Russia in Review, Aug. 3-10, 2018
This Week’s Highlights:
- The U.S. State Department will be imposing fresh sanctions on Russia over the poisoning of a Russian double agent and his daughter in Britain. The first tranche of sanctions, targeting U.S. exports of sensitive national-security related goods, will take effect on Aug. 22. The second tranche will be activated after 90 days. Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev warned that such measures would be “a declaration of economic war” as the Russian ruble fell to a two-year low against the U.S. dollar.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin presented U.S. President Donald Trump with a series of arms control proposals in Helsinki last month, including extending the New START treaty, reaffirming commitment to the INF treaty, taking measures to prevent incidents while conducting military activities in Europe and banning weapons in space.
- A meeting between Russian and U.S. lawmakers could take place as soon as this fall, Konstantin Kosachev, head of the foreign relations committee in Russia’s upper house of parliament, said during U.S. Sen. Rand Paul’s visit to Moscow.
- Greece has decided to recall its ambassador from Russia, Andreas Friganas, after Moscow responded to Athens’ decision to expel two Russian diplomats and bar two other people from entering the country by expelling two Greek diplomats and barring another one from entering the country.
- Vladimir Zelensky, the comedian who plays a Ukrainian teacher who becomes the president of the country in the television show "Servant of the People,” is in some polls Ukraine's second most popular presidential candidate, beaten only by veteran populist Yulia Tymoshenko. Petro Poroshenko, the incumbent, scores just 5 percent.
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda
Nuclear security and safety:
- No significant developments.
North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:
- Russia and China have blocked a U.S. proposal to add a Russian bank and Moscow-based North Korean banker to a U.N. blacklist. Both Russia and China raised objections late on Aug. 9 to a U.S. request for an asset freeze on Agrosoyuz Commercial Bank for allegedly helping North Korea evade U.N.-imposed restrictions on financial transactions. The U.S. request also targeted Ri Jong Won, the deputy representative of North Korea's Foreign Trade Bank in Moscow, and what it said were two North Korean front companies, mirroring sanctions Washington imposed on the Russian bank and other entities last week. (RFE/RL, 08.10.18)
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has blasted the latest sanctions efforts coming out of Washington, contending that experience has shown such sanctions "do not work." Ryabkov's comments came after the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions targeted against a Russian bank and two North Korean bankers living in Moscow, saying that they, among others, had not complied with U.N. sanctions imposed on North Korea last year. The U.S. has called on Russia to comply with the sanctions, citing "deeply troubling" reports that Moscow has granted new work permits to North Korean laborers that are barred under the sanctions. (RFE/RL, 08.04.18, RFE/RL, 08.04.18)
- Three South Koreans illegally imported North Korean coal and iron via Russia in violation of sanctions, South Korean customs officials said, exposing a crack in the U.S.-led campaign to cut off trade with North Korea. (Wall Street Journal, 08.10.18)
Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:
- Russia has challenged the U.S. over its reintroduction of unilateral sanctions against Tehran, saying it would seek to work with other countries to preserve and expand economic exchanges with Iran. “We are taking appropriate measures on a national level to protect [our] trade and economic co-operation with Iran. We also continue to develop on joint solutions together with other participants of the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] aimed at the preservation and expansion of international trade and financial cooperation with Iran,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said Aug. 7. (Financial Times, 08.07.18)
Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:
- U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has presented details of plans to create a U.S. Space Force by 2020 that would become the sixth branch of the military. He said a Space Force was a crucial element to countering Russia and China, which he said were "aggressively" working to develop antisatellite capabilities. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- The Pentagon's top engineer criticized Russia and China this week for militarizing space, a move the Trump administration wants to address with the formation of a sixth service branch dubbed Space Force. "We are not the people who choose to weaponize space, but if we are challenged we will respond," Michael Griffin said. (CNBC, 08.10.18)
- The Russian Embassy appeared to boldly troll the U.S. on Aug. 10 following the Trump administration's announcement of a Space Force. "Good Morning, Space Forces!" the tweet reads, followed by the image and a link to the Russian Space Forces website. (CNN, 08.10.18)
- "You can't call them [Russia and China] our friends if they're building weapons that can destroy the United States of America," commander of the U.S. Strategic Command Gen. John Hyten said, adding that the Pentagon has nearly a dozen programs tasked with developing and defending against the new breed of weapons. (CNBC, 08.08.18)
- A Spanish air force Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft accidently fired an AIM-120 advanced medium range air-to-air missile while flying near Otepää in Estonia, less than 50 kilometers west of the Russian border. According to a statement by Estonian Defense Forces, the missile was equipped with an automatic destruct mechanism intended to destroy the missile if it were accidentally discharged, but officials could not confirm if the missile had been destroyed. (Aviationist, 08.08.18)
- Senior American national security officials, seeking to prevent U.S. President Donald Trump from upending a formal policy agreement at last month's NATO meeting, pushed the alliance's ambassadors to complete it before the forum even began. The work to preserve the NATO agreement, which is usually subject to intense 11th-hour negotiations, came just weeks after Trump refused to sign off on a communiqué from the June meeting of the Group of 7 in Canada. (New York Times, 08.09.18)
- Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama says NATO has decided to spend 50 million euros ($58 million) to modernize the country's air base in Kucove. (RFE/RL, 08.04.18)
Missile defense:
- No significant developments.
Nuclear arms control:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin presented U.S. President Donald Trump with a series of requests during their private meeting in Helsinki last month, including new talks on controlling nuclear arms and prohibiting weapons in space, according to a Russian document obtained by Politico. Russia proposes that the two countries consider extending the New START treaty by five years and provides an outline for a pitch to “reaffirm commitment” to agreements covering “intermediate-range missiles” in the INF treaty. The document also raises the prospect of a new space treaty that bars weapons in orbit and proposes that Washington and Moscow "take measures in order to prevent incidents while conducting military activities in Europe, as well as to increase trust and transparency in the military sphere." (Politico, 08.07.18)
Counter-terrorism:
- No significant developments.
Conflict in Syria:
- Russia has used a closely guarded communications channel with America's top general to propose cooperation on rebuilding Syria and repatriating refugees to the war-torn country, according to a U.S. government memo. The proposal was sent in a July 19 letter by Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian military's General Staff, to U.S. Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In the letter, Gerasimov said Moscow was ready to discuss with Damascus safety guarantees for refugees stranded at Rukban, as well as creating conditions for their return home. The plan has received an icy reception in Washington. The memo said the U.S. policy was only to support such efforts if there were a political solution to end Syria's seven-year-old civil war, including steps like U.N.-supervised elections. (Reuters, 08.03.18, Reuters, 08.04.18)
- Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone on Aug. 10 with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and discussed the situation in Syria. The presidents discussed humanitarian aid to the war-torn country, the Kremlin said. (Channel News Asia, 08.10.18)
- Russia’s special presidential representative for the Middle East and Africa, Mikhail Bogdanov, and a delegation from the International Federation of Kurdish Communities led by its chairman Knyaz Mirzoyev have met to discuss the Kurdish issue in light of developments in Iraq and Syria and interactions among representatives of Kurdish nongovernmental groups in Russia and Central Asia. (Interfax, 08.06.18)
- A delegation from Abkhazia began a working visit to Syria on Aug. 6 to discuss Abkhaz leader Raul Khajimba’s visit to Syria. (Interfax, 08.06.18)
Cyber security:
- A top Russian court has upheld the Federal Security Service’s right to demand encryption keys from Telegram. (The Moscow Times, 08.09.18)
- More than 80,000 IT-related crimes were recorded in Russia between January and June 2018. (TASS, 08.10.18)
- The ringleader of the Shaltai Boltai hacking collective notorious for blackmailing top Russian officials has reportedly been granted early release from prison under a new law that counts time served in pre-trial detention towards a sentence. (The Moscow Times, 08.07.18)
- A honeytrap hacker attempted to steal secrets about Britain's stealth fighter jets through Tinder. A Royal Air Force (RAF) woman's dating profile was hijacked by a suspected spy who then got in touch with another RAF serviceman to try and sweet talk details of the F-35 stealth fighter out of him. (Telegraph, 08.05.18)
Elections interference:
- The White House is drafting an executive order that would authorize U.S. President Donald Trump to sanction foreigners who interfere in U.S. elections, the administration's latest effort to demonstrate it is serious about combating Russian disinformation and hacking. The draft order appears to be an effort to stave off aggressive legislation, including a bill introduced in Congress this month—and to quell criticism that Trump seems to give more credence to Russian President Vladimir Putin's denials of interference than to U.S. intelligence agencies' conclusion that the Kremlin sought to undermine the 2016 election. (The Washington Post, 08.09.18)
- U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged on Aug. 5 that a meeting his son held with a Russian government lawyer in June 2016 was an attempt "to get information on" Hillary Clinton but defended the encounter as "totally legal." Trump and his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., have repeatedly denied that the president had advance knowledge of the Trump Tower meeting. (Wall Street Journal, 08.05.18)
- Before U.S. President Donald Trump headed to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein requested a meeting. He was ready to indict Russian officials for election hacking and wanted to know if the president wanted the Justice Department to announce the charges before or after the trip. Trump told Rosenstein to issue the statement as soon as possible, adding that it would strengthen his position in talks with Moscow. The moment was the latest indication of a significant change in the rapport between the two men, who talk once or twice a week. (Wall Street Journal, 08.08.18)
- The U.S. State Department has called in Russia's chargé d'affaires in Washington over what it says are Moscow’s efforts to use social media to “promote violence” and divide U.S. society. Russia criticized the summons, calling it "megaphone diplomacy." In a tweet on Aug. 5, spokeswoman Heather Nauert wrote: "Assistant Secretary [Wess] Mitchell convoked #Russia Chargé [Dmitry] Zhirnov to answer for the Kremlin's attempts to use social media accounts to promote violent and divisive causes in the U.S.—we will not tolerate this aggressive interference." (RFE/RL, 08.06.18)
- Russian operatives have penetrated Florida’s election system, and could delete voters' registration documents ahead of the November elections if the systems are not adequately protected, the state's senators are warning. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- Kristin Davis who once ran an upscale New York City escort service was to appear on Aug. 10 before a federal grand jury that is hearing evidence in the wide-ranging inquiry into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign. Davis was interviewed last week by officials from the office of special counsel Robert Mueller. (New York Times, 08.06.18)
- Andrew Miller, a former aide to longtime Trump confidant Roger Stone, is being held in contempt for refusing to testify before the grand jury hearing evidence in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. (The Washington Post, 08.10.18)
- A fund set up to help pay legal expenses incurred by aides to U.S. President Donald Trump drawn into the Russia investigation raised about $200,000 in four months, with most of the money coming from some of the president's most prolific donors. (The Washington Post, 08.06.18)
- U.S. President Donald Trump’s allies are mounting a fresh line of attack against special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russian interference probe, zeroing in on ties between senior Justice Department official Bruce Ohr and the Washington research firm Democrats hired to investigate Trump. (ABC News, 08.09.18)
Energy exports:
- In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency said Russian crude and condensate production climbed by 150,000 barrels a day last month, to 11.21 million barrels a day. That "significantly sharper acceleration than expected" put output 265,000 barrels a day higher year-on-year and just 14,000 barrels a day lower than Russia's October 2016 record high. (Wall Street Journal, 08.10.18)
- On Aug. 12, the leaders of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan will meet in the Kazakh port city of Aqtau, reportedly to sign a new convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, which hides some 50 billion barrels of oil and nearly 9 trillion cubic meters of gas in proven or probable reserves. The agreement will reportedly include a requirement that all littoral states consent to the construction of trans-Caspian pipelines, which is not necessarily good news for Turkmenistan, a country desperate for pipeline access to Europe but unlikely to get permission from the bigger regional players like Russia and Iran. (RFE/RL, 08.10.18, BMB Russia, 08.10.18)
- The Russia-led Nord Stream 2 consortium said on Aug. 10 it has applied to Denmark for an alternative gas pipeline route through the Baltic Sea that would avoid the Nordic state’s territorial waters. (Reuters, 08.10.18)
- Russia largely failed in its bid to overturn the EU’s gas market rules in a World Trade Organization ruling published Aug. 10. (Reuters, 08.10.18)
Bilateral economic ties:
- American billionaire Stan Kroenke has struck a deal to take soccer team Arsenal private by buying out Russian rival and minority investor Alisher Usmanov in a move that values the English Premier League club at around $2.3 billion. (Reuters, 08.07.18)
Other bilateral issues:
- The U.S. State Department said on Aug. 8 it would impose fresh sanctions by the month's end after determining that Moscow had used a nerve agent against a former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter, Yulia, in Britain, something Moscow denies. The new sanctions come in two tranches. The first, which targets U.S. exports of sensitive national-security related goods, comes with deep exemptions and many of the items it covers have already been banned by previous restrictions. A senior official said the new sanctions targeted export licenses of sensitive U.S. technologies and industrial equipment. The official said requests for licenses to export such goods to Russia would now be "presumptively denied." This first tranche would take effect on Aug. 22. The second tranche, activated after 90 days if Moscow fails to provide "reliable assurances" it will no longer use chemical weapons and allow on-site inspections by the U.N. or other international observer groups, is more serious. Unless Russia agrees within 90 days to stop all use of chemical weapons and permit inspections to confirm their elimination, the law requires the U.S. to choose from a range of additional measures, including withdrawal of U.S. support for international loans and U.S. bank loans, prohibition of landing rights for Russian airlines and suspension of diplomatic relations. (The Moscow Times, 08.09.18, RFE/RL, 08.09.18, The Washington Post, 08.09.18)
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia's Security Council have described possible new U.S. sanctions against Moscow as "absolutely illegal," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying. Peskov said Putin and the members of the Security Council discussed "possible new unfriendly steps by Washington" at a meeting on Aug. 10. (RFE/RL, 08.10.18)
- "This sort of decision by the American side is an absolutely unfriendly act," Peskov told reporters. "It can scarcely be associated in any way with the constructive—not easy but constructive—atmosphere at the most recent meeting of the two presidents." (The Washington Post, 08.09.18)
- “I would not want to comment on discussions of future sanctions, but I can say one thing: If something happens of the kind of a ban on bank’s activities or on the use of a certain currency, then we can call that quite straightforward by its name, that’s a declaration of economic war,” Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev was quoted as saying. “And to that war we will definitely have to react—with economic means, political means and if necessary also with other means.” (Financial Times, 08.10.18)
- Russia says it is preparing "countermeasures" to what it calls "categorically unacceptable" new sanctions being imposed by the U.S. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- Russia’s central bank said on Aug. 10 it would temporarily restrict foreign currency purchases to ease pressure on the ruble after worries over fresh U.S. sanctions sent it to a two-year low. The ruble slumped to nearly 67 to the dollar, its lowest level since July 2016, in trading on Aug. 10 following U.S. plans to impose severe trade restrictions. (Financial Times, 08.10.18)
- The Moscow Exchange’s benchmark dollar-denominated RTS index shed 3.5 percent in early trading on Aug. 9 to its lowest level since April, before recovering to be down 2.1 percent. The ruble-denominated MOEX index fell as much as 1.5 percent before making up most of those losses. (Financial Times, 08.09.18)
- Aeroflot fell the most in the MOEX Russia Index, dropping as much as 12 percent in Moscow before recovering to trade down 4.4 percent as of 12:08 p.m. Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska saw his companies En+ Group and Rusal lose half their value after being targeted by a previous wave of U.S. sanctions in April. (Bloomberg, 08.09.18)
- The head of the foreign-relations committee of Russia's senate, Konstantin Kosachev, compared the new sanctions to a "lynching." (Wall Street Journal,. 08.09.18)
- Vladimir Vasiliev, senior fellow at Moscow's Institute of U.S. and Canadian Studies, told state television Aug. 9: "We are reaching a point of no return in our relations and I don't see any base for improving them." (Wall Street Journal, 08.09.18)
- Russia will be able to weather new sanctions from the U.S. following a series of steps it took to reduce its vulnerability to future penalties, Moody’s analyst Kristin Lindow said in reference to the legislation introduced by several U.S. senators last. The legislation aims at further penalizing the Russian energy sector and uranium imports, as well as banning the purchase of new Russian sovereign debt. If the bill under consideration by U.S. legislators passes, Lindow predicted that markets would see an initial shock but eventually adjust. Analysts with Barclays and Oxford Economics echoed Moody’s assessment that the Russian economy has the capacity to withstand new sanctions. (The Moscow Times, 08.07.18)
- Russian aluminum giant Rusal said on Aug. 6 that operations at the Nadvoitsky aluminum smelter in Russia's Karelia region cannot continue because the plant stands to lose U.S. customers under the sanctions as well as a steady supply of raw materials. (RFE/RL, 08.07.18)
- The U.S. State Department is considering whether to impose sanctions on Russian oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov amid charges that his company Sistema built projects in Crimea since it was illegally annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014. (RFE/RL, 08.08.18)
- Russia’s consumer rights watchdog has imposed thousands of dollars in fines on McDonald’s fast food restaurants in Moscow following a mass inspection revealing widespread health code violations. Forty-four McDonald’s restaurants across Moscow have been fined 5.5 million rubles ($86,500) between April and June 2018. (The Moscow Times, 08.08.18)
- U.S. Republican Sen. Rand Paul says he delivered a letter from U.S. President Donald Trump intended for Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin during Paul’s trip to Moscow. "The letter emphasized the importance of further engagement in various areas including countering terrorism, enhancing legislative dialogue and resuming cultural exchanges," Paul added. In Moscow, Paul met with several Russian senators including Sergey Kislyak, Russia's former envoy to Washington. In a meeting at Russia's upper house of parliament, Paul also invited Russian lawmakers to meet with U.S. Congress members, in Washington or elsewhere. "I think this is incredibly important," Paul said after the high-profile sit-down. That meeting could take place as soon as this fall, said Konstantin Kosachev, head of the foreign relations committee in Russia’s upper house of parliament. (The Washington Post, 08.06.18, RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- At least seven Russian nationals have been indicted in the U.S. on suspicion of money laundering and conspiracy to commit fraud for running a fake car dealership and collecting $4.5 million from unsuspecting victims. The Russian Consulate in New York said Aug. 6 that the FBI had detained four of the seven Russians on charges of duping victims into paying deposits on cars they never received and then creating shell companies to launder the money out of the U.S. (The Moscow Times, 08.07.18)
- Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Aug. 4 it had made U.S. actor Steven Seagal its special representative for Russian-U.S. humanitarian ties, a role it said was meant to deepen cultural, art and youth ties between the two countries. Prosecutors in California say they are reviewing sexual assault allegations against Seagal and two other celebrities. (Reuters, 08.05.18, RFE/RL, 08.10.18)
II. Russia’s domestic news
Politics, economy and energy:
- See “Other bilateral issues” section for performance of Russian currency and markets following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions on Russia.
- Russia’s economy grew 1.8 percent in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, the Federal Statistics Service said Aug. 10 in its first GDP estimate for the three months ending June 30. (Financial Times, 08.10.18)
- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 3 signed into law a measure that will increase the country's value-added tax from 18 to 20 percent as of Jan. 1, 2019. (RFE/RL, 08.04.18)
- Rosneft reported a more than tripling of second-quarter net profit and record free cash flow, as it pledged an end to costly acquisitions in favor of focusing on efficiency and organic growth. Second-quarter results that showed a 235 percent increase in net profit to 228 billion rubles, the highest for more than four years. Rosneft shares have risen almost 50 percent in 2018, thanks to higher oil prices and a weakening ruble. (Financial Times, 08.07.18)
- More than 26,000 metric tons of food have been destroyed in the three years since the Russian government launched an embargo on imported agricultural products from Western countries in retaliation for sanctions. (The Moscow Times, 08.06.18)
- Russian companies routinely face harassment from law-enforcement officials seeking to extort money or expropriate businesses, according to business owners, lawyers and activists. One in six Russian business owners is facing criminal prosecution, according to Aleksandr Khurudzhi, who works for an agency the Kremlin set up in 2012 to help entrepreneurs. (Wall Street Journal, 08.07.18)
- An advanced nuclear icebreaker more befitting a science fiction movie than the high seas will be built in Vladivostok. Russian President Vladimir Putin will announce the start of the Lider’s construction next month on a planned trip to Vladivostok’s annual economic forum. (Bellona, 08.07.18)
- Russian election officials have cleared three proposals to hold a referendum on the controversial plan to raise the retirement age, moving forward the first referendums approved in 25 years. Russian opposition politician Aleksei Navalny has called for mass demonstrations across Russia next month against the unpopular plan. (The Moscow Times, 08.08.18, RFE/RL, 08.07.18)
- A deeply unpopular government plan to raise retirement ages in Russia for the first time in 90 years has created an unusual schism within the ruling United Russia party. A senior lawmaker, Sergei Zheleznyak, was forced to resign as deputy secretary of the party after skipping the first vote on the bill. Party members have asked Natalya Poklonskaya, a nationalist who broke with her party by voting against the reform bill, to resign from parliament. (New York Times, 08.08.18)
- Three Russian television journalists killed in the Central African Republic last month while investigating the activities of a clandestine firm of Russian private military contractors were laid to rest in Moscow on Aug. 7. Orhan Dzhemal, Alexander Rastorguyev and Kirill Radchenko were killed about 200 kilometers (125 miles) northeast of the capital Bangui. (Reuters, 08.07.18)
- Thousands of people gathered in the Chechen village of Geldagen for the burial of Yusup Temerkhanov, a native of the village who died on Aug. 3 in a Russian prison while serving a 15-year sentence for the 2011 murder of notorious Russian Col. Yury Budanov. (RFE/RL, 08.04.18)
- The Moscow office of the Open Russia civic movement established by exiled former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky was searched by the police on Aug. 9. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- Maria Alyokhina, a member of the Russian punk protest band Pussy Riot, managed to travel from Moscow to Britain, defying what the group said was an order prohibiting her from leaving the country. (RFE/RL, 08.10.18)
Defense and aerospace:
- No significant developments.
Security, law-enforcement and justice:
- Russia must halt frequent torture of detainees and prosecute perpetrators, including prison guards caught on video beating an inmate that led to a public outcry, U.N. human rights investigators said on Aug. 10. The U.N. Committee Against Torture, in a rare move, told Russian authorities to report back in a year on the emblematic case of guards beating Yevgeny Makarov with truncheons and on harassment of activists and journalists. (Reuters, 08.10.18)
- Independent prison monitors have uncovered widespread abuse at several prisons and detention centers in St. Petersburg that they say are part of a broader pattern of ill-treatment. The St. Petersburg branch of the prison watchdog Public Monitoring Commission published excerpts of its field report detailing alleged violence and “inhuman conditions” dating back to 2015. The abuse includes beatings, torture using electric shock and the systematic ignoring of complaints from detainees. (The Moscow Times, 08.07.18)
- Two inmates have been found dead in a penal colony in Russia's Siberian region of Zabaikalye, where guards have been previously accused of torturing inmates. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- Convict Yevgeny Makarov, whose violent beating by prison guards was caught on video and led to a mass outcry over prison torture in Russia, has been placed in solitary confinement for allegedly refusing to clean a prison bathroom on camera, reports a prison watchdog group. (The Moscow Times, 08.08.18)
- Five members of a criminal group infamous for a string of roadside attacks reminiscent of the “Grand Theft Auto” video games have been sentenced to life in jail, or 20 years in one case, by a court in Moscow on Aug. 9. The defendants, many from post-Soviet Central Asian countries, are accused of killing 17 people in the Moscow and Kaluga regions between 2012 and 2014. (The Moscow Times, 08.09.18)
- Russian courts found 99.8 percent of defendants guilty, according to court data, and are ripe for hijacking using fabricated cases, lawyers and activists say. Business owners often prefer to cut a deal rather than end up in court. (Wall Street Journal, 08.07.18)
III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment
Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:
- Updated Aug. 15: This digest originally included a story saying that a Levada Center poll conducted in July 2018 found that only 16 percent of Russian respondents support Putin’s foreign policy. This was not a correct representation of the poll. Instead, it found that 16 percent of respondents said they were drawn to Putin most of all for his foreign policy (and another 17 percent for his defense of Russia's national interests). The poll results, in Russian, are here.
- Britain is preparing to ask Russia to extradite two men it suspects carried out a nerve-agent attack on a former Russian spy in the city of Salisbury, The Guardian has reported. U.K. prosecutors have reportedly completed an extradition request and it is ready for submission. The Russian Embassy in Britain said it had not received an official request from London. (RFE/RL, 08.07.18)
- Russia said on Aug. 6 it had summoned Greece's ambassador Andreas Friganas to Moscow and told him it was responding in kind to what it called an unfriendly decision by Athens to expel two Russian diplomats and bar two more from entering Greece. Moscow had expelled Greece's trade representative as well as a Greek diplomatic employee responsible for the country's communications policy in Russia. A senior official from Greece’s Foreign Ministry had also been banned from entering Russia, RIA cited the same source as saying. In response to the expulsions of its diplomats, the Greek government decided to recall its ambassador from Moscow, Gazeta.ru reported Aug. 10. The recalling of the ambassador is particularly notable, given that Greece was among one of the handful of EU countries who reportedly declined to take any steps over poisoning of the Skripals while 23 countries expelled over 115 diplomats. Russia denies any role in poisoning of the Skripals. (Reuters, 08.06.18, Al Jazeera, 08.10.18, Russia Matters, 08.10.18)
- Pakistan and Russia have reached a military cooperation deal that includes sending Pakistani soldiers to Russia for training, the countries' defense ministries have announced. (RFE/RL, 08.10.18)
- Russia has come out in support of Saudi Arabia in its dispute with Canada over Riyadh's arrest of women's rights activists, saying it was "unacceptable" for Ottawa to lecture the kingdom on human rights. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- For the first time, the Philippine Navy will deploy a ship to Russia for a port visit, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana confirmed Aug. 9. (Philippine Star, 08.09.18)
- Russian internet company Mail.Ru Group said Aug. 6 that it would sell its carpooling platform to France's BlaBlaCar as part of a long-term strategic partnership between the two companies. (Wall Street Journal, 08.06.18)
China:
- Financial Times columnist Jamil Anderlini: “This idea that Russia and China can never really be friends is just as wrong and dangerous as the Cold War dogma that portrayed global communism as an unshakeable monolith. … American institutions, and whoever succeeds Mr. Trump as president, must recognize how serious a threat the nascent Sino-Russian alliance is to U.S. interests—and the current world order.” (Financial Times, 08.09.18)
Ukraine:
- Before he became the victor in Ukraine’s 2014 snap presidential election, businessman Petro Poroshenko was scrambling to put together a winning campaign. That's when his top strategist met with Paul Manafort. "We had a meeting, yes, but no relationship" with Manafort’s team, Poroshenko spokeswoman Darya Khudyakova confirmed to RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 08.08.18)
- Rick Gates, the U.S. government's star witness in its financial-fraud prosecution of Gates' former boss, Paul Manafort, has concluded three days of testimony and often withering cross-examination, detailing how a Ukrainian political party failed to pay $2.4 million in 2015, pushing Manafort into dire financial straits. By 2016, Manafort was broke. His longtime cash cow, former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, was out of office, living in exile. Manafort had $1 million in clothing debt alone, his business was hemorrhaging money and he was angling for bank loans to stay afloat. He was in such bad shape that one of his accountants, Cynthia Laporta, who testified on Aug. 10, said she had agreed in 2015 to fraudulently lower his reported income on a tax return because she had been told he was unable to pay what he owed. She saved him about a half-million dollars in taxes. (New York Times, 08.03.18, RFE/RL, 08.08.18)
- A bipartisan U.S. congressional caucus has called for the immediate release of Ukrainian journalist and blogger Stanislav Aseyev said to have been imprisoned on spying charges for more than a year in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- French President Emmanuel Macron was to discuss jailed Ukrainian film director Oleg Sentsov with Vladimir Putin on Aug. 10. Meanwhile, the Kremlin said on Aug. 9 it had received a letter from Sentsov’s mother asking Putin to pardon her son. Sentsov said in a letter to his cousin that he is barely hanging on to life. (Reuters, 08.09.18, Reuters, 08.09.18)
- Belarusian writer and Nobel Literature Prize winner Svetlana Alexievich says she has canceled her meeting with readers in the Ukrainian city of Odessa amid threats. The Myrotvorets site accused Alexievich of "propagating interethnic discord and manipulating information important for society" in a speech she delivered in Brooklyn, New York, in 2016. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- Vladimir Zelensky, the comedian who plays a Ukrainian teacher who becomes the president of the country in the television show "Servant of the People,” is in some polls Ukraine's second most popular presidential candidate, beaten only by veteran populist Yulia Tymoshenko. Petro Poroshenko, the incumbent, scores just 5 percent. The election may not be until next March, but the jostling for power is in full swing. (The Economist, 08.04.18)
- Ukraine’s transport authorities are still considering the possibility of cutting train connection with Russia, though railway services are highly profitable, Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Vladimir Omelyan said Aug. 6. According to the Ukrainian Railways company, rail routes to Russia were the most profitable in 2017. (TASS, 08.06.18)
Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:
- Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili laid a wreath at a ceremony to honor fallen soldiers in the brief war with Russia 10 years ago. He offered condolences on Aug. 8 to family members at the Mukhatgverdi military cemetery north of Tbilisi. (RFE/RL, 08.08.18)
- Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili says that Russia's motive in the five-day war with Tbilisi a decade ago was to attack "Georgian statehood," asserting that Moscow was concerned because reforms had made the South Caucasus country a "role model" for others in the region. (RFE/RL, 08.06.18)
- Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: “I told Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili—privately—that the Russians would try to provoke him and that, given the circumstances on the ground, he could not count on a military response from NATO. I did not ‘blame’ him for the crisis—and I still do not. This was simply a statement of fact in an attempt to temper the actions of the Georgians, whose passions were understandably inflamed.” (The Washington Post, 08.08.18)
- Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Aug. 6 that any future NATO decision to admit Georgia to its ranks could trigger "a terrible conflict" and questioned why the alliance would consider such a move. (The Moscow Times, 08.07.18)
- Of Russians who are familiar with the Russia-Georgia war, 34 percent said they hold Georgian leadership liable, while 24 percent of respondents accused the U.S. and NATO of starting the war. Only 8 percent of respondents named Russia the aggressor, while the majority maintained that Russia “did its utmost to avoid bloodshed.” (The Moscow Times, 08.06.18)
- A group of several dozen people attacked nine gay-rights activists in Armenia's Syunik region. (RFE/RL, 08.04.18)
- The brother of Armenia's former prime minister Hovik Abrahamian was arrested on suspicion of illegal arms procurement and possession. (RFE/RL, 08.09.18)
- Officials in Tajikistan have released the names of five men they say carried out a July 29 attack that left four foreign cyclists dead and three injured. The Aug. 3 statement said that Hussein Abdusamadov—who is accused of being the ringleader of the group—was detained and the other four men were killed during a police operation to capture them on the night of July 29-30. Prosecutors identified the five suspects as Abdusamadov, Asomiddin Majidov and Zafar Safarov from the Panj District and two brothers from the town of Nurek, Asliddin and Jafar Yusupov. (RFE/RL, 08.03.18)
- Human rights groups have called on the Tajik government to lift a "politically motivated travel ban" on an independent activist's family and to put an end to its "vicious campaign of intimidation" against dissidents' relatives. Seven watchdogs, including Human Rights Watch, said on Aug. 7 that security services forced Shabnam Hudoidodova's 10-year-old daughter, elderly mother and brother off an airplane at Tajikistan's main airport last week. (RFE/RL, 08.07.18)
- Commercial flights have resumed between the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, and the Uzbek city of Bukhara amid improving ties between the two Central Asian neighbors. (RFE/RL, 08.06.18)
- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev has appointed Nurlan Ermekbaev as the new defense minister. (RFE/RL, 08.07.18)
- From 2000 to 2010, Kazakhstan had the second-fastest growing economy in the world after Qatar. (The National Interest, 08.07.18)
- Kazakhstan has withdrawn the operating licenses of almost 90 foreign television channels over "the failure to comply with a new law on registration." The Ministry of Information and Communications said on Aug. 8 that the registration certificates of 88 television channels, including numerous Russian channels, had been withdrawn. (RFE/RL, 08.08.18)
- The Belarusian government is cracking down on journalists who report without its permission, issuing the most fines since the country's independence and adopting a restrictive online media law, according to the Belarusian Association of Journalists. (The Washington Post, 08.04.18)
- In recent years, Russia has zeroed in on the opportunities for influence operations in the Balkans, specifically in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a Western-aligned country that is vulnerable to destabilization, especially with elections approaching in October. The most intensive cooperation between Bosnian Serbs and Russia is channeled through the Republika Srpska security forces. The region is not permitted to have its own military, under the terms of the Dayton agreement that ended the Bosnian war in 1995. But it does maintain its own police force—one that has an increasingly close relationship with Moscow. For example, under the pretext of counterterrorism, Republika Srpska has been strengthening that force in ways that resemble outright militarization, sometimes with Russia’s help. (Foreign Policy, 08.08.18)
IV. Quoteworthy
- “Russia is not the old Soviet Union," said Geoff Diehl, a Republican candidate vying to face U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Congressional elections this fall. “To me, the bigger threat is someone like Elizabeth Warren." (The Boston Globe, 08.07.18)