This Week’s Highlights

• There is no more oil output deal between Russia, its allies and members of OPEC oil-producing countries, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said March 6, Reuters reports. Talks between OPEC and Russia over whether to cut oil production in response to the coronavirus outbreak collapsed without a deal on March 6, sending crude prices plunging more than 9 percent to their lowest level in three years.
• Turkey and Russia reached agreement on a ceasefire in Syria's northwestern Idlib province after about six hours of talks between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Moscow, according to AFP and Reuters. The deal also envisages setting up a 12-kilometer-wide security corridor along the M4 highway. The corridor is to be jointly patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops, starting March 15. Russia appears to be reinforcing Syria at its fastest rate since October, when U.S. forces withdrew. Five Russian warships have passed through the Bosporus straits since Feb. 28, and an addition five cargo aircraft have also flown to Syria since Feb. 28, Reuters reports.
• The U.N.'s atomic watchdog says Iran has nearly tripled its stockpile of enriched uranium over the past three months, in sharp violation of the 2015 nuclear deal, according to RFE/RL.
• U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper accused Russia of violating the Treaty on Open Skies, saying Moscow has been blocking the United States from conducting flights over the city of Kaliningrad and near Georgia, which are permitted by the agreement, RFE/RL reports.
• The coronavirus outbreak last week pushed Brent crude down near Russia’s break-even price of $42 a barrel, threatening to undermine the policy that has helped Moscow run a budget surplus and save $125 billion in excess oil and gas revenue in a national wealth fund since 2017, according to the Financial Times. Meanwhile, Russia's tourism sector has already taken a 27 billion ruble ($406 million) hit from the impact of coronavirus, Reuters reports.
• Ukraine said on March 1 it had held talks with the Kremlin on swapping all remaining prisoners from the conflict in east Ukraine, and the next exchange might take place later in March, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, the U.S. Defense Department has signed a new contract for the production of Javelin anti-tank missile systems for partner countries, including Ukraine, RFE/RL reports.
• Bernie Sanders is receiving 7 times as much positive Russian media coverage as Joe Biden, analysis by the Foreign Policy Research Institute shows, Newsweek reports.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The U.N. Security Council discussed North Korea’s latest ballistic missile tests March 5 and didn’t issue any statement but its five European members condemned the “provocative actions,” saying the test undermine regional and international peace, security and stability. (AP, 03.05.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The U.N.'s atomic watchdog says Iran has nearly tripled its stockpile of enriched uranium over the past three months, in sharp violation of the 2015 nuclear deal. (RFE/RL, 03.03.20)
  • The U.S. has called for Iran to be held accountable for its commitments under international nuclear treaties, accusing Tehran of violating safeguards. “All nations must hold Iran accountable to its commitments, otherwise the NPT [Nuclear Proliferation Treaty] isn’t worth the paper it is written on,” U.S. Secretary Mike Pompeo said. (RFE/RL, 03.05.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• No significant developments.

NATO-Russia relations:

• Turkey will activate its Russian-made S-400 missile-defense systems in April, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, possibly setting his country on a collision course with its NATO allies. (Bloomberg, 03.06.20)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Turkey and Russia reached agreement on a ceasefire in Syria's northwestern Idlib province to take effect at midnight, Erdogan said March 5. The agreement was announced following about six hours of talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan in Moscow. The deal also envisages setting up a 12-kilometer-wide security corridor along the M4 highway. The corridor is to be jointly patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops, starting March 15. (AFP, 03.05.20, RFE/RL, 03.05.20)
  • Fifteen people were killed March 6 in clashes between Syrian government forces and jihadist insurgents in southern Idlib, hours after the ceasefire came into effect. (Reuters, 03.06.20)
  • The U.N. needs to cement the ceasefire deal with a no-fly zone to stop any further bombings of hospitals, Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok said on March 6. (Reuters, 03.06.20)
  • Earlier in the week, seeking to avenge the killing last week of Turkish soldiers, Erdogan bombarded Syrian regime targets in the province, warning that the destruction of fighter jets and killing of more than 100 pro-regime combatants is “only the beginning.” Turkey’s air force downed two Syrian jet fighters, testing Russia’s dominance of Syrian airspace. Russia said it cannot guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft over Syria, after Turkey shot down two Syrian war planes and struck a military airport. Russian authorities said the Syrian government operations against what it views as extremist groups in the rebel enclave were fully legitimate. (Financial Times, 03.03.20, Reuters, 03.02.20, Wall Street Journal, 03.01.20)
  • Russia's Defense Ministry said March 4 that fortified rebel positions in Syria's Idlib province had merged with Turkish observation posts, and that artillery attacks on nearby civilian areas and Russia's air base in Syria had become daily. (Reuters, 03.04.20)
• Russia appears to be reinforcing Syria at its fastest rate since October, when U.S. forces withdrew. Five Russian warships have passed through the Bosporus straits since Feb. 28, including large landing ships capable of carrying up to 400 troops and dozens of military vehicles. An addition five cargo aircraft have also flown to Syria since Feb. 28. (Reuters, 03.04.20)
• European countries must support Turkey in Syria if they want a solution to their concerns on migration, Erdogan has warned, as Turkish authorities accused Greek border guards of using live rounds against refugees. (Financial Times, 03.04.20)
• Russia’s military conducted “indiscriminate” bombardments against civilians in Syria last year, and human rights violations in the nine-year-old conflict continue to multiply, according to a U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Syria report released March 2. (Bloomberg, 03.02.20)
• Germany has close economic ties with Russia and could use this leverage to pressure Putin over Moscow's involvement in Syria, its defense minister said on March 4. (Reuters, 03.04.20)

Cyber security:

• The U.S., Britain and Estonia have accused Russian military intelligence of conducting massive cyberattacks against the Georgian government and media websites in a bid "to sow discord and disrupt the lives of ordinary Georgians." (RFE/RL, 03.06.20)

Elections interference:

• Bernie Sanders is receiving 7 times as much positive Russian media coverage as Joe Biden, analysis by the Foreign Policy Research Institute shows. (Newsweek, 03.06.20)
• A report from professor Young Mie Kim found that Russia-linked social media accounts are now posting about the same divisive issues—race relations, gun laws and immigration—as they did in 2016. Since then, however, the Russians have grown better at imitating U.S. campaigns and political fan pages online, said Kim, who analyzed thousands of posts. (AP, 03.05.20)
• U.S. prosecutors say they have a witness who will directly implicate Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian businessman known as “Putin’s chef,” in schemes to carry out election interference overseas. (Politico, 03.04.20)

Energy exports from CIS:

• There is no more oil output deal between Russia, its allies and members of OPEC oil-producing countries, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said March 6, adding that the OPEC+ group of nations would continue to monitor the market situation. “Considering the decision taken today, from April 1 of this year onwards, neither we nor any OPEC or non-OPEC country is required to make (oil) output cuts,” Novak said. (Reuters, 03.06.20)
• Talks between OPEC and Russia over whether to cut oil production in response to the coronavirus outbreak collapsed without a deal on March 6, sending crude prices plunging more than 9 percent to their lowest level in three years. (Financial Times, 03.06.20)
  • OPEC had agreed on March 5 to cut oil output by an extra 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2020 to support prices that have been hit by the coronavirus outbreak but made its action conditional on Russia and others joining in. (Reuters, 03.06.20, Reuters, 03.05.20)
• Russia’s state oil company paid $250 million to an external consultant to help secure deals in Iraqi Kurdistan, according to documents that shed new light on transactions that have strengthened Moscow’s presence in the Middle East. The fee was linked to deals that helped Rosneft become the dominant foreign player in the Kurdish oil industry. (Bloomberg, 03.03.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper accused Russia of violating the Treaty on Open Skies, saying Moscow has been blocking the United States from conducting flights over the city of Kaliningrad and near Georgia, which are permitted by the agreement. (RFE/RL, 03.05.20)
• A top State Department official in testimony to Congress said March 5 that Russia is behind “swarms of online, false personas” that sought to spread misinformation about coronavirus on social-media sites, stressing the “entire ecosystem of Russian disinformation is at play.” (The Washington Post, 03.05.20)
• Peter Navarro, the White House’s trade and manufacturing adviser, hit out at countries including Germany, Russia and Turkey, that have rushed to introduce export controls to limit trade in medical supplies in response to the coronavirus outbreak. (Financial Times, 03.05.20)
• Russian billionaire banker Oleg Tinkov faces U.S. jail time on charges of underreporting $1 billion in income and taxes, the U.S. Justice Department announced March 5. Tinkov posted bail in London to avoid extradition to the U.S. (The Moscow Times, 03.06.20, The Moscow Times, 03.02.20)
• A Mexican scientist pleaded not guilty March 3 to U.S. charges that he spied for Russia in Miami. (AP, 03.03.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The coronavirus outbreak last week pushed Brent crude down 10 percent to a year-low of close to $50 a barrel. The fall puts prices near Russia’s break-even price of $42 a barrel, threatening to undermine the policy that has helped Moscow run a budget surplus and save $125 billion in excess oil and gas revenue in a national wealth fund since 2017. (Financial Times, 03.02.20)
• Russia's tourism sector has already taken a 27 billion ruble ($406 million) hit from the impact of coronavirus. (Reuters, 03.05.20)
• Russia’s Audit Chamber said the package of new social spending measures, such as higher allowances for new mothers to spend on housing or their children’s education, would still fall short of the government’s plan to lift an extra one million Russians out of poverty this year, news site RBC has reported. (The Moscow Times, 03.04.20)
• Inflation in Russia edged closer to the lowest level in post-Soviet history, increasing the likelihood of a 7th consecutive interest rate cut later this month despite market volatility. Annual inflation eased to 2.3 percent in February, the Federal Statistics Service reported. (Bloomberg, 03.06.20)
• Putin has submitted to parliament a number of constitutional changes, including amendments that mention God and stipulate that marriage is a union of a man and woman. (AFP, 03.02.20, Bloomberg, 03.02.20)
  • Putin told leaders of the four parties in parliament that proposed constitutional amendments are necessary to ensure Russia moves forward. His comments came ahead of an expected second reading of his proposed amendments March 10. “It is not enough just to draw a line under the certain stage of our country’s development. We need guarantees that it is impossible to slide back in the direction to which we do not want to return,” Putin said. (AP, 03.05.20)
• Putin said March 6 he doesn’t want to scrap presidential term limits or resort to other suggested ways of extending his rule, but otherwise he kept mum about his plans. (AP, 03.06.20)
• A Russian court has fined opposition politician Aleksei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) for failing to register as a foreign agent under a controversial Russian law. Navalny's spokeswoman said the Simonov district court in Moscow ordered FBK to pay a 500,000 ruble (more than $7,500) fine. Earlier, Navalny said his finances, along those of his wife, children, parents, and the head of FBK had been frozen without explanation in a move to discredit and disgrace him. (RFE/RL, 03.05.20, RFE/RL, 03.03.20)
• Navalny lodged a complaint against Russia at the European Court of Human Rights on March 6 to contest a money-laundering investigation he says authorities have opened to thwart his political activities. (Reuters, 03.06.20)
• In what has become an annual Russian tradition, thousands rallied across the country on Saturday to march for Boris Nemtsov, a key opposition figure shot and killed five years ago this month on a Moscow bridge just steps from the Kremlin. (The Moscow Times, 02.29.20, Wall Street Journal)
• Russia has identified six new cases of coronavirus, including 5 in Moscow, Interfax reported on March 6. That took the total number of confirmed cases to 13, a sharp rise. All the new cases were people travelling from Italy, the report said. (Reuters, 03.06.20)
• False rumors about the coronavirus circulating in Russia are being directed from abroad, Putin claimed March 4. He told ministers the FSB had reported to him that false information was being planted to create panic, while in reality the situation is not critical. Russia has banned the export of masks, respirators and hazmat suits to ensure access to the items for medics treating coronavirus patients and the public, under a decree published March 4. (AFP, 03.04.20, AFP, 03.04.20)
• Russia is seeking to persuade more people to live in its energy-rich Arctic regions as part of a 15-year strategy plan signed by Putin. The Kremlin plan, titled “Foundations of State Policy in the Arctic to 2035,” promises payouts to people relocating to the area and infrastructure development in the environmentally vulnerable territory. (RFE/RL, 03.06.20)
• Russia's communications regulator said on March 3 documents have been submitted to court which accuse the BBC World News channel of violating broadcasting requirements within Russia. (Reuters, 03.03.20)
• A Moscow court ruled on March 3 that the city's facial recognition system does not violate the privacy of its citizens— a blow to activists who had hoped to ban the technology's use. (Reuters, 03.04.20)
• Russian tech giant Yandex’s taxi service shares passengers’ ride history with law enforcement authorities, according to the testimony of an ex-policeman on trial for wrongfully detaining an investigative journalist. (The Moscow Times, 03.04.20)
• Two-thirds of Russians, 68 percent, would not be happy to have a woman as president, the state-funded VTsIOM polling agency said March 6 ahead of International Women’s Day on March 8, up from 61 percent in 2016. (The Moscow Times, 03.06.20)
• Winter has been unusually mild in much of Russia this season and the number of deaths from alcohol consumption declined. An alcohol policy group says the two developments are connected. The National Center for Alcohol Policy Development said that accidental deaths from alcohol poisoning in Russia were down 37 percent in January compared to a year ago. (AP, 03.05.20)
• Russia's answer to Disneyland, the $1.5 billion Dream Island, opened on Feb. 29. (New York Times, 02.29.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• No significant developments.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The trial of an unnamed retired Austrian army colonel accused of spying for Russia for decades opened on March 2 and was ordered to be held behind closed doors on national security grounds. (Reuters, 03.02.20)
• A Moscow court has ordered a lower court to review the four-year prison sentence of activist Konstantin Kotov, who was convicted of “multiple breaches” of Russia’s protest law. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.20)

 

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has ordered his government to revive Russia’s ties with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in what looks like a longshot bid to reopen links with Western institutions severed after the Ukraine crisis began in 2014. (Bloomberg, 03.03.20)
• Istanbul police on March 1 released the editor-in-chief of the Turkish edition of Sputnik, the Russian news website said, as tensions escalated between Ankara and Moscow. Sputnik Turkey's editor-in-chief Mahir Boztepe was detained and taken to the Istanbul police headquarters but released a couple of hours later, the website said. (AFP, 03.01.20)
• Putin has said Russia does not plan to go to war with anyone, but wants to dissuade other countries from engaging in conflict with Moscow. (Reuters, 03.02.20)
• Serbia will continue to source weapons from “friendly states” despite a looming threat of U.S. sanctions in the event of further such deliveries from Russia, the Serbian defense minister said March 6. (AP, 03.06.20)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made an official visit to Finland, where he was expected to discuss the new coronavirus outbreak and Syrian conflict with his counterpart and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto. (RFE/RL, 03.03.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• No significant developments.

Ukraine:

• Ukraine said on March 1 it had held talks with the Kremlin on swapping all remaining prisoners from the conflict in east Ukraine, and the next exchange might take place later in March. (Reuters, 03.01.20)
• The U.S. Defense Department has signed a new contract for the production of Javelin anti-tank missile systems for partner countries, including Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.03.20)
• One Ukrainian soldier was killed and four were wounded during an artillery attack on March 3 in the eastern part of the country, Ukraine’s military reported. (RFE/RL, 03.04.20)
• Ukraine's parliament voted in favor of appointing the president's choice for a new prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, after overwhelmingly accepting the resignation of his predecessor, Oleksiy Honcharuk. The Ukrainian parliament also passed a no-confidence vote in Prosecutor-General Ruslan Ryaboshapka, the latest move in a government reshuffle. (RFE/RL, 03.04.20, RFE/RL, 03.05.20)
• The U.S. has called on Russia to hand over suspects in the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. "It is long past time for Russia to comply, to reveal what it knows and to turn over those individuals who have been indicated in these cases," U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Christopher Robinson said. (RFE/RL, 03.02.20)
• An elite Dutch military unit was on hair-trigger alert to deploy to separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine to secure the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash site until a last-minute stand-down order in 2014, the Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf reported March 3. (The Moscow Times, 03.03.20)
• Ukraine's Culture Ministry has unveiled a new bilingual television channel that has started broadcasting in Russia-occupied Crimea and parts of the easternmost Donetsk and Luhansk regions. (RFE/RL, 03.03.20)
• A Russian-controlled court in Ukraine’s Crimea has sentenced a Jehovah's Witness to 6 years in prison for being a member of an extremist group. (RFE/RL, 03.05.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus began holding joint military drills with 28 British Marines at a training ground in the north of the country this week at a time when relations with its traditional ally Russia are under strain. (Reuters, 03.03.20)
• In her annual state of the nation address, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili has said Moscow's policies will not divert her country from its path toward the European Union and NATO. (RFE/RL, 03.04.20)
• Former Kygryz lawmaker Kanybek Osmonaliev, one of the organizers of a March 2 mass rally in Bishkek that turned violent, has been detained by the State Committee for National Security on suspicion of attempting to seize power. Police and protesters clashed at a rally by supporters of jailed Kyrgyz politician Sadyr Japarov as they demanded his release. Hundreds of people gathered in Bishkek's Ala-Too square, where they were also demanding that the government resign and calling for constitutional amendments. (RFE/RL, 03.02.20)
• A date has been set for the trial of the former Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev and his 13 co-defendants over deadly clashes with security forces at Atambaev's compound last year in a Bishkek suburb. The trial will start on March 23. (RFE/RL, 03.06.20)
• Tajikistan's election authorities say President Emomali Rahmon's ruling party, as expected, has won March 1 parliamentary elections and is set to retain control over parliament with its pro-presidential allies. (RFE/RL, 03.02.20)
• Latvia said March 2 a citizen thought to be working for Russia has been arrested for trying to recruit a secret service officer to spy for Moscow. (AFP, 03.02.20)
• Kazakhstan's Interior Minister says about 80 people were briefly detained on March 1 during unsanctioned rallies in several cities over the mysterious death of a civil rights activist while in police custody. (RFE/RL, 03.02.20)
• Kazakh court has granted an early release to former state nuclear company chief executive Mukhtar Dzhakishev, whose conviction on corruption charges in 2010 was criticized by many as politically motivated. (RFE/RL, 03.03.20)
• Speaking during a government meeting about coronavirus prevention on March 2, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said his country will extend the closure of its border with neighboring Iran and also suspend its visa-free regime for Iranian citizens within the next five days. (RFE/RL, 03.03.20)
• Former Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian has been charged with embezzling more than $2 million worth of state funds during his tenure. (RFE/RL, 03.04.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.