russian forces, specifically air forces, into the conflict in late 2015 that turned the tide. That is still the situation," U.S. envoy for Syria James Jeffrey said. "Assad’s survival is totally the work of Russia, thus we expect Russia to deliver Assad to the negotiating table," he pointed out. Jeffrey said Russia had enough leverage to bring the Assad regime to the negotiating table and push Iran-led forces out of the country. (Interfax, 08.14.20, The National, 08.14.20)
- The situation in Libya and in Syria was in focus during Putin’s telephone talks with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Russian leader called for the launch of direct negotiations between Libya’s conflicting parties, the Kremlin press service said on Aug. 17. (TASS, 08.17.20)
- Over the past two years, the Israeli air force has destroyed a third of Syria’s advanced air defense systems, according to IAF assessments. However, much of those anti-aircraft weapons have already been replaced or even upgraded by more advanced models from either Russia or Iran. (Times of Israel, 08.13.20)
Cyber security:
- Trump said on Aug. 15 that he would consider pardoning Edward Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor who faced criminal charges after leaking classified documents about vast government surveillance. (New York Times, 08.16.20)
Elections interference:
- The Senate Intelligence Committee released the fifth and final volume of its bipartisan Russia investigation report Aug. 18. The report said:
- Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager, regularly passed information during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign to a Russian intelligence officer who worked for him. The report concluded that Manafort constituted a “grave counter-intelligence threat” because of his “close and lasting relationship” with Konstantin Kilimnik, the alleged intelligence officer who managed Manafort’s office in Ukraine. The report found that Manafort passed Kilimnik sensitive polling data and campaign strategy and repeatedly discussed with him a peace deal for eastern Ukraine that benefited the Kremlin. (Financial Times, 08.18.20)
- Putin ordered an effort to hack computer networks and accounts affiliated with the Democratic party and leak information in an attempt to damage Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president, assist Trump and “undermine the U.S. democratic process.” (Financial Times, 08.18.20)
- WikiLeaks, which published hacked Democratic documents, “actively sought, and played, a key role in” the Russian campaign, adding it “very likely knew” it was assisting a Russian influence effort. (Financial Times, 08.18.20)
- Asked by reporters Aug. 18 whether he agreed with the Senate panel's conclusion that Putin ordered the hack of Democratic emails, Trump said, "I don't know anything about it" and again labeled the Russia investigations "a big hoax." (Wall Street Journal, 08.18.20)
- A White House spokesperson said the Senate report “affirms what we have known for years. There was absolutely no collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.” (Financial Times, 08.18.20)
- Kilimnik on Aug. 18 denied he was a Russian intelligence officer and said he had never had any ties to any intelligence service. He told The Wall Street Journal that "the allegations outlined in the report with regard to me are based on pure fantasy and wrong interpretation of events." (Wall Street Journal, 08.18.20)
- Rinat Akhmetshin, a former Soviet army officer who has worked as a lobbyist in the U.S., told the Financial Times that the report “exonerated” him of the “scandalous lie” that he was a Russian spy. (Financial Times, 08.18.20)
- The Republican and Democratic chairmen of the Senate Intelligence Committee notified federal prosecutors last year of their suspicion that several individuals, including Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Stephen Bannon and Erik Prince might have presented misleading testimony in the panel's investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election, people familiar with the matter said. (The Washington Post, 08.16.20)
- William Evanina, the top counterintelligence official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that his concern is potential interference efforts after election day when a surge in mail-in voting delays a final outcome. (The Washington Post, 08.20.20)
- Former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith pleaded guilty Aug. 19 to altering an email that one of his colleagues relied on as he sought a court's blessing to surveil Trump campaign adviser Carter Page during the bureau's 2016 investigation of Russia's election interference. (The Washington Post, 08.20.20)
Energy exports from CIS:
- A letter sent by three U.S. senators warning the owner of a port on the Baltic Sea of “crushing legal and economic sanctions” if it continued to provide “significant goods, services and support” for the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has caused outrage in Germany. (Financial Times, 08.19.20)
U.S.-Russian economic ties:
- No significant developments.
U.S.-Russian relations in general:
- Trump has told aides he'd like to hold an in-person meeting with Putin before the November election, according to four people familiar with the discussions. Administration officials have explored various times and locations for another Trump-Putin summit, including potentially next month in New York. One option under consideration is for the two leaders to sign a blueprint for a way forward in negotiations on extending New START. (NBC News, 08.16.20)
- “There have been no initiatives from the American side to arrange such contacts. We think that any contacts of this kind should be properly prepared,” Ryabkov said when asked to comment on reports of such a meeting. (Interfax, 08.18.20)
- O’Brien said Aug. 16 that Trump has not asked for a meeting with Putin in the U.S. but he hopes to host the Russian leader to sign a new arms control agreement. (NBC News, 08.16.20)
- "The two presidents, I presume, would like to get together," Billingslea told reporters after two days of talks with his Russian counterpart in Vienna. (Wall Street Journal, 08.18.20)
- Alexander Korshunov, business development director of the Russian United Engine Corporation, who was arrested in Italy at the request of the U.S. has been in Russia since late July, his defense attorney said. (TASS, 08.17.20)
II. Russia’s domestic policies
Domestic politics, economy and energy:
- Russia registered 4,870 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, taking its total to 946,976. Meanwhile, 90 new deaths were reported, taking the nationwide count to 16,189. (Xinhua, 08.21.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
- Roughly 10 days after becoming the first nation to approve a COVID-19 vaccine, Russia now said it intends to expand key drug trials by tens of thousands of subjects. Tests originally said to include just 1,600 to 2,000 persons now will use 40,000, including a control group,. (ABC News, 08.20.20)
- Russia said Aug. 15 that it has produced the first batch of its coronavirus vaccine, after Putin announced it had been first in the world to approve a vaccine. (The Moscow Times, 08.15.20)
- Doctors in Siberia gave Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny permission to be transferred abroad for medical treatment, in a sudden reversal Aug. 21 after more than 24 hours of wrangling. The doctors had been refusing to let Navalny be moved to a hospital in Germany despite learning he was poisoned in Siberia with a “deadly toxin,” his aides said Aug. 21. Navalny was returning to Moscow on a flight from Tomsk on Aug. 20 when he fell ill shortly after take-off and lost consciousness, said Kira Yarmysh, his spokeswoman. Yarmysh said she suspected Navalny had been poisoned by something mixed into his tea at the airport. “It was the only thing he drank all morning. Doctors said that the toxin was absorbed more quickly through hot liquid,” she said. The doctors treating Navalny later said they had found no traces of toxic substances in his system, despite telling his wife the contrary an hour earlier. (AP, 08.21.20, Financial Times, 08.20.20, Financial Times, 08.21.20)
- Ivan Zhdanov, head of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, said a police officer had told him Navalny was poisoned with a substance “that poses a threat not only to him but to those around him.” He said the officer had told them that the toxin required those treating Navalny to wear protective equipment but did not give any further details. (Financial Times, 08.21.20)
- Three German physicians were allowed to examine Navalny at the Omsk hospital, where he is on a respirator. But Navalny's associates wrote on Twitter that the doctors were spirited away by unidentified authorities before they could share their conclusions with Navalny's wife, Yulia Navalnaya. (The Washington Post, 08.21.20)
- Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, on Aug. 21 denied that the Kremlin was aware of any impediment to transporting Navalny, except that it was “exclusively a medical decision.” A day earlier, Peskov had said the Kremlin would expedite any efforts to evacuate him to a specialist toxicology clinic in Europe. (Financial Times, 08.21.20)
- TASS, citing an anonymous law enforcement source, reported that a criminal investigation has not been opened because there is no evidence yet that points to intentional poisoning. (The Washington Post, 08.21.20)
- At a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Aug. 20, French President Emmanuel Macron was ready to offer “all necessary assistance to Navalny, in terms of healthcare, asylum and protection.” Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, said in a tweet: “Worried to hear about Alexei Navalny’s suspected poisoning. If confirmed, those responsible must be held to account. Wishing him a swift and full recovery.” (Financial Times, 08.20.20)
Defense and aerospace:
- Russia is holding a massive military exercise in Kaliningrad. The exercise on destruction of the command posts and other objects of the mock enemy started with the crews of mobile-tactical missile complexes “Iskander” of the Baltic Fleet army corp at the ground in the Kaliningrad region. (Defense Blog, 08.17.20)
Security, law-enforcement and justice:
- Since the Council of Europe's anti-corruption council's last report in 2017, Russia has complied with nine of 22 recommendations. (The Moscow Times, 08.18.20)
III. Russia’s relations with other countries
Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:
- Russian Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov has had a meeting with BRICS in Moscow Aug. 20 to discuss the situation in the Middle East as part of preparations for holding a teleconference on issues of the region on the level of deputy foreign ministers and special representatives of the association. (TASS, 08.20.20)
- Russia increased exports of agribusiness products by 18 percent year-on-year to more than $13 billion in the first half of 2020, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko was reported as saying. (Interfax, 08.20.20)
- Mexico will receive at least 2,000 doses of Russia’s candidate coronavirus vaccine as part of the injection's Phase 3 clinical trials, Mexico’s foreign minister said Aug. 20. (The Moscow Times, 08.21.20)
China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?
- The potential deployment of the United States' short and medium-range missiles in the Asia Pacific will destabilize the region and prompt Russia to respond with measures, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said. "The anti-Chinese direction of these intentions is clear and explicit,” she said. (Interfax, 08.20.20)
- Russia and China are partnering to reduce their dependence on the dollar. In the first quarter of 2020, the dollar’s share of trade between Russia and China fell below 50 percent for the first time on record, according to recent data from Russia’s Central Bank and Federal Customs Service. As recently as 2015, approximately 90 percent of bilateral transactions were conducted in dollars. (Financial Times, 08.17.20)
- Russia began work on one of the world's largest polymer plants, a facility that will produce plastic components aimed at the Chinese market, in a display of its strengthening economic ties with Beijing. Located in Amur, near the border with China in Russia's Far East, the $11 billion project is being developed by Russian petrochemical company Sibur Holding in partnership with Chinese state-controlled energy giant Sinopec Group. U.S. energy company Chevron Phillips, along with Western chemical firms Linde PLC, Univation Technologies LLC and LyondellBasell Industries NV, are joining as technological partners, according to Sibur. (Wall Street Journal, 08.18.20)
- Russia is considering two new joint investment projects with China for a total of $10 billion to China, the Economic Development Ministry reported on Aug. 20. The two projects include the construction of a gas processing complex for processing ethane-containing gas in the area of the Ust-Luga settlement in the Leningrad region and the creation of a Russian-Chinese insurance company. (TASS, 08.20.20)
- Only three weeks earlier, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi had told his counterpart in Russia that the United States had “lost its mind, morals and credibility.” (New York Times, 08.15.20)
Ukraine:
- The fall in Ukraine’s GDP in the second quarter of 2020 amounted to 11.4 percent compared to the same period in 2019 against 1.3 percent in the first quarter, the State Statistics Service has reported in its preliminary estimate. (Interfax, 08.14.20)
- Ukraine’s exports of goods to Russia decreased by 16.7 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2020, while imports dropped by 42.6 percent, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service said. In monetary terms, export of goods to Russia totaled $1.326 billion, and imports amounted to $2.195 billion. Exports to Russia accounted for 5.8 percent of all Ukraine’s exports in the first half of the year, imports accounted for 9.1 percent. (Interfax, 08.14.20)
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has described Belarus' decision to hand over the Russian citizens considered by Minsk to be members of the Wagner private military company to Russia as unfair and inconsistent with friendly relations between Belarus and Ukraine. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister has also summoned the Belarusian ambassador for consultations and has for the first time ever recalled its ambassador to Belarus. (Interfax, 08.17.20 ,RFE/RL, 08.17.20,bne IntelliNews, 08.19.20)
- A poll conducted jointly by the Socis Center and the Razumkov Center shows that 64.5 percent of Ukrainians view the Ukrainian language as the only official language in the country. Some 17.7 percent believe that Russian could be recognized as an official language in certain regions. (Interfax, 08.13.20)
- Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau Artem Sytnyk announced the existence of a memorandum of cooperation with the FBI, in the PrivatBank case, which is associated with businessman Igor Kolomoisky. (Interfax, 08.17.20)
Belarus:
- Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenko claimed he was willing to hand over power, but only after a referendum and the adoption of a new constitution and not because of street protests. However, he also instructed the Interior Ministry to prevent unrest in the country and tighten border controls to keep purported foreign influences. In addition, Lukashenko ordered paratroopers from Vitebsk to Grodno, charging that European countries were responsible for escalations of the dangerous situation in the border regions. (Defense Blog, 08.16.20, RFE/RL, 08.19.20, Wall Street Journal, 08.18.20)
- Belarus’s Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin told the country’s military elite that there may be a military conflict and they may be called on to use their weapons, in an hour long briefing, the audio of which was leaked to the local press. (bne IntelliNews, 08.21.20)
- Putin warned Europe not to interfere in Belarus, as EU leaders queued up to urge the Russian leader to help steer the former Soviet republic out of its political crisis. Putin told Merkel, who called him on Aug. 18, that the crisis in Belarus could escalate if “external actors tried to meddle in the republic’s internal affairs,” according to a Kremlin readout of the call. Such interference was “unacceptable,” it said. In a statement on Aug. 18, Merkel’s office said she had stressed in her conversation with Putin that the Belarusian government “must refrain from violence against peaceful demonstrators, immediately release political prisoners and enter a national dialogue with the opposition and [civil] society.” (Financial Times, 08.18.20)
- Lukashenko said on Aug. 15 that Putin had promised him “comprehensive security assistance” against the protests sweeping his country. “As far as military matters are concerned, we have an agreement with Russia . . . that covers these incidents,” Lukashenko said after speaking to Putin, according to state news agency Belta. (Financial Times, 08.15.20)
- “The main thing for Russia is to maintain friendly relations with Belarus and not intervene,” a person close to the Kremlin said. “There’s no east-west divide and no aggressive nationalism like in Ukraine.” (Financial Times, 08.20.20)
- The Kremlin said Aug. 19 that events in Belarus did not yet warrant Russia’s military involvement, while Russia’s foreign minister admitted shortcomings in the disputed presidential elections. (The Moscow Times, 08.19.20)
- EU leaders have condemned the Belarus elections as unfair but stressed that any political change from the authoritarian rule of Lukashenko must come from within the country rather than outside interference. The leaders stopped short of calling for Lukashenko to step down or urging tougher measures than the sanctions process already launched by EU foreign ministers last week. The video summit took place a day after Merkel, European Council President Charles Michel and Macron held talks on the Belarus crisis with Putin. (Financial Times, 08.19.20)
- “For us, it’s quite clear that Belarus must find its own path for itself,” Merkel said. (Financial Times, 08.19.20)
- While stating that Europe ''stands by the people of Belarus,'' Michel said that any resolution of the crisis ''must be found in Belarus, not in Brussels or in Moscow,'' in a dialogue that might be initiated under the auspices of the OSCE. ''The EU will impose shortly sanctions on a substantial number of individuals responsible for violence, repression and election fraud,'' said Michel. (New York Times, 08.20.20, NPR, 08.18.20)
- EU Neighborhood Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi has expressed his readiness to travel to Minsk on an EU fact-finding mission to gather information following the government’s crackdown on protests. (RFE/RL, 08.14.20)
- Trump said the U.S. would be speaking with Russian officials about the situation in Belarus, and made a distinction between peaceful protests in the country and others in the U.S. that he sees as being driven by anarchists. "I like seeing democracy," Trump said Aug. 18. "Democracy is a very important word. It doesn't seem like it's too much democracy there in Belarus." (Wall Street Journal, 08.18.20)
- NATO said that it was “closely monitoring” the situation in Belarus, but denied it was increasing its presence near the eastern European nation’s borders. “There is no NATO build-up in the region,” tweeted Oana Lungescu, NATO spokesperson. (Financial Times, 08.16.20)
- As anti-government protests continue in Belarus, opposition leaders established a council to coordinate a new presidential election and what they hope would be a peaceful transfer of power. They say they want to create a "democratic, independent country" and are demanding the resignation of Lukashenko. The biggest opposition rally over the weekend came in Minsk, where, 200,000 people took part. As well as the rally in Minsk, protests against Lukashenko took place in cities across the country. (Financial Times, 08.16.20, RFE/RL, 08.19.20)
- Belarus has opened a criminal investigation into attempts by the opposition to “seize power” after Lukashenko's opponents created a Coordination Council to oversee a peaceful transition following disputed elections. (The Moscow Times, 08.20.20)
- Belarus has begun loading uranium fuel into the first of two reactors at its controversial Russian-built nuclear power plant, which has raised concerns in neighboring Lithuania and other Baltic states, TASS reported. (Bellona, 08.17.20)
- In January-July 2020, Belarus's GDP contacted by 1.6 percent year-on-year, according to the National Statistics Committee as cited by BelTA. (bne IntelliNews, 08.18.20)
Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:
- Kazakhstan's National Atomic Company Kazatomprom says it will continue to "flex down" production by 20 percent through 2022. The company is also maintaining its 20 percent reduction in 2021, with no additional production planned to replace volumes lost in 2020 due to the measures taken to combat COVID-19. (World Nuclear News, 08.19.20)
- A court in Tajikistan has sentenced 20 people to prison terms ranging from between five and seven years, after finding them guilty of membership in the banned Muslim Brotherhood movement. (RFE/RL, 08.19.20)
IV. Quoteworthy
- "I'm frankly more concerned about domestic players this time around," Bret Schafer, who studies disinformation at the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund said of interference in the U.S. presidential elections. (The Washington Post, 08.20.20)