Claim in 2016: Russia’s GDP contracted by 40% between 2013 and 2015. Its economy is now half the size of Great Britain’s.

Partially Correct: Correct only when measured in current USD without adjusting for inflation or other variations. (Fact-check done in November 2016.)

Source of the claims: the Wall Street Journal's Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Bret Stephens (Nov. 2016).

Both claims are correct only when gross domestic product is measured in "current U.S. dollars," meaning it is calculated at market exchange rates for national currencies without adjusting either for inflation or for variations in the cost of living. Other ways to measure GDP include using "constant prices," which have been adjusted for inflation, and/or purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, which are adjusted for differences in the cost of goods and services in each country. According to the CIA's World Factbook, “market exchange rates are frequently established by a relatively small set of goods and services (the ones the country trades) and may not capture the value of the larger set of goods the country produces… The data derived from the PPP method probably provide the best available starting point for comparisons of economic strength and well-being between countries.”

In short, when tested by any of the World Bank's measures of GDP other than current U.S. dollars, the claims do not hold up and Russia's economic picture looks much rosier:

Claim 1: Russia’s GDP contracted by 40% between 2013 and 2015.

Different measures of GDP

Year 2013

Year 2014

Year 2015

% change

RUS GDP (constant rubles), bn

62589

63031

60682

-3%

RUS GDP (current rubles), bn

71017

77945

80804

14%

RUS GDP (current US dollars), bn

2231

2031

1326

-41%

RUS GDP at market prices (constant 2010 dollars), bn

1667

1679

1616

-3%

RUS GDP, PPP (constant 2011 international dollars), bn

3608

3634

3498

-3%

RUS GDP, PPP (current international dollars), bn

3468

3666

3580

3%

Source: World Bank

Claim 2: Russia's economy is now half the size of Great Britain’s.

Again, the numbers depend on the way of calculating GDP. If measured in terms of PPP and adjusted for inflation, Russia's economy in 2015 was actually larger than Britain's. Final data for 2016 were not available as of this writing, but given estimates that Russia's economy will shrink by 0.6%, while Britain's will grow by 2%, the numbers should not be wildly different from 2015's.

Different measures of GDP

RUS GDP as % of GBR GDP in 2015

RUS GDP as % of GBR GDP in current US dollars

47%

RUS GDP as % of GBR GDP in constant 2010 dollars

61%

RUS GDP as % of GBR GDP in PPP constant 2011 international dollars

139%

RUS GDP as % of GBR GDP in PPP current  international dollars

133%

Source: World Bank