Russia in Review, Aug 6-13, 2021
This Week’s Highlights
- Russian forces participated in a regular Chinese military exercise, Sibu/Interaction 2021, for the first time this week, operating Chinese hardware, including the ZTL-11 infantry support vehicle and the ZBL-08 armored personnel carrier. Analysts believe the two militaries could grant access to each other’s electronic communications systems and build joint command structures, Financial Times and Russia Matters reported. “We have reached a high level of interaction of our armed forces on land, in the air and at sea,” Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in reference to the August 9-13 wargames during his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe, which was organized part of his working visit to China, TASS reported.
- U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, have spoken by telephone about ongoing "strategic stability" talks. The Pentagon said Austin and Shoigu discussed "transparency and risk-reduction efforts,” according to RFE/RL.
- Russia's main trading partners among non-CIS countries in the first half of 2021 were China, trade with which rose 27.7% year-on-year to $61.9 billion; Germany, up 33.6% to $25.8 billion; the Netherlands, up 36.0% to $20.5 billion and the United States, up 30.1% to $16.1 billion, Interfax reported.
- In the first half of 2021, Gazprom increased gas supplies to Western Europe by 28.52% compared to the same period last year to 77.235 billion cubic meters, the company said. In January - June 2021, Gazprom increased gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline 2.94-fold compared to the same period in 2020 to 4.62 billion cubic meters, TASS reported.
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold talks in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 20. Merkel would also visit Kyiv on August 22, RFERL reported.
- Russia’s first regiment of strategic missile systems with the Avangard boost-glide vehicle will go on combat duty by the end of this year, according to 13th Missile Division Commander Andrei Cherevko told TASS. In addition, flight trials of the Sarmat silo-based liquid-fueled ICBM will start this year and finish in 2022, Shoigu said. Shoigu was quoted by Krasnaya Zvezda as saying the first Sarmats will be deployed “not very far” from the Krasnoyarsky Machine-Building plant where they are manufactured, according to TASS.
- Asked who will become president of Belarus after him, Alexander Lukashenko said: “After me people will come, even very soon,” The Tribune reported. Lukashenko also said “Russia will never move [serious missile systems] here [to Belarus], especially nuclear warheads as they will be targeted directly from the territories of Poland and Lithuania,” according to TASS.
- Russia on August 13 recorded its highest daily coronavirus death toll for a second day running. A government tally showed 815 Covid-19 fatalities over the past 24 hours and 22,277 new cases. Only 20% of Russians have been fully vaccinated. Some 55% of Russians are not ready to get vaccinated and their share has not changed over the past month, according to Levada, as reported by AFP and The Moscow Times.
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda
Nuclear security and safety:
- Over 2,000 personnel of the Central Military District’s Nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) protection troops are involved in an exercise that kicked off at training grounds in the Altai, Sverdlovsk and Samara Regions. The exercise will run through August 28. In the course of the drills, the NBC protection troops of the Central Military District will accomplish combat training assignments to practice NBC reconnaissance, aerosol counter-measures and decontamination. (TASS, 08.10.21)
- Decommissioning of the RBMK reactor at Leningrad 1 has reached a milestone with the removal of all fuel from the reactor core. Rosenergoatom plans to use some of the fuel in the two RBMK reactors which remain in operation at the Leningrad site. (World Nuclear News, 08.11.21)
- On August 11, 2021, representatives of Russia’s Federal Service for Environmental, Technological and Nuclear Supervision and the Egyptian Nuclear and Radiological Safety Regulatory Authority held a coordination meeting via videoconference. During the event, the participants exchanged information on the progress of construction of nuclear facilities in Russia and the status of the implementation of the El-Dabaa NPP project in Egypt. (Rostechnadzor, 08.12.21)
North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:
- No significant developments.
Iran and its nuclear program:
- A senior European Union official says Iran is ready to resume suspended nuclear talks as soon early September. The official said the EU's negotiator on the matter, Enrique Mora, attended the swearing-in of new Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran last week, speaking there with the Iranian official designated to lead the talks, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. (RFE/RL, 08.07.21)
- Iran’s new president nominated hardline career diplomat Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to the crucial post of foreign minister as Tehran and Washington seek to resuscitate JCPOA. Amir-Abdollahian, 56, was deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs under former populist hardline President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. (RFE/RL, 08.11.21)
- Iran is in talks with Russia on its debt in the Bushehr NPP project, Iranian Ambassador in Moscow Kazem Jalali said. Jalali said in June 2021 that the Iranian debt to Russia in the Bushehr NPP project neared $500 million. (Interfax, 08.10.21)
- The Russian Caspian Flotilla's Makhachkala and Astrakhan small artillery ships have left their base in Dagestan and are heading to Iran's Bandar Anzali Port to take part in the Sea Cup competition portion of the International Army Games. The team of the Penza branch of the Khrulyov Military Logistics Academy, which will represent Russia at the international stage of the Gunsmith Master contest, has arrived at the venue of the competition as part of the Army 2021 International Games in the Iranian city of Shahin Shahr. (Interfax, 08.10.21, Interfax, 08.13.21)
- Iranian officials have expressed outrage over the Russian and British ambassadors' recreation of an iconic World War II photo taken during the Soviet-British occupation of the Islamic republic in 1943. Russia’s Embassy in Tehran posted a photo August 11 at the site of the Tehran conference where Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill met to discuss military strategies against Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.12.21)
Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:
- The U.S. is now navigating through uncharted waters with the possibility of strategic deterrence failing under rapidly growing threats from China and Russia, Navy Adm. Charles A. Richard, the commander of U.S. Strategic Command said. Russia continues to use a wide range of capabilities that are below the threshold of conflict, such as cyber and state-sponsored coercion of nations, seeking to solidify great power status, he said. (U.S. Department of Defense, 08.12.21)
- “By mid-May 2021, the People’s Liberation Army likely began construction of a potential intercontinental ballistic missile silo site in Hanggin Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia,” Roderick Lee, research director at the China Aerospace Studies Institute, wrote. Lee said the combination of the number of ICBM launchers and Beijing’s submarine and bomber capabilities meant “China’s future inventory of strategic nuclear delivery systems seems on track to approaching parity with those of the United States and Russia.” (Financial Times, 08.13.21)
- President Biden will convene dozens of elected world leaders Dec. 9 and 10 for a virtual summit that celebrates democracy and explores ways that like-minded nations can link arms against authoritarianism, fulfilling a campaign promise clouded by the coronavirus pandemic and the legacy of former president Donald Trump. (The Washington Post, 08.11.21)
- The “weaponization” of migration by Belarus on its border with Lithuania and an imminent military exercise involving Russian and Belarusian troops risks an “incident” with NATO troops in the Baltic states or Poland, said Latvia’s foreign minister. Edgars Rinkevics told the Financial Times there was an increased chance of “misunderstandings, some actions that are not approved by superiors” when Russia’s Zapad military exercise takes place next month. (Financial Times, 08.08.21)
- German authorities say they have detained a British citizen suspected of spying for Russia while working at Britain’s embassy in Berlin. The man, identified as David S., was arrested on August 10 in the city of Potsdam, near Berlin, Germany's Federal Prosecutor’s Office said in a statement. It said the suspect was hired as a local staff member at the embassy. (RFE/RL, 08.11.21)
China-Russia: Allied or aligned?
- The August 9-13 Sibu/Interaction 2021 joint Russia-China strategic drills, which involved over 10,000 troops, came to an end at the Qingtongxia training ground in northern China. The five-day-long maneuvers began on 9 August at the Qingtongxia combat training base in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in north-central China. The drills involved 200 pieces of the armor, 90 artillery guns, over 100 fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft and units of the Chinese Army and Air Force. (TASS, 08.13.21, Jane’s, 08.11.21)
- Russia was represented in the drills by motor rifle units of a the Eastern Military District, Su-30SM aircraft of the District’s Air Force and Air Defense Army and officers of military command centers. (TASS, 08.13.211)
- Russian forces participated in a regular Chinese military exercise for the first time this week, stoking concerns among western analysts that the two US adversaries are developing joint operational capabilities. Analysts believe the two militaries could grant access to each other’s electronic communications systems and build joint command structures. Also for the first time the Russian military were to have operated Chinese hardware during the wargame, including ZTL-11 infantry support vehicle and the ZBL-08 armored personnel carrier (Financial Times, 08.09.21, Russia Matters, 08.06.21)
- "The practice of holding joint operational and combat training measures has become regular for Russia and China. We have reached a high level of interaction of our armed forces on land, in the air and at sea. Building it up is an important direction of further activity Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe, which he held as part of his working visit to China. (TASS, 08.13.21)
- Russia’s Eastern Military District and pilots of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force have practiced multiple aerial strikes during the Russian-Chinese exercise Sibu/Interaction 2021. (TASS, 08.13.21)
- Shoigu stressed in late July that Russia had invited all the SCO member states to take part in the Zapad-2021 drills. However, the PLA is expected to skip the big [Russian-Belarussian Zapad-2021] exercise coming up in western Russia this year. Analysts believe Beijing wants to avoid fueling NATO countries’ concerns over Chinese military power. (Financial Times, 08.09.21, TASS, 07.28.21)
Missile defense:
- The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is examining the possibility of building a layered ballistic missile defense architecture for the homeland that would bolster the current ground-based system in Alaska, all while a next-generation capability is developed and fielded. (Defense News, 08.10.21)
Nuclear arms control:
- U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, have spoken by telephone about ongoing "strategic stability" talks launched last month after a recent presidential summit. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on August 11 Austin and Shoigu discussed "transparency and risk-reduction efforts following the July 28 resumption of the U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue. “The Russian Defense Ministry said the two talked about "the results of bilateral consultations on strategic stability, as well as issues of global and regional security." (RFE/RL, 08.11.21)
Counter-terrorism:
- No significant developments.
Conflict in Syria:
- Russia’s Pulsar Scientific and Production Enterprise, Charter Green Light Moscow and Asia-Invest have been sanctioned by the US administration as Washington deems that they violate the US national legislation that bans proliferation of WMDs in relation to Iraq, North Korea and Syria, the US State Department published the notice on August 9 in the Federal Register. The document shows that the decision was made on July 29. (TASS, 08.09.21)
- Turkish and Russian military officials have agreed to cooperate to find a solution for water and electricity cuts in Al-Hasakah city of Syria, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported on Aug. 8. The Russian military delegation visited the Allouk Water Station and the Mabrouka Power Plant with the Turkish military delegation in the area of Operation Peace Spring and made an examination. (Hurriyet Daily News, 08.09.21)
- Issues of humanitarian assistance were the focus of telephone talks between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Martin Griffiths, the Russian foreign ministry said on August 6. (TASS, 08.06.21)
Cyber security:
- An in-depth analysis of the employed malware families suggests that Chinese hacker groups TA428 and TaskMasters were behind a series of attacks that targeted Russian government agencies in 2020, Group-IB says. Both groups are linked to the Chinese government. If the Chinese pro-government hackers are really behind all the attacks, then this is a direct violation of 2015 agreement between Russia and the PRC on cooperation in the field of international information security, according to Kommersant. (Security Week, 08.05.21, C News, 08.05.21)
- Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas has claimed that hackers allegedly connected with Russia might have hacked into the database of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry. (TASS, 08.12.21)
Elections interference:
- The Biden administration is receiving regular intelligence reports indicating Russian efforts to interfere in US elections are ongoing. One of the people familiar with the matter confirmed that there have been recent intelligence reports about what the Russians are up to, particularly their efforts to sow disinformation on social media and weaponize US media outlets for propaganda purposes. (CNN, 08.13.21)
- John Durham, the federal prosecutor tapped to investigate the origins of the Russia investigation, has been presenting evidence before a grand jury as part of his probe, a person familiar with the matter said Friday. (AP, 08.13.21)
Energy exports from CIS:
- In the first half of 2021, Gazprom increased gas supplies to Western Europe by 28.52% compared to the same period last year, reaching a total of 77.235 billion cubic meters. The main consumers of Russian gas in Western Europe are Germany (growth in supplies by 43.42% to 28.872 billion cubic meters), Austria (down 18.2% to 5.397 billion cubic meters), Italy (an increase of 14.09% to 11.393 billion cubic meters) and France (an increase of 15% to 6.582 billion cubic meters). (TASS, 08.13.21
- In January to June 2021, Gazprom increased gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline 2.94-fold compared to the same period in 2020, to 4.62 billion cubic meters. (TASS, 08.13.21)
- A powerful explosion followed by a day-long fire at a Gazprom plant in Western Siberia cut Russian gas deliveries to Germany in half. The damaged plant is the largest gas processing enterprise in this northern region, source of 80% of Russia’s gas.. (Ukraine Business News, 08.09.21, RFE/RL, 08.06.21)
- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has appointed former diplomat Amos Hochstein as senior adviser on energy security with a focus on measures to “reduce the risks” posed by the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline and support energy security in Eastern Europe. (RFE/RL, 08.10.21)
- Construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be completed in a matter of weeks, Russian ambassador to Germany Sergei Nechaev said. (TASS, 08.09.21)
- The International Energy Agency has “sharply” lowered its oil demand forecasts for the rest of the year. In its monthly market report, the Paris-based organization said growth would be 500,000 barrels per day lower in the second half of 2021 compared with its last estimate because of the “worsening progression of the pandemic”. Global oil demand is now seen by the IEA as rising 5.3m b/d on average to 96.2m b/d in 2021, and by a further 3.2m b/d in 2022. Before the pandemic began it was almost 100m b/d. (Financial Times, 08.12.21)
U.S.-Russian economic ties:
- No significant developments.
U.S.-Russian relations in general:
- A Moscow court has given U.S. investor Michael Calvey a 5 1/2-year suspended sentence, a day after finding him and six co-defendants guilty of embezzlement in a high-profile case followed closely by the international business community. Even though he will not spend time in prison, Calvey said after the verdict on August 6 that the ruling was "unfortunate and deeply unfair." (RFE/RL, 08.06.21)
- Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, convicted last year in Russia on espionage charges he denies, has been released from solitary confinement in a remote prison, his lawyer says. Whelan has spent more than two weeks in what Russia's penitentiary system calls a "punitive isolation cell" for an unknown violation of the penitentiary's regulations. (RFE/RL, 08.09.21)
- Facebook announced on August 10 that it had shut down a network of dozens of Facebook and Instagram accounts from Russia with connections to a marketing group that was trying to enlist social-media "influencers" to push false claims about COVID-19 vaccines. (RFE/RL, 08.10.21)
II. Russia’s domestic policies
Domestic politics, economy and energy:
- Russia on August 13 recorded its highest daily coronavirus death toll for a second day running, even as the country's outbreak epicenter Moscow lifted some restrictions. A government tally showed 815 Covid-19 fatalities over the past 24 hours and 22,277 new cases. Russia is administering around 235,000 first doses a day of its anti-coronavirus vaccines — significantly down from 600,000 at the beginning of July. Only 20% of Russians have been fully vaccinated with one of the four homemade coronavirus vaccines on offer, with 27% of the population having had at least a first dose. Some 55% of Russians are not ready to get vaccinated and their share has not changed over the past month, according to Levada.(AFP, 08.13.21, The Moscow Times, 08.13.21, Russia Matters, 08.09.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
- More than 185,000 people died from all causes in June 2021 in Russia — 26% more than during the same month in 2019. It was the sharpest increase in monthly deaths across the country since January. (The Moscow Times, 08.06.21)
- A UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report said that heatwaves are likely to intensify in Russia, Moscow’s average temperatures have risen by 1 C in just 50 years, the length of Russia’s wildfire seasons will continue to increase and around 32% of the country’s permafrost coverage will melt by 2100. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.09.21)
- President Vladimir Putin has ordered reinforcements to battle the out-of-control currently wildfires raging across Russia’s largest and coldest region. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.10.21)
- Russian investigators on August 11 charged jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny with a new crime that could prolong his time behind bars. The Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes in Russia, said that as part of its investigating of the Kremlin critic's organizations, it had charged him with "creating a non-profit organization that infringes on the rights of citizens." (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.11.21)
- Russian media have reported that Lyubov Sobol, a key ally of Navalny, has fled Russia, reports that the lawyer and activist has not confirmed herself. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.09.21)
- Jailed former Russian journalist Ivan Safronov, who is charged with high treason, is facing even tougher conditions in detention after his article criticizing the authorities for their treatment of suspects and methods used in investigating espionage amid a wave of cases aimed at muzzling dissent was published. (RFE/RL, 08.09.21)
- Russian activist Igor Shishkin has fled Russia after serving 3 1/2 years in prison in the high-profile Set case that rights defenders and opposition activists have called "fabricated. (RFE/RL, 08.09.21)
- Russian opposition politician Lev Shlosberg of the Yabloko party says he has been barred from seeking election to the parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, next month.
- A Russian court has sentenced two activists linked to the banned Open Russia rights group to lengthy prison sentences for drug charges they say are politically motivated. The Pskov district court on August 12 sentenced Lia Milushkina to 10 1/2 years in prison and her husband, Artyom Milushkin, to 11 years after finding them guilty of drug trafficking. (RFE/RL, 08.12.21)
- Jehovah’s Witness Vasily Meleshko was sentenced to prison in southern Russia this week for taking part in Bible discussions, the religious organization said August 13. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.13.21)
- Sergei Kovalyov, a leading Russian dissident and human rights activist who fought for the victims of oppression in Soviet times and opposed Moscow's war against Chechen separatists in the 1990s, died August 9 in Moscow. He was 91. (The Washington Post, 08.09.21)
- The Moscow City Court cancelled Shlosberg's registration after a member of the Green party filed a lawsuit against him, he wrote on Telegram on August 9. (RFE/RL, 08.09.21)
- Russian authorities have stifled people's right to peaceful protests to such an extent that is has become almost impossible for Russians to protest in any meaningful way, Amnesty International has said in a report. The report documents a clampdown on peaceful protests that Amnesty says began with the 2004 Federal Law on Assemblies and has accelerated in recent years. (RFE/RL, 08.12.21)
Defense and aerospace:
- The first regiment of strategic missile systems with the Avangard boost-glide vehicle will go on combat duty by the end of this year, 13th Missile Division Commander Major General Andrei Cherevko said on August 10. (TASS, 08.10.21)
- The Project 885M (Yasen-M) new nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, which in May was accepted for service in the Russian Navy, is capable of carrying Tsirkon hypersonic missiles to strike ground and naval targets, Commander of the Northern Fleet’s 11th Submarine Division Rear Admiral Alexander Zarenkov said on August 10. (TASS, 08.10.21)
- Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said flight trials of the Sarmat silo-based liquid-fueled ICBM will start this year and finish in 2022. In his words, the Strategic Missile Forces should start receiving these missiles next year. The new missile weighs 208.1 tons, the payload is close to 10 tons and the fuel is 178 tons. The range of Sarmat is 18,000 kilometers. Shoigu was quoted by Krasnaya Zvezda as saying the first Sarmats will be deployed “not very far” from the Krasnoyarsky Machine-Building plant where they are manufactured. The share of the latest types of weapons, military and special equipment has reached 86%, Shoigu said. (TASS, 08.07.21, Russia Matters, 08.10.21)
- The Russian Armed Forces received some 200 main weapon systems in the first half of 2021, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on 10 August. Shoigu said this included MiG-35S multirole combat aircraft, Mi-8MTPR-1 and Ka-52 helicopters, 12 radars, a Bastion mobile coastal defense missile battery, and nine naval vessels, including the Project 885M nuclear-powered guided missile submarine Kazan and the Project 21631 corvette Grayvoron. Three nuclear-powered submarines, a diesel-electric submarine, and six surface vessels are to be handed over to the Russian Navy in 2021. (Jane’s, 08.11.21)
- The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is considering officially retiring the Topol Intercontinental-range Ballistic Missile in 2024. According to local media reports, the Armed Forces has decided to retire the RT-2PM Topol ICBMs, known to NATO as the SS-25 Sickle. (Defence Blog, 08.08.21)
- Russia’s LTS Checkmate would be the world's second single-engine fighter plane to incorporate the most sophisticated radar-evasion and command systems. The only other plane in this category, the F-35, manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corp., is the most advanced plane in the U.S. arsenal. (The Wall Street Journal, 08.09.21)
Emergencies, law-enforcement and justice:
- A second woman has died of injuries sustained in an August 12 explosion on a passenger bus in the Russian central city of Voronezh. Seventeen victims are being treated for their injures; at least four of them are in serious condition. Officials say they suspect the blast was caused by gas cylinders installed on the bus. (RFE/RL, 08.13.21)
- A helicopter carrying 16 tourists and crew on a sightseeing trip in Russia's far east crashed into a lake on August 12, leaving eight people including a child feared dead and two others in serious condition. The Mi-8 helicopter crash-landed into the icy waters of Kuril Lake in the mountainous Kamchatka peninsula in poor visibility and sank, local authorities said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.13.21)
- Nine coronavirus patients died August 9 in Russia's republic of North Ossetia after an oxygen pipe ruptured at a hospital in the capital Vladikavkaz, authorities said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.10.21)
- Russian prosecutors have opened a criminal probe into an oil spill off the country's Black Sea coast. Russian scientists with the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences said on August 11 after studying satellite images that it actually covered nearly 80 square kilometers. (The Moscow Times, 08.11.21)
- An official in the Republic of Chuvashia in Russia's Volga region, where expanding Chinese investment has sparked protests in the past over alleged corruption, has been convicted of forgery linked to a Chinese agricultural deal. Maksim Medvedev was found guilty of forging documents related to public discussions that never occurred to allocate the lands in 2019 to the Sichuan-Chuvashia Chinese-Russian agricultural joint venture. (RFE/RL, 08.10.21)
- Russian authorities have detained the head of an institute researching hypersonic flight on charges of high treason. Moscow’s Lefortovo district court said it would convene to determine Aleksandr Kuranov's terms of custody later on August 12. (RFE/RL, 08.12.21)
- Russia has added popular YouTuber and comic Yury Khovansky to its list of “terrorists and extremists” ahead of his criminal trial over a song that mocked the deadly 2002 Moscow theater hostage crisis. (The Moscow Times, 08.10.21)
- A court in Russia has sentenced Russian businessman Andrei Kakovkin to prison on embezzlement charges more than three years after he returned to his homeland from abroad as part of a campaign to repatriate foreign-based Russian businesspeople. Kakovkin was the first person who used business ombudsman Boris Titov's campaign to bring back foreign-based Russian businesspeople from abroad. (RFE/RL, 08.12.21)
III. Russia’s relations with other countries
Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:
- Russia's trade surplus widened by $15.8 billion or 28.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2021 to $71.7 billion, Federal Customs Service said on August 9. Exports grew 28.4% to $209.4 billion and imports also jumped 28.4%, to $137.6 billion. Foreign trade grew 28.4% year-on-year to $347 billion. Machinery and equipment accounted for 49.5% of imports. Russia's main trading partners among non-CIS countries were China, trade with which rose 27.7% year-on-year to $61.9 billion; Germany, up 33.6% to $25.8 billion; the Netherlands, up 36.0% to $20.5 billion; the United States, up 30.1% to $16.1 billion. (Interfax, 08.11.21)
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold talks in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 20, the German and Russian governments announced on August 13. Merkel’s office earlier announced she would visit the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on August 22. It will be Merkel’s first trip to the Russian capital since January 2020. (RFE/RL, 08.13.21)
- Germany’s Green Party says Germany must withdraw its support for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which leaves Germany dangerously reliant on Moscow for its energy supplies. Red lines must be drawn for cooperation with the Kremlin and other authoritarian regimes, said Sergey Lagodinsky, a Green member of the European Parliament. According to opinion polls, the Greens are likely to be part of the next ruling coalition after this autumn’s general election. (The Wall Street Journal, 08.11.21)
- Russian authorities have effectively banned Belgian NGO International Partnership for Human Rights after declaring it an “undesirable” organization amid a Kremlin clampdown on civil society. (RFE/RL, 08.13.21)
- Russia has barred entry to 'anti-Russian' British officials in retaliation to human rights and anti-corruption sanctions from London, Moscow announced August 9. Britain in December banned entry to three Russians accused of torturing LGBT people in Chechnya and later to 14 Russians in April as part of global Magnitsky sanctions. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.10.21)
- Russia has given veteran BBC correspondent Sarah Rainsford until the end of the month to leave the country in retaliation for what it called discrimination against Russian media in Britain. The expulsion is a response to what Moscow said was a retaliatory move for London refusing to issue visas to Russian reporters, Bloomberg said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.13.21)
- Pfizer chief Albert Bourla has short shrift for Russia, which he accuses of masterminding an online effort to spread falsehoods. “So many times we’ve got information from the [US] state department who tell us: ‘We see that Russia is attacking you in an effort to discredit your vaccine.’” (Financial Times, 08.13.21)
- A journalistic investigation has brought new insights into the “key” role of a Russian military contractor in the civil war in Libya, including links to war crimes and Russia’s military. The contents of a Samsung tablet left behind by an unidentified member of the Vagner Group after the contractor's fighters retreated from areas south of Tripoli in spring 2020 include frontline maps in Russian, the BBC said on August 11. (RFE/RL, 08.11.21)
Ukraine:
- Russia’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment on Kyiv’s call to deploy U.S. air defense systems on Ukrainian soil, branding it as unserious. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Reznikov urged at a meeting with US Jamestown Foundation Head Glen Howard earlier on August 10 during his working visit to the United States "to expand the security package for Ukraine" primarily by deploying US air defense systems and forces. (TASS, 08/10.21)
- Belarus will not support Ukraine if it tries to use force to regain Donbas with the help of third countries, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said. (Interfax, 08.09.21)
- One Ukrainian soldier was killed and another one was wounded in the village of Pisky, according to the 58th separate motorized infantry brigade named after Hetman Ivan Vyhovsky. (Interfax, 08.07.21)
Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:
- "What is the sense for Russia to spend money and create bases here today? I would be interested if some serious missile systems were deployed here. But they cannot be brought directly to the theater of military operations, so close to NATO as they would come under the fire of conventional weapons and no missiles would be required," Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko argued. "That is why, Russia will never move them here, especially nuclear warheads as they will be targeted directly from the territories of Poland and Lithuania," he said. The president of Belarus also explained that he saw no need for creating a Russian airbase in the republic as it would take about three minutes for combat aircraft to fly from Smolensk or Pskov to Minsk. “We agreed Shoigu and we demonstrated it to them that God forbid that you should dare, and these aircraft are the carriers of nuclear weapons.," Lukashenko said. Belarus is interested in deliveries of the Russian-made S-400s, he said. (TASS, 08.09.21,TASS, 08.09.21, TASS, 08.09.21)
- “I have grown into this country; it has grown into me. ... This doesn’t mean that I have grabbed and will hold on with my blue fingers. for this chair. No. After me people will come, even very soon. Only you do not worry there in your midst [on the timing], “ Alexander Lukashenko said on August 9 at a meeting with journalists and members of the public, answering the question of who will become president of Belarus after him. (The Tribune, 08.09.21)
- Lukashenko said he would recognize Crimea "when the last oligarch in Russia recognizes Crimea and starts supplying products there." Lukashenko was speaking at his annual conference on the one-year anniversary of the vote that handed him a sixth term in office but was denounced by the opposition and the West as rigged. (AP/The Republic World, 08/09.21)
- The United States, Britain, and Canada have announced new trade and financial sanctions on Belarus. Among those entities targeted in the fresh U.S. sanctions was Belaruskali, the Belarusian potash producer, a major source of income for the Lukashenko regime, the White House announced. The U.S. Treasury Department on August 9 added 27 Belarusian individuals and 17 entities to the list of those under sanctions, which drain the country's export revenues. Also targeted was Belarus's International Olympic Committee, "for its failure to protect Belarusian athletes from political discrimination and repression." (RFE/RL, 08.08.21, The New York Times, 08.09.21)
- ''You can choke on your sanctions,'' Lukashenko said, referring to additional penalties imposed by Britain and the United States on August 9 against him and his allies. The regime of Lukashenko has responded to the latest round of U.S. sanctions by requesting Washington to reduce its embassy staff in Minsk to five people by September 1. (RFE/RL, 08.11.21The New York Times, 08.09.21)
- U.S. Ambassador Julie Fisher stressed that the United States continues to call for an "inclusive dialogue" inside Belarus that “leads to a new election” under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) “after the unconditional release of all political prisoners.” (RFE/RL, 08.07.21)
- Attempts by Belarus to destabilize the EU by facilitating illegal immigration into member states show that western sanctions against Minsk are working and its pariah dictator Alexander Lukashenko is “desperate”, Ylva Johansson, the European commissioner for home affairs, said. (Financial Times, 08.10.21)
- The European Union said on August 10 that it hopes for a stabilization of the migrant situation in Lithuania after Iraq suspended flights from Baghdad to Minsk, as neighboring Latvia declared a state of emergency at its border with Belarus following an influx of migrants from the Middle East and elsewhere. (RFE/RL, 08.10.21)
- Responding to a surge of migrants from Belarus that the Baltic country has described as “hybrid warfare”, Latvia’s interior minister Marija Golubeva proposed the state of emergency on August 9 Golubeva proposed last week to build a 134km barrier with Belarus and a 54km fence with Russia as part of a plan to deal with the increase in migrants. Latvia completed a 93km border fence with Russia to deter illegal migration earlier this year. (Financial Times, 08.09.21)
- Ukraine has sent more than 38 tons of barbed wire to Lithuania as "humanitarian aid" as the EU country struggles to stem an influx of illegal migrants from neighboring Belarus, authorities said on August 12. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.12.21)
- The Belarus-EU migrant crisis has spread to Minsk’s close ally Russia as border guards were reported to have detained several people from the Middle East attempting to illegally cross into the country August 10. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.11.21)
- IMF says it's keeping "close watch" on the situation in Belarus amid calls for the global lender to deny Alexander Lukashenko's government access to newly allocated funds The U.S. Congress's bipartisan Friends of Belarus Caucus recently expressed "deep regret" over plans by the IMF to earmark nearly $1 billion in funds to Minsk, saying the money would "undermine the substantial efforts made by the democratic movement in Belarus to fight back against the regime's repression." (RFE/RL, 08.13.21)
- Police on August 12 detained a candidate in last year’s disputed Belarussian presidential election, Andrey Dzmitryyeu. (RFE/RL, 08.12.21)
- World kickboxing champion and MMA fighter Alexei Kudin has been imprisoned on charges of assaulting a security officer during protests against last year's disputed election in Belarus. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.11.21)
- The Taliban could isolate Afghanistan's capital Kabul in 30 days and potentially take it over in 90 days, a U.S. defense official told Reuters on August 11, citing a U.S. intelligence assessment. (Reuters, 08.11.21)
- The Taliban controls Afghanistan’s borders with ex-Soviet Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Shoigu said August 10 as the three allies wrapped up military exercises near the Afghan border amid the militant group’s advance. He noted that the Taliban has vowed not to cross into Afghanistan's neighboring Central Asian republics, which Moscow views as its sphere of influence. (The Moscow Times, 08.11.21)
- The Taliban says representatives of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Russia have held talks with the chief of the group's political office in Qatar amid growing regional concerns over the insurgents' ongoing military offensive across Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 08.10.21)
- Uzbekistan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has announced it will nominate incumbent President Shavkat Mirziyoev for the country’s October 24 presidential election. (RFE/RL, 08.07.21)
- Local activists have warned of authorities' persistent use of compulsory rectal exams to abuse detainees and other suspects in Uzbekistan. (RFE/RL, 08.10.21)
- Former Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev returned to Moscow on August 8 after a weeklong visit to Kyrgyzstan during which he was questioned by authorities over alleged corruption around the development of the Kumtor gold-mine project. (RFE/RL, 08.09.21)
- Internet users in the tightly controlled Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan say they are being forced to swear on the Koran that they will not use virtual private networks (VPNs). (RFE/RL, 08.10.21)
- The Russian military has blamed Azerbaijan for breaching its volatile truce with Armenia for the first time since deploying its peacekeeping mission. “The Azerbaijani armed forces carried out two strikes using attack-type quadcopters on the position of the Nagorno-Karabakh armed formations,” the Russian Defense Ministry said on its website. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 08.13.21)
IV. Quoteworthy:
- “I am somewhat hesitant when they [China and Russia] are saying this is not an alliance,” said Roderick Lee, research director at the China Aerospace Studies Institute at Air University. “If we see them operating side by side and they start sharing some intelligence and communications, then there will be some interoperability in a conflict or crisis.” (Financial Times, 08.09.21).