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Analysis | Aug 25, 2020
The rapidly developing situation in Belarus could potentially trigger the most significant shift in the European status quo since events in Ukraine in 2014. The Center for the National interest and some of the leading Russian and American foreign policy experts discuss the potential effects of the ongoing protests in Minsk.
Digest | Aug 21, 2020
Analysis | Aug 21, 2020
Russian president Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump share a playbook that has led each country into deep turmoil. But Trump's policies have led America's coronavirus outbreak to far outstrip Russia’s.
Event | Aug 27, 2020
Join the Center for Russian, Eastern European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Pittsburgh for a speaker series on US-Russian relations in the context of concurrent historical developments from their beginnings in the early 19th century. 
Analysis | Aug 19, 2020
Although some Western experts have warned about a Russian military intervention in Belarus, Russia may sit largely on the sidelines in hopes that whatever government succeeds Lukashenko will be pro-Russian.
Analysis | Aug 19, 2020
The deep flaws in one of Washington’s more popular plans to stop Russia’s election meddling shows just how much work remains to be done on deterring foreign adversaries from undermining the integrity of U.S. elections.
Post | Aug 17, 2020
When Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev pleaded with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2010 to have either Russia or the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization intervene to nip a color revolution against him in the bud, the Kremlin ignored that plea. However, when  Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko made similar pleas this week, Putin first apparently promised “comprehensive security assistance,” according to Lukashenko, and then stated “preparedness to render necessary assistance in resolving the emerged problems on the basis of the treaty on establishment of the Union State, and, if needed via the Collective Treaty Organization,” noting “external pressure” on Minsk.

These statements have led a number of Russia-watchers to proclaim Russia’s military intervention in Belarus is imminent or even underway. But is it?

To answer this question, I suggest exploring whether two conditions, which I have earlier identified as necessary and sufficient for Russia’s military intervention, are present in the case of Belarus. I identified those conditions to explain why Putin’s Russia did not intervene during the color revolutions in Ukraine in 2008 and in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 and 2010, but did so during the revolution in Ukraine in 2014 and in Syria in 2015. I also used this approach to predict that Putin would not intervene in Armenia when pro-Russian leader Serzh Sargsyan was being ousted from power in 2018, even though Russia had plenty of troops on the ground to do so.
Event | Aug 20, 2020
Join the Czechoslovak Society of Arts and Sciences (SVU), New York Chapter and the the Harriman Institute, Columbia University for a discussion with Igor Lukes, professor of history and international relations at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University.