This Week’s Highlights:

• Several reports indicate that the Trump administration has not yet finalized the decision on whether to withdraw from the INF Treaty.  TASS reports that U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said that U.S. President Donald Trump will listen to the advice of his administration officials before making a final decision on whether or not to withdraw from the treaty. Mattis has also asked America’s European allies to offer suggestions about what the U.S. could do other than pull out of the treaty, according to The Washington Post. Washington has also asked Moscow INF-related questions. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Oct. 28 that Moscow started preparing answers to the questions related to the arms control pact delivered by U.S. officials  “a week ago.” He also said Trump and Putin are to discuss the treaty when they meet in Paris on Nov. 11.
• As the 2018 U.S. midterm elections near, there is surprisingly little hacking going on, a director at Google remarked to the New York Times for a story headlined “Mystery of the Midterm Elections: Where Are the Russians?” Russians are also conspicuously missing from congressional political ads: Of recent ads aired over four weeks, 0.1 percent mentioned Russia, and there were no mention at all in ads for Senate races, according to The Nation’s story, headlined “With Just Days to the Midterms, Russiagate Is MIA.”
• Russia has vowed to help Iran counter U.S. attempts to throttle its oil sales when sanctions come into effect next week, and is looking to “continue developing” its trading of Iranian oil, which it sells to third countries, the Financial Times reports.
• Russian press quotes an industry source as saying that the Avangard boost-glide system "will begin combat duty by the end of 2019." The first regiment will include two UR-100NUTTH/SS-19 missiles, each armed with a single boost-glide vehicle, according to the Russian strategic nuclear forces blog, while TASS reports that serial production of the new generation Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles is scheduled to begin in 2021.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Radiation emergency drills were conducted at Andreyeva Bay earlier this month while officials from Rosatom and Norwegian Radiation Safety Authority looked on. According to both sides, the drill came off without a hitch. (Bellona, 10.30.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• Russia has vowed to help Iran counter U.S. attempts to throttle its oil sales when sanctions come into effect next week. Russia is looking to “continue developing” its trading of Iranian oil, which it sells to third countries, regardless of the sanctions, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. Meanwhile, Russian state-owned oil producer Zarubezhneft has pulled out of projects in Iran because of looming U.S. sanctions. (Financial Times, 11.01.18, Reuters, 11.02.18)
  • Benchmark crude oil was down 20 cents a barrel at $72.6 on Nov. 2, heading for a weekly loss of more than 6 percent, after a report that Washington has granted several countries waivers on sanctions on Tehran, allowing them to continue to import Iranian crude. U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on Oct. 31 the White House wants sanctions on Iran's oil sector to put a strain on Iran's economy, but it does not want to harm "friends and allies" that depend on the oil. (Reuters, 11.02.18, RFE/RL, 11.01.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Oct. 30 he expects Russia to behave in a "professional" manner as the Russian navy and NATO both conduct exercises off Norway's coast this week. The Russian navy plans to test missiles in international waters off Norway’s coast as NATO conducts its largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War.  (RFE/RL, 10.30.18, RFE/RL, 10.29.18)
• The admission of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO would create a military and economic problem for Russia, which will have to build a defensive belt near Sochi. (Interfax, 10.29.18)
• British jets were scrambled to investigate suspected Russian fighter aircraft flying near U.K. airspace on Oct. 31. (Reuters, 10.31.18)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• U.S. President Donald Trump will listen to the advice of his administration before making the final decision on whether to withdraw from the INF Treaty, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis said. In separate comments Mattis said his talks with European allies so far have not resulted in any suggestions for addressing Russia's violation of the treaty other than for the U.S. to withdraw. Mattis said he asked European allies for ideas at a NATO meeting in Belgium earlier this month, about two weeks before Trump announced U.S. plans to pull out of the treaty. "I said, 'We need to know if you have any ideas,'" Mattis recounted. "So far we have not been able to find any." (TASS, 10.31.18, The Washington Post, 10.28.18)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Oct. 28 that Moscow has started preparing answers to “an extensive list of questions” related to the INF Treaty delivered by U.S. officials “just a week ago.” The presidents of the U.S. and Russia will discuss the treaty when they meet in Paris on Nov. 11, Lavrov said. (Reuters, 10.28.18, One India, 10.31.18)
• In a joint statement issued after talks in Moscow Russian President Vladimir Putin and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Cane called on the U.S. to reconsider its intention to withdraw from the INF Treaty. The leaders of Russia and Cuba also vowed to expand what they called their “strategic” ties and urged the U.S. to lift its blockade of Cuba. (AP, 11.02.18, Reuters, 11.02.18)
• At talks between Russian and NATO ambassadors on Oct. 31, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged Russia to provide details about a new missile system the U.S. and other allies claim violates the INF Treaty. He also urged Russia to continue to honor the treaty. (AP, 10.30.18, RFE/RL, 11.01.18)
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is warning that Washington's plans to withdraw from the INF Treaty will have "serious consequences" for Europe. (RFE/RL, 10.30.18)

Counter-terrorism:

• Aibek Smadiyarov, Kazakh acquaintance of Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, has been released from a U.S. prison after serving more than five years for obstruction of justice. (RFE/RL, 10.29.18)
• Russian security forces have shut down an Islamic State cell in the Muslim-majority republic of Tatarstan, the FSB has said. (The Moscow Times, 10.30.18)

Conflict in Syria:

• The leaders of Russia, Germany, France and Turkey stressed the importance on Oct. 27 of a lasting ceasefire in Syria, and said a committee to create a new constitution should meet by the end of the year. During the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin also called on leaders to support the idea of convening an international conference on Syrian refugees. (The Moscow Times, 10.29.18, Interfax, 10.29.18)
• A foreign reconnaissance plane guiding drones may be downed in case of another attack on the Russian base in Syria, Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Vladimir Shamanov said on Oct. 30. Interfax said earlier, citing Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, that a U.S. Poseidon 8 aircraft was guiding one of the drone attacks on the Russian airbase in Hmeimim. American officials denied the accusation. (Interfax, 10.30.18, Military Times, 10.28.18)
• Russia's foreign ministry on Nov. 1 accused Nusra militants in Syria's Idlib of trying to wreck a Russo-Turkish initiative to create a de-militarized zone in the region. (Reuters, 11.02.18)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has told Arab leaders that Russia is no replacement for the U.S. in the Middle East. (RFE/RL, 10.27.18)
• The U.S. military accused Russia on Nov. 1 of blocking the delivery of critical aid to the Rukban refugee camp in Syria. On Oct. 31, Russia's defense ministry accused the U.S. of intentionally blocking aid from reaching the inhabitants of Rukban. (CNN, 11.01.18)

Cyber security:

• The U.S. is "right now undertaking offensive cyber operations" to safeguard next week's midterm elections, though it was "too soon to tell" whether they are having an effect, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said. (The Washington Post, 10.31.18)
• The U.S. Defense Department and intelligence community reportedly have a secret plan for a cyberattack on Russia if Moscow directly interferes with the midterms next week. (Business Insider, 11.02.18)

Elections interference:

• One study of political ads over a four-week period through mid-October found that 0.1 percent of ads aired in congressional races mentioned Russia; there were zero mentions of Russia in ads for Senate races. (The Nation, 10.29.18)
• When asked what surprised him the most about the 2018 midterm elections, the director of Google’s most advanced team of threat detectors, Shane Huntley, said: “The answer is surprisingly little on the hacking front, at least compared to two years ago.”  (New York Times, 11.01.18)
• U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin was notified his social media accounts had been hacked, his office said on Nov. 1, amid U.S. government warnings of attempts to interfere in next week's congressional elections. (Reuters, 11.02.18)
• Special counsel Robert Mueller's investigators are examining comments by Roger Stone—a longtime adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump—about WikiLeaks during a series of conference calls he hosted in 2016. In at least two August conferences, Stone told callers about WikiLeaks' plans to release information that he said would affect the 2016 presidential campaign before the election. Earlier this week, Stone told The Washington Post that he hasn’t discussed WikiLeaks with anybody from the Trump campaign. However, the New York Times reported Nov. 1, that Stone emailed with Steve Bannon about WikiLeaks just days before it first started releasing Russia’s hacked Hillary Clinton emails. (Wall Street Journal, 10.30.18, The Washington Post, 11.01.18)
• A spokesman for Robert Mueller said Oct. 30 that the special counsel's office has asked the FBI to examine claims that women were offered money to say Mueller behaved inappropriately toward them decades ago. (The Washington Post, 10.30.18)

Energy exports:

• Russia’s oil output averaged 11.4 million barrels a day last month. That’s about 160,000 barrels a day more than two years ago, before Russia agreed to cut supply with OPEC. It’s a post-Soviet record, and not far off its highest-ever output. (Bloomberg/The Moscow Times, 11.02.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

• Over the next couple of years, Rosneft will be looking for a partner to carry out the Far East Petrochemical Company project. According to Vedomosti, ExxonMobil might become this partner. (TASS, 11.02.18)

Other bilateral issues:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron have discussed by phone hosting a meeting between the Russian and U.S. leaders. (Interfax, 10.29.18)
• The Russian space agency announced on Nov. 1 that it was planning to launch three astronauts to the International Space Station on Dec. 3., signaling that it believes the country's Soyuz rocket is safe for travel after an in-flight failure. The astronauts for the December launch are Oleg Kononenko of Russia, Anne McClain of NASA and David Saint-Jacques of the Canadian Space Agency. The launch failure was caused by a faulty sensor that was damaged during the Soyuz rocket's assembly at the cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, the head of a Russian commission investigating the incident said. (New York Times, 11.01.18, RFE/RL, 11.01.18)
• The Public Religion Research Institute released on Oct. 29 its survey of more than 2,500 American adults. Seventy-five percent of Americans view Russia unfavorably, and 80 percent view Russian President Vladimir Putin unfavorably. Opinion on Robert Mueller is slightly negative, with 39 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving of the special counsel. (The Washington Post, 10.29.18)
• U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman Jr. revealed in an interview published Nov. 1 that he was diagnosed with Stage 1 skin cancer over the summer. (The Washington Post, 11.01.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• Russia advanced to 31st out of 190 countries in the World Bank’s 2019 business rankings, from 35th in the 2018 report and 120th seven years ago. (Reuters, 10.31.18)
• Russian millionaires hold less than a third of their financial assets in banks in the country—$140 billion—against $315 billion abroad, according to a new report by Russian analytical company Frank RG. (The Moscow Times, 10.31.18)
• Russia’s biggest internet search engine Yandex said it expects 2018 revenue to grow by 35-38 percent in ruble terms, up from a previous forecast of 30-35 percent. (Reuters, 10.29.18)
• The Russian government and oil companies have agreed to cut wholesale domestic fuel prices as a measure aimed at stemming an unwanted increase in the cost of petrol and diesel. Gasoline and diesel retail prices have increased by almost 7 percent since May. (Reuters, 11.02.18)
• More than one million people were granted Russian citizenship in 2012-2017, while the net migration during the period reached 1.6 million, according to a Russian presidential decree. (TASS, 10.31.18)
• The Russian Finance Ministry believes the size of the National Wealth Fund will almost quadruple to 14.2 trillion rubles ($216.1 billion) or 12 percent of GDP in 2021. That is close to the 16.9 percent of GDP the government plans to spend that year. (Reuters, 10.31.18)
• The percentage of Russians who say they feel a certain degree of responsibility for their country has increased by more than three-fold over the past year, from 9 percent to 28 percent, according to a survey by the Levada Center. (The Moscow Times, 10.31.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed new legislation published Oct. 31 increasing the fines on protest organizers for violating public assembly rules. (The Moscow Times, 11.01.18)
• The annual ceremony honoring the memory of thousands of people executed during Josef Stalin's Great Terror saw thousands of people lined up at the Solovetsky Kamen memorial on Moscow's Lubyanka Square on Oct. 29 to pay their respects. (RFE/RL, 10.29.18)
• Police in Moscow and St. Petersburg have detained at least 68 people taking part in unauthorized protests. The protests were held to support 10 defendants accused of extremism in a case over a group called New Greatness. (RFE/RL, 10.29.18)
• Russia's rating in the World Internet Freedom Index has fallen for the sixth consecutive year, according to a report published by Freedom House on Nov. 1, now ranking 53rd with 65 points, behind Thailand and Gambia. (The Moscow Times, 11.02.18)
• The media-freedom representative of OSCE has condemned an "exceptionally high" fine imposed on Oct. 26 by a Moscow court against the independent The New Times online news outlet for allegedly failing to comply with financial reporting obligations under Russia's controversial "foreign agents" law. (RFE/RL, 10.28.18)
• Nine sheep dressed in press jackets were sent to the offices of the investigative Novaya Gazeta newspaper on Oct. 29, days after it published an explosive report about alleged links between Putin-friendly businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin and a number of contract killings. (The Moscow Times, 10.29.18)
• The Saratov Regional Organization for Diabetics, a group providing aid to diabetics in the Russian city of Saratov, says it is no longer able to conduct its operations after being labeled a “foreign agent” and will be shut down. (RFE/RL, 10.31.18)
• In the mid-1990s, about half of the Russian population was against any form of xenophobia and racism, but that figure is now 25-30 percent, Lev Gudkov, the head of the Levada Center, said. (Interfax, 10.29.18)
• Russia is currently experiencing its lowest level of anti-Semitism in history and has the lowest level of anti-Semitism in Eastern Europe, according to Yuri Kanner, president of the Russian Jewish Congress. (The Moscow Times, 10.29.18)
• Ingushetia’s Constitutional Court ruled on Oct. 30 that a new border agreement with Chechnya—which sparked weeks of protests—was unconstitutional. (The Moscow Times, 10.30.18)
• Karachais in Russia's North Caucasus region of Karachayevo-Cherkesia have marked the 75th anniversary of their mass deportation to Central Asia by Josef Stalin. (RFE/RL, 11.02.18)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian press quotes an industry source as saying that the Avangard boost-glide system (Project 4202) "will begin combat duty by the end of 2019." The first regiment will include two UR-100NUTTH/SS-19 missiles, each armed with a single boost-glide vehicle. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Blog, 10.29.18)
• Serial production of the new generation Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles is scheduled to begin in 2021. (TASS, 10.31.18)
• One of the largest floating docks in the world sank on the night of Oct. 29 while conducting maintenance work on the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier near Murmansk, damaging the ship and leading to at least four injuries. (The Moscow Times, 10.30.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 2 publicly backed the GRU military intelligence agency at the center of a spy poisoning row while rubbishing a recent change to its name. The agency changed its name to the Main Directorate (GU) as a result of a reform in 2010, although it is still commonly known as GRU, or Main Intelligence Directorate. Putin mocked the new name saying "it's not clear where the word Intelligence went—the Main Intelligence Directorate—this should be reinstated.” (AFP, 11.02.18)
• Since 2008, Estonian officials say they have arrested at least 17 people on suspicion of spying for Russian intelligence services—and, often, the names of the suspects are given to the media, along with video from the investigation or arrest. (The Washington Post, 10.31.18)
• An explosive device detonated inside the headquarters of the FSB in the northern city of Arkhangelsk on Oct. 31, wounding three workers and killing the 17-year-old who carried it. (New York Times, 10.31.18)
• Russia’s Federal Security Services have reportedly detained a Chechen man who was caught passing through a Siberian forest with a backpack stacked with 13 kilograms of gold. (The Moscow Times, 10.29.18)
• Russian investigators have opened a criminal case against three high-ranking policemen for allegedly gang raping a 23-year-old female colleague in the Ufa region. (The Moscow Times, 11.01.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia will strongly defend the rights of its compatriots abroad, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the World Congress of Compatriots in Moscow on Oct. 31. Putin also warned of "the most serious consequences" over splits in the Orthodox Church after the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople announced the decision to proceed to recognize Ukraine's request for an autocephalous church. (The Moscow Times, 10.31.18, RFE/RL, 10.31.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted an invitation to visit Italy, seen as one of the European countries most likely to press for a thaw in relations with Moscow and a lifting of EU sanctions. (Reuters, 11.01.18)
• Russia has quietly invited a group of senior Afghan politicians to talks with the Taliban in Moscow, bypassing Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's government in a move that has angered officials in Kabul who say it could muddle the U.S.-backed peace process. (Reuters, 11.02.18)
• Russia's expanding influence in the Central African Republic, a former French colony, over the past months is not likely to stabilize the country, French Defense Minister Florence Parly said. (Reuters, 10.29.18)
• Rosneft is scrambling to find new potential projects to keep its partner Eni in the country, after the Italian company walked away from an exploration effort with the Kremlin-controlled group. (Financial Times, 10.28.18)
• Russia sold $19 billion worth of weapons in 2018, according to the CEO of Rostec. (The Moscow Times, 11.01.18)
• Venezuela isn’t looking for money from Russia, just economic advice, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergey Storchak said after returning from a visit to Caracas. (Bloomberg, 11.02.18)

China:

• No significant developments.

Ukraine:

• Russia has imposed sweeping sanctions on Ukraine affecting 322 individuals and 68 businesses, including former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's son. The new sanctions were described as counter-measures drawn in response to Ukrainian sanctions against Moscow imposed in May. (The Moscow Times, 11.01.18)
• Ukraine’s exports through August were up 12.4 percent year on year, to $30.9 billion, according to the Economic Development and Trade Ministry.  (Ukraine Business News, 10.31.18)
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel has visited Ukraine, pledging to uphold anti-Russian sanctions for Russian actions in Ukraine. Merkel has earlier announced that she will not seek reelection as head of her party in December, and will not seek reelection as chancellor in 2021. (RFE/RL, 10.29.18, AP, 11.01.18)
• France and Germany have blamed Moscow and pro-Russian separatists for the Oct. 27 downing of an unmanned OSCE drone in rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 11.02.18)
• Russia has clashed with the U.S. and European powers at the U.N. over the legality of Nov. 11 elections in areas of eastern Ukraine held by Moscow-backed separatists. (RFE/RL, 10.31.18)
• Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko will visit Paris on Nov. 11. (Interfax, 10.30.18)
• U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry will visit Ukraine, Poland and other eastern European countries next week as the Trump administration seeks to offer them alternatives to buying coal and gas from Russia. (Reuters, 11.01.18)
• Yuliya Tymoshenko, leader of the All-Ukrainian union Batkivschyna (Fatherland) party, has announced that Ukraine needs a new constitution that will provide for the maximum freedom of its citizens but keep Ukraine as a unitary state, with no special status for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. (Interfax, 10.30.18)
• The Security Service of Ukraine has accused Russia, as well as the unrecognized Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, of attempting to recruit and coerce the wives of Ukrainian soldiers. (The Moscow Times, 10.31.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Georgians will choose a new president in a runoff after a very close first-round vote. French-born former Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili, who has the backing of the ruling Georgian Dream party, will face opposition candidate Grigol Vashadze in a second round to be held by Dec. 2. (RFE/RL, 10.29.18)
• Armenian lawmakers have triggered early parliamentary elections by failing for a second time, in accordance with a prior political agreement, to elect a new prime minister. The elections will most likely be held on Dec. 9. (RFE/RL, 11.01.18)
• Acting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian says he made clear to U.S. national security adviser John Bolton last week that Armenia will pursue its national interests and maintain "special relations" with its neighbor Iran. (RFE/RL, 11.02.18)
• Asked whether Yerevan is actually going to purchase military equipment from the U.S., Acting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said: “The [Armenian] government is not constrained by anything. If there is an offer from the United States that is good for us, we will discuss it.” (RFE/RL, 10.27.18)
• Russia's foreign ministry said on Oct. 29 that it took issue with U.S. national security adviser John Bolton's comments during a visit to Yerevan last week. Bolton "demanded openly that Armenia renounce historical patterns [sic] in its international relations and hardly bothered to conceal the fact that this implied Armenia’s traditional friendship with Russia," the ministry said in a statement. (RFE/RL, 10.29.18)
• Yuri Khachaturov, the current head of the Collective Security Treaty, has been relieved of his duties after being charged with overthrowing Armenia's constitutional order when he was the country's deputy defense minister. (RFE/RL, 11.02.18)
• Polymetal, one of Russia’s largest gold and silver miners, has sealed a deal to sell its Kapan mine in Armenia to Kyrgyzstan-based Chaarat Gold Holdings for $55 million. (Financial Times, 10.30.18)
• Kyrgyz authorities say they have detained nine people suspected of being members of an unidentified international terrorist organization. (RFE/RL, 11.02.18)
• A Kyrgyz man suspected of wiring some $100,000 to terrorist groups in Syria has been apprehended, authorities say. Kyrgyz authorities have said that some 500 men and women from Kyrgyzstan joined the Islamic State terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq. (RFE/RL, 10.31.18)
• Kazakhstan's Committee for National Security has detained 10 people the authorities say are suspected of propagating terrorism via the Internet. (RFE/RL, 10.29.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.