The authors, an assistant professor of political science at Georgia State University and an assistant professor of government at Dartmouth College, write that “U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has faced persistent questions about its redlines” in response to Russia massing troops on its border with Ukraine. The authors note that while “abandoning redlines altogether is not the answer,” articulating redlines comes with its own challenges. First, “the adversary can simply ignore [redlines], forcing the United States to follow through on its threats or else look weak and unreliable. … [Additionally,] public threats can provoke targets to resist or retaliate instead of backing down. Furthermore, overly aggressive threats in defense of redlines can reduce the incentive for U.S. adversaries to comply.” The authors argue against pre-emptive sanctions against Russia, and that “Washington should instead create the strongest possible incentive for Putin to stand down by making clear that U.S. sanctions will be maximized if Russia invades and minimized if it does not.” 

Read the full article at Foreign Affairs.

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