Russia in Syria Monitor, Sept. 26-Oct. 3, 2017

Details of Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

  • A Russian airstrike killed 304 Islamic State militants on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River, and destroyed a training center for IS foreign mercenaries, including nearly 40 militants from the North Caucasus, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov said. Among the militants killed are seven IS commanders, including a Kazakh militant by the nom de guerre of Abu Islam al-Qazaqiit, who Russia says was an important commander in the Islamic State’s Syrian forces. Earlier, the Russian defense agency said the Russian air force destroyed more than 2,350 militants in Syria Sept. 19-29. (TASS, 10.03.17, RFE/RL, 10.03.17, TASS, 09.30.17)
  • Russian and Syrian jets killed at least 150 civilians and injured dozens in over a week of heavy bombing in opposition-held northwestern parts of Syria, opposition rescue workers said Sept. 27. (Reuters, 09.27.17)
  • “The first deployment of Russian military police to Syria began in December 2016. This was the first time Russia had deployed military police abroad. The experiment was clearly considered a success, and Moscow is now deploying battalion-strength scratch military police units created from several constituent elements but with no particular ethnic identity,” wrote Mark Galeotti, head of the Center for European Security at the Institute of International Relations in Prague. (War on the Rocks, 10.02.17)
  • Russian Col. Valery Fedyanin died in Moscow of wounds received in Syria. In a separate development, the Islamic State released a video purporting to show two Russian soldiers IS claims to have captured in fighting in the Syrian city of Deir el-Zour. The Russian Defense Ministry denies that two Russian soldiers have been captured. (AP, 10.03.17, Interfax, 10.03.17,10.01.17)

Response to Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

  • No significant developments.

Risk of accidental or intentional confrontation between Western and Russian forces in Syria:

  • No significant developments.

Strategies and actions recommended:

  • No significant developments.

Analysis:

  • No significant developments.

Other important news:

  • The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Oct. 1 said 3,055 civilians and fighters were killed in the country’s civil war during September, the highest monthly total in 2017. (RFE/RL, 10.02.17)
  • After meeting Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sept. 28 that the de facto conditions needed to end Syria’s civil war had been achieved. Erdogan said the talks focused on the specifics of securing a de-escalation zone in Syria’s northern Idlib province. Erdogan has earlier said his country is “achieving a result’’ by working with Russia in Syria. (TASS, 09.25.17, Bloomberg, 09.20.17, AP, 09.28.17, Reuters, 09.28.17)
  • Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz on Oct. 4 is due to become the first Saudi monarch to visit Moscow. At the top of his agenda will be reining in Iran, a close Russian ally seen as a deadly foe by most Gulf Arab states. Syria will also be discussed. Saudi Arabia and Russia plan to set up a $1 billion fund to invest in energy projects, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Oct. 2. (Reuters, 10.02.17, Bloomberg, 10.03.17)
  • Moscow expects the international community to help de-mine Syria and contribute humanitarian assistance to Syrian civilians under the aegis of the U.N., Russian President Vladimir Putin said. (Interfax, 10.03.17)
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service says it has detained members of an Islamic State sleeper cell outside Moscow and foiled a series of terrorist attacks. The men were from Russia’s majority-Muslim North Caucasus, and reported to IS members based abroad. (AP, 10.02.17).
  • The grave of terrorist leader Doku Umarov assassinated by Russian forces in 2013 has been discovered in the mountains of the republic of Ingushetia. (The Moscow Times, 09.28.17)
  • A member of an international terrorist organization deployed to Kyrgyzstan from Syria for the purpose of subversive activity has been taken into custody. (Interfax, 10.03.17)
  • An Oct. 2 poll indicates that 16% of Russians surveyed by the Levada Center fear a terrorist attack could take their lives. This number is down from the 30% who were gravely fearful of dying in a terrorist attack, and the nearly 50% who were somewhat fearful following the April 3 terrorist attack in the St. Petersburg subway. (The Moscow Times, 10.02.17)