The author writes that for Russia, elections serve as “acts of confirmation.” Although he has not yet announced his candidacy, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to make big campaign promises, but his international and domestic priorities are unlikely to change. The author argues that reform presents major vulnerability for a Russian leader, and that above all, Putin wants to maintain control. A primary concern in Putin’s fourth term will be keeping the Russian economy afloat and dealing with the persistent issue of corruption, the one things that stirs Russians to protest. Foreign affairs also seem unlikely to change. Putin’s desire for a negotiated settlement in Syria seems likely to run into roadblocks, and a resolution does not appear likely in Ukraine. “But no one should expect him to back down if the current balance of forces is challenged, no matter the consequences.” If Putin’s victory in the March 2018 election is big, it would also be a triumph for the Russian autocratic state.

Read the full article at the Kennan Institute website.