This Week’s Highlights

• G-20 leaders said they would collectively spend more than $5 trillion trying to insulate the global economy from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and help speed a recovery, but didn't put forward a specific plan to address the coronavirus challenge, according to the Wall Street Journal. During the online summit March 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for sanctions relief during the pandemic, telling G20 leaders it was a matter "of life and death," AFP reports.
• As of March 27, Russia’s total number of confirmed coronavirus cases was 1,036, up 196 from a day earlier. Three deaths have also been reported, according to RFE/RL. Putin delivered a national address March 25, in which he said it was “impossible to stop” the virus spreading in the country, according to the Financial Times. At a meeting with entrepreneurs on March 26, however, Putin said Russia could defeat coronavirus in less than three months if it imposed tough measures quickly, Reuters reports. Moscow mayor Sobyanin, who heads Russia’s official coronavirus response body, told Putin: "The real number of those who are sick is significantly higher" than official numbers indicate, according to The Moscow Times. There are 27.3 ventilators in Russia for every 100,000 people, while in the U.S. there are only 18.8 ventilators per 100,000 people, according to Meduza.
• Russia’s Rosatom and Ukraine’s Energoatom have introduced measures to prevent their personnel from contracting COVID-19, according to Rosatom and World Nuclear News. “At present, we have introduced additional measures at all of Russia’s nuclear power plants, including regular health check-ups of our personnel. We have arranged for as many employees as possible to work remotely,” Rosatom director Likhachev said in a statement. Ukraine’s Energoatom, meanwhile, announced the introduction of measures to protect its key workers from exposure to COVID-19. They are being housed in separate rooms within specially appointed hotels.
• Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said in an interview with Izvestia newspaper that Russian military planes now fly missions over the Baltic Sea with transponders turned on, according to Bloomberg. "I think that today's military-political situation is pushing Russia and the United States toward the need to more often communicate, including via their military agencies," he said, Interfax reports.
• Three out of four Russians think the Soviet era was the best time in their country’s history, according to a survey published by the Levada Center on March 24, The Moscow Times reports. Just 18 percent of Russian respondents said they disagree with the idea that the Soviet Union was the best time in their country’s history, Levada said. Despite this, only 28 percent of respondents said they would want to “return to the path that the Soviet Union was following.” Fifty-eight said they support Russia's “own, special way” and 10 percent said they preferred the European path of development.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• “At present, we have introduced additional measures at all of Russia’s nuclear power plants, including regular health check-ups of our personnel. We have arranged for as many employees as possible to work remotely,” Rosatom director Likhachev said in a statement. (Rosatom, 03.26.20)
• A planned exercise to practice radiation accident management on board a ship with a nuclear powerplant has taken place at the Russian Northern Fleet’s main base in Severomorsk. In the exercise scenario, an emergency situation occurred during the start of the Pyotr Veliky missile cruiser’s nuclear powerplant. Radioactive contaminants were emitted. (TASS, 03.24.20)
• Ukraine’s Energoatom announced the introduction of measures to protect its key workers from exposure to COVID-19. They are being housed in separate rooms within specially appointed hotels, where all the necessary measures for disinfection and medical monitoring are being carried out. (World Nuclear News, 03.26.20)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• Russian patrol planes in early 2020 have flown a surprising number of long-range missions across Europe. Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who commanded Army forces in Europe from 2014 to 2017, told The Irish Times that Russia could be “mapping out the contours” of radar coverage around Greenland, Iceland and the U.K. (The National Interest, 03.23.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• “We are trying to find common ground,” Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said in an interview in reference to the U.S. and its NATO allies. “For example, we took the initiative to end military drills in the immediate vicinity of the Russian border with western states.” Russian military planes now fly missions over the Baltic Sea with transponders turned on, he said. "I think that today's military-political situation is pushing Russia and the U.S. toward the need to more often communicate, including via their military agencies," he said. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, Russia has halted military drills near other countries’ borders as a preventive measure amid the coronavirus, including one near its Western borders. (TASS, 03.23.20, Bloomberg, 03.23.20, The Moscow Times, 03.24.20, Bloomberg, 03.23.20, Interfax, 03.23.20)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• The absence of a reaction from the U.S. to Russia's initiative to prolong New START creates legal uncertainty in the sphere of nuclear deterrence, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said. (Interfax, 03.23.20)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has taken a working trip to Syria and held negotiations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to discuss ways to ensure a stable ceasefire in Idlib and stabilize the situation in other parts of Syria. (Interfax, 03.23.20)
• Russia and Turkey were forced to cut short their second joint patrol in Syria's Idlib on March 23 due to security concerns, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The patrol is meant to cover the M4 highway which links the cities of Aleppo and Latakia. (Reuters, 03.23.20)
• On March 25, the first Russian navy cargo ship transited Turkey’s Bosporus strait en route to Syria. The ship was reported to be carrying three ambulances and a shipping container on its deck believed to contain equipment to be used to help fight the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Syria. (Al Monitor, 03.26.20)
• U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claiming that Russia is responsible for the killing of Turkish soldiers in Syria is a blatant lie and an attempt to hinder Moscow's interaction with Ankara, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (Interfax, 03.19.20)

Cyber issues:

• Russia’s state communications watchdog Roskomnadzor said it has asked Twitter and Facebook to delete “fake” stories surrounding the deadly coronavirus pandemic. (The Moscow Times, 03.26.20)

Elections interference:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said OPEC+ had lost its significance in balancing the global oil market as countries including the U.S., Brazil, Norway and Mexico raised production at its expense. He also downplayed the disagreement with Saudi Arabia that led to a dramatic fall in oil prices, and he predicted a quick rebound to $60 dollars per barrel sometime this year if U.S. shale production is knocked out. (RFE/RL, 03.20.20)
• A new OPEC+ deal to balance oil markets might be possible if other countries join in, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund said, adding that countries should also cooperate to cushion the economic fallout from coronavirus. (Reuters, 03.27.20)
  • Saudi Arabia said March 27 it was not in talks with Russia to balance oil markets despite rising pressure from Washington to stop a price rout amid the coronavirus pandemic and an attempt by Moscow to fix a rift with the de facto OPEC leader. (Reuters, 03.27.20)
• U.S. oil output, now a record high of 13 million barrels a day, could drop 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2021, analysts have calculated. “Shale thrives at $100 a barrel, survives at $50 and dies at $25,” said Jamie Webster, senior director of BCG’s Center for Energy Impact. (Financial Times, 03.25.20)
  • U.S. oil industry regulators opened a dialogue with OPEC in talks that could help foster a truce between the world's three largest oil producers and potentially resolve a Saudi-Russian price war that has devastated oil markets in recent weeks. (Wall Street Journal, 03.20.12)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• "The disinformation campaign from Russia and Iran as well as China continues," Pompeo said in reference to the pandemic. "They're talking about it coming from the U.S. Army and they're saying maybe it began in Italy, all things to deflect responsibility." (Newsweek, 03.25.20)
• Eleven members of the U.S. House of Representatives have urged the EU to impose sanctions on Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, the latest attempt by lawmakers to combat alleged election meddling by the Kremlin in the U.S. and allied countries as well as possible disinformation about the coronavirus pandemic. (Wall Street Journal, 03.25.20)
• Russian news agencies reported on March 27 that the trial of Paul Whelan, who holds U.S., British, Canadian and Irish passports, was delayed because of "restrictions imposed over the coronavirus" for two weeks. (RFE/RL, 03.27.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• As of March 27, Russia’s total number of confirmed coronavirus cases was 1,036, up 196 from a day earlier. Three deaths have also been reported. (RFE/RL, 03.27.20)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a solemn national address on March 25 that signalled a shift in his attitude toward the coronavirus. After insisting for weeks that the disease was “under control,” the Russian leader said it was “impossible to stop” the virus spreading in the country. At a televised meeting with entrepreneurs on March 26, however,  Putin said Russia could defeat coronavirus in less than three months if it imposed tough measures quickly as authorities suspended all regular and charter flights to and from the country from March 27. (Financial Times, 03.26.20, Reuters, 03.26.20)
• In his March 25 national address, Putin:
  • Announced that he postponed an April 22 vote on sweeping constitutional changes that could allow him to remain in power until 2036 because of concerns over the coronavirus outbreak. (Wall Street Journal, 03.25.20, RFE/RL, 03.25.20)
  • Called for a weeklong work holiday, ordering all nonessential businesses to close for a week beginning March 28. (RFE/RL, 03.27.20)
  • Said people working in nonessential sectors should remain at home next week and announced that their pay would be preserved. Stores, pharmacies, banks, medical institutions and transport services would remain open. (Wall Street Journal, 03.25.20, RFE/RL, 03.25.20)
  • Pledged that just “1 percent” of depositors would be affected by his decision to fund the measures through a 13 percent tax on interest earned from deposits worth more than 1 million rubles ($12,900). At the start of this year, 55.3 percent of all Russian bank deposits were worth more than 1 million rubles, according to data from the country’s Deposit Insurance Agency. (Financial Times, 03.26.20)
• Russia significantly surpasses Western countries in terms of ventilator availability. For example, on average, there are 27.3 ventilators in Russia for every 100,000 people, while in the U.S., according to official data from Johns Hopkins University, ICUs have a total of 62,000 ventilators. That makes for only 18.8 ventilators per 100,000 people. In Russian state hospitals, there are 40,000 ventilators, and hospitals are also purchasing new ones as the coronavirus pandemic escalates. (Meduza, 03.21.20)
• Russia is facing a “serious situation” as the coronavirus spreads, Moscow’s mayor told Putin on March 24 as the official number of infections neared 500. “The momentum is high and a serious situation is unfolding,” Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, who heads Russia’s official coronavirus response body, said. "The real number of those who are sick is significantly higher" than official numbers indicate, Sobyanin said. “The fact is that testing volume is very low, and no one on earth knows the real picture,” he said. (The Moscow Times, 03.24.20)
  • Anastasia Vasilieva, chairman of Doctors’ Alliance, claimed Moscow was classifying cases of the virus as pneumonia, the incidence of which increased by almost 40 percent in January compared with a year previously, government data showed. (Financial Times, 03.20.20)
• Russia’s state carrier Aeroflot is continuing to operate a limited number of flights abroad, including to and from Amsterdam, Bangkok, Beijing, Berlin, Dublin, London, Paris, New York and Tokyo, despite the Russian government’s order to ground all international flights that took effect at midnight March 27. According to an Aeroflot staffer, these flights are mainly being used to “evacuate” Russian citizens from abroad if they need to come home. (The Moscow Times, 03.27.20)
• Russia is using facial-recognition technology to track people ordered into self-isolation. The government is also developing a system using geolocation data from mobile operators to monitor individuals. Russian authorities are also cracking down on people who spread rumors or disinformation about the virus on social media, with around 50 cases a day, according to a state center set up to provide public information about COVID-19. Those who post disinformation face fines of up to $37,500. (The Washington Post, 03.25.20)
• Russia’s rich are setting up makeshift clinics in their own homes to ensure they can have better care than the masses if they get infected. And in what may have severe ramifications down the road for Russia’s battle against the coronavirus, they are buying up and hoarding the ventilators that have proven essential in saving lives in severe cases. (The Moscow Times, 03.21.20)
• More than half of Russians are worried some of them or their relatives may fall ill with the coronavirus and many are prepared to sacrifice part of their freedoms until the threat of COVID-19 is gone, according to a survey by holding company ROMIR. (TASS, 03.23.20)
• Fifty-nine percent of Russian respondents said they don’t believe the officially reported numbers on coronavirus, while 38 percent said they trust the authorities’ information, according to a Levada Center poll conducted in March. (The Moscow Times, 03.23.20)
• The Kremlin says a member of Putin's administration has been infected with the coronavirus, but the person had not been in direct contact with Putin. (RFE/RL, 03.27.20)
• Russia’s economy will contract by 1 percent in 2020, according to the latest forecast by the widely respected Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition. (bne IntelliNews, 03.23.20)
• Some 54 percent of Russians plan to take part in the national referendum on constitutional amendments, which would allow Putin to stay in power through 2036, while 27 percent have no such plans, according to Levada’s latest poll on the issue. When asked how they would vote if they do take part in the referendum, some 40-45 percent said they would support the amendments while 34-41 percent said they would vote against. (Russia Matters, 03.27.20)
• Three out of four Russians think the Soviet era was the best time in their country’s history, according to a survey published by the Levada Center on March 24. Just 18 percent of Russian respondents said they disagree with the idea that the Soviet Union was the best time in their country’s history, Levada said. Despite this, only 28 percent of respondents said they would want to “return to the path that the Soviet Union was following.”  Fifty-eight said they support Russia's “own, special way” and 10 percent said they preferred the European path of development. (The Moscow Times, 03.24.20) 
• The Committee to Protect Journalists has urged Russian authorities “to stop censoring news outlets” that report on the coronavirus outbreak in the country. (RFE/RL, 03.25.20)
• The Vedomosti business daily has been sold. The announcement of the independent newspaper’s sale to publisher Konstantin Zyatkov and businessman Alexei Golubovich was met with a backlash, with former editor-in-chief Tatiana Lysova describing the two buyers as “alien to Vedomosti’s rules and ideals.” (The Moscow Times, 03.24.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• An inspection of the level of readiness to fight the coronavirus, if the need arises, has begun in the Russian army, Shoigu said. Russia is also considering staging its annual Victory Day parade in front of empty stands on May 9. (Interfax, 03.25.20, The Moscow Times, 03.24.20)
• Russia's Pacific Fleet will receive five of eight Borei-class strategic submarines that have been laid down. (Interfax, 03.23.20)
• A Russian Su-27 fighter jet crashed off the coast of Crimea late March 25, prompting a search-and-rescue mission in the Black Sea. (The Moscow Times, 03.26.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Moscow’s police force is preparing to enforce a near-total shutdown of the Russian capital if the number of coronavirus cases rises, including a curfew and a ban on entering and exiting the city. (The Moscow Times, 03.23.20)
• Poland extradited the co-owner of a Siberian shopping mall to Russia to face bribery charges on the eve of the second anniversary of a fire at the mall that killed 60 people. On March 24, Vyacheslav Vishnevsky, who is an executive of a company that co-owns the Zimnyaya Vishnya mall in Kemerovo, was sent to a pretrial detention facility in Kaliningrad. (RFE/RL, 03.25.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The leaders of the G-20 nations said that they would collectively spend more than $5 trillion trying to insulate the global economy from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and help speed a recovery. The group didn't put forward a specific plan to address the coronavirus challenge. (Wall Street Journal, 03.26.20)
  • Putin on March 26 called for sanctions relief during the coronavirus pandemic, telling G-20 leaders it was a matter "of life and death." He did not specify which countries should be earmarked for sanctions relief, speaking instead more broadly. (AFP, 03.26.20)
  • “I am encouraging the waiving of sanctions imposed on countries to ensure access to food, essential health supplies and COVID-19 medical support. This is the time for solidarity not exclusion,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres wrote in a letter to the G-20 economic powers. (Foreign Policy, 03.24.20)
• The Russian army on March 22 began flying medical help to Italy to help it battle the coronavirus. Russia sent 600 ventilators and 100 military virologists and epidemiologists to Italy following talks between Putin and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and agreements were later reached between respective defense ministers. Around 80 percent of the coronavirus supplies that Russia has sent to Italy are “useless,” the country’s La Stampa daily claimed March 25, citing high-level political sources. (Reuters, 03.21.20, The Moscow Times, 03.26.20)
• Almost eight years on from his ouster, Russian consultants had been dispatched to plan the return of the Qaddafi regime. Yevgeny Prigozhin, an insider also known as “Putin’s chef,” reckoned Saif Al-Islam Qaddafi, the son and heir apparent of deposed dictator Col. Moammar Al Qaddafi, could be a good bet for an investment in the country, according to three people familiar with his thinking. (Bloomberg, 03.20.20)
• Russia has sold more nuclear technology abroad since Putin came to power in 1999 than the U.S., France, China, South Korea and Japan combined, according to a recent study. (New York Times, 03.21.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• The protective masks received by Russia from China (25.5 million) are the first batch of the planned large-scale deliveries, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade said. In early February, media reports said that Russia had sent to China more than 2.2 million protective medical kits weighing a total of 23 tons. (TASS, 03.23.20)
• Russia has received more than a million masks and 200,000 coronavirus testing kits as a gift from Chinese billionaire businessman Jack Ma, Russia’s Defense Ministry said March 26. Calling Ma "a real friend," the ministry said in a statement that the co-founder of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba had spoken by telephone to Shoigu and told him how touched he had been by Moscow's own help for China. (Reuters, 03.26.20)
• Ma's foundation has organized the publication and translation into Russian of guidelines for combating COVID-19 based on the experience of the clinic at the University of the Chinese city of Zhejiang. (Interfax, 03.23.20)
• Planeloads of Chinese medical equipment, masks and protective gear have been landing in Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Ukraine, Iran and Iraq, among other nations. Ma also donated test kits, masks and protective suits to each of Africa's 54 countries. (The Washington Post, 03.27.20)
  • "Moscow has found that the U.S. and the countries of Western Europe, despite their vast resources, are saddled with government inefficiency and loose social discipline," said Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, in reference to countries’ handling of the pandemics. "China, by contrast, is rising and reaching higher." (Wall Street Journal, 03.27.20)
• A 2015 report on Russia’s expansion along the Amur River by China’s Ethnic Affairs Commission accused Russia of seizing more than 386,000 square miles of “our country’s territory.” (New York Times, 03.26.20)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine's GDP will decline by 4 percent if quarantine lasts up to three months and by 9 percent if it lasts longer, Head of Dragon Capital investment company Tomas Fiala has said. (Interfax, 03.23.20)
• The global crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic has been acutely felt in eastern Ukraine, where the line of contact between government-controlled territory and regions held by Russia-backed separatist formations has become even more complicated than usual. The measures introduced by Kyiv and the separatists to control the coronavirus have exacerbated the humanitarian situation near the contact line in the Donbass, but have had little effect on the military situation. (RFE/RL, 03.25.20)
• Ukraine's government has widened its state of emergency decree to encompass the entire country due to the spread of the coronavirus. The government approved the move on March 25 at a meeting broadcast live on television, saying it will last for 30 days. (RFE/RL, 03.25.20)
• Ukraine is under mounting pressure to rush through banking legislation that will unlock billions of dollars in loans from the IMF and other foreign backers to shore up finances as coronavirus restrictions shut down the economy. After months of foot-dragging, members of Ukraine’s parliament are due to vote in the next few days on a bill that goes against the interests of Igor Kolomoisky. The legislation will prevent former owners of 100 Ukrainian banks that were nationalized or wound up during a sector-wide clean-up from regaining control of their assets through the courts. (Financial Times, 03.26.12)
• The trial of four men accused of murder over the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in Ukraine in 2014 will be adjourned until June 8 to give defense lawyers more time to prepare, judges at the hearing in the Netherlands ruled on March 23. (Reuters, 03.23.20)
• Ukrainian police have detained former Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara on charges of murdering advertising magnate Serhiy Starytskiy. (RFE/RL, 03.25.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus is considering restructuring some part of its external state debt and in effect defaulting on debt coming due this year, Belarusian First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Krutoi said March 21, reports BelTA. (bne IntelliNews, 03.24.20)
• The IMF said its board has approved an emergency $121 million disbursement to Kyrgyzstan to help the Central Asian nation deal with COVID-19, in what could be the first in a series of such moves. (RFE/RL, 03.27.20)
• State-owned companies in Kazakhstan were on March 23 ordered to start selling part of their foreign currency revenue on the domestic market to support the embattled national currency. The order came from the office of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, with the Kazakhstani tenge having weakened within two weeks by around 17 percent to historic lows against the dollar since the collapse of the OPEC+ pact. (bne IntelliNews, 03.24.20)
• The National Security Committee for Kazakhstan says it has arrested a man suspected of plotting a terrorist act in Nur-Sultan. "The man is suspected of plotting a terrorist attack in the capital under the influence of the ideology of the international terrorist organization Daesh," the committee said in a statement. (RFE/RL, 03.26.20)
• Kazakh authorities say they have detained 25 people during a police operation connected to February's deadly ethnic clashes in the southern region of Zhambyl. Deputy Prosecutor-General Yerlik Kenebae said the 25 included ethnic Kazakhs and Kyrgyz, as well as members of the Dungan minority, a Muslim group of Chinese origin. (RFE/RL, 03.27.20)