This Week’s Highlights:

• In what Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov identified as the 60^th sanctions package since 2011, the U.S. on Sept. 20 blacklisted 33 Russian nationals and three entities and also imposed sanctions on the Chinese military for buying fighter jets and missile systems from Russia, Reuters and AP report.
• The Russian Defense Ministry says Israel gave Russia only a minute’s warning before launching the attack on Syrian targets that resulted in the downing of a Russian surveillance plane by Syrian air defenses, killing 15 Russian servicemen, according to the Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered to send Israel's air force commander to Moscow to deliver information about the Israeli military operation above Syria, the Wall Street Journal reports. The Israeli delegation traveled to Moscow to brief about the incident, and an Israeli military official said that Israel had provided Moscow with proof it was not responsible for the accident, according to Reuters.
• “It’s not in our interest to withdraw from the INF Treaty. I don’t think that helps solve the Russia problem,” U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, told Trump officials, Newsweek reports.
• The White House has authorized offensive cyber operations against U.S. adversaries, in line with a new policy that eases the rules on the use of digital weapons to protect the nation, according to The Washington Post.
• The Russian social media campaign to influence American voters included 2,700 fake Facebook accounts, 80,000 posts and an eventual audience of 126 million Americans on Facebook alone. That was not far short of the 137 million people who would vote in the 2016 presidential election, the New York Times reports.
• U.S. President Donald Trump on Sept. 21 delayed his own order to declassify and release documents from the FBI’s Russia investigation, as the Justice Department and U.S. allies have raised security concerns about their disclosure. Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort is now cooperating with special counsel Robert Mueller, but Trump says he’s not worried about what Manafort will say, Reuters reports.
• Russia is only three years away from maximizing its oil extraction output before costs and taxes drive down production, according to The Moscow Times.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• “In the 1990s and 2000s, we [the U.S. and Russia] actively cooperated in the field of non-proliferation,” U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry told Kommersant while in Moscow. “For example, we monitored movement of nuclear materials. And our interests in this sphere still coincide,” Perry was quoted in the Sept. 17 issue of Kommersant as saying. (Russia Matters, 09.17.18)
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Russian nuclear fuel manufacturer Tenex have signed a contract for the transport of low-enriched uranium (LEU) and equipment through Russian territory to and from the IAEA LEU bank in Kazakhstan. (World Nuclear News, 09.18.18)
• Several countries submitted their 2017 civilian plutonium declarations to the IAEA, but the U.S., China, U.K., Russia and France have not done so yet, according to the IPFM Blog. Japan reported owning a total of 47.3 tons of plutonium. Germany reported having no separated plutonium. Belgium declared no separated plutonium in storage or at reprocessing plants and "less than 50” kilograms of separated plutonium in other categories. Switzerland reported having less than 2 kilograms of plutonium. (IPFM/Russia Matters, 09.19.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The U.S. and Russia reached an impasse during a U.N. Security Council debate Sept. 17 on North Korea, threatening to upset a tenuous consensus on international efforts to pressure Pyongyang with economic sanctions days before world leaders gather for an annual meeting in New York. (Wall Street Journal, 09.17.18)
• North Korea's Kim Jong Un wants a second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump soon to hasten denuclearization, but a key goal is declaring an end this year to the 1950-53 Korean War, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said Sept. 20. (Reuters, 09.21.18)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• Nations that struck the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, except for the U.S., will meet on Sept. 24 in New York in what many diplomats fear may prove a quixotic effort to keep the agreement alive after U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports resume in November. (Reuters, 09.21.18)
• Iran dismissed a U.S. offer of negotiations on Sept. 20, saying Washington had violated the terms of the last big deal they agreed, the 2015 nuclear accord. The U.S. special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, said on Sept. 19 that Washington now wanted to negotiate a treaty that included Tehran's ballistic missile program and its regional behavior. (Reuters, 09.20.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump will address the U.N. General Assembly's 193 member nations at the official opening on Sept. 25 and the next day chair a Security Council meeting focusing on Iran, nonproliferation and chemical weapons attacks in Syria and the Skripal poisoning Britain. (RFE/RL, 09.21.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. President Donald Trump has said his administration was considering a request for a permanent U.S. military presence in Poland. Trump made the comments on Sept.18 before a meeting at the White House with Polish President Andrzej Duda. Poland has requested the deployment several times and has offered up to $2 billion in funding for a base. U.S. forces currently serve in Poland as part of NATO's back-to-back rotation program. (RFE/RL, 09.19.18)
• The U.S. Air Force has determined it will need a nearly 25 percent boost in combat squadrons in order to support a major war with another great power such as China or Russia, signaling the largest potential increase in air power for the U.S. since the end of the Cold War. (Foreign Policy, 09.17.18)
• While in Macedonia, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis warned that Russia is actively working against a referendum in Macedonia that would clear the way for the Balkan nation to join NATO, saying Russia was attempting to use its money and influence to build opposition to the upcoming referendum on changing the former Yugoslav republic’s name. (Wall Street Journal, 09.17.18, RFE/RL, 09.17.18)
• British and French military jets were scrambled to investigate suspected Russian fighter aircraft flying over the North Sea on Sept. 20. Col. Cyrille Duvivier, a spokesman for the French Air Force, said one or several Russian planes were detected and that the actions were not hostile. (Reuters, 09.20.18)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Arms control:

• "Russia continues to violate a series of arms control obligations that undermine the trust of the United States can place in treaties, including some that have served U.S. and allied security interests for years," U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Andrea Thomson said in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Thompson noted that both the U.S. and Russia had met their New START limitations by February 2018, but that “no decision has been made at this time” about whether to extend the treaty. The Trump administration planned to use arms control treaties as leverage to pressure Russia, Thompson noted, adding that Moscow's behavior casts doubt on whether the country wants to preserve the INF Treaty. "The bottom line is that arms control with Russia is troubled because the Russian Federation apparently believes it need only abide by the agreements that suit it," U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy David Trachtenberg said at the hearings. (Voice of America, 09.18.18, Newsweek, 09.18.18)
  • “It’s not in our interest to withdraw from the INF Treaty. I don’t think that helps solve the Russia problem,” U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, told Trump officials. “What other options are being considered to try to push the Russians to again comply with the INF Treaty?” (Newsweek, 09.18.18)
  • During the hearings, senators grilled members of the Trump administration to uncover what the U.S. leader discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the summit in Helsinki in July, particularly on nuclear arms control. (Newsweek, 09.18.18)
• The U.S. government certified Russia’s new Tu-214 surveillance plane as fit for conducting missions under the Open Skies treaty over the U.S, a U.S. State Department official told TASS. (Russia Matters, 09.18.18)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that 15 of its personnel aboard the Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft were killed in friendly fire from Syrian anti-aircraft systems late Sept. 17. It accused Israel on Sept. 18 of putting the plane in danger of being caught in the crossfire of Israeli airstrikes and Syrian anti-aircraft systems. (The Moscow Times, 09.18.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters in Moscow on Sept. 18: "Of course, we have yet to look into this seriously. And our attitude toward this tragedy is set out in a Russian Defense Ministry statement, which got my full approval." Putin described the downing as “like a chain of tragic accidental circumstances,” in a measured statement that appeared to step back from earlier threats of direct retaliation against Israel made by his defense ministry. “Regarding our responses: they will be primarily aimed at additional security for our servicemen and our facilities in the Syrian Arab Republic,” he added. Putin drew a distinction between the downing of a Russian fighter plane by Turkey in 2015, which he condemned at the time as a ''stab in the back delivered by the accomplices of terrorists,'' and the Sept. 17 accident, ''because an Israeli plane didn't shoot our plane down.'' (Financial Times, 09.18.18, The Washington Post, 09.18.18), New York Times 09.18.18)
  • The Russian military did not receive a warning about the Israeli air force's operation in due time, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told his Israeli counterpart, Avigdor Lieberman, over the phone. "Although we have an agreement with Israel on the prevention of dangerous incidents, the command of the Russian contingent was notified a minute before Israeli F-16 delivered the strike," the Russian Defense Ministry quoted Shoigu as saying. (Interfax, 09.18.18)
  • Russia's Defense Ministry said Israel gave Russia only a minute's warning before launching the attack. "Russia reserves the right to take appropriate measures against hostile actions by Israel," a ministry spokesman, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, told reporters. He said that "the Ilyushin-20, its reflective surface being far greater than that of an F-16, was downed by a missile launched with the S-200 system.” “As a result of the Israeli military's irresponsible actions, 15 Russian servicemen died," he said "(The Washington Post, 09.18.18, TASS, 09.18.18, Wall Street Journal, 09.18.18)
  • "Russia's response to such actions of Israel should be prompt and tough," Russian State Duma Defense Committee First Deputy Chairman Alexander Sherin told Interfax on Sept. 18. "Israeli aircraft must not be allowed to freely take off from their airfields for striking on Syria," he said. "Whenever a bandit is breaking into your house and trying to kill your wife and children, your response should be tough; no one will keep drinking tea in the kitchen under such circumstances," he said. (Interfax, 09.18.18)
  • Israel intentionally put Russia’s Il-20 under fire launched by Syrian air defenses to hamper ally relations between Moscow and Damascus, but Russia assessed the situation rationally, said Viktor Bondarev, head of the Federation Council Committee for Defense and Security, who previously headed the Russian air force. (TASS, 09.18.18)
  • Eight Russian navy ships, motorboats and support vessels are taking part in the search for the Il-20 that crashed off Syria's coast, the Russian Defense Ministry said. (Interfax, 09.18.18)
  • Israel said it targeted a Syrian Armed Forces facility in Latakia on Sept. 18, where systems to manufacture lethal weapons were about to be transferred to Hezbollah, a political and militia group in Lebanon, on Iran's behalf. “Israel holds the Assad regime, whose military shot down the Russian plane, fully responsible for this incident,” the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a Twitter statement. The IDF said its fighter jets had targeted a Syrian facility overnight that it said was about to transfer weapons to Lebanon’s Hezbollah on behalf of Iran, another key ally of the Syrian regime. It said the Israeli jets “were already within Israeli airspace” when Russia’s Il-20 was hit. The IDF said Syrian anti-aircraft batteries had fired “indiscriminately” in response to Israeli airstrikes and “did not bother” to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air. Israel said on Sept. 20 it would not halt strikes on Syria but would do more to "deconflict" them with Russian forces. (The Moscow Times, 09.18.18, Wall Street Journal, 09.18.18, Reuters, 09.21.18)
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, blamed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for the downed plane, but expressed regret for the loss of life, a statement from the prime minister's office said: "Prime Minister Netanyahu noted the importance of the continued security coordination between Israel and Russia that has managed to prevent many casualties on both sides in the last three years." Netanyahu offered to send Israel's air force commander to Moscow to deliver information about the Israeli military operation above Syria, both countries said. The Israeli delegation including its air force chief traveled to Moscow to brief about the incident, and an Israeli military official said on Sept. 21 that Israel had provided Moscow with proof it was not responsible for the downing of the plane. "We proved how the Syrian reckless anti-air fire was the direct cause of hitting the Russian aircraft," said the official. "They fired quite recklessly and irresponsibly and unprofessionally into the air long after our planes were no longer there." (Wall Street Journal, 09.18.18, Reuters, 09.21.18)
  • U.S. officials expressed sorrow over the downing of a Russian military surveillance plane off the Syrian coast and said it would not affect the U.S. campaign against Islamic State fighters. (RFE/RL, 09.19.18)
  • The Kremlin said on Sept. 20 it had received a telegram from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in which he expressed his condolences over a Russian military plane being downed near Syria earlier this week. (Reuters, 09.20.18)
• After four and a half hours of talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two men said that all terror groups and heavy weaponry would be expelled from a 15-20 kilometer zone by Oct. 15, and that troops from both countries would patrol the area. Kerim Has, an analyst of Turkish-Russian relations at Moscow State University, described the deal as “very risky” for Turkey. “Turkey became a de facto guarantor for the disarmament of radical groups in Idlib. If by Oct. 15, Turkey couldn’t achieve this aim, what will happen next?” he said. (Financial Times, 09.17.18)
  • Russia's defense minister said on Sept. 17 that Syria would refrain from launching an offensive on Idlib Province, the last major rebel stronghold, after the presidents of Russia and Turkey agreed to establish a ''demilitarized zone'' there to avert a potentially catastrophic military confrontation. At least 3 million Syrian civilians and 30,000 insurgent fighters, including al-Qaeda-linked jihadists, have been cornered into Idlib Province, the last significant piece of territory Assad does not control. Turkey on Sept. 21 said that steps to remove members of the "moderate opposition" from Syria's Idlib region were unacceptable. (New York Times, 09.17.18, Reuters, 09.21.18)
  • Tehran, Damascus and Syrian opposition groups have welcomed an agreement between Russia and Turkey to avert an assault on Syria's last major rebel stronghold in the northwestern province of Idlib. A Syrian Foreign Ministry official said the deal reached by the Russian and Turkish presidents on Sept. 17 to create a demilitarized buffer zone in Idlib to separate government and rebel forces was the result of “intense discussions" between Damascus and Moscow, according to Syria’s state media. Russia and Turkey told a weekly meeting of the U.N. Syria humanitarian taskforce in Geneva on Sept. 20 that they were still working out the details of their plan to avert a major battle in Idlib province but were optimistic. (RFE/RL, 09.18.18, Reuters, 09.20.18)
  • Turkey vowed to scale up its military presence in Idlib on Sept. 18 as it faced the difficult task of enforcing a deal to stave off an assault on Syria’s last opposition bastion. A Turkish official said Sept. 21 that Turkey will soon conduct joint patrols with U.S. forces in the strategic northern Syrian town of Manbij, once a stronghold of the Islamic State group. (Financial Times, 09.18.18, AP, 09.21.18)
  • Capt. Naji Mustafa, a spokesman for the biggest rebel coalition in Idlib, the National Liberation Front, reiterated the rebels' determination not to allow the Assad regime to have any role in Idlb. The rebels remain unconvinced that Russia and Syria will abide by the agreement, he said. "Right now our main concern is avoiding a Russian double-cross," he said. "They have not abided by agreements in the past, and we don't trust the Russians." (The Washington Post, 09.18.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel by phone on Sept. 19 about the deal reached between Turkey and Russia on the rebel-held Syrian region of Idlib, the Kremlin said. (Reuters, 09.19.18)
• The foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and Iran will hold a meeting in New York to discuss Syria, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was quoted as saying on Sept. 21. (Reuters, 09.21.18)
• Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sept. 21 that U.S. control over the eastern bank of the Euphrates river posed the main threat to Syria's territorial integrity, Interfax reported. (Reuters, 09.21.18)
• Kurdish-led authorities controlling northeastern Syria will not be able to hold foreign Islamic State fighters indefinitely, and their home countries should take them back, said Abdulkarim Omar, joint head of foreign relations in the Kurdish-led area. He told journalists its administration was holding around 500 foreign fighters and 500 family members from around 40 countries. (Reuters, 09.20.18)
• Russian Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev said Sept. 20 that 2,180 internally displaced Syrians and 937 refugees have come home during the past week. (AP, 09.20.18)

Cyber security:

• The White House has “authorized offensive cyber operations” against U.S. adversaries, in line with a new policy that eases the rules on the use of digital weapons to protect the nation, national security adviser John Bolton said Thursday. (The Washington Post, 09.20.18)
• U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden said in a Sept. 19 letter to Senate leaders that his office discovered that "at least one major technology company" has warned an unspecified number of senators and aides that their personal email accounts were "targeted by foreign government hackers." Google spokesman Aaron Stein confirmed that his company had notified the Senate targets. Neither Stein nor Wyden provided any indication as to who might be behind the attempted break-ins, whether they targeted lawmakers from both political parties or their timing, though a Senate staffer said they occurred "in the last few weeks or months." (AP, 09.20.18)
• Britain is significantly increasing its ability to wage war in cyberspace with the creation of a new offensive cyber force of up to 2,000 personnel. (Reuters, 09.20.18)
• Facebook on Sept. 19 said it would team with two U.S. non-profits, the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, to slow the global spread of misinformation that could influence elections, acknowledging that fake news sites were still read by millions. (Reuters, 09.19.18)

Elections interference:

• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sept. 19 he is not worried about what his former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, who is cooperating with the U.S. special counsel's probe into Russian election meddling, will tell prosecutors, as long as he is truthful. (Reuters, 09.19.18)
• Michael Cohen, U.S. President Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer, has been interviewed repeatedly in the past month by prosecutors in the special counsel investigation into whether the Trump campaign conspired with Russian operatives. Cohen said that he is providing "critical information" as part of Mueller's investigation. (New York Times, 09.20.18, AP, 09.20.18)
• A U.S. federal judge on Sept. 19 set former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn's sentencing for Dec. 18. (AP, 09.19.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his attacks on Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Sept. 18, offering a scathing assessment of his performance on the job and in his confirmation hearing. "I'm not happy at the border, I'm not happy with numerous things, not just this," Trump said, referring to the Russia investigation. Trump also said he regrets not firing James Comey as FBI director sooner. (The Washington Post, 09.19.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump on Sept. 21 delayed his own order to declassify and release documents from the FBI’s Russia investigation, saying the Justice Department and U.S. allies have raised security concerns about their disclosure. The declassification of the documents, including portions of a secret court order to surveil former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, would ensure that “really bad things” at the FBI are exposed, Trump had said earlier. (AP, 09.21.18, The Washington Post, 09.18.18, AP, 09.18.18)
• The Maltese professor who Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos met with in London in March 2016, Joseph Mifsud, has been identified by FBI agents as a likely cutout for Russian intelligence, sent to establish contact with Papadopoulos and possibly get information about the direction of the Trump campaign. He disappeared after his name surfaced in October 2017, and his whereabouts is unknown. At one point he changed his WhatsApp status to a simple, if cryptic, message: “Alive.” (New York Times, 09.20.18)
  • Mifsud had arranged an email introduction between Papadopoulos and a Russian foreign ministry official. Papadopoulos also exchanged emails with Olga Polonskaya, a woman claiming to be Putin’s niece, who he had met along with Mifsud. They discussed a possible meeting between Putin and Trump. Over time, Papadopoulos came to question whether the messages were actually from Polonskaya. The woman he had met in the cafe barely spoke English. The emails he received were in nearly perfect English. (New York Times, 09.20.18)
  • In late April 2016, Trump said the U.S. and Russia should look for areas of mutual interest. “That’s the signal to meet,” Papadopoulos wrote in an email to his Russian foreign ministry contact that evening, meaning that Trump’s comments suggested he might be interested in meeting Putin.  A day earlier, Mifsud had told Papadopoulos about a possible gift from Moscow: thousands of hacked emails that might damage Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. But there was no evidence that Papadopoulos passed the information along to anyone inside the Trump circle. (New York Times, 09.20.18)
• There remains an alternative explanation to the collusion theory: that the Trump aides, far from certain their candidate would win, were happy to meet the Russians because they thought it might lead to moneymaking deals after the election. (New York Times, 09.20.18)
• Hitting nine states in three weeks in summer 2014, Anna Bogacheva and Aleksandra Krylova were supposed to “gather intelligence” to help them mimic Americans on Facebook and Twitter. Bogacheva and Krylova had been dispatched by their employer, an online propaganda factory in St. Petersburg, to prepare to influence American voters. At that point, according to a Russian document cited by special counsel Robert Mueller, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions for 2016 were already explicit: to “spread distrust toward the candidates and the political system in general.” (New York Times, 09.20.18)
• Even by the vertiginous standards of social media, the reach of Russia’s effort was impressive: 2,700 fake Facebook accounts, 80,000 posts, many of them elaborate images with catchy slogans, and an eventual audience of 126 million Americans on Facebook alone. That was not far short of the 137 million people who would vote in the 2016 presidential election. (New York Times, 09.20.18)
  • On Instagram, 170 ersatz Russian accounts posted 120,000 times and reached about 20 million people. Twitter reported that in the 10 weeks before the election some 3,814 Internet Research Agency accounts interacted with 1.4 million people—and that another 50,258 automated “bot” accounts that the company judged to be Russia-linked tweeted about the election. The trolls created at least two podcasts, posted Vine videos, blogged on Tumblr, sought donations via PayPal and even exploited the Pokémon Go craze. (New York Times, 09.20.18)
• By July 2018, one poll showed that 45 percent of Americans disapproved of how special counsel Robert Mueller was handling the Russia investigation, a 14-point increase from January. The shift was even more dramatic among Republican voters: from 49 percent to 78 percent. More recent polls, conducted since the indictment of the GRU officers and former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort’s conviction, have shown a reversal of the trend. (New York Times, 09.20.18)
• Russian diplomats devised a plan last year with people close to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to help him flee the U.K., the Guardian has learned. One ultimate destination, multiple sources have said, was Russia, where Assange would not be at risk of extradition to the U.S. The plan was abandoned after it was deemed too risky. (The Guardian, 09.21.18)

Energy exports:

• Russia is only three years away from maximizing oil extraction output before costs and taxes drive down production, Russia’s energy minister has warned. “We expect about 553 million [metric] tons of oil production in 2018. We will reach a peak of 570 million tons in 2021,” Interfax quoted Energy Minister Alexander Novak as saying. (The Moscow Times, 09.19.18)
• Russia's crude production has jumped to a new post-Soviet record, according to a government official. The country's oil output is currently fluctuating between 1.54 million and 1.55 million tons a day, driven mainly by state-run giant Rosneft. That equates to 11.29 million to 11.36 million barrels a day, beating the previous record of 11.25 million barrels a day set in October 2016 before Russia agreed with OPEC to cut production. (Bloomberg, 09.20.18)
• OPEC and its Russia-led counterparts meet this weekend, as international oil prices flirt with multiyear highs, to gauge whether they need to boost output amid U.S. sanctions on Iran. Oil traders are closely watching the gathering, which could help solidify Russia’s new status as oil-market kingpin. (Wall Street Journal, 09.21.18, Wall Street Journal, 09.21.18)
• Russia’s oil and gas companies are simultaneously enjoying record production and the highest prices ever in the local currency. An index of the companies this month hit an all-time high in rubles and reached levels not seen since June 2014 in dollars. Russian crude producers are raking in cash as the rally in dollar-denominated oil prices is amplified by a weakening ruble, helping the industry achieve record-breaking revenues and shrink debts. (Bloomberg, 09.21.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

• Russia is working on ways to lower its dependence on the U.S. and the dollar system, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sept. 21, addressing the issue of U.S. sanctions. (Reuters, 09.21.18)

Other bilateral issues:

• The U.S. on Sept. 20 blacklisted 33 Russian nationals and three entities and also imposed sanctions on the Chinese military for buying fighter jets and missile systems from Russia in a new round of sanctions for the Russian interference in the 2016 election. Russia on Sept. 21 called the new sanctions misguided, saying Washington's habit of using sanctions against Moscow risked undermining global stability and was part of a dangerous game. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in a statement that the latest wave of restrictions was the 60th sanctions package since 2011. (AP, 09.21.18, Reuters, 09.21.18)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sept. 21 that by imposing sanctions on buyers of Russian weapons, and on people associated with the Russian military, the U.S. is trying to squeeze out competitors in the global arms trade. Peskov called the new sanctions hostile and unpredictable. He did not say how Russia would respond, but suggested that Moscow would respond at some point, saying "nobody should doubt that we have adhered and will continue to adhere to the principle of reciprocity." (Reuters, 09.21.18, RFE/RL, 09.21.18)
  • Among those targeted by the sanctions were the 12 military intelligence officers who had been indicted by special counsel Robert Mueller earlier this year, as well as Yevgeny Prigozhin, colloquially as “Putin’s chef,” and his catering companies and a private military company known as PMC Wagner. Many of those named have also been sanctioned or blacklisted previously, under different designations, meaning that the new measures were unlikely to have any significant effect. (RFE/RL, 09.20.18)
• Shares in Russian aluminum producer Rusal jumped as much as 17 percent on Sept. 17 after the U.S. Treasury said it would allow the company to negotiate some new contracts, easing fears over its future output and raising hopes for a longer-term reprieve from sanctions.  (Financial Times, 09.17.18)
• During a period of myriad accounts about Russia’s attempts to disrupt the last election, the percentage of Republicans who view Russian President Vladimir Putin favorably has more than doubled (from 11 percent to 25 percent), according to a poll by the Pew Research Center. Democrats are now far more likely than Republicans to see Russia as a threat. An October 2017 poll showed that 63 percent of Democrats and just 38 percent of Republicans said they saw “Russia’s power and influence” as a significant threat to the U.S. (New York Times, 09.20.18)
• When Western leaders planned a coordinated response to the poisoning of former Russian agent Sergei Skripal in Britain, U.S. President Donald Trump wanted more assurances that Russia was behind it, according to Greg Miller's book, "The Apprentice.” He also wavered even after the U.S. had agreed to expel 60 suspected Russian operatives. (The Washington Post, 09.18.18)
• Greg Miller's book, "The Apprentice,” cites White House officials saying Russian President Vladimir Putin whispered to U.S. President Donald Trump during their summit in Helsinki that the people around him are thwarting their efforts to build a relationship. (The Washington Post, 09.18.18)
• Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs and the great-granddaughter of the Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev, said that what Russia pulled off for the 2016 U.S. elections would have been the envy of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s predecessors: puncturing the American sense of superiority and insisting on Russia’s power and place in the world. “This operation was to show the Americans—that you bastards are just as screwed up as the rest of us,” Khrushcheva said. “Putin fulfilled the dream of every Soviet leader—to stick it to the United States. I think this will be studied by the KGB’s successors for a very long time.” (New York Times, 09.20.18)
• Michael McFaul, ambassador to Russia during the Obama administration, said that despite the country’s relative economic and military weakness, Russian President Vladimir Putin had often played a poor hand deftly. “Across many dimensions, Putin is using all kinds of instruments of power,” he said. “It feels to me,” the former ambassador said, “like he’s winning and we’re losing.” (New York Times, 09.20.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s top elections official has called for new elections in the Primorye region after investigating allegations that local precincts had rigged the vote in favor of a Kremlin-backed incumbent. During a second round of gubernatorial elections in the region on Sept. 16, Andrei Tarasenko of the ruling United Russia party surged in the polls after having consistently trailed his challenger from the Communist Party, Andrei Ishchenko. (The Moscow Times, 09.19.18)
• Russian civil servants could see a windfall of up to $10 billion in the next three years under a budget proposal designed to “stimulate” government workers. (The Moscow Times, 09.21.18)
• The Russian government reportedly plans to invest 1.6 trillion rubles ($24 billion) on infrastructure including new airports and highways over the next three years. (The Moscow Times, 09.19.18)
• Russia’s economic growth slowed to 1.0 percent in August from a year earlier, slowing from 1.8 percent in July, Russia’s economy ministry said Sept. 20. (Reuters, 09.20.18)
• Speaking about the coming approval of macroeconomic forecast for the next budgetary three-year plan and through 2024, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev did not rule out the expansion of trade wars and sanctions pressure on Russia in the next six years. (TASS, 09.20.18)
• The Trump administration is helping Russian President Vladimir Putin achieve a goal that’s eluded him for almost two decades—getting Russia’s billionaires to start repatriating some of their assets. Tycoons and their executives say the rush to move assets beyond the reach of the U.S. Treasury started with the biggest enterprises in April, and now the trend is accelerating, spurred by the threat of even more draconian measures over Russia’s alleged election meddling and nerve-agent attack in England. (Bloomberg, 09.21.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has awarded Chechnya ownership of the Chechenneftekhimprom state-owned company that controls the republic’s oil-refining and petrochemical industry that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has long sought to acquire. (The Moscow Times, 09.19.18)
• Russia is considering supporting sanctions-hit Russian Machines, owned by Oleg Deripaska, which owns 61 percent of vehicle maker GAZ, by restricting government purchases from its rivals in the country. (Reuters, 09.20.18)
• An increasing number of civil activists, politicians and journalists have been assaulted in Russia since 2015, according to a report that sounds the alarm on the normalization of state-sanctioned violence. More than 200 attacks or threats of attack were registered in 2014-2018, the Agora human rights group said in its report on political violence published Sept. 21. (The Moscow Times, 09.21.18)
• A group of Russian activists, “Beware of Them,” has launched an online campaign to identify law-enforcement officers involved in a violent crackdown on anti-government protesters during the Sept. 9 protests against government plans to raise the retirement age. Russian anti-extremism police have reportedly questioned two high school students over taking part in the anti-government demonstrations. (The Moscow Times, 09.20.18, The Moscow Times, 09.21.18)
• Investigators have opened a probe into reports of violent ethnic clashes this week in the Caucasus republic of Kabardino-Balkaria over a disputed 18th-century battle. Reports said the violence spread from the Balkar village of Kendelen to two nearby villages on Sept. 19. Sounds of gunfire were heard in social media footage, and Kommersant cited residents saying several people had been injured. (The Moscow Times, 09.20.18)
• A new mid-year report from Russia’s Rosstat statistics agency said the population had decreased by 91,900 people between January and July this year. This half-year, migration failed to prop up the decrease as it did in the past, Rosstat said in the report published Sept. 19. (The Moscow Times, 09.20.18)
• Women make up 43 percent of researchers in Russia versus 29 percent worldwide, Russian Deputy Minister of Science and Higher Education, Grigory Trubnikov, said on Sept. 20. (TASS, 09.20.18)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia will hold large-scale military drills every five years, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said. (TASS, 09.16.18)
• A new Russian nuclear-powered submarine fleet, capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles outfitted with hypersonic weapons, will be ready for war by 2024, according to a person with firsthand knowledge of a U.S. intelligence report. (CNBC, 09.21.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A key witness in a bribery case that has brought down several of Moscow’s senior crime-fighting officials has been shot dead in his car outside St. Petersburg. Businessman Badri Shengelia testified in court last February that he had paid Mikhail Maximenko, the head of security at Moscow’s Investigative Committee, $50,000 in 2015 to launch a criminal probe. Shengelia has also earlier testified in a trial that put the so-called “night governor” of St. Petersburg Vladimir Kumarin behind bars for more than two decades. (The Moscow Times, 09.17.18, Russia Matters, 09.18.18)
• Russia's Memorial Human Rights Center says a judge in Chechnya has ordered closed-door court proceedings in the trial of Oyub Titiyev, one of Russia's leading human rights activists. (RFE/RL, 09.21.18)
• Russia’s Supreme Court on Sept. 20 sharply narrowed when people can be charged under the country’s extremism laws, saying that simply “liking” or reposting material on social media does not alone constitute a crime. (RFE/RL, 09.20.18)
• Russian investigators have launched an international manhunt for Sergei Slastikhin, the head of Inzherniye Sistemy, who was charged with fraud on Aug. 7 and placed on an international wanted list on Sept. 11. His company held contracts for several Roscosmos Federal Space Agency sites and he reportedly had access to state secrets. “It’s been established that the defendant is hiding outside Russia and is currently in the U.S.,” an unnamed investigator said. (The Moscow Times, 09.21.18)
• A group of masked men armed with axes has reportedly robbed passengers of a taxi in southern Moscow of 4.5 million rubles ($67,800) on Sept. 19. (The Moscow Times, 09.20.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Documents uncovered by investigative journalists have provided the first public evidence that the suspects in the Salisbury Novichok attack have formal ties to the Russian Defense Ministry. British authorities have charged Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov with conspiracy to murder Sergei and Yulia Skripal and detective Sgt. Nick Bailey. Prosecutors say Petrov and Boshirov work for Russian military intelligence, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied. But a passport information dossier for one of the two suspects bears a “top secret” marking and a telephone number with the order “Do not give information.” The number, called by the Observer on Sept. 15, links to a reception desk at the Russian Defense Ministry. The documents were published by Bellingcat. (Guardian, 09.15.18)
  • Bellingcat said Sept. 20 that a joint investigation with Business Insider "can confirm definitively" that Boshirov and Petrov have links to the GRU, "based on objective data and on discussions with confidential Russian sources familiar with the identity of at least one of the two persons." (RFE/RL, 09.20.18)
• Switzerland has demanded that Russia cease any spying activities on its territory after two suspected espionage cases came to light in recent days. The Swiss foreign ministry has summoned Russia’s ambassador in Bern three times this year to raise concerns about suspected operations targeting organizations based in Switzerland, including a laboratory used to test chemical weapons. (Reuters, 09.16.18)
• Two Russian spies caught in the Netherlands and expelled had been plotting cyber sabotage of a Swiss defense laboratory analyzing the nerve agent used to poison a former Russian agent in Britain, Swiss officials said Sept. 14. The story adds a new dimension to the charges by Western governments that the Kremlin is waging a sophisticated and unconventional campaign to work its will abroad, and undermine adversaries and their alliances. (New York Times, 09.14.18)
  • In a report published on Sept. 20, Bellingcat cited an unnamed source in a Western European law-enforcement agency as saying that Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov—which are presumably not the men's real names—were previously detained in the Netherlands. Unnamed sources in Dutch law enforcement said the arrests had taken place early this year. They were then handed over to Swiss authorities, the report added. (The Moscow Times, 09.20.18)
  • In response, Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassadors of Switzerland and the Netherlands in Moscow over what it said were "unsubstantiated accusations." (The Moscow Times, 09.19.18)
• Material about possible links between British spy agencies and a Russian businessman who died in mysterious circumstances in Britain nearly six years ago will remain secret, a judge has ruled. Nicholas Hilliard, who is leading the inquest into Aleksandr Perepilichny’s death, said in a ruling on Sept. 18 that the material is "marginal" to resolving the question of how the businessman died. (RFE/RL, 09.18.18)
• British police have ruled out the nerve agent Novichok in an incident in which two people fell ill after eating in a restaurant in Salisbury, the town where former Russian agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned in March. (RFE/RL, 09.17.18)
• The German government said on Sept. 17 it was concerned about the health of an anti-Kremlin activist who is in Berlin for treatment after a suspected poisoning. Pyotr Verzilov, publisher of a Russian online news outlet and affiliated with the anti-Kremlin band Pussy Riot, lost his sight, hearing and ability to walk, but is doing better since he arrived in Berlin for treatment on Sept. 15. (Reuters, 09.17.18)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for maintaining strong bilateral relations and helping to overcome the impact of EU sanctions against Moscow during a meeting between the two leaders on Sept. 18. “Despite the fact that our bilateral trade fell due to the introduction of EU sanctions, we managed to reverse the trend in our favor, and today I came with the intention of thanking you for all the work that we did together,” Orban told Putin ahead of bilateral talks on his second visit to Moscow in three months. Putin said that trade between the two countries increased 25 percent last year, and was up 30 percent in the first half of 2018. Putin said on Sept. 18 that the Russian state atomic energy firm Rosatom would start the construction of two new reactors at the Paks power nuclear plant in Hungary soon. (Financial Times, 09.18.18, Reuters, 09.18.18)
• The Russian Orthodox Church has announced it will no longer take part in structures chaired by the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople and that a deepening row in Orthodox Christianity over the Ukrainian Church’s bid to formally break away from Russia’s orbit may lead to violence. (RFE/RL, 09.15.18)
• Bank officials at the center of one of Europe's largest money laundering scandals knew earlier than previously indicated about problems at its tiny Estonian branch, including that it held accounts for blacklisted Russian clients, according to correspondence seen by The Wall Street Journal and Estonia's financial regulator. It is the latest indication that officials at Danske Bank were aware almost two years before it started shutting questionable accounts that the small but highly profitable branch was involved in potentially illicit money flows. "It is clear that Danske Bank has failed to live up to its responsibility in the case of possible money laundering in Estonia," CEO Thomas Borgen said in a Sept. 19 statement, as he announced his resignation. Danske Bank's money laundering scandal spread to Britain on Sept. 21 as the National Crime Agency said it is investigating the use of U.K.-registered companies. (Wall Street Journal, 09.18.18, RFE/RL, 09.19.18, Reuters, 09.21.18)
• Russia supports the peace accords that ended Bosnia's war in the 1990s and the country's territorial integrity, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Sept. 21 amid a Bosnian Serb leader's calls for secession of a Serb-run region from Bosnia. Lavrov also said that Russia will respect the outcome of Bosnia’s Oct. 7 general election, whatever the result. Analysts have warned that Lavrov's visit could be seen as support for the nationalist Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik. (Reuters, 09.21.18, AP, 09.21.18)
• The World Anti-Doping Agency declared Russia's scandal-ridden drug-fighting operation back in business Sept. 20. On a 9-2 vote, the executive committee declared RUSADA as having satisfied conditions of reinstatement that were gradually softened over the summer. (AP, 09.20.18)

China:

• The Trump administration imposed sanctions on the Chinese military on Sept. 20 for buying fighter jets and missile systems from Russia, in breach of a U.S. sanctions law punishing Moscow for meddling in the 2016 U.S. election. The sanctions are related to China's purchase of 10 SU-35 combat aircraft in 2017 and S-400 surface-to-air missile system-related equipment in 2018. China said Sept. 21 it was "outraged" over the sanctions against a Chinese military agency and its director, and demanded the U.S. cancel the measure. (Reuters, 09.21.18, Reuters, 09.21.18, AP, 09.21.18)
• State-run VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank and its only lender with a full branch in China, plans to double its headcount in Shanghai over the next three to four years as demand for commercial banking, foreign exchange and trade finance increases, said Riccardo Orcel, head of VTB’s international operations. (Financial Times, 09.18.18)
• Sovereign wealth fund Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) plans more investments with China’s Alibaba after the two became partners in a Russian joint venture last week and separately invested in a developer of augmented reality technology. (Reuters, 09.21.18)
• Russian aluminum giant Rusal is assembling a team of traders in China, as the specter of U.S. sanctions hangs over its sales to customers in the West. (Reuters, 09.21.18)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has signed a decree unilaterally ending a bilateral friendship treaty with Russia amid an ongoing breakdown in relations. (The Moscow Times, 09.17.18)
• Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Sept. 20 that Ukrainians are finally convinced of the benefits of the alliance with NATO and said the Ukrainian army will meet the criteria for NATO membership by 2020. Ukrainian lawmakers have voted to submit draft bills to the country's top court​ that would enshrine Ukraine’s EU and NATO goals in the constitution. (AP, 09.20.18, RFE/RL, 09.20.18)
• In his annual address to parliament on Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko warned on Sept. 20 that making concessions to Russia before it had handed Crimea back to Ukraine would be a defeat for international law. (RFE/RL, 09.20.18)
• The Russian military has made a new claim about the downing of a passenger jet over the war zone in eastern Ukraine in 2014, asserting that the missile that brought Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 down was sent to Soviet Ukraine after it was made in 1986 and never returned to Russia. Kiev swiftly disputed the Russian assertion. (RFE/RL, 09.17.18)
• The European Court of Human Rights has ordered the Ukrainian government not to access any data from the cell phone of RFE/RL investigative reporter Natalia Sedletska. (RFE/RL, 09.18.18)
• Russian politicians have criticized a new law passed in Ukraine’s western city of Lviv that bans “Russian-language culture products” in public places. (The Moscow Times, 09.19.18)
• At first glance, what happened to Yevgeny Kaseyev hardly seems like misfortune. Without his knowledge, he says, unknown individuals set up multiple companies in his name and deposited tens of millions of dollars into those companies’ bank accounts. “Sometimes it seems fun,” Kaseyev, a 34-year-old hairdresser, said with a shrug during an interview. “I’m a secret millionaire.” Until the authorities came calling, that is, seeking $30 million in back taxes. One of the people who did business with a company opened under Kaseyev’s stolen identity didn’t mean anything to him. But the name certainly caught the eye of investigators in the U.S.: Paul J. Manafort. (New York Times, 09.16.18)
• In 2014, Vitaly Bespalov signed on as a “content manager” at the Internet Research Agency, which looked vaguely like a digital marketing firm. Bespalov was surprised to discover that his job was to write or swipe stories to post on counterfeit Ukrainian websites, spinning the conflict there to fit the Russian government’s view. He had to be sure always to use the word “terrorists” for the Ukrainian fighters opposed to the Russian invasion that was tearing the country apart. (New York Times, 09.20.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Pope Francis will carry a message of solidarity to the Baltic nations on a visit starting on Sept. 22. (Reuters, 09.21.18)
• Lithuanian officials say Walmart, responding to their protests, has pulled shirts featuring a hammer and sickle emblem from its online shelves—a move that chilled already icy relations between the countries. On Sept. 19, a day after the news broke, Russia’s Foreign Ministry lobbed insults at Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry on Twitter. (New York Times, 09.19.18)
• The government of Kyrgyzstan is using a "dangerously overbroad" interpretation of extremism to convict hundreds of people and sentence them to long prison terms, Human Rights Watch said. (RFE/RL, 09.18.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.