Russia in Review, Jan. 17-24, 2020
This Week’s Highlights
- A U.S. envoy said on Jan. 23 that American forces “intercepted” an unidentified Russian major general in northern Syria during deconfliction operations, according to multiple media reports. His remarks follow news of U.S. troops and their allies blocking Russian soldiers’ attempts to reach the Rumeylan oil field in Syria’s Hasakah on Jan. 16 and Jan. 18.
- The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved its Doomsday Clock the closest it’s ever been to “apocalypse,” citing lack of “U.S.-Russia cooperation on arms control and disarmament” among the factors in doing so. Meanwhile, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang has said “China has no intention to participate in the so-called China-U.S.-Russia trilateral arms control negotiations,” according to the AFP.
- Every year Florida alone welcomes hundreds of pregnant Russian women who travel to the U.S. from Russia to give birth, the Novaya Gazeta newspaper reports. This “birth tourism” will soon be curtailed, however, as the Trump administration plans to make it harder for pregnant women to travel to the U.S. to secure American citizenship for their babies, according to the Financial Times and others.
- Russian lawmakers on Jan. 23 unanimously approved a preliminary constitutional reform bill put forward by President Vladimir Putin, which would weaken the presidency somewhat, while giving more power to parliament and to the State Council. Meanwhile, Russia’s new prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, has all but completed forming his Cabinet.
- According to MSCI indices, Russia had the best performing equity market in the world last year, up by more than 50 percent, the Financial Times reports. Russia’s RTS Index rose more than 40 percent last year, making it the second best-performing among more than 90 major markets tracked by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the Central Bank registered a record influx of non-residents into Russia’s public debt market in 2019, according to RBC.
- Ukraine’s population fell lower than Poland’s for the first time, BNE Intellinews reports, dropping by some 5 million people to 37.3 million since the last census in 2000. Poland’s population was 38 million in 2018, according to Eurostat.
- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo plans to visit Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan between Jan. 30 and Feb. 3. He would be the highest-level U.S. official to visit Belarus since diplomatic relations became frayed more than a decade ago, RFE/RL reports.
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda
Nuclear security and safety:
Which of the following global threats, which humankind may face in the 21st century, are the most dangerous? (Multiple answers allowed.) |
% |
|
48 |
|
42 |
|
37 |
|
34 |
|
31 |
|
25 |
Which of the following environmental problems pose the most serious challenge to Russia as a whole? (Multiple answers allowed.) |
% |
|
26 |
|
17 |
|
11 |
- A Pacific Northwest National Laboratory system to help keep radioactive materials used by industry out of the hands of terrorists should soon be available commercially. The system, developed at the U.S. Department of Energy national laboratory in Richland, combines radio frequency tags, global positioning systems, radiation detection and software to keep track of radioactive materials. It also can detect tampering and issue alerts. (Tri-City Herald, 01.21.20)
North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:
- Russia said on Jan. 23 it had missed a U.N. deadline to repatriate North Korean workers due to what it called objective difficulties, but said it was scrupulously complying with U.N. sanctions on Pyongyang. (Reuters, 01.23.20)
- North Korea imported more than $42 million in goods from Russia in January-November 2019. That’s 20 percent higher than the $32 million in goods North Korea imported from Russia in 2018. (The Moscow Times, 01.24.20)
Iran and its nuclear program:
- Iran confirmed in a report released Jan. 21 that two Russian-made antiaircraft missiles hit a Ukrainian airliner that was shot down on Jan. 8, killing 176. The report did not immediately say the Russian-made Tor M-1 missiles caused the crash. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry urged Iran to return the black-box flight recorders. (The Washington Post, 01.21.20, RFE/RL, 01.20.20)
- The chairman of Russia's State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, is scheduled to travel to Tehran on Jan. 27 to hold talks with Parliament speaker Ali Larijani and other senior Iranian officials. (MNA, 01.24.20)
New Cold War/saber rattling:
- “Mission number one is compete with Russia and China,” said U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper. (Washington Examiner, 01.24.20)
- U.S. Air Force 55th Rescue Squadron of the Air Combat Command trained with two Russian Mi-24 attack helicopters at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base outside Tucson, Arizona. “This training lets us see the capabilities of other aircraft against our own tactics and procedures,” Capt. Kurt Wallin said. (Aviationist, 01.24.20)
- Two Russians who identified themselves as plumbers despite carrying diplomatic passports were checked in Switzerland on suspicion of espionage ahead of the World Economic Forum. The Swiss Federal Intelligence Service concluded in a 2018 report that one in four Russian diplomats based in Switzerland was a spy. (Financial Times, 01.21.20, The Moscow Times, 01.21.20)
- Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russians with the attempted murder of arms trader Emilian Gebrev and two other Bulgarians whose poisoning is being investigated by Sofia for possible links with the 2018 nerve-agent attack on ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal. The prosecutors did not name the three Russians. (Reuters, 01.23.20)
- Two Russian diplomats accused of spying by Bulgarian prosecutors will be declared persona non grata and expelled from the country, Bulgaria's foreign minister said Jan. 24.. (AP, 01.24.20, Al Jazeera, 01.24.20)
NATO-Russia relations:
- Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said: "We are criticized for having relatively better relations with Russia as a neighbor, but our Western friends are not agreeing to invite Georgia because they don’t want to provoke Russia. But Georgia needs us and we need an ally like Georgia. So we need enlargement and Georgia should be made a member” of NATO. (Reuters, 01.23.20)
Missile defense:
- Senior Russian air defense commander Sergei Grabchuk told Krasnaya Zvezda that the interceptors of the Russian Airspace Forces’ A-135 system, which is designed to defend the Moscow area from ballistic missile attacks, fly at speeds of more than 3 kilometers per second and that interception can take less than a minute. Grabchuk commands the 9th division of the 1st Air Defense and Missile Defense force, which operates the A-135. Russia’s Almaz-Antei is currently modernizing the nuclear-tipped 53T6 interceptor so that it can fly at speeds of up to 4 kilometers per second, intercept targets at altitudes above 50 kilometers and is more precise, allowing it to be armed with a conventional rather than nuclear warheads, according to Gazeta.ru. (Russia Matters, 01.22.20)
Nuclear arms control:
- The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved its Doomsday Clock to 100 seconds to midnight—the closest it's ever been to an “apocalypse.” One of the reasons, according to BAS, is that “U.S.-Russia cooperation on arms control and disarmament is all but nonexistent.” (Fox News, 01.23.20, BAS, 01.23.20)
- Democratic presidential Candidate Tulsi Gabbard wrote on Twitter: “#DoomsdayClock My personal commitment to you is that on the first day of my presidency, I will contact the leaders of China and Russia to set up a summit to end the new cold war and nuclear arms race, which will inevitably result in a nuclear holocaust.” (Russia Matters, 01.23.20)
- The United States has held two rounds of talks with Russia aimed at reducing misunderstandings around critical security issues since the collapse of the INF Treaty. Washington has hinted that Beijing should also join the discussions. But Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said “China has no intention to participate in the so-called China-U.S.-Russia trilateral arms control negotiations.” (AFP, 01.22.20)
Counterterrorism:
- No significant developments.
Conflict in Syria:
- U.S. forces intercepted an unidentified Russian major general in northern Syria during deconfliction operations, the U.S. State Department’s special envoy James Jeffrey said Jan. 23. The officer “was driving towards the town of Manbij,” Jeffrey said. His remarks follow news of U.S. troops “blocking” a Russian military patrol from accessing an oil field in northeastern Syria’s province of Hasakah on Jan. 18. U.S. soldiers reportedly blocked the patrol en route to the Rumeylan oil field and asked the Russian soldiers to return to the Amuda district. On Jan. 16, Russian soldiers were also reportedly prevented from passing through the city of Qamishli en route to the same field. (The Moscow Times, 01.24.20, Hurriyet, 01.19.20, Interfax, 01.16.20)
- The Russian and Syrian armed forces conducted a joint exercise at the Tartus port that focused on ways to protect facilities of international maritime economic activity. More than 2,000 servicemen and seven surface ships and motorboats took part. (Interfax, 01.21.20)
- Air defense systems of Russia's Hmeimim airbase in Syria have downed three drones flying toward the base from the northeast, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Jan. 18. (Interfax, 01.20.20)
- Two little-known Russian companies, Mercury and Velada, that signed oil and gas deals with Syria last year have links to Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is believed to be running the private military contractor known as Wagner Group and often referred to as “Putin’s chef,” Novaya Gazeta newspaper has reported. (The Moscow Times, 01.20.19)
- Syrian state media said militants launched a major attack on government forces in Idlib on Jan. 23 that Russia's Defense Ministry said killed up to 40 Syrian soldiers. (Reuters, 01.23.20)
Cyber security:
- Russian national Alexander Vinnik, wanted by the United States for a massive bitcoin-theft scheme, has been extradited from Greece to France, the latest development in a multinational legal fight that focused attention on cryptocurrency money laundering. (RFE/RL, 01.24.20)
- A once-secret U.S. military cyber operation launched during the last year of the Obama administration to disrupt Islamic State's online presence underwent a delayed rollout due to interagency disagreements about the clandestine mission. A Cyber Command spokesman declined to comment whether a third-party adversary, such as Russia or Syria, may have had visibility into U.S. cyber operations against Islamic State. (Wall Street Journal, 01.21.20)
- Russia’s biggest search engine, Yandex, is not part of a London-based Internet Watch Foundation coalition that Google and Bing use to limit searches for child sexual-exploitation imagery because of the Kremlin’s policies against cooperating with “undesirable” foreign organizations, Fortune magazine reported. (The Moscow Times, 01.20.19)
Elections interference:
- U.S. Democrats’ head impeachment manager, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Cal.), suggested that Russians could attack the U.S. and insisted that removing President Donald Trump from office was necessary because the integrity of the 2020 election could not be "assured." (Fox News, 01.23.20)
- The Justice Department secretly acknowledged last month that it had “insufficient predication” to continue monitoring former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page during the FBI's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to records made public Jan. 23—a notable admission likely to fuel continued criticism over how the bureau handled the high-profile case. (The Washington Post, 01.24.20)
Energy exports from CIS:
- No significant developments.
U.S.-Russian economic ties:
- No significant developments.
U.S.-Russian relations in general:
- “We don't talk about particular sanctions, but everyone can fully expect that the United States is not done," Mike Pompeo said at a brief news conference when asked about the U.S. response to Russia's involvement in Venezuela. (Wall Street Journal, 01.20.20)
- U.S. billionaire and liberal activist George Soros has pledged $1 billion to help create a new university network to aid civil society in a world increasingly ruled by what he says are "would-be and actual dictators.” “The greatest powers, the United States, China and Russia, remained in the hands of real or potential dictators,” Soros wrote in an op-ed. (RFE/RL, 01.24.20, Project Syndicate, 01.23.20)
- The American founder of U.S.-based militant neo-Nazi group The Base is directing the organization from Russia, a BBC investigation has found. Rinaldo Nazzaro, 46, who uses the aliases "Norman Spear" and "Roman Wolf," left New York for St Petersburg less than two years ago with his Russian wife and their children. The Base is a major counterterrorism focus for the FBI; seven alleged members were charged this month with various offenses, including conspiracy to commit murder. One of those arrested last week in connection with The Base was William Bilbrough IV, who is accused of plotting an attack at a gun-rights rally in Virginia. (BBC, 01.24.20, The Washington Post, 01.23.20, New York Times, 01.22.20, The Guardian, 01.23.20)
- RFE/RL's Russian Service has filed documents with Russia's Federal Tax Service to register as a "foreign agent" to comply with a law that critics say the Kremlin uses to muzzle dissent. (RFE/RL, 01.24.20)
- The Trump administration has published new rules to crack down on “birth tourism” by making it harder for pregnant women to travel to the U.S. to secure American citizenship for their babies by giving birth in the country. Hundreds of Russian women travel to Florida to give birth annually, according to Novaya Gazeta. (Financial Times, 01.23.20, Russia Matters 01.23.20)
II. Russia’s domestic policies
Domestic politics, economy and energy:
Constitutional amendments
- Russian lawmakers on Jan. 23 unanimously approved in its first reading a sweeping constitutional reform bill put forward by President Vladimir Putin, which would weaken the presidency somewhat, while giving more power to parliament and to the State Council. The vote was followed by a standing ovation. (RFE/RL, Wall Street Journal. 01.23.20). The bill calls for:
- Limiting the president to only two terms in total.
- On Jan. 18 Putin said he had no intention of remaining president indefinitely. “It’d be very worrying, in my opinion, to return to the situation in the mid-1980s, when the heads of state remained in power until their dying day, one after the other, and left power without ensuring the necessary conditions to transform it,” he said. (Financial Times, 01.20.20)
- On Jan. 22 Putin rejected the idea of instituting a position akin to that of “minister mentor” held by the late Lee Kuan Yew. Putin said: “Once any institution emerges above president, it will mean nothing else but diarchy. It is an absolutely disastrous situation for a country like Russia. … Our country, obviously, has to be a strong presidential republic.” (Mothership.sg, 01.23.20)
- Transforming the State Council from an advisory body to a body of the executive branch that would shape domestic and foreign policy, as well as social and economic development,t and that will have the power to “co-ordinate … the organs of state power,” according to the bill. The council would also have the power to “set the main direction of domestic and foreign policy of the Russian Federation and the priority areas of socioeconomic development.”
- “The State Council becomes something like a collective presidency,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council. (Bloomberg, 01.21.20)
- Giving the lower house of parliament greater say over formation of the government. The president’s candidate for prime minister would need formal confirmation by the Duma, instead of the current process of giving consent. The premier’s Cabinet picks, currently not subject to legislative approval, would require parliamentary confirmation and couldn’t be rejected by the president.
- The upper house of parliament would be consulted on Putin’s picks for defense minister and other security posts. The draft also calls for adding new members to the upper house to be appointed directly by the president.
- Integrating the obligation to index pensions and other government benefits for inflation into the constitution.
- Giving the Russian constitution a clear priority over international law. (RFE/RL, 01.20.20, Financial Times, 01.21.20, Bloomberg, 01.21.20)
- Limiting the president to only two terms in total.
Government reshuffle
- Igor Trutnev, Tatyana Golikova and Yuri Borisov have retained the posts of deputy premiers in the new Russian government. The highest-profile casualties of the Cabinet reshuffle include: deputy PM Maxim Akimov, who led Russia’s stalled plans to create a “digital economy”; deputy PM Dmitry Kozak, who had been in charge of much of Russia’s Ukraine policy; deputy PM Alexei Gordeev, who has been overseeing the agricultural sector; and deputy PM Vitaly Mutko, who ran Russia’s sports ministry. Konstantin Chuychenko has also lost his post of deputy premier but was then appointed justice minister. The new deputy prime ministers include:
- Vladimir Putin’s aide Andrei Belousov (will be the sole first deputy prime minister), replacing Finance Minister Antonov Siluanov, who has, however, retained his ministerial post;
- Marat Khusnullin, previously deputy mayor of Moscow;
- Dmitry Grigorenko, previously deputy head of the Federal Tax Service;
- Alexei Overchuk, previously deputy head of the Federal Tax Service;
- Dmitry Chernyshenko, previously CEO of Gazprom-Media Holding;
- Victoria Abramchenko, previously deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development.
- Vladimir Kolokoltsev has retained the post of minister of the interior; Sergei Lavrov remains the foreign minister; Yevgeny Zinichev has retained the post of minister for emergencies; Sergei Shoigu is still defense minister; Siluanov, Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Agriculture Minister Dmitri Patrushev are also keeping their posts. The new ministers and heads of agencies in Mikhail Mishustin’s government will include:
- Igor Krasnov, formerly deputy chairman of the Investigative Committee, will replace Yuri Chaika as prosecutor general;
- Chuychenko, as stated above, has lost the post of deputy PM but will become the new minister of justice, replacing Alexander Konovalov;
- Deputy head of the tax service Daniil Yegorov will now head the service;
- Perm Governor Maxim Reshetnikov will replace Maxim Oreshkin as the new economy minister, while Oreshkin has become Putin’s advisor;
- Deputy Culture Minister Olga Lyubimova will replace Vladimir Medinsky as minister;
- Head of the Federal Service for Healthcare Oversight Mikhail Murashko will replace Veronika Skvortsova as health minister;
- Vice president of Rostelecom Maksut Shadayev will become minister of telecommunications;
- Oleg Matytsin, head of the International University Sports Federation, will become minister of sport (Matytsin was convicted for abuse of office as head of a university a decade ago);
- A lawmaker from the Tyumen Regional Duma, Valery Falkov, will become the minister of science and higher education;
- Director of the regional development department of the Education Ministry, Sergei Kravtsov, will replace Olga Vasilyeva as head of the Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science;
- Deputy Finance Minister Anton Kotyakov will replace Maxim Topilin as the new Minister of Labor and Social Protection. (TASS, 01.20.20, RBC, 01.21.20, Financial Times, 01.21.20, RFE/RL, 01.21.20, RFE/RL, 01.20.20, The Moscow Times. 01.23.20)
Other developments related to domestic politics, economy and energy:
- According to MSCI indices, Russia had the best performing equity market in the world last year. The MSCI Russia index (US$) rose 50.1 percent in 2019 and has risen another 4 percent in the first half of January. (Financial Times, 01.17.20.)
- The RTS Index rose more than 40 percent last year, making it the second best-performing among more than 90 major markets tracked by Bloomberg. RTS has bested the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points over the past one-year period. That has continued in 2020, as the RTS has delivered around 5 percent gains, doubling the S&P 500's 2.4 percent rise. (Axios, 01.22.20, Financial Times, 01.23.20)
- The MOEX Russia Index, the main ruble-denominated benchmark, is up more than 150 percent since its early 2014 trough. (Financial Times, 01.23.20)
- The number of private investors on the Moscow exchange doubled last year to 3.85 million, while total retail inflows went up by 47 billion rubles ($760 million), according to the exchange. (Financial Times, 01.23.20)
- Russian 10-year government debt has netted 15 percent total return over the last year, according to FactSet data. (Axios, 01.22.20, Financial Times, 01.23.20)
- The Central Bank registered a record influx of non-residents into Russia’s public debt market in 2019. The non-residents invested $22.2 billion into federal government bonds and Eurobonds, according to the bank. The previous record inflow of non-residents to the Russian public debt was registered in 2012: Then it amounted to $ 17.1 billion. (RBC, 01.19.20)
- Overseas investors’ stakes in Russian companies totaled $80 billion at the end of last year, the largest sum since sanctions were introduced in 2014. Foreign inflows totaled $4.6 billion in the 12 months to September 2019, according to official data tallied by Bloomberg. (Financial Times, 01.23.20)
- Russia now has a 3 percent budget surplus and foreign exchange reserves larger than its foreign debt. Russia’s gross international reserves topped $557.5 billion on Jan. 10, according to the Central Bank of Russia, surpassing the previous all-time high recorded in 2008. (Financial Times, 01.17.20, BNE Intellinews, 01.22.20)
- Russia’s industrial output grew 2.1 percent on the year and 8.9 percent on the month in December after rising 0.3 percent on the year in November. In 2019, industrial output rose 2.4 percent on the year after rising 2.9 percent on 2018. (BNE Intellinews, 01.24.20)
- The first part of a new terminal at Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport has opened with an operational capacity able to provide services for as many as 20 million travelers annually. According to officials, an equivalent of almost $520 million was spent to build the terminal with parking for 2,500 vehicles. (RFE/RL, 01.17.20)
- Siberian Chemical Combine has completed acceptance tests of its ETVS-22, ETVS-23 and ETVS-24 experimental fuel assemblies with mixed uranium-plutonium (nitride) nuclear fuel for fast neutron reactors. The work is part of Rosatom’s Proryv, or “breakthrough,” project to enable a closed nuclear fuel cycle. (WNN, 01.22.20)
- In a new report, Russia’s Audit Chamber said that climate change could knock up to 3 percent per year off Russia’s GDP by 2030, and that without solving its myriad environmental and ecological problems, Russia will fall short of its ambitious targets to increase life expectancy, improve demographics and boost the economy. (The Moscow Times, 01.14.20)
- Russia was ranked 137th in Transparency International’s 2019 Corruption Perceptions Index, while Ukraine came in 126th with a score of 30, compared to 32 the previous year. China and India were also ranked below average, tied at 80th place with a score of 41. (Calcalistech.com, 01.23.20, RFE/RL, 01.23.20)
- Ex-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Jan. 19 that he will continue to chair the ruling United Russia party. (RFE/RL, 01.19.20)
- Sixty-three percent of Russians believe that their country imprisons people for political reasons, an all-time high since the independent Levada Center polling agency first conducted the survey in 2004. (The Moscow Times, 01.20.29)
Defense and aerospace:
- No significant developments.
Security, law-enforcement and justice:
- No significant developments.
III. Russia’s relations with other countries
Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:
- Vladimir Putin on Jan. 23 proposed holding a summit with the leaders of Russia, China, the United States, France and Britain in 2020 to discuss the conflict in Libya and other global problems. On Jan. 21 the U.N. Security Council called on Libya's warring sides to quickly reach a cease-fire. At a Jan. 18 meeting in Berlin leaders of Russia, Turkey, Germany and a dozen other international powers with competing interests in oil-rich Libya called for a cease-fire and an arms embargo. (Reuters, 01.23.20, New York Times, 01.20.20, AP, 01.22.20)
- As dignitaries from scores of nations met in Jerusalem to remember the liberation of Auschwitz 75 years ago and express their resolve to combat anti-Semitism, Vladimir Putin called for vigilance ''not to miss when the first sprouts of hatred, of chauvinism, of xenophobia and anti-Semitism start to rear their ugly head.” He also unveiled a monument in Jerusalem's central Sacher Park to the victims of the siege of Leningrad and met with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority. Putin hinted that Russia would soon release Israeli-American woman Naama Issachar who was given a long prison sentence last year after several grams of marijuana were found in her bags in Moscow. (New York Times, 01.24.20)
- Poland’s president has accused Russia’s Vladimir Putin of spreading a “historical lie” about his country. Andrzej Duda’s salvo follows claims about Poland’s past by the Russian president, including the accusation that Poland, which was invaded by Germany and then by the USSR in September 1939, was partly to blame for the outbreak of World War II. (Financial Times, 01.22.20)
- Vladimir Putin told Russia’s WWII veterans that Russia plans to open an archival center devoted to the history of World War II. "We will put a sock in the rotten mouths that some people abroad keep opening to achieve immediate political goals," he said. "We will shut them up with true, basic information." (RFE/RL, 01.18.20)
- British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told Vladimir Putin in their first official meeting that Moscow must not repeat a chemical attack on Britain like the 2018 nerve agent attack in Salisbury against former Russian spy Sergei Skripal. (RFE/RL, 01.19.20)
- Serbia’s president has said he is “fed up of being lectured” by European leaders about close ties with Russia and China, insisting Belgrade remains committed to EU membership despite unprecedented delays to accession. (Euronews, 01.21.20)
- A judge in London has ordered the former owners of Russia’s Trust Bank and their wives to pay the country’s central bank $900 million to compensate for their role in an offshore scheme that led to its collapse. (Financial Times, 01.23.20)
China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?
- Russia and China on Jan 20 signed the final acceptance protocol for the nuclear island of unit three of the Tianwan nuclear power plant, which transfers ownership to the Chinese customer for permanent operation. The Tianwan plant consists of four VVER-1000 units. (WNN, 01.20.20)
- Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Brazil and Russia have emerged as new growth drivers for China's imports, with import from these countries increasing 18.8 percent, 8.1 percent, 9.2 percent, 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively in 2019. (Xinhua, 01.21.20)
- Russia’s tourism watchdog said on Jan. 24 that it was recommending that travel operators stop sales of packages to China due to the new coronavirus. Flights to Moscow from the Chinese city of Wuhan have been suspended over fears about the spread of the virus. (Reuters, 01.24.20)
- Columnist Gideon Rachman wrote: “Mr. Xi would not resent comparisons to Stalin—on the contrary, he has urged his followers to continue to learn from the teachings of Stalin and Lenin, as well as Mao.” (Financial Times, 01.20.20, Reuters, 01.24.20)
Ukraine:
- Ukraine’s population fell behind that of Poland for the first time. An electronic census revealed the number of citizens has dropped by some 5 million people to 37.3 million since the last census in 2000. Poland’s population was 38 million in 2018, according to Eurostat. The new Ukrainian number does not include Crimea or the Donbas region, which would add roughly another million people if they were returned to Ukraine. (BNE Intellinews, 01.23.20)
- Ukraine has sold €1.25 billion of new debt at record-low borrowing costs. The oversubscribed sale of new 10-year euro-denominated bonds was priced at a yield of 4.375 percent. Timothy Ash, an analyst at BlueBay Asset Management, said: “A year or so ago, [Ukraine] would not have been able to come at much less than 10 percent.” (Financial Times, 01.23.20)
- Ukraine in January-November 2019 bought nuclear fuel for a total amount of $356.1 million. According to the State Statistics Service, over the 11 months Ukrainian nuclear power plants bought Russian-made fuel worth $200.1 million and fuel from Sweden for $156 million. (Interfax, 01.21.20)
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declined Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk’s offer to resign after an audio recording of him criticizing the president’s “primitive” grasp of economics went viral. (NTD, 01.18.20)
- One Ukrainian soldier was killed and 10 were wounded over a span of 24 hours on Jan. 18 in the country’s eastern Donbas war zone, the Ukrainian military reported. (RFE/RL, 01.19.20)
- Ukraine has asked the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to expand its monitoring mission in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 01.20.20)
- There were 137 recorded incidents of confrontation and violence committed by ultraright groups in Ukraine over a one-year period from Oct. 14, 2018, a monitoring report by a Ukrainian public advocacy organization stated. (RFE/RL, 01.21.20)
- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo plans to visit Kyiv on Jan. 30 and Minsk on Feb. 1. Pompeo would be the highest-level U.S. official to have visited Belarus since diplomatic relations with the United States were frayed more than a decade ago. He will also visit Kazakhstan on Feb. 1-2 and Uzbekistan on Feb. 2-3. (RFE/RL, 01.22.20, Interfax, 01.22.20)
- A recording of Trump calling for the firing of former Ukraine Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch during a private meeting that included indicted Rudy Giuliani associates was made public Jan. 24. "Get rid of her!" Trump appeared to say in the recording. "Get her out tomorrow. I don't care. Get her out tomorrow. Take her out. Okay? Do it." Trump said. (USA Today, ABC News, 01.24.20)
- Mike Pompeo has said the State Department will investigate whether former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch was in any danger while she was in Ukraine. Pompeo made the statement after documents were released indicating that Yovanovitch, who was recalled in May 2019, may have been under surveillance in Kyiv. The documents indicated that Lev Parnas, a Ukraine-born U.S. citizen who has been indicted on campaign-finance charges, helped Rudy Giuliani try to find incriminating material against former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and his son. (RFE/RL, 01.17.20)
- Parnas adopted a tone of hearty bonhomie when exchanging messages with Ukraine's political elite, calling them "my brother" or "my friend," or telling them "I missed you" or "I embrace you." (The Washington Post, 01.20.20)
- Lawyers for Parnas asked on Jan. 19 that Attorney General William P. Barr disqualify himself from overseeing his criminal case because he has too many conflicts of interest. (New York Times, 01.21.20)
Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:
- The U.S. administration is considering adding Belarus and Kyrgyzstan to its travel-ban list, along with four African countries and Burma, according to media reports. President Donald Trump said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that he was considering adding countries to the travel ban, but declined to say which ones. Kyrgyzstan's top diplomat says his country's possible addition to the U.S. travel ban list might be linked to the Central Asian nation's delay in fully switching to a biometric passport system. (RFE/RL, 01.22.20, RFE/RL, 01.23.20)
- President Alexander Lukashenka of Belarus said on Jan. 21 that Russia is blocking deliveries of Kazakh oil amid a tariff dispute with Moscow. He then said on Jan. 24 that Moscow is pressuring his country to merge with Russia and vowed not to let it happen. (RFE/RL, 01.21.20, AP, 01.24.20)
- Lukashenka has decided to appoint Maj. Gen. Viktar Khrenin, commander of the Western troops, to the post of defense minister. The Belarusian president also said that he appointed Maj. Gen. Alexander Valfovich as chief of the general staff of the armed forces. (RFE/RL, 01.20.20)
- Armenia's parliament has approved the final reading of a law aimed at tackling the organized crime bosses known as "thieves in law" and other organized-crime-related activities such as racketeering. (RFE/RL, 01.22.20)
- Tajikistan's parliament has approved an agreement to build five new Russian schools in the next three years, with funds largely provided by the Russian government. (RFE/RL, 01.18.20)
IV. Quoteworthy:
- From Alan Dershowitz’s 2018 book: “Assume Putin decides to ‘retake’ Alaska, the way he ‘retook’ Crimea. Assume further that [President Trump] allows him to do it… That would be terrible, but [not] impeachable.” (Reddit, 01.19.20, New York Times, 01.22.20)
- When listing why he thinks “Bernie Sanders would upend America's global role” Sean Sullivan of The Washington Post alerts his readers that Sanders “touted the value of partnering with a sister city in Russia when he was mayor of Burlington, Vt.” (The Washington Post, 01.11.20)
- In America, “politicians are an extension of the electorate, and the electorate has already concluded that Ukraine is a corrupt country,” said Oleksandr Danylyuk, who resigned as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s national security adviser in September. (New York Times, 01.19.20)
Photo credit: International Mine Action Center in Syria, December 2016, shared under a CC BY 4.0 license.