This Week’s Highlights

• The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has singled out a "growing rivalry with China, Russia, and other authoritarian states" as a key challenge facing the United States in its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. At the same time, the document notes the extension of New START, pledging that the Biden administration will “engage in meaningful dialogue with Russia and China on a range of emerging military technological developments that implicate strategic stability,” “pursue new arms control arrangements [and] take steps to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy.” 
• Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in an interview there would be “seen and unseen” elements in the U.S. response to the SolarWinds attack, the New York Times reports. But the goal, he argued, would be to shape Russian President Vladimir Putin’s behavior over the long term.
• The U.S. and EU have announced coordinated sanctions against Russian officials over the poisoning and imprisonment of Alexei Navalny, but spared Russian oligarchs, RFE/RL reports. However, Western officials have warned that Biden might be prepared to place restrictions on Russia’s government debt if Russia is found to break international laws against the use of chemical weapons and if the U.S. president could convince Europe to do the same, according to RFE/RL. The Russian ruble dropped 1 percent March 5 on these reports while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the potential new sanctions "crazy," The Moscow Times reports.
• A Gallup poll released March 1 demonstrated that the Americans’ overall favorable view of Russia has dropped six points to a new low of 22 percent, and 77 percent now have an unfavorable opinion of the country.
• China’s Defense Ministry released a statement March 1 that said: "Today’s China-Russia all-embracing strategic partnership is a model of a new type of international relations … The two sides adhere to the principle of non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries, which differs completely from the military alliance between some countries,” the South China Morning Post reports. Russia and China have commitments under the 2001 friendship treaty, which says that in the event of a danger to either side, consultations should be held on the means of eliminating that threat. "If we look at the U.S.-Japanese treaty or the NATO treaty, the commitments there are also vague. The wording in the Russian-Chinese treaty does not differ that much from them," Russian Sinologist Vasily Kashin said, TASS reports.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin held talks in Moscow March 5 and agreed to set up three joint military training centers, with one of them to be based in Belarus, Interfax reports. The two also discussed the Zapad (West) 2021 exercise that will be one of the largest joint exercises.
• Sixty-four percent of Russians believe that the coronavirus was invented in a lab, according to Russia’s leading independent pollster the Levada Center, The Moscow Times reports.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• The Interim National Security Strategic Guidance released by the Biden administration says: “Pandemics and other biological risks, the escalating climate crisis, cyber and digital threats, international economic disruptions, protracted humanitarian crises, violent extremism and terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction all pose profound and, in some cases, existential dangers. None can be effectively addressed by one nation acting alone.” (The White House, 03.04.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia expects that the new U.S. administration will display a reasonable approach in launching a diplomatic process based on reciprocal steps with North Korea, in order to settle the nuclear problem on the Korean Peninsula, the Russian delegation to the IAEA Board of Governors said in its statement March 3. (TASS, 03.03.21)
• North Korea-Russia trade plummeted by nearly 42 percent in 2020. (NK News, 03.05.21)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Moscow hopes it will soon be possible to revive the JCPOA on Iran’s nuclear program in its original form, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (TASS, 03.04.21)
• The U.S said it hopes Iran will “engage in constructive dialogue” after Washington’s European partners agreed to drop a plan to censure Tehran at an IAEA meeting in Vienna. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on March 3 the U.S. would ease sanctions as part of Iran returning to the deal. (RFE/RL, 03.05.21)
• Iran has rejected a European invitation to attend direct talks with the U.S. over a return to the nuclear deal Trump abandoned in 2018, but says it will continue “consultations” through other channels. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said Feb. 28 that timing was not “appropriate” for such a meeting because “there is still no change in the U.S. position and behavior.” (Financial Times, 02.28.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/saber rattling:

• The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has singled out a "growing rivalry with China, Russia and other authoritarian states" as a key challenge facing the United States in its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance.
  • “We face a world of rising nationalism, receding democracy, growing rivalry with China, Russia and other authoritarian states and a technological revolution that is reshaping every aspect of our lives.”
  • “Russia remains determined to enhance its global influence and play a disruptive role on the world stage. Both Beijing and Moscow have invested heavily in efforts meant to check U.S. strengths and prevent us from defending our interests and allies around the world.”
  • “In the face of strategic challenges from an increasingly assertive China and destabilizing Russia, we will assess the appropriate structure, capabilities and sizing of the force, and, working with the Congress, shift our emphasis from unneeded legacy platforms and weapons systems to free up resources for investments in the cutting-edge technologies and capabilities that will determine our military and national security advantage in the future.” (RFE/RL, 03.04.21, The White House 03.04.21)
• Coming "sooner rather than later" will be responses to Moscow's SolarWinds hacks of federal agencies and private sector entities, any malign activity in the 2020 election and reports of Russian bounties on the lives of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, a U.S. official said. (The Washington Post, 03.02.21)
• A new CIA task force is trying to expand efforts to find the cause of a series of mysterious incidents that injured its officers around the world, in particular in Cuba, China and Russia, the agency said. (New York Times, 03.04.21)
• The U.S. and Canada plan to modernize a network of defense satellites and radar in the Arctic, in a bid to counter a growing military presence in the north from Russia and China. (Wall Street Journal, 03.01.21)
• A Russian fighter jet on March 3 was scrambled to escort nuclear-capable, long-range U.S. bombers flying over the Baltics, the Russian military said. The U.S. Air Force said earlier that one bomber had flown over the capitals of NATO members Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in a show of solidarity with allies. Russia’s National Defense Management Center said crew members on a Sukhoi Su-27 fighter identified two B-1B strategic bombers and escorted them over the Baltic Sea, Interfax reported. (The Moscow Times, 03.04.21)
• A U.S. warship, guided-missile destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill, docked in Sudan March 1 shortly after Russia's Admiral Grigorovich frigate arrived in Port Sudan, where the Russian Navy said "a logistical support base" would be created. (AFP, 03.01.21)
• Biden’s White House has announced support for a pair of Trump's signature initiatives—the Artemis program, NASA's effort to return astronauts to the lunar surface, and the Space Force, the sixth branch of the armed services. (The Washington Post, 03.03.21)
• Germany has convicted two of its citizens on charges of violating the European Union’s arms embargo with Russia, the DPA news agency reported March 5. German investigators said the two defendants sold equipment for missile production to a Russian entrepreneur seven times between 2016-2018. (The Moscow Times, 03.05.21)

NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned against any attempts to “divide Europe from North America” and said that the European Union “cannot defend” the continent alone amid the threat of terrorism and Russia's "destabilizing behavior." (RFE/RL, 03.05.21)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• The Interim National Security Strategic Guidance released by the Biden administration says: “We will address the existential threat posed by nuclear weapons. We will head off costly arms races and re-establish our credibility as a leader in arms control. That is why we moved quickly to extend the New START Treaty with Russia. Where possible, we will also pursue new arms control arrangements. We will take steps to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, while ensuring our strategic deterrent remains safe, secure and effective and that our extended deterrence commitments to our allies remain strong and credible. And we will engage in meaningful dialogue with Russia and China on a range of emerging military technological developments that implicate strategic stability.” (The White House, 03.04.21)
  • Russia positively treats the signals from the White House and the State Department regarding plans to restore dialogue between the U.S. and Russia on strategic stability, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said. (Interfax, 03.05.21)
• Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on Feb. 27 urged Russian President Vladimir Putin and Biden to push for deeper restrictions on nuclear weapons. "It is clear that the main thing is to avoid nuclear war. Since such a problem must be avoided, it is impossible to solve it alone, it is necessary to meet." If the desire to achieve disarmament and to strengthen security prevails, so much can be accomplished." (AFP, 02.27.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• The Interim National Security Strategic Guidance released by the Biden administration says:
  • “Despite significant successes against international terrorism, a diffuse and dispersed threat to Americans remains. Domestic violent extremism challenges core principles of our democracy and demands policies that protect public safety while promoting our values and respecting our laws. We must adapt our approach to counterterrorism, including by aligning our resources to evolving threats.”
  • “We will crack down on tax havens and illicit financing that contribute to income inequality, fund terrorism and generate pernicious foreign influence.”
  • “We will work to responsibly end America’s longest war in Afghanistan while ensuring that Afghanistan does not again become a safe haven for terrorist attacks against the United States.” (RFE/RL, 03.04.21, The White House, 03.04.21)

Conflict in Syria:

• Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the new U.S. envoy to the U.N., on March 4 accused Russia of seeking to stymie efforts to hold the Syrian government accountable for its use of chemical weapons during its long civil war. "We all know the Assad regime has repeatedly used chemical weapons. So why hasn't the Syrian government been held accountable?" she said. Moscow's U.N. envoy, Vassily Nebenzia, defended Damascus, saying: "On Russia's advice, Syria has abided by the OPCW in good faith, and has gotten rid of its chemical weapons arsenal.” (The Moscow Times, 03.04.21)
• Syrian media on Feb. 28 reported that a Russian helicopter crashed in the countryside of the town of Tel Tamr, north of Syria’s Hasakah, two kilometers from the former dairy farm that Russian forces use as their base. A patrol mission in Syria’s al-Hasakah governorate was not fully completed because an emergency landing of a Russian Mi-35 helicopter, Vyacheslav Sytnik, deputy chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, said Feb. 28. (Defense Blog, 02.28.21, TASS, 02.28.21)
• A statement by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan denigrating the effectiveness of Russia’s Iskander ballistic missiles not only triggered a domestic political crisis, it compelled the Russian Defense Ministry to release combat footage to defend the reputation of the land-based hypersonic weapon. It just so happens that the video includes a recording showing one of the missiles slamming precisely into a hospital in Syria. (Forbes, 03.01.21)
• Biden says the air strike against an Iranian-backed militia in eastern Syria should be seen by Tehran as a warning against any further aggressive actions. "You can't act with impunity," he told reporters Feb. 26 when asked what the message was from the air strikes announced a day earlier. (RFE/RL, 02.27.21)

Cyber security:

• The harder-to-predict action will be the response to the SolarWinds attack. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan said in an interview there would be “seen and unseen” elements. But the goal, he argued, would be to shape Putin’s behavior over the long term. “A set of measures that are understood by the Russians, but may not be visible to the broader world, are actually likely to be the most effective measures in terms of clarifying what the United States believes is inbounds and out of bounds,” he said. (New York Times, 03.04.21)
• The cyberattack that compromised many U.S. government and corporate networks is fueling a debate among big tech companies over what the safest way is for customers to store critical data. It pits Microsoft, which is urging clients to rely on cloud-computing systems, against others including Dell Technologies and International Business Machines (IBM), who argue customers want to mix the cloud with the more traditional on-premise data-storage systems in a construct called hybrid-cloud. (Wall Street Journal, 02.27.21)

Elections interference:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• OPEC and its allies decided on March 4 to keep a tight rein on production, sticking with its current quotas for April with some exceptions. Russia, which has been pushing hardest for increases, will be allowed a small boost of 130,000 barrels a day while Kazakhstan was granted a 20,000 barrel a day boost. (New York Times, 03.04.21)
• During a briefing between the U.S. State Department and congressional staff over Putin's Russia-Germany gas pipeline, the Biden officials denied negotiating with the Germans over a potential side deal to allow the pipeline to be finished. (Axios, 02.27.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• U.S. asset manager BlackRock and the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar will be cornerstone investors in the London flotation of Russian discount retailer Fix Price, which could value it at more than $8 billion. Fix Price is targeting up to $9.75 a share for its initial public offering this month, making it the largest Russian company to float since the first Western sanctions against Moscow in 2014. (Financial Times, 03.01.21)
• Prominent U.S. investor Michael Calvey, who is facing embezzlement charges in Russia, said on March 3 he wanted to continue working in the country pending the outcome of his trial. (AFP, 03.03.21)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The U.S. and the EU have announced coordinated sanctions against Russian officials over the poisoning and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. A U.S. Treasury statement named Russian officials FSB chief Nikolai Bortnikov, deputy chief of presidential staff Sergei Kiriyenko, Deputy Defense Ministers Aleksei Krivoruchko and Pavel Popov, Prosecutor-General Igor Krasnov, Federal Penitentiary Service chief Aleksandr Kalashnikov and Andrei Yarin, chief of the Kremlin's domestic policy directorate, among those sanctioned. The announcement came on the heels of EU sanctions against four senior officials: FSIN chief Kalashnikov, Investigative Committee chief Aleksandr Bastrykin, Prosecutor-General Krasnov and National Guard chief Viktor Zolotov. (RFE/RL, 03.02.21)
  • It “was not meant to be a silver bullet or an end date to what has been a difficult relationship with Russia,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said March 2 in reference to the sanctions. “We expect the relationship to continue to be a challenge. We're prepared for that. And we're neither seeking to reset our relations with Russia, nor are we seeking to escalate.” (RFE/RL, 03.03.21)
  • The U.S. sanctions did not target individuals who are among Putin’s most important constituencies: the so-called oligarchs, wealthy businessmen who control major Russian industries and are not part of the government but who are seen as largely beholden to Kremlin directives. That disappointed some Navalny allies, such as Maria Pevchikh, a leading corruption investigator with Navalny’s foundation, and opposition figures. Leonid Volkov, top aide for Navalny, said he was "very disappointed" by remarks from EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell about sanctions being targeted at people "directly connected" to Navalny's arrest, arguing that oligarchs close to Putin were also linked. (RFE/RL, 03.03.21, AFP, 03.03.21)
  • Russia’s ruble, which is sensitive to sanction risks, rose more than 1 percent against the dollar on March 2 on media reports that the U.S. and EU would target government officials and forgo sanctions that would harm Russia’s economy. (Financial Times, 03.02.21)
  • The Russian government discussed a proposal to cut borrowing this year by 0.5-1 trillion rubles ($6.8 billion-13.5 billion) due to fears of more U.S. sanctions being imposed that could target sovereign debt, Bloomberg reported March 3. (bne IntelliNews, 03.04.21)
  • Moscow says it plans a retaliatory "stop list" on U.S. citizens in response to Washington's decision to impose new sanctions. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists that Moscow would respond to the sanctions in a way that best served its interests. His comments came after Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the sanctions "a hostile move toward Russia" and warned the West not to "play with fire." Peskov said the sanctions "don't achieve their goals," while Lavrov said Moscow will certainly respond to any new sanctions. "Of course, we will respond. Nobody canceled one of the rules of diplomacy—reciprocity," he said. (RFE/RL, 03.02.21, RFE/RL,  03.03.21, RFE/RL, 03.05.21)
• The Russian ruble dropped 1 percent March 5 on reports that the U.S. and U.K. are considering a second round of tough sanctions against Russia over the poisoning and jailing of Navalny. Officials told Bloomberg that if Russia is found to break international laws against the use of chemical weapons—following the nerve agent attacks against Sergei Skripal in Britain in 2018 and Navalny last year—Biden would be prepared to place restrictions on Russia’s government debt, if he could convince Europe to do the same. Commenting on those reports on March 5, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the potential new sanctions "crazy." (The Moscow Times, 03.05.21, RFE/RL, 03.05.21)
• A senior U.S. official said the "tone and substance" of the Biden administration's relationship with Russia would be "very different" from the Trump administration’s. "We expect this relationship to remain a challenge and it is one we are prepared for. Our goal is to have a relationship with Russia that is predictable and stable," the second administration official said. He added that the Biden administration is willing to work with Russia on issues where the two countries have common interests. (RFE/RL, 03.02.21)
• Russia hopes to bolster its dialogue with the U.S. on a range of issues, such as the situations around North Korea, Syria and Afghanistan, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said. “It would be in the interests of our countries to unite efforts in countering the coronavirus pandemic, terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, climate change, as well as in joint space exploration and environmental protection in the Arctic,” he said. (Interfax, 03.05.21)
• U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad will visit Russia soon to attend a meeting of the so-called expanded Troika on Afghanistan, Russian presidential envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said. (Interfax, 03.03.31)
• Non-renewable energy was used to move frozen wind turbines back online in Texas during last month’s deep freeze, Putin said March 2. “Texas froze when it was cold,” Putin said during a videoconference with coal industry leaders. “They had to use methods that are a far cry from environmental protection to warm the windmills up,” he said. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.21)
• Russia has fined the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty media outlet more than half a million dollars so far for violating the country’s controversial “foreign agent” law, Interfax reported March 3. The U.S. State Department has expressed "deep concern" about what it calls Russian government efforts "to clamp down on the exercise of freedom of expression." (RFE/RL, 03.04.21, The Moscow Times, 03.03.21)
• Russia on March 4 demanded an explanation from Facebook after the social media giant said it had derailed a campaign to mislead Russians protesting the arrest of Navalny. (AFP, 03.04.21)
• Russia's communications watchdog accused Twitter of violating Russian law by failing to delete banned content for the past several years, putting more pressure on a platform used by Kremlin opposition activists and exposing it to potential fines. (Wall Street Journal, 03.02.21)
• A Gallup poll released March 1 demonstrated that Americans’ overall favorable view of Russia has dropped six points to a new low of 22 percent, and 77 percent now have an unfavorable opinion of the country. The poll also demonstrated that the American public’s opinion toward China is at a record low. Just 20 percent of Americans expressed a favorable view of China, down 13 percentage points from last year, when the country had tied a previous record low. This year, 79 percent of Americans said they saw China negatively. (New York Times, 03.03.21, Gallup, March 2021)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia on March 5 confirmed 11,024 new coronavirus cases, down from 11,385 the day before, and 462 deaths. Russia recorded more than 55,000 excess deaths in January, data from the country’s official statistics agency (Rosstat) published March 5 showed. Since the start of the pandemic until the end of January—the latest such data available—Russia has recorded 394,000 more deaths than in the previous period. That represents a 24 percent increase in fatality and one of the highest excess death tolls in the world, even after adjusting for population. (The Moscow Times, 03.05.21, The Moscow Times, 03.05.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.

• All but nine Russian regions have begun administering coronavirus vaccines nearly two months into the country's nationwide vaccination campaign, Putin said March 4. (The Moscow Times, 03.04.21)
• A whopping 64 percent of Russians believe the coronavirus was invented in a lab, while just 23 percent believe it appeared naturally. Some 62 percent are not willing to get a Sputnik V vaccine and 69 percent are not afraid of catching the virus. These astonishing results were released by Russia’s leading independent pollster, the Levada Center. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.21)
• A Nielsen survey, published March 1, found 53 percent of Russian respondents said they were worse off as a result of the coronavirus crisis—twice the level recorded by the same survey in September and above the global average of 46 percent. But presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected the results as “incorrect,” in a briefing with reporters, Kommersant reported. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.21)
• Since January 2020, food prices in Russia have risen 8.2 percent; vegetables 17.5 percent; fruits 13.5 percent. (RFE/RL, 03.05.21)
• Navalny is going to serve his prison sentence in a penal colony notorious for disciplinary measures considered harsh even by Russian standards, Russian news outlets reported on March 1. Penal Colony No. 2 and also known by its initials IK2, is in the Vladimir Region, 100 kilometers east of Moscow. (New York Times, 03.02.21, RFE/RL, 02.28.21)
• Russia’s Justice Ministry has added the professional medical organization Alliance of Doctors to its controversial list of organizations fulfilling the functions of a “foreign agent.” The Alliance of Doctors is headed by ophthalmologist Anastasia Vasilyeva, who has treated Navalny in the past. (RFE/RL, 03.03.21)
• Several thousand people commemorated the sixth anniversary of the death of Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in central Moscow. Opposition supporters laid flowers on the Bolshoi Moskvoretsky Bridge—a short walk from the Kremlin—where Nemtsov was gunned down on Feb. 27, 2015. (RFE/RL, 02.27.21)
• Dozens of Russian non-profits have pleaded for Putin to strike down upcoming requirements to disclose their donors’ foreign funding, Kommersant reported March 5. The dormant rules set to reactivate this spring will leave the homeless, elderly, orphans and seriously ill without support due to fewer donations, said a group representing 57 NGOs. (The Moscow Times, 03.05.21)
• Veteran Russian activist Lev Ponomaryov has shut his well-respected human rights organization due to the country's controversial laws on "foreign agents." Ponomaryov announced his decision to shut down his For Human Rights NGO in a televised interview on March 1, the day laws increasing fines for violating the so-called "foreign agent" law took effect. (RFE/RL, 03.02.21)
• Putin has called for the Internet in Russia to be bound by "moral laws" that he says will stop society from "collapsing"—suggesting that Russian children are being exploited by his political opponents at anti-Kremlin demonstrations. (RFE/RL, 03.05.21)
• Russia’s leading independent pollster, the Levada Center, surveyed 1,600 individuals in 137 settlements across 50 regions of Russia on Jan. 29-Feb. 2, 2021, and found that 64 percent of Russians cited television as a source from which they most often learn about news. Meanwhile, over the same time period, Levada found that both social networks (42 percent)  and internet publications (39 percent) greatly increased in popularity as news sources. (Russia Matters, 03.03.21)
• Russia’s ruling party is looking to ban the propaganda of polyamory and bisexuality as it weighs options to reverse its population decline and defend what it calls traditional values, Kommersant reported March 5. (The Moscow Times, 03.05.21)
• Electrochemical Plant, a subsidiary of Rosatom's nuclear fuel manufacturer TVEL, recorded a 14 percent increase in revenue from the sale of stable isotopes in 2020, exceeding 1.5 billion rubles ($20.1 million) for the first time. The Zelenogorsk, Krasnoyarsk-based company's global market share of the stable isotope market remains over 40 percent, TVEL said. (World Nuclear News, 02.26.21)
• The Research Institute of Atomic Reactors in the Ulyanovsk region of Russia has completed the second cycle of irradiation of the experimental fuel assemblies with VVER and pressurized water reactor fuel rods in the MIR research reactor. This marks the latest milestone in the development of Russian accident tolerant fuel. (World Nuclear News, 03.04.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin held talks in Moscow March 5 and agreed to set up three joint military training centers, with one of them to be based in Belarus, the Russian Defense Ministry stated. They also discussed a plan of joint military cooperation events for 2021. The Zapad (West) 2021 exercise will be one of the largest joint exercises, Shoigu said. (Interfax, 03.05.21)
• Over 120,000 conscripts will join the Russian Army during the spring campaign that will begin on April 1, Shoigu said March 4. (TASS, 03.04.21)
• A Soyuz rocket blasted off from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on Feb. 28 carrying Russia's first satellite for monitoring the Arctic's climate, the Roscosmos space agency said. Video published by the Russian space agency showed the Soyuz blaster launching against grey skies, carrying an Arktika-M satellite. (The Moscow Times, 02.28.21)
• The Russian military will receive a pilot batch of the hyped Armata T-14 tanks next year, Shoigu said March 4. The Armata T-14, which is undergoing state tests amid multiple delivery delays since its first public display in 2015, will be Russia’s first main battle tank to be deployed in 40 years. (The Moscow Times, 03.04.21)
• According to Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod, the Russian Army has taken delivery of the advanced version of the T-90 main battle tank. The T-90M tank considerably surpasses its T-90 predecessor by its combat efficiency while keeping such advantages of the previous model as exceptional reliability and the minimum amount of maintenance in its operation. (Defense Blog, 03.01.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A court in Moscow has extended the pretrial detention of former journalist Ivan Safronov, who is charged with high treason, an accusation he has rejected outright. The Lefortovo district court on March 2 ruled that Safronov must be held until at least May 7. (RFE/RL, 03.02.21)
• A second Russian police officer, a St. Petersburg police major, has been suspected of leaking security officers’ travel data from the day of Navalny’s poisoning, Kommersant reported March 1. According to Kommersant, an internal security unit at the St. Petersburg police department had uncovered one of its officers accessing Navalny’s Aug. 20 flight manifest and “transferring” it to an unknown party. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.21)
• Russian law enforcement is investigating the theft of radio equipment from a launch site at the Baikonur cosmodrome, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported March 2. Traces of a break-in at launch pad No. 110 were first discovered on Feb. 19. The launchpad’s entrance was broken open and radio parts containing rare earth metals were missing, RIA Novosti reported. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The EU has begun analyzing clinical trial data for Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine—the first step in a process which could lead to the vaccine’s approval for use across the 27-member bloc. The European Medicines Agency said March 4 it had begun a so-called “rolling review” of Sputnik V, in which it will analyze the existing published data on the vaccine’s safety and effectiveness and decide if there is enough information for Russia to apply for authorization. (AFP, 03.04.21)
  • The Czech Republic could start using Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine before it has been approved by the EU’s medicines regulator, prime minister Andrej Babis said Feb. 28, as the central European country struggles to cope with a huge surge in COVID-19 cases.  (Financial Times, 02.28.21)
  • Slovakia on March 1 received a first shipment of Russian vaccines as it battles the world's highest COVID death rate, the second EU state after Hungary to receive the Sputnik doses. (AFP, 03.01.21)
• Two U.N. human rights experts have called for an international investigation into the poisoning of Navalny, saying evidence points to the "very likely involvement" of Russian government officials. In a joint statement on March 1, Agnes Callamard, the U.N.'s top expert on extrajudicial, summary and arbitrary executions, and Irene Khan, an expert on freedom of opinion and expression, demanded Navalny's "immediate release" from prison. (RFE/RL, 03.01.21)
• Russia is revoking residence permits and deporting, often informally and without written notice, foreign nationals for participating in recent political protests, the Meduza news website reported March 4. The outlet said it spoke with four citizens of post-Soviet republics who faced deportation orders after attending demonstrations in support of Navalny and the opposition in Belarus. (The Moscow Times, 03.04.21)
• Austria's former foreign minister, Karin Kneissl, who danced with Putin at her wedding, has been nominated for a seat on oil giant Rosneft's board of directors, a government decree said March 3. (AFP, 03.04.21)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Cooperation between the Chinese and Russian armies is based on mutual respect, impartiality and justice and is not aimed at creating a military alliance against third countries, China’s Defense Ministry said March 1. The ministry thus commented on the possibility of a China-Russia military alliance to potentially oppose NATO. "Today’s China-Russia all-embracing strategic partnership is a model of a new type of international relations that are based on mutual respect, impartiality, justice and mutually advantageous cooperation," the Chinese Defense Ministry said. The China-Russia relationship in the military sphere is "a vital support for strategic cooperation of the two countries," according to the statement. “The two sides adhere to the principle of non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries, which differs completely from the military alliance between some countries,” the ministry said. (South China Morning Post, 03.02.21, TASS, 03.01.21)
  • Russia and China have commitments under a 2001 treaty, which says that in the event of a danger to either side, consultations should be held on the means of eliminating that threat. "If we look at the U.S.-Japanese treaty or the NATO treaty, the commitments there are also vague. The wording in the Russian-Chinese treaty does not differ that much from them," Vasily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Far Eastern Studies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. (TASS, 03.04.21)
• The Peace Mission 2021 anti-terror command and staff drills of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will run at a proving ground of Russia’s Central Military District in the summer. (TASS, 03.01.21)
• Russia’s Elemash Machine-building plant has launched a production site for the fabrication of fuel for China's flagship fast neutron reactor, the CFR-600. (World Nuclear News, 03.03.21)
• A Russian court has allowed St. Petersburg scientist Valery Mitko, who is under house arrest, to take daily walks. According to the investigation, the scientist collected materials containing information that constitutes a state secret while on an "espionage mission" and handed them over to the Chinese security services during a trip to China in 2018. (Interfax, 03.05.21)
• The U.S. on March 2 expressed concerns over Russia and China using COVID-19 vaccines to engage with countries in a way where they're "not holding them to the same standard" the U.S. and a number of other countries would do. (Times of India, 03.03.21)
• Vladimir Dedkov from the Pasteur Institute in St. Petersburg and Fabian Leendertz, an emerging diseases specialist at Germany’s Robert Koch Institute, both told the Financial Times that it was extremely unlikely the first cases of Sars-Cov-2 identified in Wuhan in 2019 entered the city on frozen or refrigerated goods. The two were part of the WHO team that travelled to Wuhan in January to investigate the origins of the pandemic. (Financial Times, 03.02.21)

Ukraine:

• The U.S. Defense Department announced March 1 a $125 million package for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, the first of its kind under the Biden administration. The Pentagon said the military aid package includes two additional armed Mark VI patrol boats. The package also includes capabilities to enhance the lethality, command and control and situational awareness of Ukraine’s forces through the provision of additional counter-artillery radars and tactical equipment; continued support for a satellite imagery and analysis capability; and equipment to support military medical treatment and combat evacuation procedures. (Defense Blog, 03.02.21)
• A court in Ukraine on March 3 rejected an extradition request for an American who served in the country’s right-wing paramilitary units. The American, Craig Lang, had been charged in the U.S. in connection with a double murder in Florida. (New York Times, 03.03.21)
• Bell Textron’s “Huey” helicopters, the U.S. military’s workhorse in the Vietnam War, will be assembled in the coming months at Ukroboronprom’s Odesa Aviation Plant under license from the Fort Worth, Texas company. (Ukraine Business News, 03.01.21)
• European Council chief Charles Michel said March 2 the EU has no plans to lift punishing sanctions against Russia that were imposed over the conflict in Ukraine. Michel, who conducted a two-day visit to Ukraine this week, said "Russia has not reciprocated Ukraine's positive steps" to settle the conflict. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.21)
• Ukraine has announced a fresh set of sanctions against 10 individuals close to ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, the latest in a series of moves by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration against actors with ties to Russia. (RFE/RL, 02.26.21)
• Ukraine said March 5 that renewed fighting with Russian-backed separatists was undermining a fragile ceasefire in the east of the country, and urged Western backers to intervene. Eight Ukrainian servicemen have been killed since mid-February. (AFP, 03.05.21)
• Those who deem it necessary for Ukraine to implement the Minsk Agreements on settlement in the Donbass account for 45.3 percent of the Ukrainian population, according to a poll conducted by the Kyiv-based Social Monitoring NGO. The results of the survey suggest that 28.7 percent of respondents would like to see Ukraine withdraw from the negotiations, and 26 percent were undecided. (Interfax, 03.05.21)
• As a solution to the problem of the territories not controlled by the government, 32.6 percent of Ukrainians opted for the provision of a special status and autonomy within Ukraine to these territories, according to a poll conducted by the Kyiv-based Social Monitoring NGO.  While 27.2 percent favor isolation of the areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, 22.1 percent deem it necessary to continue fighting until Ukraine completely restores control over these territories. (Interfax, 03.05.21)
• A February poll by the Levada Center shows that 55 percent of Russians have either a good or very good attitude toward Ukraine, which is 7 percent more than in August 2020. The attitude of Ukrainians toward Russia did not change from September 2020 to February 2021; 41 percent of the Ukrainian respondents had a very good or rather good attitude toward Russia. (Levada Center, 03.03.21)
• Zelenskiy’s move last month to shut down three television channels that are linked to multi-millionaire politician Viktor Medvedchuk, who is close to the Kremlin, has raised hopes that the Ukrainian president is preparing for a wider crackdown on the country’s powerful oligarchs. Most notably, his government has failed to heed demands from the IMF to press criminal charges against Ihor Kolomoisky, a metals and media tycoon, over his alleged involvement in one of Europe’s biggest banking frauds, at PrivatBank. (Financial Times, 03.02.21)
• The U.S. State Department says it has designated Ukrainian tycoon and former public official Kolomoisky, who is accused of involvement in “significant corruption.” It said that during his tenure as governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region from 2014 to 2015, Kolomoisky was “involved in corrupt acts that undermined rule of law and the Ukrainian public’s faith in their government’s democratic institutions and public processes.” In addition to the oligarch, Blinken designated his wife, Iryna Kolomoiska, his daughter, Angelika Kolomoiska and his son, Israel Zvi Kolomoisky, making them also ineligible for entry into the United States. (RFE/RL, 03.05.21)
• The amount of money sent into Ukraine through money transfer systems increased by 19 percent year-on-year, to $2.7 billion. The average amount of one transfer increased by 7 percent, to $393. The top sources of money coming in by money transfers were: the U.S., Italy and Israel. Overall, $12.1 billion was sent into Ukraine last year. (Ukraine Business News, 03.01.21)
• More than 3,000 people have been vaccinated against COVID-19 in Ukraine, Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Health Yaroslav Kucher said. (Interfax, 03.01.21)
• The Security Service of Ukraine says it has disrupted a ring of former and current Ukrainian diplomats accused of smuggling hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of goods—including gold and foreign currency. (RFE/RL, 03.01.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The leader of an Armenian opposition parliamentary faction says talks with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on holding early parliamentary elections have failed to reach a deal so far. Pashinian, who faces a political crisis and a call from the army to resign, has said he is open to holding snap elections, but only if the opposition agrees to certain conditions. "We have held negotiations. No understanding has been reached with the prime minister," Bright Armenia leader Edmond Marukian told reporters after meeting with Pashinian on March 4. (RFE/RL, 03.04.21)
• Polls show that only 31 percent of Armenians favor trying to win back territories lost in the war. Twenty-eight percent are willing to accept “stabilization within the framework of existing borders,” and another 3 percent would be prepared to give up Stepanakert. (Carnegie Moscow Center, 03.01.21)
• "The presence of terrorist groups in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is a subject of Iran’s serious concern," the Iranian ISNA news agency quoted a senior diplomat as saying. According to the diplomat, "all sides [participating in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] assured Iran that terrorist groups do not belong in the region,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on March 1. (TASS, 03.01.21)
• An agreement between Armenia and the EU designed to deepen relations across an array of issues entered into force on March 1.The European Union-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) represents an “important milestone” in relations between the two sides, the EU said. (RFE/RL, 03.01.21)
• During a visit to Georgia, European Council President Charles Michel called on the country’s political parties to engage in a dialogue to defuse an ongoing crisis sparked by last year’s general elections and exacerbated by the recent arrest of a top opposition leader. (RFE/RL, 03.01.21)
• Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko says there will be "no transfer of power" in Belarus, where thousands have demonstrated across the country since early August demanding his resignation over an election they say was rigged. (RFE/RL, 03.02.21)
• An investigation by BYPOL, a network of dissident former officers from the Belarusian security services and criminal justice system, has documented widespread use of Russian weapons and ammunition used by Lukashenko’s forces to put down the protests. This includes many weapons with lethal military capabilities whose use on civilians violates international human rights standards. (Foreign Policy, 03.04.21)
• Belarusian authorities have officially requested that Lithuania extradite opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya. (RFE/RL, 03.05.21)
• The U.S. says it is "deeply concerned" over the release from pretrial detention of Kyrgyz organized-crime figure Kamchy Kolbaev, for whom Washington has offered a $1 million reward. (RFE/RL, 03.03.21)
• Kyrgyzstan’s state debt is nearing $5 billion and approximately $1.8 billion is owed to the Export-Import Bank of China for a series of infrastructure projects over the last decade completed under the Belt and Road Initiative. (RFE/RL, 03.03.21)
• Human Rights Watch is urging Kyrgyzstan to withdraw a draft constitution submitted to lawmakers last month, saying it undermines human rights norms and weakens the checks and balances necessary to prevent abuses of power. (RFE/RL, 03.05.21)
• Freedom House says the coronavirus pandemic, economic uncertainty and conflicts across the world contributed to the decline of global freedom in 2020. The country-by-country review said Kyrgyzstan and Belarus were ranked among nations recording the biggest losses in scores for political rights and civil liberties. The report downgraded the freedom scores of 73 countries, including not just authoritarian nations like China, Belarus and Venezuela but also "troubled democracies" like the United States and India. (RFE/RL, 03.03.21)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu says her country has received a shipment of COVID-19 vaccines under the global COVAX scheme for poorer countries, a first for Europe. (RFE/RL, 03.05.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.