July 21 update: Based on data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, in the past four weeks (June 23–July 21, 2026) Russian forces made a net gain of 15 square miles of Ukraine’s territory.
This evolving draft breaks down the military, political and economic factors that might help us answer whether the war has reached a turning point and if it favors Kyiv.
Simon Saradzhyan, Ivan Kurilla, Angelina Flood, Ivan Arreguín-ToftJune 18, 2026
Since 1547, Russia has fought 49 inter-state wars; 17 lasted longer than the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. Of these, 11 ended in Russian victories, one ended in a draw and five were losses.
News
The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, July 22, 2026
July 22, 2026
Analysis
Has the Russian-Ukraine War Reached a Turning Point Favoring Ukraine?
July 02, 2026
Blog
Russia’s Longer Inter-State Wars Have More Often Ended in Victory
June 18, 2026
RM Staff Picks
Blog
More Russians Oppose Use of Nukes Against Ukraine
RM Staff
Newly published polling by the Levada Center indicates that a clear majority of Russians continue to oppose the use of nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine.
Mythos in Moscow: Why Russia Will be the Relative Winner of AI Cyber Proliferation
Naveen Krishnan
Russia is the asymmetric beneficiary of this new period of cyberwarfare as its offensive ecosystem architecture is designed to take full advantage of the jump in capabilities Mythos enables.
Zaluzhnyi: For Russia and Ukraine, It’s a Question of How to Sell Outcome as Victory
RM Staff
Ukraine’s goals and strategies, the current battlefield situation and how and when the war might end were among the key topics Valerii Zaluzhnyi addressed in his latest extended Q&A.
Russia’s position in Iran’s war is that of a well-equipped backstage partner with a clear interest in the conflict’s prolongation and a sophisticated, if selective, toolkit for achieving it.
