This Week’s Highlights

• The U.N.'s atomic watchdog says Iran has again breached the JCPOA by firing up advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges installed underground at its Natanz site, RFE/RL reports. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who is to visit Russia Nov. 23, says Tehran would return to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal if U.S. President-elect Joe Biden lifts crippling sanctions against the country, according to RFE/RL.
• Russia failed to mount any major hacking or disinformation operations to interfere in the U.S. presidential election, and the Kremlin's hackers did not even attempt to target elections systems in the way they did in 2016, according to U.S. officials, The Washington Post reports. 
• A former Green Beret officer pleaded guilty in a U.S. federal court to conspiring with Russian intelligence officers and providing them with classified information as part of a sophisticated spying operation dating back more than two decades, the New York Times reports, while a Russian man has been sentenced to 13 years in prison for attempting to hand classified material to U.S. intelligence, according to RFE/RL.
• The BRICS group’s members have called upon Russia and the United States to agree on the extension of the New START treaty without delay, according to TASS.
• Russia will build a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, its first in Africa, the Financial Times reports. The Russian navy has been directed to proceed with plans to construct a base for 300 personnel and space for up to four warships, including nuclear-powered vessels, according to an order signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 16.  
• The Turkish parliament has passed a resolution to send troops to monitor a Russia-brokered peace accord between Azerbaijan and Armenia, RFE/RL reported Nov. 17, however, Interfax reported a day later that Putin believes he has managed to convince Ankara and Baku to not provoke Yerevan with the presence of the Turkish military along the contact line and to avoid provocations, according to Interfax. 

NB: Next week’s Russia in Review will appear on Tuesday, Nov. 24, instead of Friday, Nov. 27, because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The first canister of used nuclear fuel was loaded into the Interim Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility (ISF-2) at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine. ISF-2 is the largest dry-type used fuel storage facility in the world and has an operating life of at least 100 years. (World Nuclear News, 11.19.20)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The U.S. Treasury Department slapped sanctions on two companies operating out of Russia on Nov. 19 for their alleged involvement in the exploitation of forced labor from North Korea.  Moscow deplores Washington’s decision, according to a commentary by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. (VOA, 11.19.20, TASS, 11.20.20)
• Germany has accused Russia and China of manipulating the calculations of oil supplies to North Korea and put this issue up for discussion in the U.N. Security Council. Russia dismissed Germany's accusations. (Interfax, 11.18.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• U.S. President Donald Trump asked senior advisers in an Oval Office meeting Nov. 12 whether he had options to take action against Iran's main nuclear site in the coming weeks. A range of senior advisers dissuaded the president from moving ahead with a military strike. (New York Times, 11.17.20)
• The U.N.'s atomic watchdog says Iran has again breached its nuclear deal with major powers by firing up advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges installed underground at its Natanz site. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi told a press conference Nov. 18 that centrifuges in a buried part of the Natanz site, which the agency revealed in a report last week, were now operational. (RFE/RL, 11.18.20)
• Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who is to visit Russia on Nov. 23, says Tehran would return to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal if U.S. President-elect Joe Biden lifts crippling sanctions against the country. (RFE/RL, 11.18.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• No significant developments.

NATO-Russia relations:

• Of the U.S.'s 29 NATO allies, only nine expect to reach its target of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense this year, up from two in 2014. (Wall Street Journal, 11.17.20)
• The U.S. Air Force is working to expand the number of strategic bomber bases that can store nuclear weapons from two today to five by the 2030s. (Federation of American Scientists, 11.17.20)
• Afghanistan could once again become a haven for international terrorist organizations that seek to harm Western countries if foreign forces leave too abruptly, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Nov. 17 in a rare rebuke of U.S. policy, following reports that the Trump administration would withdraw thousands of troops from the country. (The Washington Post, 11.17.20)

Missile defense:

• The U.S. military has shot down an intercontinental ballistic missile in a test that demonstrated for the first time that the United States can intercept ICBMs from a warship at sea. Russia has accused the United States of lying about its missile defense intentions after the recent intercontinental interception test used technology Moscow officials say the Pentagon has assured them were not aimed at Russia's long-range capabilities. (The Washington Post, 11.17.20, Newsweek, 11.19.20)

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

• Al-Qaeda’s second-highest leader, Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah was gunned down on the streets of Tehran by two assassins on a motorcycle on Aug. 7. He was killed along with his daughter, Miriam, the widow of Osama bin Laden’s son Hamza bin Laden. The attack was carried out by Israeli operatives at the behest of the United States. (New York Times, 11.13.20)

Conflict in Syria:

• Moscow will allocate an estimated $1 billion for the reconstruction of Syria, Mikhail Mizintsev, head of the Russian-Syrian Interministerial Coordination Center for the Return of Refugees, said Nov. 13.  (AFP, 11.14.20)
• The Russian Aerospace Forces have evacuated 31 Russian children from Syria. (TASS, 11.13.20)
• Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin received U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen in Moscow on Nov. 19, the Defense Ministry reported. The sides "exchanged opinions on the situation in the Syrian Arab Republic within the context of political settlement and the activity of the Syrian Constitutional Committee," the ministry said. (TASS, 11.19.20)
• Turkey’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal and Russia’s Presidential envoy for Syria Alexandre Lavrentyev discussed the latest developments in war-torn Syria, and works to do following a cease-fire on Nagorno-Karabakh. (Anadolu Agency, 11.13.20)
• Russia’s Investigative Committee has charged four members of the terrorist organization Jabhat al-Nusra in absentia with the death of Russian air pilot Roman Filipov and put them on the international wanted list. (TASS, 11.18.20)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov extended condolences on Nov. 16 to the leadership and people of Syria over the death of his Syrian counterpart Walid Muallem. (TASS, 11.16.20)

Cyber security:

• Russia failed to mount any major hacking or disinformation operations to interfere in the U.S. presidential election, and the Kremlin's hackers did not even attempt to target elections systems in the way they did in 2016, according to U.S. officials. (The Washington Post, 11.18.20)
• The Russian Defense Ministry has used the Portal system to create an encrypted information space to discuss defense issues with members of regional authorities, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. (Interfax, 11.20.20)
• Russia has started building high-speed internet infrastructure in the Arctic to be used by large ports and oil and gas companies, the Federal Sea and River Transportation Agency announced Nov. 18. The trans-Arctic underwater fiber optic cable will stretch across 10,000 kilometers from the northwestern port of Murmansk to the Pacific port of Vladivostok. (The Moscow Times, 11.19.20)

Elections interference:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Saudi Arabia, which was China’s top oil supplier last year, has exported between 1.6 million and 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from January to November 2020. It was catching up with Russia, which has exported about 1.7 million bpd of oil to China so far in 2020, with Iraq at third place with about 1.2 million bpd. (Reuters, 11.20.20)

U.S.-Russian economic and financial ties:

• Russia increased investments in U.S. government securities from $5.85 billion in August to $5.96 billion in September, according to files released by the U.S. Treasury Department. Long-term bonds amounted to $3.4 billion, up from $2.6 billion in the previous month, whereas short-term bonds equaled $2.5 billion compared with $3.2 billion in August. (TASS, 11.18.20)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A former Green Beret officer pleaded guilty in federal court in Northern Virginia on Nov. 18 to conspiring with Russian intelligence officers and providing them with classified information as part of a sophisticated spying operation dating back more than two decades. Prosecutors said the man, Peter Rafael Dzibinski Debbins, had worked secretly for the Russians for more than a decade and even joined the United States Army's Special Forces at their urging. (New York Times, 11.18.20)
• A Russian man has been sentenced to 13 years in prison for attempting to hand classified material to U.S. intelligence. The FSB said Nov. 20 that the Bryansk regional court had found that Yury Yeshchenko had illegally collected secret material related to electronic equipment developed for the Russian Navy, while working for a company involved in maintaining military vessels in the northwestern city of Murmansk in 2015-2017. (RFE/RL, 11.20.20)
• Russia could block YouTube and other major U.S. social media platforms for “censoring” content from Russian state media, according to draft legislation submitted to parliament Nov. 19. The draft bill explains that the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Foreign Ministry would be able to identify foreign platforms they view as violating Russians’ rights by restricting content. (The Moscow Times, 11.20.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed on Nov. 20 the record-breaking number of 24,318 coronavirus cases and 461 deaths in the past 24 hours. (The Moscow Times, 11.20.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 18 voiced concern over the country's rising coronavirus fatality rate but said the outbreak was under control. Russia has recently registered a sharp rise in new infections but has stopped short of introducing strict measures like some European countries. (AFP, 11.18.20)
• The eastern Siberian republic of Buryatia has become the first Russian region to impose a second coronavirus lockdown, shutting down restaurants, malls and other places of mass gathering for two weeks starting Nov. 16. (The Moscow Times, 11.16.20)
• Russia's GDP declined by 3.6 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2020, marking a notable improvement after an 8 percent year on year fall in GDP seen in the second quarter of 2020. (bne IntelliNews, 11.13.20)
• Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, has approved the first reading of a draft bill that would grant sweeping lifetime immunity to former presidents. The legislation is part of a package of constitutional amendments approved in a referendum this summer that could potentially see Putin stay in power until 2036. (RFE/RL, 11.17.20)
• A group of conservative lawmakers has pulled for consolidation two overlapping child custody bills, one of which would have also banned transgender people from legally changing their gender. (The Moscow Times, 11.16.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia will build a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, its first in Africa, as the Kremlin seeks to expand its global military footprint and cement its burgeoning trade and defense ties with the continent. The Russian navy has been directed to proceed with plans to construct a base for 300 personnel and space for up to four warships, including nuclear-powered vessels, according to an order signed by Putin Nov. 16. (Financial Times, 11.16.20)
• The backbone of Russian airpower in the Arctic has to be created by late 2020, Defense Ministry sources said. Besides hardware supplies, the command system of air units and garrisons will be changed and an effective communication network deployed. (TASS, 11.18.20)
• The Russian Armed Forces are looking to replace their heavy rocket artillery systems, including Bm-30 Smerch and BM-27 Uragan self-propelled multiple rocket launcher systems by late 2027. New Tornado-S large-caliber multiple launch rocket systems will fully replace operational Smerch and Uragan systems. (Defense Blog, 11.18.20)
• The Plesetsk spaceport in north Russia will be able to perform up to 20 launches of the Angara carrier rocket annually from 2025, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said during a working trip to the cosmodrome. (TASS, 11.18.20)
• The armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh showed which technical lessons Russia has to learn in the battlefield. The Vzglyad business newspaper writes that firstly, Russia needs drones as soon as possible. (TASS, 11.19.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Swiss prosecutors plan to close a nearly decade-old money laundering investigation into allegations made by the late lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. Swiss prosecutors opened the money-laundering probe in 2011 after Hermitage Capital claimed that a former Russian tax official moved fraudulent tax refunds through Swiss bank accounts. (The Moscow Times, 11.20.20)
• Russian investigators have decided not to open a criminal case into the self-immolation of a journalist who died early last month after setting herself on fire in an apparent reaction to being investigated by authorities. (RFE/RL, 11.16.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The BRICS group’s members have called upon Russia and the U.S. to agree on the extension of the New START treaty without delay. They also intend to expand international energy cooperation, according to the 12th BRICS Summit Moscow Declaration published on the Kremlin website Nov. 17. The BRICS nations will also make extra efforts to enhance the potential in the public health and biological security sectors, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev told the online summit. (TASS, 11.17.20)
• Russia is determined to maintain cooperation with all participants in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, Putin said Nov. 20. "The Russian side is determined to maintain joint work with all of its partners in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum," Putin said during an online APEC summit. (TASS, 11.20.20)
• Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Israeli national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat have held a telephone conversation to discuss the fight against the coronavirus and the situation in Syria, the Security Council said in a statement. (TASS, 11.19.20)
• The German government has sharply criticized tit-for-tat sanctions imposed by Moscow in retaliation to EU sanctions related to the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. (RFE/RL, 11.13.20)
• French President Emmanuel Macron in an interview accused Russia and Turkey of seeking to promote anti-French sentiment in Africa by funding people who whip up resentment against France in the media. (AFP, 11.20.20)
• Turkey's nuclear regulatory authority has issued a construction license to Russian-owned JSC Akkuyu Nuclear for unit three of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Mersin province in southern Turkey. (World Nuclear News, 11.19.20)
• Rosoboronexport has exported more than 7,000 land armored platforms worth approximately $30 billion to 44 countries since 2000, a spokesman for the company said. Russia’s air defense exports have also amounted to approximately $30 billion since late 2000. (Interfax, 11.18.20, TASS, 11.20.20)
• Hungary’s plans to import and possibly use Russia’s touted Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine raise safety concerns and could damage trust in potential shots, the European Commission said, opening a new front in the EU’s fraught relations with Budapest. (Reuters, 11.19.20)
• Russia is planning to introduce a golden visa scheme, offering foreigners a permanent residency permit in exchange for investing in the Russian economy. (The Moscow Times, 11.20.20)
• Russia has gradually moved to re-open its borders after grounding nearly all international flights this spring due to the coronavirus pandemic. Regular international flights connect Russia with more than 15 countries, including recently re-instated air links with Ethiopia and Seychelles. (The Moscow Times, 11.16.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a telephone conversation with Lavrov, announced the desire of the Chinese authorities to join forces with Russia to fight global hegemony, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced Nov. 19. "Special attention was placed on the schedule of upcoming contacts on the highest and high level as well as specific issues of practical cooperation in the bilateral format and in the framework of implementing agreements of the leaders to integrate development plans of the Eurasian Economic Union and China’s Belt and Road Initiative," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in reference to the conversation. (TASS, 11.18.20)
• Rosatom plans to start “first concreting,” meaning initiating the proactive construction phase at two units of nuclear power plants in China, Rosatom First Deputy CEO Kirill Komarov said Nov. 20. (TASS, 11.20.20)

Karabakh conflict:

• The Turkish parliament has passed a resolution to send troops to monitor a Russia-brokered peace accord between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Putin believes he has managed to convince Ankara and Baku not to provoke Yerevan with the presence of the Turkish military along the contact line and to avoid provocations. (RFE/RL, 11.17.20, Interfax, 11.18.20)
• Azerbaijani troops have entered the Agdam district bordering Nagorno-Karabakh as part of a Russian-brokered peace agreement that ended a six-week war with Armenian forces over the breakaway region. (RFE/RL, 11.20.20)
• The Defense Ministry of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic reported the deaths of another 81 servicemen in clashes with Azerbaijani forces in the Karabakh conflict zone on Nov. 18. (Interfax, 11.18.20)
• Foreign militants have left the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a news conference on Nov. 16. (TASS, 11.16.20)
• France on Nov. 17 urged Russia to clear up "ambiguities" over the ceasefire it brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan to end fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, notably regarding the role of Turkey and foreign fighters. (AFP, 11.17.20)
• Many ethnic Armenians who are fleeing the regions around Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh have opted to destroy their homes after removing as much as they can carry. (RFE/RL, 11.16.20)
• Thousands of furious protesters rallied in the Armenian capital demanding Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan resign over a controversial peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan announced the Moscow-brokered agreement Nov. 10. Pashinyan sparked criticism for comments that were interpreted by the Armenian opposition as a call for confrontation. (AFP, 11.16.20, RFE/RL, 11.16.20)
• Pashinyan has dismissed his foreign and defense ministers in a cabinet reshuffle. (RFE/RL, 11.17.20,  (TASS, 11.20.20)
• The fact that Nikol Pashinyan became Armenia’s prime minister on a wave of protests in 2018 did not affect Moscow’s relations with Yerevan, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. (TASS, 11.17.20)
• The leader of Armenia's opposition Homeland party, Artur Vanetsian, has been arrested and accused of plotting to overthrow the government and kill the country's embattled prime minister. (RFE/RL, 11.14.20)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine will propose sending 1,500 police officers from the OSCE to patrol the conflict zone in the east of the country in a new peace initiative, two sources told Reuters Nov. 13. (Reuters, 11.13.20)
• France and Germany have welcomed Kyiv's opening of new crossing points along the contact line with separatist territory in Ukraine's east, and have called on separatist authorities and their ally Russia to respond in kind. (RFE/RL, 11.13.20)
• Ukraine’s gross domestic product dropped in the third quarter of 2020 by 3.5 percent compared to the same period in 2019, while in the second quarter the decline was 11.4 percent, and in the first 1.3 percent, according to a preliminary estimate published by the State Statistics Service. (Interfax, 11.16.20)
• With imports falling faster than exports, Ukraine recorded a $531 million trade surplus for January-September, compared to a $4.2 billion deficit during the same nine months last year. For goods, China saved the day by increasing its purchases of Ukrainian goods by 86 percent, to $4.8 billion, and cutting its imports by 12 percent, to $5.8 billion. (Ukraine Business News, 11.16.20)
• The EBRD is ready to loan Ukraine 200 million euros to conduct a nationwide inventory of mineral deposits and to prepare promising deposits for mining through transparent auctions of licenses, Prime Minister Shmyhal said. (Ukraine Business News, 11.16.20)
• Ukrainian authorities have closed a criminal probe into Joe Biden, who was accused of improperly forcing the ouster of the country’s prosecutor general in 2016, a police spokesperson said. The investigation was launched in February after the ousted prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, appealed to a court. (NBC, 11.10.20)

Belarus:

• Thousands came to pay tribute to Raman Bandarenko on Nov. 20 at the Church of Christ's Resurrection in a Minsk suburb. The 31-year-old died in a hospital last week after reportedly being badly beaten by masked security forces. Hundreds of Belarusian OMON riot police clashed with demonstrators at the “Square of Canges,” who were trying to prevent the authorities from dismantling a makeshift memorial to Bandarenko. There have been almost daily demonstrations following the Aug. 9 presidential election that Alexander Lukashenko claims he won. The opposition says the vote was rigged and the West has refused to accept the result. (RFE/RL, 11.19.20, bne IntelliNews, 11.16.20)
  • The Belarus security services’ unprovoked violence against anti-government protesters is unacceptable, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Nov. 17 while also criticizing protesters for “provocations” against officers. (The Moscow Times, 11.17.20)
• On Nov. 15, Belarusian security forces detained over 1,200 protesters across the country in the latest weekly demonstration calling for Lukashenko to step down and hold a new presidential election. Security forces also reportedly used tear gas and stun grenades on the protesters, and 23 journalists were reportedly among those detained. (The Moscow Times, 11.16.20)
• Belarusian authorities Nov. 18 added the creators of the Nexta Live opposition Telegram channel, which mobilized protesters during the country's ongoing post-election rallies, to a list of terrorists. (AFP, 11.19.20)
• The European Commission is recommending the EU scale back cooperation with Belarus, including in trade and security, but that support for civil society and environmental protection be maintained or even boosted. (RFE/RL, 11.19.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Moldova's pro-European election winner Maia Sandu on Nov. 16 vowed balanced ties with the West and Russia as Moscow-backed incumbent Igor Dodon conceded defeat and asked his supporters to refrain from violence. (AFP, 11.16.20)
• Thousands of opposition demonstrators took to the streets of the Georgian capital on Nov. 14 to call for recent parliamentary elections to be rerun. (RFE/RL, 11.14.20)
• U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has met with Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia and Foreign Minister Davit Zalkaliani in Tbilisi to discuss the prospects of deepening defense and security cooperation. (RFE/RL, 11.18.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• “I hope that our country will take action against Turkey and [Azerbaijan] for their unprovoked and deadly attacks on Armenians,” Bill Belichick, general manager of the New England Patriots football team, said. (Boston.com, 11.18.20)