The author argues that the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic crisis will not raise the economic “burden to the point where Russian President Vladimir Putin feels compelled to sue for peace” in Ukraine. Despite an extraordinary decline in the price of oil, “Russia is in a position to withstand the brunt of the crisis, at least for now … Kyiv, not Moscow, may soon feel compelled to capitulate.” Russia’s strategic reserve of gold and foreign currency, a large National Wealth Fund and floating exchange rate may provide “shock absorber[s]” for the Russian economy. Relief from sanctions would be welcome, though Russia “is not desperate for it” to the point that “the Kremlin would abandon key strategic priorities for such minor relief.”

Russia is reluctant to halt support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine as “abandoning the conflict would be seen as a capitulation to the West and an abdication of Russian power abroad.” At the same time, Ukraine is much “less prepared to deal with the fallout [of the pandemic]” than Russia and could soon be compelled, with Ukraine’s allies preoccupied, “to seek an end to the war." Haberman concludes that Russia and Ukraine “will face increasing pressure to bring relief to their economies and populations … but one side would have to stand down … that is unlikely to be Russia.”

Read the full article at Foreign Policy.

Photo by kremlin.ru.