Russia in Review, Aug. 30-Sept. 6, 2019

This Week's Highlights:

  • Eighteen Russian regions are scheduled to hold gubernatorial elections this Sunday and 13 will hold elections to local legislatures. Voters in Moscow will elect a new city council, choosing from among more than 200 hopefuls, but with most of the main opposition candidates excluded from the ballot, according to The Washington Post. Meanwhile, Russian authorities have begun handing jail sentences to activists on protest-related charges after they took to the streets in support of fair elections. A Sept. 3 survey by the Levada Center showed that 45 percent of respondents felt independent candidates had been kept off the ballot because Moscow authorities "are in competition" with them, RFE/RL reports. Almost one-third of respondents (32 percent) dismissed claims of Western interference as attempts to smear election protests, according to the survey.
  • Journalists in northern Russia say they have measured high levels of radiation near two abandoned barges, which were reportedly brought ashore after last month’s mysterious explosion at an Arkhangelsk region military testing range, Bellona reports. One of the barges carries a special container for transporting radioactive waste, according to photos obtained and published by RFE/RL.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia will produce missiles banned until last month’s termination of the INF Treaty, but would deploy them only if the United States did. “We will make such missiles, of course, but we will not deploy them in regions where no ground-based missile systems of this class manufactured by the United States have emerged," RFE/RL quoted Putin as saying on Sept. 5.
  • Russia’s military is incorporating mercenaries hired by a wealthy ally of President Vladimir Putin into its planned offensive to help Syria’s army retake the last major stronghold held by jihadist rebels, according to people “with direct knowledge of the matter” cited by Bloomberg. Hundreds of freelance fighters “who answer to” Yevgeny Prigozhin are amassing near the northwestern Syrian city of Idlib for a full-scale assault expected to start within weeks, the people told Bloomberg. At least three Russian soldiers have been reported killed in a firefight in Syria’s de-escalation zone this week.
  • India and Russia signed energy and defense deals on Sept. 4 as part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia. President Vladimir Putin said at a signing ceremony in Vladivostok that the two countries were preparing a 10-year military-technical cooperation program, as companies from both countries signed agreements on gas supplies and agricultural products, the Financial Times reports. Russian officials said this week that India has ordered a “breakthrough” $14.5 billion of Russian-made weapons since last year despite sanctions pressure from the United States, according to The Moscow Times. In addition to buying arms, “India’s energy companies are invited to participate in other promising projects, such as Far Eastern LNG and Arctic LNG 2,” the Financial Times quoted Putin as saying. Modi said on Sept. 5 that India would offer Russia a $1 billion credit line to help develop the Russian Far East, Reuters reports.
  • A court in Kyiv has released Volodymyr Tsemakh, a "person of interest" to Dutch prosecutors investigating the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17), RFE/RL reports. The ruling comes amid talks between Moscow and Kyiv on a prisoner swap that may include Tsemakh. On Sept. 5, Putin said an agreement on the prisoner exchange “is near.”
  • North Korea tried to bypass international sanctions to illegally import more than 100,000 bottles of Russian and Belarusian vodka into the country, according to a U.N. report cited by the Crime Russia news site.  

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • Journalists in northern Russia say they measured high levels of radiation near two abandoned barges, which were reportedly brought ashore after last month’s mysterious explosion at an Arkhangelsk region military testing range. One of the barges carries a special container for transporting radioactive waste. (RFE/RL, 09.03.19, Bellona, 09.04.19)
  • IAEA’s board of governors was to convene on Sept. 2 to discuss nuclear safety and security, verification and monitoring in Iran and the application of safeguards in North Korea and the Middle East. (Xinhua/UNI, 09.06.19)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • North Korea tried to bypass international sanctions to illegally import more than 100,000 bottles of Russian and Belarusian vodka into the country, according to a report presented by the U.N. Security Council Sanctions Committee. (Crime Russia, 09.06.19)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • The foreign ministers of Russia and Iran have met in Moscow in a show of solidarity against what Moscow termed "unacceptable" American provocation over the Iran nuclear deal, which remains at risk of collapse. (Newsweek, 09.02.19)
  • Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak says Moscow is weighing efforts to boost support for embattled Iran's oil industry, which is currently the target of crippling U.S. sanctions aimed at forcing Tehran to negotiate new curbs on its nuclear and missile programs. (RFE/RL, 09.05.19)
  • Brian Hook, the U.S. State Department's special representative for Iran, accused Russia of working to block U.N. inspectors from "getting to the bottom" of whether Iran is secretly hiding undeclared nuclear material. (Sinclair Broadcasting Group, 09.05.19)
  • Iran will abandon restrictions on nuclear research and development, including on the advancement of centrifuges used to enrich uranium, as the next step toward reducing its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal, President Hassan Rouhani said Sept. 4. (The Washington Post, 09.04.19)
  • In late June, American forces were within hours of striking Iran before U.S. President Donald Trump ordered them to stand down, much to the disappointment of his more hawkish allies. (New York Times, 09.04.19)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia will produce missiles banned until last month when a treaty forbidding them ended, but would deploy them only if the U.S. did. “We will make such missiles, of course, but we will not deploy them in the regions where no ground-based missile systems of this class manufactured by the U.S. have emerged," Putin said. (RFE/RL, 09.05.19)
  • U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, in his first major speech, on Sept. 6 called for a greater European focus on tackling what he called growing security and economic threats from China and Russia. (Reuters, 09.06.19)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • No significant developments.

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said he’d offered to sell U.S. President Donald Trump Russia’s latest weapons, including hypersonic missile systems, as part of efforts to revive strategic arms talks with the U.S. The U.S. hasn’t responded to his offer and “remains silent” on Russian proposals to reduce the arms race, Putin said. (Bloomberg, 09.05.19)

Counter-terrorism:

  • No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

  • Russia’s military is incorporating mercenaries hired by a wealthy ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin into its planned offensive to help Syria’s army retake the last major stronghold held by jihadist rebels. Hundreds of freelance fighters who answer to Yevgeny Prigozhin are amassing near the city of Idlib for a full-scale assault that’s expected to start within weeks. (Bloomberg, 09.06.19)
  • At least three Russian soldiers have been killed in a firefight in Syria’s de-escalation zone this week. Three Russian troops were allegedly killed and two were wounded in a landmine explosion late Sept. 4 in Idlib, according to Vedomosti’s military-diplomatic source. (The Moscow Times, 09.05.19)
  • The Russian Defense Ministry is pushing ahead with efforts to improve infrastructure at the Khmeimim and Tartus supply bases, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. (TASS, 09.02.19)
  • U.S. forces attacked jihadist leaders in northwestern Syria on Aug. 31, the Pentagon said, in what a battlefield monitor called a missile strike that left at least 40 dead. The U.S. strike on the Idlib region has concerned Moscow, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (AFP, 08.30.19, Interfax, 09.03.19)
  • Syrian state-owned media reported in March 2018 that the country’s People’s Assembly was set to ratify a contract for Russian oligarch Gennady Timchenko’s company, Stroytransgaz Logistic, to operate the phosphate mine near the Syrian city of Palmyra. (Financial Times, 09.01.19)

Cyber security:

  • No significant developments.

Elections interference:

  • U.S. Vice President Mike Pence spoke out against Russia on Sept. 2 during his European trip, criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin's government for election interference and pledging support for Poland as it seeks to bolster its military amid Russian aggression in the region. "With its efforts to meddle in elections across Europe and around the world, now is the time for us to remain vigilant about the intentions and actions being taken by Russia," Pence said. (The Washington Post, 09.02.19)
  • Russia's Twitter campaign to influence the 2016 presidential election in Maryland began in June 2015, when the St. Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency opened an account it called @BaltimoreOnline and began tweeting about local news events. (The Washington Post, 09.01.19)
  • Andrew Miller, one of Roger Stone’s closest aides, who spent a year fighting a subpoena from special counsel Robert Mueller, will testify as a government witness at his former boss’ November trial for lying to Congress about his dealings with WikiLeaks during the 2016 election. (Politico, 09.04.19)

Energy exports:

  • The consortium building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany has said it expects the project to be completed on schedule in early 2020, or even earlier, but admits Denmark’s ongoing delay in approving the pipeline crossing its territorial waters could be problematic. (Emerging Europe, 09.03.19)
  • The U.S., Poland and Ukraine agreed to take steps to improve energy security in the region. U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said that by supporting Poland's aspirations to become a natural-gas hub, "the same LNG can help another ally and that's Ukraine." (RFE/RL, 09.01.19)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • The U.S. Education Department has begun cracking down on universities that fail to disclose donations and contracts from foreign governments. In letters sent to universities in July, department officials wrote they were seeking records dating as far back as nine years, outlining agreements, communication and financial transactions with entities and governments in countries such as China, Qatar, Russia and Saudi Arabia. (New York Times, 08.31.19)
  • Alexander Korshunov, an employee of the Russian state-owned United Engine Corp, a Rostec subsidiary, has been arrested in Italy at the request of the U.S. on charges of attempting to steal trade secrets from a unit of General Electric based in Ohio. Asked about the arrest, Putin slammed the practice of arresting Russians abroad at the U.S.’s request as a bad one and linked it to rivalry. (RFE/RL, 09.05.19, TASS, 09.05.19)
  • Lawyers for Paul Whelan, a U.S. citizen charged in Russia with espionage, have appealed a court's decision to prolong his pretrial detention until Oct. 29. (RFE/RL, 09.02.19)
  • New York-based film student Audrey Elizabeth Lorber has been charged with drug possession in St. Petersburg for allegedly bringing medical marijuana into the country. (The Moscow Times, 09.03.19)
  • U.S. Rep. Eliot Engel, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul have condemned Russia's "failure to hold free" local elections this weekend in Moscow and St. Petersburg and "its crackdown on protesters," according to a joint statement on Sept. 5. (RFE/RL, 09.06.19)
  • Russian state watchdog Roskomnadzor said on Sept. 6 it asked Facebook and Google to ban the publication of political advertising during elections on Sunday and on the preceding day, in line with Russian law. (Reuters, 09.06.19)
  • Overstock.com CEO Patrick Byrne claims to have had low-level security clearance, so when Maria Butina contacted him at an event in 2015, Byrne reported the unusual encounter to the FBI. He claims that the FBI signed off on his interacting with Butina, skeptical that she was a Russian agent, and he began a relationship with her. (The Washington Post, 09.05.19)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Eighteen Russian regions are scheduled to hold gubernatorial elections on Sept. 8. In addition, 13 regions will hold elections to local parliaments. Voters in Moscow will go to the polls Sept. 8 to elect a new city council, choosing from among more than 200 hopefuls in 45 districts—but with most of the main opposition candidates excluded from the ballot. The United Democrats, as the opposition alliance is known, have registered more than 400 candidates in districts in St. Petersburg, and supports candidates in six other cities across the country. (The Washington Post, 09.05.19, Wall Street Journal, 09.06.19)
  • Russian authorities have begun handing jail sentences to activists on protest-related charges after they took to the streets in support of fair elections this summer. Ivan Podkopayev, 25, was sentenced to three years in jail after a court convicted him of pepper-spraying police. Danila Beglets, 27, was sentenced to two years after a court convicted him of grabbing a police officer by the wrist. Kirill Zhukov, 28, was sentenced to three years for lifting a police helmet visor. Zhukov also faces new charges of using the internet to call for extremist activity, which carry a prison sentence of up to five years. A Moscow court has sentenced activist Yevgeny Kovalenko to 42 months in prison for assaulting a police officer during an opposition rally in July. (RFE/RL, 09.04.19, The Moscow Times, 09.04.19)
  • A Sept. 3 survey by the Levada Center showed that 45 percent of respondents felt independent candidates were denied access to being put on the ballot because Moscow authorities "are in competition" with them. The same number also felt law enforcement acted unreasonably when detaining protesters at the rallies. (RFE/RL, 09.04.19)
  • Almost one-third of Russian respondents (32 percent) dismissed the Western interference claims as attempts to smear election protests in Moscow this summer, Levada’s survey published Sept. 3 said. Another 26 percent said that even if meddling did take place, it likely had no effect on the protest movement. Only 26 percent of Russians surveyed blamed the West for meddling in the Moscow elections. (The Moscow Times, 09.03.19)
  • The Kremlin is in talks to set up a system to monitor what Russian internet users watch online, Vedomosti reported Sept. 5. (The Moscow Times, 09.05.19)
  • The Kremlin has agreed to probe senior member of Moscow’s city legislature Andrei Metelsky over two investigations into his dealings by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s anti-corruption team, Vedomosti reported. (The Moscow Times, 09.05.19)
  • The Bank of Russia cut its key interest rate Sept. 6 for the third time this year amid a sluggish economy at home and easier monetary policy abroad. The bank lowered its rate to 7 percent from 7.25 percent. (Wall Street Journal, 09.06.19)
  • Russia’s services PMI bounced back in August from just treading water in July and lifted the composite index result, IHS Markit said in its latest data release on Sept. 4. The services PMI came in at 52.1 in August, up from 50.4 a month earlier, which was only just above the 50 no-change mark. (bne IntelliNews, 09.04.19)
  • Russia’s Economy Ministry expects inflation in the country to slow down to 4.1 percent year-on-year this month from 4.3 percent in August. (Reuters, 09.06.19)
  • Years of hawkish budgets and a decision to balance state spending means Russia’s reserves have risen by 45 percent since 2015 to $518 billion midway through this year. But implementation of Vladimir Putin’s National Projects is already lagging behind schedule. In the first half of this year, only 32 percent of the promised funds for the initiatives was spent, according to Russia’s Accounts Chamber, a government spending watchdog. (Financial Times, 09.02.19)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia's Knyaz Vladimir (K-549) submarine is expected to be delivered to the Northern Fleet this year, the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper has reported. (The Barents Observer, 09.06.19)
  • Over 27,000 generals, admirals and officers, including over 4,000 representatives of 55 foreign states, have been trained at Russia’s General Staff academy. (Interfax, 09.03.19)
  • A series of corruption scandals, cost overruns and mishaps at Russia’s new Vostochny Cosmodrome have brought long-simmering questions about the leadership of the country’s space agency into public view. “The situation is unacceptable for everyone, including the construction of the first stage and the second stage” of the space center, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov said, adding that the Defense Ministry may take over part of the work. (Bloomberg, 09.02.19)
  • Two pilots’ bodies have been found a day after their Su-25 fighter jet crashed during a training flight in southern Russia. (The Moscow Times, 09.04.19)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Russian diplomats in Berlin met on Sept. 2 with the suspected killer of ex-Chechen field commander and Georgian nation Zelimkhan Khangoshvili. The suspect used the alias Vadim Andreevich Sokolov and had a passport whose number is linked to Russian security services, notably GRU. The German-Caucasian Society says it warned German authorities years ago about Russian threats against Khangoshvili. (RFE/RL, 09.03.19, AP, 09.06.19)
  • Russian blogger Vladislav Sinitsa has been sentenced to five years in prison for threatening the children of Russian National Guard officers on Twitter. (RFE/RL, 09.03.19)
  • Russia's Interior Ministry says an intruder broke into the home of Ella Pamfilova, the head of the country's Central Election Commission, and assaulted her two days before controversial regional and local elections. (RFE/RL, 09.06.19)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • India and Russia signed a number of energy and defense deals on Sept. 4 as part of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin told his guest that the two countries were preparing a 10-year military-technical cooperation program, as companies from both countries signed agreements on gas supplies and agricultural products. India has ordered a “breakthrough” $14.5 billion of Russian-made weapons since last year despite sanctions pressure from the U.S., Russia’s Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation has said. In addition, “India’s energy companies are invited to participate in other promising projects, such as Far Eastern LNG and Arctic LNG 2,” Putin said, referring to LNG projects in development. Modi said India would offer Russia a $1 billion credit line to help develop the Russian Far East.  (Financial Times, 09.04.19, Reuters, 09.05.19, The Moscow Times, 09.05.19)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe on Sept. 5 that Tokyo's military ties with the U.S. and many other issues made it hard for Japan and Russia to sign a World War II peace treaty. (Reuters, 09.05.19)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Mongolian counterpart, Khaltmaagiin Battulga, have signed a permanent treaty on friendship and comprehensive strategic partnership during Putin’s visit to Mongolia. (RFE/RL, 09.03.19)
  • EU ambassadors on Sept. 4 agreed to prolong by six months the sanctions against 170 Russian officials and Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists as well as 44 entities. People on the sanctions list include Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, and Gen. Valery Gerasimov. (RFE/RL, 09.04.19)
  • The head of a Russian parliamentary commission pursuing Moscow's claim that Germany's public broadcaster promoted unrest in Russia has threatened punishment against Deutsche Welle journalists working in the country. Lawmaker Vasily Piskarev, who chairs a State Duma commission set up to probe foreign meddling in domestic affairs, said a Deutsche Welle representative must appear before a parliamentary hearing or draw its ire. (RFE/RL, 09.04.19)

China:

  • The 250-meter long Korolev Prospect tanker set out from Murmansk and is expected to arrive in a Chinese port by Sept. 14. It is the first time that an LNG-powered tanker will transit across the Northern Sea Route. (The Barents Observer, 09.04.19)
  • Protesters in Kazakhstan have gathered for a third day to pressure President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev to cancel a planned trip to neighboring China over perceived corruption and mounting Chinese influence through financial assistance to the former Soviet republic. (RFE/RL, 09.04.19)

Ukraine:

  • A court in Kyiv has released Volodymyr Tsemakh, a "person of interest" to investigators in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 five years ago. The ruling comes amid talks between Moscow and Kyiv on a prisoner swap that unconfirmed reports have said includes Tsemakh. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sept. 5 said an agreement on a prisoner exchange “is near.” Dutch prosecutors investigating the downing of the plane over eastern Ukraine want to speak Tsemakh. (RFE/RL, 09.05.19, RFE/RL, 09.05.19)
  • U.S. Vice President Mike Pence offered assurances Sept. 1 that Ukraine has U.S. support. Speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after an event in Warsaw, Pence said the U.S. has "stood strongly for the territorial integrity of Ukraine" since 2014 and "will continue to stand with the people of the Ukraine on your security, on territorial integrity, including Ukraine's rightful claim to Crimea." U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said that Washington will most likely continue to toughen sanctions on Moscow. (The Moscow Times, 09.02.19, AP, 09.03.19)
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met with U.S. Sens. Chris Murphy and Ron Johnson in Kyiv on Sept. 5, during which both lawmakers expressed support for Ukraine's continued progress. (RFE/RL, 09.06.19)
  • The U.S. should not interfere in Ukraine’s internal and external affairs and demand that Kyiv choose between the U.S. and China, Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Du Wei has said, commenting on statements made by U.S. national security adviser John Bolton during his visit to Kyiv. (Interfax, 09.03.19)
  • Russia was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's main topic of discussion during his first official visit to Poland. Zelenskiy spoke with Polish President Andrzej Duda about ending Kyiv's war with Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, regaining control of Crimea and the continuation of EU sanctions against Moscow. Duda said Poland saw a need to maintain Western sanctions against Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea. (The Moscow Times, 09.02.19, RFE/RL, 09.01.19)
  • Ukraine's newly appointed foreign minister, Vadym Prystaiko, said he is going to secure "a new page in the peace process" over the Donbass crisis within the next six months. (bne IntelliNews, 09.02.19)
  • Ukraine's new government targets 5 percent GDP growth next year and at least 7 percent each year from 2021 to 2024. (Ukraine Business News, 09.03.19)
  • Ukraine’s parliament has approved a much-anticipated bill to scrap immunity from prosecution for lawmakers. The move was one of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s main campaign promises. (AP, 09.03.19)
  • Addressing Ukraine’s new cabinet, the leaders of parliament and the nation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a televised meeting: “We’re here to set strategic tasks, with deadlines and with people who will be responsible.”  The deadlines include a new law for a private farmland market to be drafted by Oct. 1, and vetting and hiring 2,000 new judges by Jan. 1. (Ukraine Business News, 09.03.19)
  • It took Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy three working days to do what former president Petro Poroshenko failed to do over several years: Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Court started work on Sept. 5, as planned. (bne IntelliNews, 09.06.19)
  • Ukraine’s new government launched on the first day of work a pledge to create a market for land by next summer and end the ongoing moratorium on sales—a key demand from the International Monetary Fund. (bne IntelliNews, 09.03.19)
  • Ukraine's Energoatom and America’s Westinghouse have signed a preliminary agreement for Westinghouse to manufacture fuel for VVER-440 reactors in Ukraine. Ukraine has two VVER-440s—units 1 and 2 of the Rovno nuclear power plant. (World Nuclear News, 09.05.19)
  • The Ukrainian Security Service is investigating defense firm Motor Sich for allegedly preparing a “subversive act” by supplying military hardware to Russia. (RFE/RL, 09.05.19)
  • Ukraine's central-bank chairman, Yakiv Smoliy, has asked police to investigate "without bias" recent incidents involving his predecessor Valeria Gontareva, who was the victim of an alleged hit-and-run attack in London and whose daughter-in-law had her car set on fire overnight in Kyiv on Sept. 5. (RFE/RL, 09.06.19)
  • Belarus has had to close its border with Ukraine in order to prevent arms from pouring in, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said at an international high-level conference on counterterrorism in Minsk on Sept. 3. (Interfax, 09.03.19)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Georgia's ruling party, Georgian Dream, has nominated controversial Interior Minister Giorgi Gakharia as its candidate for prime minister. Opposition deputy Salome Samadashvili described Gakharia as "Moscow's man in Georgia" and said that his nomination was "dragging Georgia deeper into a political crisis." (RFE/RL, 09.03.19)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump has announced his intention to nominate career diplomat Kelly Degnan as the new U.S. ambassador to Georgia, a post that has been vacant for nearly a year and a half. (RFE/RL, 09.04.19)
  • Armenia's Constitutional Court has ruled that the arrest of former President Robert Kocharian was "unconstitutional." (RFE/RL, 09.04.19)
  • Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev, in his first state-of-the-nation address following his election in June, has promised to support political competition and pluralism in the tightly controlled Central Asian nation. (RFE/RL, 09.02.19)