4 Things to Know

1. Russian forces made a net gain of 31 square miles (slightly larger than the area of Manhattan Island) of Ukrainian territory in the past four weeks (June 2–30, 2026), according to RM’s analysis of data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group. In comparison, during the four weeks prior to that (May 5–June 2, 2026), Russia gained a net of 3 square miles, according to DeepState’s data analyzed in the latest issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In contrast, based on data from ISW, Russia gained a net of 11 square miles of Ukraine’s territory from June 2–30, 2026. ISW assessed in a statement on July 1 that Russian forces maintained a presence in 37% of the key Donbas city of Kostyantynivka. In a July 1 post of its own, DeepState acknowledged that “the enemy had successes in the area of ​​Kostyantynivka” and its July 2, 2026 map showed Russian forces continue attempts to capture this key element of Ukraine’s so-called Donbas fortress belt in a pincer movement.
2. Russia’s overnight July 1–2 assault on Kyiv was among its heaviest of the war. Ukrainian officials reported at least 18–21 people killed and more than 80–90 injured, with around 70 hospitalized. Ukraine’s Air Force said Moscow launched 74 missiles—including four Zircon, 24 Iskander ballistic, 34 Kh‑101, eight Kalibr and four Kh‑59/69—plus 496 Shahed‑type attack drones and decoys. Ukrainian air defenses said they intercepted 48 missiles and 476 drones, meaning 26 missiles and 20 drones reached targets.¹ Ukraine continues to suffer from lack of Patriot inceptors, which are the only means in the Ukrainian arsenal capable of reliably shooting down Russian ballistic missiles such as Iskanders.
3. A new Center for Strategic and International Studies study estimates that combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties, which include killed, wounded, and missing soldiers, have exceeded 2 million since the beginning of Russia’s full-fledged invasion in February 2022. According to the study, Russia is bearing the heavier toll: about 1.4 million casualties, including 450,000 killed. In contrast, Ukrainian forces have suffered somewhere between 525,000 and 625,000 casualties, with fatalities totaling somewhere between 125,000 and 150,000.² For a chronology of estimates of Russian and Ukrainian casualties see the latest issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.

4. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed Russia is in talks with unspecified countries to import gasoline as domestic supplies tighten after Ukrainian drone strikes cut refinery output by about 25%. Deputy PM Alexander Novak has called imports a “key measure,” according to the Moscow Times. At the same time, Russia’s seaborne crude exports hit a wartime record in June, averaging 4.13 million barrels per day over the four weeks to June 28 as damaged refineries force more crude abroad, according to Bloomberg and Meduza.

3 Ideas to Explore

1. “If Ukraine can continue to disrupt Crimea, strike more targets in the heart of Russia, frustrate Russia’s frontline forces and pile more pressure on Russia’s hobbled economy, an isolated, aging and frustrated Putin may decide he needs a game-changing attack,” Ian Bremmer warns in a commentary for Project Syndicate. For now, however, “the use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, a direct frontal assault on the former Soviet republics of Latvia and Estonia and major cyberattacks on European or American targets remain extremely unlikely,” Bremmer writes.
2. “Western decision makers believe that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has warned [Vladimir] Putin against the use of nuclear weapons. And they think that the Kremlin understands the risk that the West could intervene directly in the [Ukraine] war, if Russia went nuclear,” according to FT columnist Gideon Rachman. “The sheer frequency of nuclear saber-rattling by Putin and his circle has diminished its intimidatory power. As one Western official puts it: ‘He’s devalued the currency,’” Rachman explains his July 7 column. A separate July 7 FT article quoted Finland’s President Alexander Stubb as saying he met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi this weekend “and when the nuclear escalation issue came up, the answer was very firm from the Chinese side and involved plenty of red flags.” While Putin may have put nuclear saber rattling on hold, one of his long-time aides, Nikolai Patrushev, has not. Speaking in an interview for Russian-government media last month, he said that either Europe will rely on pragmatists to deal with Russia, or Europe will “face catastrophe.” “So far, events are unfolding according to the second scenario—and some European countries seem positively itching for trouble. I may be putting this rather bluntly, but when I watch the Baltic mice tugging at the whiskers of a cat with nuclear claws, that is precisely the impression I get,” he said.

3. Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe argue in a CSIS report that Russia has lost the military initiative in Ukraine as costs continue to mount. They assert that “the war in Ukraine heavily favors the defender,” that Russia’s progress has been “historically poor,” yet “despite high losses…Russia continues to fight.” On the battlefield, Jones and McCabe claim, Russia’s offensive has “largely stalled,” with average advances of “approximately 50 meters per day around Kostiantynivka, 70 meters per day around Pokrovsk and 90 meters per day around Sloviansk,” according to their July 1, 2026, report. On July 3, Russia's military told President Vladimir Putin that its forces had taken control of Kostiantynivka, according to MT. But on July 6, Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied this claim. Meanwhile, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState showed much of Kostiantynivka in the gray zone on its map of the conflict, with Russian forces trying to execute a pincer movement to encircle the key city as of July 4, 2026.

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

July 7, 2026 update: Based on data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, the past four weeks (June 9–July 7, 2026) saw Russian forces make a net gain of 31 square miles of Ukrainian territory (slightly larger than the size of Manhattan Island).¹ In comparison, during the previous four-week period (May 12–June 9, 2026), Russia lost a net of 1 square mile, according to DeepState’s data. In contrast, ISW data indicates that in the past four weeks (June 9–July 7, 2026) Russian forces saw a net gain of 6 square miles of Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, according to CSIS data, Ukrainian armed forces—which are running out of missiles for their U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems—intercepted only 14 of 54 ballistic missiles that Russia fired at Ukraine in June. More recently, Ukraine failed to intercept “any of the 23 Russian ballistic missiles” that hit the Kyiv area in the early hours of July 6, WSJ reported.

Territorial Control (DS and ISW figures as of July 7, 2026)²