This Week’s Highlights

• While Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Aug. 26 encouraged Tehran to resume talks on the Iran nuclear deal as soon as possible, Moscow’s ambassador in Tehran said Iran, Russia and China would hold joint maritime exercises, dubbed CHIRU, in the Persian Gulf in late 2021/early 2022, to ensure international shipping safety and combat piracy, according to separate reports by Reuters and the Kashimir Observer. Meanwhile, a Chinese military spokesperson touted Zapad/Interaction-2021, a recent joint military exercise between Russia and China, as a new high point in bilateral relations, the Global Times reported.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized the United States and its allies for leaving Afghanistan in chaos and causing potential security threats for Russia and its allies in Central Asia, The Washington Post reported. The Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization plans to hold military exercises in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Sept. 7-9 due to the situation, according to RFE/RL. On Aug. 23, AP reports, Putin launched the construction of new nuclear submarines and other warships as part of a sweeping military modernization effort amid tensions with the West.
• Following a raft of cyberattacks that have hit the public and private sectors over the past year, the most severe of which were said to have been perpetrated by actors based in Russia and China, several Big Tech companies made multibillion-dollar commitments to shore up lackluster U.S. cyber security defenses following a White House summit on Aug. 25, the Financial Times reports. Meanwhile, a court in Moscow has fined Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp for failing to localize the storage of personal data of its users amid a government campaign to gain more control over the Internet in Russia, according to RFE/RL.
• Nearly two out of every five Russians have avoided buying necessities because they can’t afford them, according to a survey by the independent Levada Center pollster published on Aug. 25, The Moscow Times reports.
• While Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine is holding up well against the Delta variant, according to a recent paper cited by Science magazine, Russia saw the highest monthly coronavirus death toll of the pandemic in July, with 50,421 people dying from COVID-19 or related causes during the month, state statistics service Rosstat said Aug. 27, according to Reuters; Russia’s highest one-day total, 820 deaths, was recorded on Aug. 26, as vaccination rates began to slump nationwide, the Financial Times writes.
• Russia plans to rely on its forests and swamps to absorb enough greenhouse gases to meet its climate goals while continuing to increase its carbon emissions through 2050, the Kommersant business daily reported, citing the Economic Development Ministry’s draft strategy, according to The Moscow Times.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Seoul and Moscow on Aug. 24 reaffirmed the importance of close coordination and the need to induce Pyongyang back to the stalled denuclearization talks in a meeting between the two sides’ top nuclear envoys. The U.S. special representative for North Korea, Sung Kim, was set to hold separate talks with his South Korean and Russian counterparts in Seoul, according to The Korea Times, but it is not clear whether the meeting with Moscow's Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov has taken place. The meetings, the newspaper notes, come as tensions have flared anew, with Pyongyang reacting furiously to the ongoing South Korea-U.S. military exercise. (Korea Herald, 08.24.21, Russia Matters, 08.27.21)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian that talks on the Iranian nuclear deal in Vienna should restart as soon as possible, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (Reuters, 08.26.21)

Great power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Putin said Aug. 20 that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan showed that it was time for the West to end its “irresponsible policy of imposing someone’s outside values from abroad.” At the same time, he pledged to work with the West to “normalize the situation” in Afghanistan and to “build good neighborly relations” with the country. “We know Afghanistan, we know it well,” Putin said, a reference to the Soviet Union’s disastrous war there in the 1980s. “We saw how this country is built and how counterproductive it is to try to force unnatural forms of governance and public life upon it.” (The New York Times, 08.20.21)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Moscow is strongly against any U.S. troops presence in the ex-Soviet Central Asian nations and also opposes American attempts to persuade them to host Afghan refugees. Speaking during a visit to Hungary, Lavrov noted that Russia and some of the Central Asian countries are members of a security pact stipulating that any foreign military presence in the region requires their common agreement. (The Washington Post, 08.24.21)
• Iran, Russia and China will hold joint maritime exercises, dubbed CHIRU, in the Persian Gulf between late 2021 and early 2022 to ensure international shipping safety and combat piracy, according to the Russian ambassador in Tehran. (Kashimir Observer, 08.26.21)
• Russia and Turkey are close to signing a new contract to supply Ankara with additional S-400 air defense units in the near future, the Interfax news agency cited the head of Russia’s Rosoboronexport arms exporter as saying Aug. 23. (Reuters, 08.23.21)
  • Putin and Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan discussed the situation in Afghanistan during a phone call and agreed to strengthen bilateral coordination on Afghan issues, the Kremlin said in a statement. (Reuters, 08.21.21)
• As Western military space honchos gathered in Colorado this week, a tantalizing report was published by journalist Theresa Hitchens: The Pentagon was debating whether or not to reveal a top-secret space weapon, but the process was put on hold by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. (Quartz, 08.26.21)

China-Russia: allied or aligned?

• Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have agreed their countries will step up efforts to counter "threats" emerging from Afghanistan following the Taliban's takeover, the Kremlin said on Aug. 25. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.25.21)
• A Chinese military spokesperson touted Zapad/Interaction-2021, a recent joint military exercise between Russia and China, as a new high point in bilateral relations, which the official says opened new horizons for military drills between the two countries and explored a new model for planning exercises together. (Global Times, 08.27.21)

Missile defense:

• Western hypersonic missiles, including those touted by former President Donald Trump as "super-duper," pose no threat to Russia and will be shot down, state arms maker Almaz-Antey said. (Newsweek, 08.25.21)

Arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• Putin has criticized the United States and its allies for leaving Afghanistan in chaos that raises potential security threats for Russia and its allies in Central Asia. “There is a danger that terrorists and different groups that found a refuge in Afghanistan will use the chaos left by our Western colleagues and try to launch an expansion into neighboring countries,” Putin said. “That will pose a direct threat to our country and its allies.” (The Washington Post, 08.24.21)
• Putin urged his country Aug. 22 to prevent an influx of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover, saying militants could enter under the guise of seeking asylum. "Our Western partners are persistently raising the question of placing refugees in Central Asian countries before obtaining visas to the United States or other countries," he told a meeting of officials of the ruling United Russia party. "But who is among these refugees? How can we know?" (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.23.21)
• The Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) says it plans to hold military exercises Sept. 7-9 in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to the ongoing situation in Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 08.27.21)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Aug. 27 Russia "condemns in the strongest possible terms" the twin suicide bombings—claimed by the Islamic State group—on crowds trying to flee Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The attacks near Kabul airport on Aug. 26 killed at least 85 people, including 13 U.S. servicemen. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.27.21)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• Following a raft of cyberattacks that have hit the public and private sectors over the past year, the most severe of which were said to have been perpetrated by actors based in Russia and China, several Big Tech companies made multibillion-dollar commitments to shore up lackluster U.S. cyber security defenses following a White House summit on Aug. 25. (Financial Times, 08.25.21)
• A court in Moscow has fined Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp for failing to localize the storage of personal data of its users amid a government campaign to gain more control over the internet in Russia. (RFE/RL, 08.26.21)

Elections interference:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia has slowed the delivery of piped natural gas to Europe in recent weeks, according to analysis from ICIS, a commodity intelligence service, raising questions about the potential causes behind the drop and its implications for global gas markets. (CNBC, 08.25.21)
• Europe is facing a natural-gas shortage just as Russia is completing a controversial pipeline to Germany, increasing Putin’s leverage over the continent’s energy flows. Europe’s gas stores are at their lowest levels for years after demand rebounded from a pandemic-induced low that had led producers to slash output. As a result, prices are hitting record levels and utilities are firing up coal-fired power stations to keep their own costs down. (The Wall Street Journal, 08.25.21)
• Germany is open to suggestions about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project but will not create obstacles to it, German Economy and Energy Minister Peter Altmaier said Aug. 23. (Reuters, 08.23.21) For news on Nord Stream 2-related sanctions see “U.S.-Russian relations in general” section below.
• Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, asked Putin to allow it to export 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year via an agent agreement with pipeline-gas-exporting monopoly Gazprom, Kommersant daily said on Aug. 27. (Nasdaq, 08.27.21)
• China’s state-owned CNPC has started work to set up new wells at Turkmenistan’s giant natural gas fields in exchange for future gas supplies, news reports said on Aug. 24. It will take China National Petroleum Corporation 2 1/2 years to make three new wells at the Galkynysh field operational, Turkmen media reported. Each will have a daily output of three million cubic meters of gas. (The Washington Post, 08.24.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The United States has slapped Russia with a second round of sanctions over the incident with blogger Alexei Navalny, restricting imports of firearms and ammunition from Russia as well as exports of nuclear and missile-related technology, says a statement released by State Department spokesperson Ned Price on Aug. 20. (TASS, 08.20.21)
• Moscow pledged retaliatory measures after a new set of sanctions imposed by the United States on Aug. 20 on a Russian ship and two companies involved in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement. (Reuters, 08.21.21)
• Russia would be able to challenge any U.S. move to strip Russia of its market economy status at the World Trade Organization, the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia said Aug. 23. The U.S. International Trade Administration has said it would gather information by the end of August to decide whether to treat Russia as a market economy for the purposes of its anti-dumping duty law. (Reuters, 08.23.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin has called for one-off cash payments to be awarded to Russia’s pensioners and military service personnel in a highly anticipated pre-election move. Speaking at a meeting with delegates of the ruling United Russia party, Putin called on his lawmakers to pass legislation for a 10,000 ruble ($135) payment to pensioners and a 15,000 ruble ($200) bonus to those in the military. The social payments could cost the budget more than 500 billion rubles ($6.75 billion), Andrei Makarov, a senior lawmaker, said. (The Moscow Times, 08.23.21, Reuters, 08.23.21)
• As its poll numbers drop to new lows, the Putin-supporting United Russia party faces the prospect of losing its absolute hold on power in September’s parliamentary elections. Recent polls have the faction hovering at around 25-35% support, far short of previous highs. (bne IntelliNews, 08.27.21)
• Russia is using new digital hardware to target an online app that jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny's team created to undermine the Kremlin at next month's parliamentary elections, cyber experts said. (Reuters, 08.24.21)
• Nearly two out of every five Russians have avoided buying necessities because they can’t afford them, according to a survey by the independent Levada Center pollster published on Aug. 25. (The Moscow Times, 08.26.21)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Aug. 23 that the Kremlin was not behind Russia’s labeling of the Dozhd broadcaster and the investigative site Important Stories (iStories) as “foreign agents.” Kremlin critics say the designations are part of an ongoing crackdown aimed at silencing critical voices ahead of September's parliamentary elections. Russian police detained several journalists protesting the decision in Moscow on Aug. 21. (The Moscow Times, 08.23.21, RFE/RL, 08.21.21)
  • In a text published online Aug. 27 and addressed to Putin and other senior officials, a group of independent media outlets—including Forbes, Novaya Gazeta, Dozhd and Meduza—issued six demands, including the rescinding of the law labeling certain independent media and journalists as “foreign agents.” (RFE/RL, 08.27.21)
• Russia saw the highest monthly coronavirus death toll of the pandemic in July, with 50,421 people dying from COVID-19 or related causes during the month, state statistics service Rosstat said Aug. 27. Russia recorded 820 deaths from COVID-19 on Aug. 26, its highest total since the pandemic began, as vaccination rates began to slump nationwide. (Reuters, 08.27.21, Financial Times, 08.26.21)
• Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine is holding up well against the Delta variant, a paper posted yesterday on the preprint server medRxiv shows. The study of nearly 14,000 people showed the two-dose vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalization with COVID-19 by 81% and helped prevent severe lung injury. (Science, 08.26.21)
  • The epidemiological picture in the Belgorod region provides the best real-world evidence yet that mass inoculations with Russia's Sputnik V can reduce the number of serious COVID-19 cases. Half of adults in the region have been fully vaccinated and pressure on hospitals has eased.  (Reuters, 08.25.21)
  • Russia's lowest COVID-19-related morality rate is in the armed forces, the chief of the Defense Ministry's Main Military-Medical Directorate, Dmitry Trishkin, said in a round-table discussion at the Army-2021 forum on Aug. 27. (TASS, 08.27.21)
• Igor Sechin, chief of oil giant Rosneft, has told the Kremlin that carbon border taxes like the European Union's could inflict far greater damage to Russia's economy than sanctions, the Kommersant newspaper reported. (Reuters, 08.25.21)
• A court in Russia's northwestern region of Pskov has ruled that the mass killings of Soviet citizens in the area during World War II were an act of genocide. According to the Aug. 27 court ruling, 75,000 civilians and 377,000 military personnel were killed during the war in the area, which at the time was divided between the Leningrad and Tver regions. (RFE/RL, 08.27.21)
• Russia plans to rely on its forests and swamps to absorb enough greenhouse gases to meet its climate goals while continuing to increase its carbon emissions through 2050, the Kommersant business daily reported, citing the Economic Development Ministry’s draft strategy. (The Moscow Times, 08.27.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian Northern Fleet is building up its combat potential and will receive over 230 new weapon systems this year, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Aug. 26. (TASS, 08.26.21)
• Putin on Aug. 23 launched the construction of new nuclear submarines and other warships, part of a sweeping military modernization effort amid tensions with the West. Speaking in a video call, Putin gave orders for two nuclear submarines armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles along with two diesel-powered submarines and two corvettes at shipyards in Severodvinsk, St. Petersburg and Komsomolsk-on-Amur. “We will continue to boost the potential of the Russian navy, develop its bases and infrastructure, arm it with state-of-the-art weapons,” Putin said. “A strong and sovereign Russia needs a powerful and well-balanced navy.” (AP, 08.23.21)
• A Russian Soyuz rocket has blasted into space carrying 34 new satellites from British operator Oneweb, which aims to provide broadband internet everywhere in the world. The rocket operated by Europe's Arianespace took off successfully on Aug. 21 from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, the Roscosmos space agency said in a statement. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.22.21)
• Production of the latest Floks self-propelled mortar system and Magnolia self-propelled artillery gun may begin in late 2022 and early 2023, the press office of the Uralvagonzavod defense manufacturer (part of the state tech corporation Rostec) told TASS at the Army-2021 International Military-Technical Forum on Aug. 27. (TASS, 08.27.21)
• The Sea Underwater Weapon Gidropribor company (integrated into the Tactical Missiles Corporation) unveiled an underwater drone capable of surveying the sea bottom and operating autonomously for three months at the Army 2021 International Military-Technical Forum on Aug. 27. (TASS, 08.27.21)

Emergencies, security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russian political prisoners today are subjected to psychological pressure, said the opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is forced to watch state TV for more than eight hours a day. (The New York Times, 08.25.21)
• Russia has slapped online travel agency Booking.com with a $17.5 million fine for "abusing" its dominant position in the market, a government regulator said Aug. 26. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.27.21)
• Firefighters extinguished wildfires in Russia’s regions encompassing an area of almost 332,000 hectares in the past 24 hours, while work to extinguish the blazes that engulfed almost 303,000 hectares is in progress, the Aerial Forest Protection Service said on Aug. 27. (TASS, 08.27.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia says it will not interfere in the stand-off between the Taliban and their opponents in Afghanistan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Aug. 23 that leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization member states discussed the standoff and its implications of “another civil war in Afghanistan.” He says that, “of course, no one is going to intervene in these events.” (The Washington Post, 08.23.21)
  • The Kremlin says it will wait to see how the Taliban acts after taking over Afghanistan before deciding on its position toward the militant group. Peskov told a news briefing in Moscow on Aug. 26 that Russia was interested in maintaining peace and stability in Afghanistan and would likely continue contacts with the United States on issues arising there. (RFE/RL, 08.26.21)
• The CSTO said Aug. 23 it was concerned that the Taliban had not yet started forming a transitional government in Afghanistan, a week after the group's military takeover of the country. Two Taliban sources told AFP Aug. 23 that the group would not announce the makeup of its government until the United States completed its troop withdrawal. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.23.21)
• Russia is ready to supply weapons and military hardware to its allies in the CSTO security bloc that border Afghanistan at special low prices, Russia's deputy prime minister was quoted as saying by the RIA news agency Aug. 23. (Reuters, 08.23.21)
• Putin has ordered Russia’s Defense Ministry to begin evacuating Russian citizens from Kabul as the Kremlin expressed increased concern at the security situation in Afghanistan. Moscow has sent four military transport planes to evacuate more than 500 people, the Defense Ministry said, including Russians and citizens of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine. (Financial Times, 08.25.21)
• Britain would have to turn to Russia and China to exercise a "moderating influence" over the Taliban, despite a mistrust between the U.K. and those governments, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said. (Reuters, 08.21.21)
• Nigeria and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal providing a legal framework for the supply of equipment and the training of troops, the Nigerian Embassy in Moscow said. (Reuters, 08.25.21)
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a farewell visit to the Kremlin on Aug. 20, insisting after a three-hour meeting with Putin that “communication channels must remain open” despite political differences. Merkel, who speaks Russian and has been Putin’s closest confidant among Western leaders, observed that Russia’s and Germany’s political systems had “drifted further apart” in her 16 years in office. (The New York Times, 08.20.21)
• Russia’s state arms seller Rosoboronexport, part of the state tech corporation Rostec, intends to make an offer to India to upgrade Project 11356 Talwar-class guided missile frigates built by Russia for the Indian Navy, Rosoboronexport Chief Alexander Mikheyev told TASS at the Army-2021 International Military-Technical Forum. (TASS, 08.27.21)
• A Russian man has asked Japan for political asylum after making a treacherous trip in a rubber dinghy from the disputed Kurile Islands. (RFE/RL, 08.23.21)
• Russia will deliver Pantsir missile defense systems to Myanmar on schedule as outlined in the relevant sales contract, the RIA news agency cited the head of Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation as saying. The truck-mounted systems are used to shoot down aircraft, drones and cruise missiles. (Reuters, 08.25.21)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Aug. 22 that the soon-to-be completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline carrying Russian gas to Europe was "a dangerous geopolitical weapon." Merkel has sought to assuage Ukrainian concerns over the pipeline, saying Germany would not allow Russia to weaponize the gas corridor, and backed extending an energy partnership deal with Ukraine once it expires in 2024. Merkel also advocated working to get a leaders’ meeting involving Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France on the situation in eastern Ukraine, the first since late 2019. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.22.21, Financial Times, 08.22.21, RFE/RL, 08.22.21, AP, 08.22.21)
• The energy ministers of Ukraine, the U.S. and Germany discussed guarantees for Ukraine about its future as a transit country after the construction of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Ukraine's energy chief said Aug. 23. (Reuters, 08.23.21)
• Ukraine on Aug. 23 blocked the websites of several prominent Russian media outlets in its latest round of sanctions against neighboring Russia, which it has accused of spreading propaganda. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.23.21)
• In his opening remarks at the international Crimean Platform summit Aug. 23, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told government delegations from 45 countries, including the U.S., all member-states of the EU and Great Britain, that Crimea, together with Ukraine, should become part of Europe and vowed to do "everything possible" to return Crimea to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.23.21)
• Russian authorities have detained a Ukrainian citizen on suspicion of espionage in the city of Tula, some 200 kilometers south of Moscow. The FSB said Aug. 23 that the man, whose identity was not revealed, is suspected of collecting classified data related to Russia's latest firearms technologies for Ukraine's secret services. (RFE/RL, 08.23.21)
• Ukraine celebrated its independence day on Aug. 24 with a military parade and massive festivities in the capital Kyiv. Opening the parade, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that a strong Ukraine is “a country that dreams ambitiously and acts decisively. … Such a country becomes NATO’s Enhanced Opportunities Partner; such a country is officially supported by others when it applies to join the European Union,” Zelenskiy said. (The Washington Post, 08.24.21)
• Russia has launched a probe into what it called "ecocide" over Ukraine's decision to suspend water deliveries to Russia-annexed Crimea. (RFE/RL, 08.25.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has allocated almost $1 billion in reserve funds to Belarus, the IMF said Aug. 23. The payout comes despite last-ditch attempts by opponents of the embattled Lukashenko regime to block the transaction, fearing it could embolden the strongman leader and further escalate the wave of repression in Belarus. (The Moscow Times, 08.23.21)
• In an opinion piece published in The New York Times on Aug. 23, Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tsikhanovskaya has called for increased support against authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, saying his autocratic regime threatens to spread chaos across Europe. (RFE/RL, 08.23.21)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu says Moldova wants its relations with Russia to be based on pragmatism and will work to prevent a destabilization of the situation with regard to the frozen conflict between Chisinau and its Moscow-backed breakaway region, Transdniester. (RFE/RL, 08.23.21)