This Week’s Highlights

• U.S. and Russian diplomats failed to agree on embassy staffing and consular services during an Oct. 11-13 visit to Moscow by U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, AFP reports; however, Nuland had productive discussions on near-future contacts between the Russian and American presidents and on Ukraine, according to TASS. The agency quoted Nuland as saying she and deputy head of the Kremlin administration Dmitry Kozak discussed their countries’ shared interest “in the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements.”
• In recent weeks, American officials said they had begun passing intelligence to the Russians about specific hackers who the United States believes are behind threats to companies, cities and infrastructure, The New York Times reports; officials say their Russian counterparts have sounded cooperative, but have not yet made arrests.
• A recent poll from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs said the share of Americans who favor defending Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia if Russia were to invade increased from 44 percent in 2014 to 59 percent today, The Washington Post reports.
• The Russian-Chinese joint exercise Maritime Interaction 2021, scheduled for Oct. 14-17, has started in the Sea of Japan, TASS reports, citing the press office of Russia’s Pacific Fleet. Meanwhile, Russia’s Defense Ministry said a Russian warship on Oct. 15 prevented U.S. Navy destroyer USS Chafee from what it described as an attempt to intrude into Russia’s territorial waters in the Sea of Japan, according to AP.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that tensions surrounding Taiwan should be resolved through talks by the countries of the region without outside interference. "To my mind, China does not need this, the use of force. China is a giant powerful economy and … has emerged as the world’s top economy in terms of purchasing power parity, outpacing the United States," Russian news agencies quoted Putin as saying Oct. 13. “I ... believe that President Xi Jinping is my friend,” Putin told CNBC in separate comments. 
• The deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Yuri Kokov, told Rossiiskaya Gazeta that Russia has intelligence on “terrorists’ aspirations” to get information on the manufacture of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, “as well as their increased attention to the possible use of pathogenic biological agents and toxic chemicals.”
• Russia’s spending on the nuclear weapons complex by 2024 will increase by 14% as compared to 2022, Interfax quoted State Duma Defense Committee head Andrei Kartapolov as saying.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• Deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council Yuri Kokov has given a wide-ranging interview to Rossiskaya Gazeta to become the first senior Russian official in many months to publicly warn of the enduring interest of terrorists in NBC weapons. “The aspirations of terrorists to gain access to information on manufacturing weapons of nuclear, chemical and biological destruction, as well as their increased attention to possible use of using pathogenic biological agents and toxic chemicals, are being recorded. For that purpose they are purposefully recruiting industry specialists, including teachers and students of chemical and biological educational institutions,” Kokov said. He also said terrorists in countries such as India have attempted to employ individuals carrying COVID-19 to infect the civilian population. (Russia Matters, 10.12.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell is waiting on responses from Washington and Tehran before calling a meeting of negotiators on the Iranian nuclear deal. Borrell is in Washington, where he is meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken over the Iranian nuclear accord. EU chief negotiator Enrique Mora met Oct. 14 with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, who is in charge of the nuclear file for Iran. Iran and the EU agreed to hold further dialogue in Brussels aimed at resuming talks after Mora and Bagheri met for several hours. (RFE/RL, 10.15.21)
• On Oct. 13, Blinken expressed hope for the success of talks with Iran, but warned that "the runway that we have left to do that is getting shorter and shorter." As his visiting Israeli counterpart, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, reserved the right to use force against Iran, Blinken told reporters: "We are prepared to turn to other options if Iran doesn't change course." (RFE/RL, 05.14.21)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian spoke over the phone about the JCPOA at Iran's initiative on Oct. 14, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. "The mutual desire to resume the JCPOA consultations in Vienna as soon as possible was underscored," the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (TASS, 10.14.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• A recent poll from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs that found that, despite what you might think, Americans are actually more in favor of intervention if China invades Taiwan than in the nearly four decades the institution had polled this question. Defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion was supported by 28% in 2015. But today it's at 52%—nearly double. Defending Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia if Russia invaded has gone from 44% in 2014 to 59% today. On defending Israel from a neighbor in the Middle East, the uptick is less pronounced, but it, too, has climbed from the mid-to-high-40s to 53%. (The Washington Post, 10.12.21)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is not planning to meet with the Taliban, who are expected to arrive in Moscow for Oct. 20 consultations, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Putin has earlier asserted that the U.S. ignored Afghanistan's history and culture when it invaded, as he lamented what he said was a tragedy in the country. A U.S. delegation has been invited to join the consultations, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov reported Oct. 15. New Delhi has accepted an invitation from Russia to attend the meeting in Moscow as well. (TASS, 10.15.21, RFE/RL, 05.14.21, Interfax, 10.15.21, Deccanherald, 10.15.21)
• The chief of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, has called upon all CIS member-states to adhere to a viewpoint that the deployment of U.S. and NATO facilities in Asia would be impermissible. Russia sees as extremely dangerous U.S. pressure on the Central Asian countries, being exerted with the aim of making them accommodate military and intelligence facilities, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s third department of CIS countries, Alexander Sternik, said.  (TASS, 10.13.21, TASS, 10.15.21)
• The S-400 issue is the “main impediment” to getting the F-16 fighter jet deal with Turkey through Congress, says Aaron Stein, director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The situation creates a bind for the Biden administration. Pressing for a green light to the F16 sale without any conditions would be seen by Turkey’s critics as unwarranted appeasement. But if the sale is rejected, Ankara will have found a ready-made excuse for turning to Russia. (Financial Times, 10.15.21)
• German police confirmed Oct. 8 an investigation into an "alleged sonic attack" targeting U.S. Embassy staffers in Berlin, who are among the roughly 200 cases of a mysterious illness reported by U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers stationed around the world. As of August, at least two U.S. government employees based in Germany have logged symptoms such as dizziness, nausea and severe headaches. (The Washington Post, 10.09.21)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• The Russian-Chinese joint exercise Maritime Interaction 2021 has started in the Sea of Japan, the press office of Russia’s Pacific Fleet said. During the maneuvers, the Russian navy is being represented by the Project 1155 large antisubmarine warfare ship Admiral Panteleyev, the Project 20380 corvettes Hero of the Russian Federation Aldar Tsydenzhapov and Gromky, two harbor minesweepers, the Project 877 submarine Ust-Bolsheretsk (Kilo), a missile boat and a rescue tug. The Chinese warships participating in the exercise include the destroyers Kunming and Nanchang, the corvettes Qinzhou and Luzhou, a diesel submarine, a supply ship and a rescue vessel. (TASS, 10.15.21)
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry said a Russian warship on Oct. 15 prevented U.S. Navy destroyer U.S.S. Chafee from what it described as an attempt to intrude into Russia’s territorial waters in the Sea of Japan. (AP, 10.15.21)
• "Despite the recession in the global economy, the trade turnover between Russia and China has been increasing, for nine months of the current year, it exceeds 100 billion dollars. It’s a good indicator for us. We can reach record levels by the end of the year. And in this regard, Beijing is a highly reliable partner," Putin said. (TASS, 10.13.21)
• Putin has said that the problem of settling the situation surrounding Taiwan should be resolved through negotiations via the efforts of countries of the region without outside interference. "As far as I understand the Chinese philosophy, including the state’s development and governance, it is in no way linked with the use of force," Putin pointed out. "To my mind, China does not need this, the use of force. China is a giant powerful economy and China has emerged as the world’s top economy in terms of purchasing power parity, outpacing the United States. By building up its potential, China can achieve the implementation of its national goals," Putin said. (TASS, 10.13.21, Interfax, 10.13.21)
• “I ... believe that President Xi Jinping is my friend. We have worked together for many years and have achieved good results on both the political and economic tracks. I believe that this benefits the people of China and Russia, and gives more balance and a sense of stability in international affairs,” Putin told CNBC. (CNBC/The Kremlin, 10.14.21)

Missile defense:

• The first brigade set of advanced S-500 air defense missile systems has been delivered to the Aerospace Force’s 15th Army covering Moscow and the Central Industrial Region. (TASS, 10.14.21)

Nuclear arms control:

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov during a meeting with U.K. Ambassador to Moscow Deborah Bronnert on Oct. 15 emphasized Russia’s position that the new trilateral AUKUS partnership created by Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. would create difficulties in the sphere of arms control and expressed hope that all three members of the partnership would adhere to their obligations in the sphere of nuclear non-proliferation. (TASS, 10.15.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• “A number of ISIS-associated international terrorist groups continue to operate in that country [Afghanistan]. Militants with experience in waging war in Syria and Iraq are being drawn there. So, it is possible that terrorists might try to destabilize the situation in neighboring countries, including the CIS countries, and go as far as starting to expand outrightly,” Putin told the heads of security agencies of CIS countries. Putin then said on Oct. 15 during a video address to the CIS summit that, "According to our intelligence, the number of [IS] members alone in northern Afghanistan is about 2,000 people.” (RFE/RL, 10.15.21, The Kremlin, 10.13.21)
• The U.S. Justice Department on Oct. 13 urged the U.S. Supreme Court to reinstate the death penalty initially imposed on Dzhokhar Tsarnaev—the convicted Boston Marathon bomber whose sentence was tossed last year—bringing a pivotal capital punishment case before the high court just three months after the Biden administration placed a moratorium on federal executions. (Mass.live, 10.13.21)

Conflict in Syria:

• The Black Sea Fleet’s Project 11356 frigates Admiral Grigorovich and Admiral Essen armed with Kalibr-NK cruise missiles are preparing for their deployment in the Mediterranean Sea as part of the Russian navy’s standing taskforce. (TASS, 10.12.21)
• Pantsir missile guns of the Syrian air defense downed eight out of 12 missiles launched by Israel at the T-4 airfield in the Homs region on Oct. 8, Vadim Kulit, deputy chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, told reporters. (TASS, 10.12.21)
• Blinken said during a news conference on Oct. 13 that the United States would not support any efforts to normalize Washington’s ties with Syria, or with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, until the country made substantial progress toward a political solution to the country’s decade-long civil war. (The National Interest, 10.15.21)

Cyber issues:

• When the White House convened 30 nations this week to formulate strategies for combating ransomware, one country was intentionally omitted: Russia, the single biggest source of the problem. It is not that U.S. President Joe Biden is freezing the country out of the discussion. Ever since Biden's summit with Putin in Geneva in June, White House officials have been testing Moscow's willingness to crack down on the ransomware gangs that wreaked havoc in the United States last spring, shuttering a crucial gasoline and jet fuel pipeline and crippling a major producer of meat. In recent weeks, American officials said they had begun passing intelligence to the Russians about specific hackers who the United States believes are behind the threats to companies, cities and infrastructure. Officials say the Russians have sounded cooperative, but have not yet made arrests. Anne Neuberger, deputy national security adviser to the White House on cyber threats, said the U.S. was “looking to see near-term progress in actions” after sharing information with Moscow on ransomware gangs operating in Russia. Meanwhile the participants of the cyber summit pledged to share information about cyberattacks and investigations, push firms to shore up security, and disrupt the financial infrastructure of a criminal hacking economy. (The New York Times, 10.14.21, The Wall Street Journal, 10.14.21, 10.13.21, RFE/RL, 10.13.21, Financial Times, 10.15.21)
• The detail of the charges against Group-IB co-founder Ilya Sachkov—who was arrested by Russia’s FSB and charged with treason—are classified, but his arrest and the 20-year sentence he faces if found guilty have reverberated around Russia’s cyber security community. Three people in Russia’s cyber security community said the Kremlin was signaling that it did not want to cooperate with the West on cyber crime—and would punish those who stepped out of line. (Financial Times, 10.12.21)
• The FSB said new smart glasses launched by Facebook and Ray-Ban are a possible “spy gadget”—a designation which could prohibit them from being sold in Russia. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.12.21)
• According to data from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, the leading share of global bitcoin network hashrate is now in the United States (35.4%) as of the end of August, followed by Kazakhstan (18.1%) and Russia (11%), with the three countries already gaining market share prior to the crackdown in China, it said. (The Washington Post, 10.14.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Putin said Oct. 13 that Russia is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060. Speaking about the world's future energy market, Putin added: "The role of oil and coal will decrease." The Russian government is preparing a new environmental strategy with stronger measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (Financial Times, 10.03.21, The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.13.21)
• Putin has said Russia is meeting all requests for gas supplies from Europe, vehemently denying that Gazprom was limiting supplies to the continent to drive up prices.  The Russian president said accusations Gazprom was using energy as a “weapon” to speed up approval of the recently built Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany were “politically motivated blather.” He said the company had already exceeded its contractual obligations to the bloc. Putin also indicated on Oct. 13 that no additional gas was likely to be sent to Europe in the short-term, however. Extra supplies will probably have to come from new long-term pipeline contracts, rather than the spot market mechanisms favored by the EU, he added. Low wind power output in Europe has played a role in causing the current gas supply crisis in Europe, Putin said. (Financial Times, 10.03.21, bne IntelliNews, 10.13.21)
• The Kremlin’s ambassador to the EU has called on Europe to mend ties with Moscow in order to avoid future gas shortages, but insisted that Russia had nothing to do with the recent jump in prices. Vladimir Chizov, Russia’s permanent representative to the EU, said he expected Gazprom, the state-controlled exporter that supplies 35% of European gas needs, to respond swiftly to instructions from Putin to adjust output. (Financial Times,  10.10.21)
• Moscow has a 25% share of global gas exports, according to BP PLC's annual statistical report, and controls 13.3% of global oil production, including condensates, compared with 12.3% for Saudi Arabia. (Wall Street Journal, 10.13.21)
• U.S. crude rose 1.5% to $80.52 a barrel on Oct. 11, closing above $80 for the first time since late in 2014 and bringing its climb since the end of last October to 125%. (The Wall Street Journal, 10.12.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Under Secretary for Economic Affairs Jose Fernandez met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk on Oct. 15 in Washington. World Bank Group President David Malpass also met with Overchuk, who  headed Russia’s delegation at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Washington. Overchuk was also to meet with representatives of the American business community to discuss bilateral trade and investments, Russian news media cited Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, as saying. (U.S. State Department, 10.14.21, Russia Matters, 10.14.21, Marketscreener/World Bank, 10.14.21, TASS, 10.13.21)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland visited Moscow on Oct. 11-13.
  • Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that ties with the U.S. faced the threat of "new aggravations" as talks with Nuland on embassy staffing numbers on Oct. 12 ended with no breakthrough. "There is a risk of new aggravations,” he warned. "Americans are not heeding our logic or our demands," he said. "We propose the removal of all restrictions that have been introduced on both sides over the past few years," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on the same day. The U.S. State Department confirmed there was no breakthrough but said the two sides agreed to keep up lower-level talks. "We expect parity on staffing numbers, and we expect visa reciprocity," State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters. Referring to his discussions with Nuland, Ryabkov also said: "We emphasized the unacceptability of a U.S. military presence in Central Asian countries in any form whatsoever.”
  • During their talks on Oct. 13, Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov and Nuland did not discuss the issue of short- and intermediate-range missiles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Nuland and Ushakov reached some understanding regarding further contacts between the Russian and American leaders in the near future, Peskov said.
  • Nuland met Deputy Head of the Kremlin Administration Dmitry Kozak, whose remit includes the Ukraine conflict. "We had a productive discussion with Dmitry Kozak about our shared interests, along with those of Ukraine, France and Germany, in the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements and the restoration of peace, stability and Ukrainian sovereignty in Donbass," Nuland said. Kozak said after their meeting that Russia and the U.S. agreed to continue consultation on settlement in Ukraine, with consideration of approaches on the special status of Donbass, and confirmed that the Minsk Agreements remain the only basis for the settlement. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.13.21, TASS, 10.14.21)
    • Moscow agreed to lift targeted sanctions against Nuland that would have prevented her from entering Russia. In exchange, the U.S. removed one Russian official from its sanctions list. Russian media widely reported Oct. 10 that it was the acting deputy director of the Foreign Ministry’s department for nonproliferation and arms control, Konstantin Vorontsov. (RFE/RL, 10.11.21)
• Russia on Oct. 8 called on the U.S. embassy in Moscow to waive the diplomatic immunity of three of its staff, saying they were suspected of stealing. The Interior ministry's spokesman Vladimir Vasenin said that servicemen of the U.S. Marine Corps, aged 21 to 26, were caught on CCTV footage. The Foreign Ministry said that if their request was denied, the diplomats should "immediately" leave Russia. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.09.21) 
• The Biden administration on Oct. 11 announced that 32 countries had joined the United States in a pledge to reduce methane emissions, part of an effort to set new targets to slow global warming before a major U.N. climate summit in Glasgow next month. The four heaviest emitters of methane—China, India, Russia and Brazil—have not joined the pledge (The New York Times, 10.21.21)
• Biden has congratulated journalists Dmitry Muratov of Russia and Maria Ressa of the Philippines after they won the “much-deserved” Nobel Peace Prize for their work promoting "the basic principles of the free press." Muratov and Ressa “have pursued the facts -- tirelessly and fearlessly," Biden said in a statement Oct. 8. Putin said Oct. 13 that the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Russian newspaper editor Dmitry Muratov would not "shield" him from being branded a "foreign agent" if he breaks the law. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.13.21, RFE/RL, 10.09.21)
• Google has restored jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny’s election recommendation app weeks after removing it just as Russians went to the polls in nationwide parliamentary elections. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.11.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• For the fourth day in a row, Russia’s coronavirus task force registered a new record number of deaths—999—in the last 24 hours, and 32,196 new cases, its highest one-day infection tally since the pandemic began. (RFE/RL, 10.15.21)  Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• Russia on Oct. 15 launched a population census delayed several times by the coronavirus pandemic that has exacerbated the country's worsening demographic crisis. Russia’s natural population—a figure which counts registered deaths and births, excluding the effects of migration—declined by 997,000 between October 2020 and September 2021, demographer Alexei Raksha calculated. Russia’s total population of around 145 million is lower than it was when Putin came to power in 2000 despite Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, which added 2 million to Russia’s official population statistics. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.11.21, The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.15.21)
• Russia will suspend test-firing rocket engines at one of its design bureaus in the city of Voronezh until the end of the month to save oxygen supplies for COVID-19 patients, the head of the Russian space agency, Roskosmos, said. (RFE/RL, 10.10.21)
• The share of Rosatom personnel that have been vaccinated exceeded 80% last week, according to the corporation’s Oct. 11 press release. (Russia Matters, 10.11.21)
• Moscow will pay retirees 10,000 rubles ($140) to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced Oct. 13 in the latest push to stimulate Russia’s stubbornly slow immunization campaign. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.13.21)
• Russian developers of the Sputnik V vaccine have found that a one-shot version, dubbed Sputnik Light, is 70% effective against coronavirus, based on their analysis of real-world data. (Financial Times, 10.13.21)
• Some 47% of Russians would like to see Putin remain president after 2024 while 42% would not want him to stay in the Kremlin after his current term expires, according to the Levada Center’s Sept. 23-29 national poll. The share of those unwilling to have Putin remain president is the highest since 2013, according to Levada. (Russia Matters, 10.11.21)
• Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Putin, 69, refused to say whether he planned to remain in the Kremlin after 2024, when his current and second consecutive presidential term ends. "Talk about this destabilizes the situation," he told the U.S. television channel in the interview. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.14.21)
• “Our greatest concern and the main task is to increase people’s incomes. This is our priority, our number one task, and we are not going to resolve it by simple linear methods. To do this, we must ensure the growth of the economy and a change of its infrastructure. ... [W]e should resolve the two main problems—improve demography and increase people’s incomes, raise their quality of life,” Putin told CNBC. (CNBC/Kremlin.ru, 10.14.21)
• During the last election campaign, one of the topics discussed was "Smart Voting," proposed by Navalny and his supporters. However, 65% of Russians say they know nothing about this initiative, 8% know and support the initiative, 10% do not support it. Another 16% answered, “they have heard something about this initiative but do not know about its essence,” according to Levada’s Sept. 23-29 poll. (Russia Matters, 10.10.21)
• Russia's experiment in online voting is a new point of friction between the Kremlin and pro-democracy advocates, who say Putin is leading the nation down a more authoritarian path. The move to online voting, analysts say, shifts even more clout to the Kremlin, with no real options for oversight. Cole J. Harvey of Oklahoma State University, an expert in authoritarian states' electoral manipulation, said online voting was "a game changer" for Putin's regime. (The Washington Post, 10.15.21)
• Navalny says prison officials in Russia have declared him a person "who espouses an extremist and terrorist ideology," but officially no longer regard him as an escape risk. (RFE/RL, 10.11.21)
• Navalny, a group of Afghan women and a jailed Bolivian opposition politician are the final three candidates for the European Parliament's top human rights prize. (RFE/RL, 10.14.21)
• The jailed former executive director of the pro-democracy Open Russia movement, Andrei Pivovarov, has been charged with heading an "undesirable" organization, an accusation that stems from a six-year-old law that has repeatedly been used to target critical voices. (RFE/RL, 10.11.21)
• Russia has launched its first lawsuits against individual journalists and human rights activists for what it deems as noncompliance with the country’s controversial “foreign agent” law. An administrative case was opened against veteran human rights activist Lev Ponomaryov, 80, for failing to include a mandated disclaimer announcing his status as a “foreign agent” on a series of social media posts. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.12.21)
• Russia's Justice Ministry on Oct. 15 added Moscow Digital Media and RS-Balt, the legal entity of the Rosbalt media outlet, to its list of "foreign agents", the ministry's website showed. (Reuters, 10.15.21)
• A court in southern Russia has sentenced a 59-year-old disabled Jehovah's Witness to four years in prison for holding a Bible study with fellow believers. (RFE/RL, 10.12.21)
• When news emerged Oct. 12 that Sergei Zuyev, rector of the prestigious Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences—known as Shaninka—had been detained in connection with a fraud investigation against a former education official, the arrest was quickly framed by critics as the latest salvo in the Kremlin’s ongoing crackdown against dissent. (RFE/RL, 10.14.21)
• Russia’s independent Levada Center pollster said 69% of respondents disagreed with the statement that “adults have the right to enter into same-sex relationships by mutual consent.” That share has grown from 60% in 2013, when Russia adopted its controversial “gay propaganda” law that banned promotion of homosexuality among minors. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.15.21)                                                                              
• The Russian government approved a list of 42 strategic initiatives for socio-economic development of the country on Oct. 7. Their aim, according to the official announcement, is “to improve people’s quality of life and make the Russian economy more modern and flexible.” (FPRI BMB Russia, 10.13.21)
• French gastronomic bible the Michelin Guide awarded nine Moscow restaurants with its coveted stars on Oct. 14, unveiling its first lineup of recommended eateries in Russia's up-and-coming food scene. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.15.21)                                                                             

Defense and aerospace:

• "The expenditures [on for Russia's nuclear weapons complex] will increase by 14% for the provision of the nuclear weapons complex by 2024 compared to 2022. This is a very large [increase], and this will allow us to continue the purchase of the most advanced weapons systems, and this will allow us to conduct further scientific research for the creation of new types of weapons," State Duma Defense Committee head Andrei Kartapolov said. (Interfax, 10.15.21)
• The second serial Project 955A Borei-A class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine Generalissimo Suvorov (NATO reporting name: Dolgorukiy-class) currently under construction at the Sevmash Shipyard will be delivered to the Russian navy in December 2022. (TASS, 10.15.21)
• Over 5,000 troops will participate in the Combat Brotherhood 2021 drills of the CSTO in Tajikistan. (TASS, 10.15.21)
  • The Russian military will for the first time engage longer-range and more powerful flamethrowers at an exercise of the CSTO in Tajikistan, the Central Military District said. (TASS, 10.15.21)
• Over 2,000 special operators based in the Krasnodar Territory in south Russia are marching to the Opuk training range in Crimea to take part in a Southern Military District large-scale exercise, the military district’s press office said. (TASS, 10.15.21)
• Navy Commander-in-Chief Adm. Nikolai Yevmenov has introduced new chief of the Navy’s Main Staff Adm. Alexander Nosatov to top military officials at a meeting of the Navy’s Military Council. (TASS, 10.15.21)

Emergencies, security, law-enforcement and justice:

• At least 16 people were killed when an aircraft carrying skydivers crashed shortly after takeoff in the Russian region of Tatarstan. (RFE/RL, 10.10.21)
• Authorities in the Russian region of Orenburg said Oct. 10 they are offering locals free food in exchange for any bootleg alcohol they may have purchased, after 34 people died from drinking counterfeit liquor tainted with highly toxic methanol. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.11.21)
• Russia's Supreme Court has rejected the appeal of gulag historian Yury Dmitriyev, who was sentenced to 13 years in prison after being found guilty of sexually abusing his foster daughter. The decision was announced on the court's website. (RFE/RL, 10.13.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The rival sides in the Libyan conflict signed an initial deal on the pullout of foreign fighters and mercenaries from the war-torn country, U.N. mediators said. The U.N. mission said on Oct. 9 that a 10-member joint military commission, with five representatives from each side, signed a “gradual and balanced” withdrawal deal at the end of three-day talks facilitated by the U.N. in Geneva. A U.N. official has estimated there have been at least 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries in Libya over recent years, including Russians, Syrians, Sudanese and Chadians. (RFE/RL, 10.10.21)
• The European Council has announced sanctions against eight individuals who are "responsible for enforcing Russian law" in occupied Crimea in a move that comes as senior EU officials travel to Kyiv for a major EU-Ukraine summit. The additions bring the total number of individuals hit with punishments over Russia's occupation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula to 185, along with 48 companies or other legal entities. It said the eight, who will be publicly named later in an official journal, include "judges, prosecutors and security officers." (RFE/RL, 10.11.21)
• Russia on Oct. 13 appointed a staunch supporter of Moscow's annexation of Crimea as its ambassador to the Cape Verde Islands, a move observers say shows her fall from the Kremlin's favor. Natalya Poklonskaya became the top prosecutor for Crimea after breaking with authorities in Kyiv following Moscow's takeover of the peninsula in 2014. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.13.21)
• Russia’s state-controlled oil giant Rosneft has sold a 5% stake in an ambitious Arctic oil project to two commodity trading houses based in Switzerland and Singapore. Rosneft’s mega Vostok Oil project will tap into Russia’s vast hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic north and is set to pump more than 700 million barrels of oil a year by 2030. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.14.21)
• A Russian Soyuz rocket on Oct. 14 blasted into space carrying 36 new satellites from British operator OneWeb, which aims to provide broadband internet everywhere in the world. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.14.21)
• Russia’s ultrafast grocery delivery service Yango Deli that can get goods to customers in under 15 minutes has launched in London, the company said in a press release Oct. 14. (bne IntelliNews, 10.15.21)
• Millions in developing nations from Latin America to the Middle East are waiting for more doses of Sputnik V after manufacturing woes and other issues have created huge gaps in vaccination campaigns. One firm estimates that Russia has only exported 4.8% of the roughly 1 billion doses it promised. The head of the Russian state-controlled fund that invested in the vaccine insisted Oct. 13 the supply problems have been resolved. (AP, 10.15.21)
• The World Anti-Doping Agency has revoked the right of a Russian laboratory to carry out blood sample analysis after it failed to comply with laboratory standards and ethics. (RFE/RL, 10.09.21)

Ukraine:

• Russia, France and Germany said Oct. 11 that their foreign ministers could soon meet to discuss the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine. Moscow said Putin, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel instructed the ministers to work toward a meeting during a joint telephone call Oct. 11. France's presidency said that the meeting should involve Ukraine. The leaders also agreed to consider organizing a summit, the Russian and German statements said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.12.21)
• Russia cannot negotiate with the “vassal” leadership of Ukraine, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in an expletive-laden article published Oct. 11—pushing back against Ukraine’s attempts to secure a meeting with Putin. Writing in the Kommersant business daily, Medvedev criticized Zelenskiy as “weak,” “ignorant” and “unreliable”—without referring to him by name—and attacked the country’s “complete dependence” on the U.S. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.11.21)
• The 23^rd EU-Ukraine summit took place Oct. 12. During the summit, the parties:
  • signed the Common Aviation Area Agreement.
  • agreed on further cooperation in the fight against cyber attacks.
  • signed a joint statement that:
    • “noted the importance of further enhancing cooperation in the area of Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) and of Ukraine’s increased convergence with Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). ... The EU will explore possibilities to further support Ukraine’s resilience, including in the area of professional military education.”
    • “Underlin[ed] Russia's responsibility as a party to the conflict...we reiterated our call on Russia to immediately stop fueling the conflict by providing financial and military support to the armed formations it backs and to withdraw the Russian military troops and materiel at the eastern border of Ukraine and on the Crimean peninsula.”
    • “Acknowledged the European aspirations of Ukraine and welcomed its European choice.”  (RFE/RL, 10.11.21, Interfax, 10.12.21, EU, 10.12.21)
• The U.K. will supply missile systems and military ships to Ukraine and will share relevant technologies with Ukrainian shipyards, Ukrainian Ambassador in London Vadym Prystaiko said. (Interfax, 10.15.21)
• The U.S. and the EU have expressed frustration with Ukraine as the nation continues to drag its feet on electing the chief of a unit responsible for prosecuting corrupt officials. On Oct. 9, Ukraine again failed to move forward with the process for choosing the next head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) after several members of the selection committee did not show up, preventing a quorum. (RFE/RL, 10.09.21)
• Ukrainian prosecutors said they had broadened a criminal investigation into pro-Russian lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk, accusing him of colluding to finance separatist forces in the eastern Donbass region. (RFE/RL, 10.08.21)
• Oral arguments begin in the international Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on Oct. 11 in the latest round of a long-running dispute over Russia's seizure of three Ukrainian navy vessels in the Kerch Strait in 2018. (RFE/RL, 10.11.21)
• Ukraine's state-owned export-import bank has dismissed its chairman Yevhen Metsher after a court ordered him to be put under nighttime house arrest while the authorities probe a confrontation with RFE/RL investigative reporters last week. (RFE/RL, 10.11.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• In a statement reported by Russia’s Interfax News Agency, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko insisted that “all necessary assistance will be provided to Tajikistan if required, both within the Collective Security Treaty Organization [a Russian-led military alliance] framework and bilaterally.” (The National Interest, 10.12.21)
• Though both the Chinese and Tajik governments officially deny the existence of the base and Chinese personnel, a visit by an RFE/RL journalist near the compound and the surrounding area near the Wakhan Corridor not far from Tajikistan’s mountainous border with northeastern Afghanistan saw Beijing’s first military footprint in Central Asia in full swing as it finds itself at a crossroads following the Taliban’s August takeover of Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 05.14.21)
• Kyrgyzstan's president has named a new cabinet chairman in an effort to jump-start the country in the midst of an economic malaise brought on partly by the pandemic. Japarov named Akylbek Japarov (no relation) to a new prime minister-like post that's now called the chairman of the cabinet of ministers. Japarov had served as deputy prime minister and finance and economy minister since June. (RFE/RL, 10.12.21)
• An estimated 2,000 people remain imprisoned in Uzbekistan for peacefully practicing their religious beliefs, a new report by the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom has found. (RFE/RL, 10.15.21)
• Human rights groups say two Turkmen activists and a visitor were attacked by unknown assailants as they left the offices of a Turkic culture organization in Istanbul on Oct. 11. (RFE/RL, 10.12.21)
• Moldova is requesting emergency gas supplies from EU countries after Russian state-controlled exporter Gazprom slashed its shipments to the country amid a wider European gas crunch. Supply to Moldova has fallen by around one-third while prices have shot up from $550 per thousand cubic meters last month to $790 this month—nearly five times the average that the country paid last year. The prices are “not justified and not realistic for Moldova,” Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu said Oct. 11. (Financial Times, 10.11.21)
• Belarus's consulate in New York City will close on Oct. 21 at the request of the United States. The consulate has already stopped answering the phone and accepting and processing documents sent by mail. Since Oct. 8 documents received have been transferred to the embassy. Access to the consulate will not be possible after Oct. 15. (RFE/RL, 10.12.21)
• The German Federal Police said Oct. 13 that the flow of migrants arriving via Poland and Belarus has spiked with more than 4,300 illegal entrants to the country since August, amid a long-running crisis in which the EU has accused Minsk of "weaponizing" refugees. (RFE/RL, 10.13.21)
• Belarusians subscribing to banned media outlets on social media will themselves be recognized as “extremist” under a new law, authorities said in an announcement disputed by independent Telegram channels. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.14.21)
• Thousands of people have gathered in the center of the Georgian capital demanding the release of jailed former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose detention earlier this month deepened a protracted political crisis in the South Caucasus country. Saakashvili needs treatment in hospital as his condition is worsening, his doctor said in an Oct. 10 television interview. (RFE/RL, 10.10.21, RFE/RL, 10.14.21)
• One Azerbaijani soldier has been killed and six Armenian servicemen wounded in Nagorno-Karabakh in skirmishes reported late on Oct. 14. (RFE/RL, 10.15.21)
• International mediators say they are ready to facilitate a meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia as the two Caucasus nations attempt to end their long-standing conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The co-chairs of the Minsk Group, under the auspices of the OSCE, said in an Oct. 8 statement that they have taken “positive note” of statements by leaders of the two countries for their “readiness in principle to meet with each other” to seek a settlement. (RFE/RL, 10.09.21)
• Armenia accused Azerbaijan of serious human rights violations as the two Caucasus nations who fought a six-week war last year faced off at the U.N. court in The Hague Oct. 14. Armenian representative Yeghishe Kirakosian made the accusation as a hearing opened at the International Court of Justice into a request by Armenia for judges to impose urgent interim measures to prevent Azerbaijan breaching an international convention to stamp out ethnic discrimination. (RFE/RL, 10.14.21)
• Azerbaijan and Iran have agreed to resolve their diplomatic crisis through dialogue amid tensions that erupted last month over exercises near their shared border and a dispute over a possible Israeli military presence in Azerbaijan. Both sides announced the de-escalation effort on Oct. 13 after they said Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had spoken by phone the previous evening. (RFE/RL, 10.13.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• "The European gas crisis has shown the extreme leverage that Russia has over Europe and beyond," said Thierry Bros, an energy expert and professor at Sciences Po Paris. "Putin is the only one who could prevent blackouts in Europe because Russia has spare capacity. This is a position of power." (Wall Street Journal, 10.13.21)