Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
research paper

Wargaming NATO's Defense of the Baltics

David A. Shlapak and Michael Johnson August 23, 2016 Recommended Reads
The games’ findings are unambiguous: At present NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members; fortunately, changing that will not require Herculean effort.
report

The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model

Christopher Paul and Miriam Matthews July 11, 2016 Partner Posts
The contemporary Russian propaganda model is high-volume, multichannel, rapid, continuous and repetitive. The very factors that make this model successful also make it difficult to counter. While traditional counterpropaganda approaches are likely to be inadequate, more effective solutions can be found in the same psychology literature that explains the surprising success of this phenomenon.
report

NATO's Northeastern Flank—Emerging Opportunities for Engagement

Christopher S. Chivvis, Raphael S. Cohen, Bryan Frederick, Daniel S. Hamilton, F. Stephen Larrabee and Bonny Lin July 07, 2016 Partner Posts
Renewed tensions between Russia and the West have important implications for U.S. Air Force strategy, posture and regional engagement in Europe, requiring a new assessment of opportunities for Air Force partnerships in the region.
report

Russia's Military: Assessment, Strategy and Threat

Alexander Golts and Michael Kofman June 24, 2016 Partner Posts
A report providing a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the Russian armed forces in the context of Russia’s reemergence on the geopolitical stage.
report

Russia's Medium-Term Economic Prospects

Keith Crane, Shanthi Nataraj, Patrick B. Johnston and Gursel Rafig oglu Aliyev June 22, 2016 Partner Posts
Without major policy changes, the Russian economy will grow slowly in the medium term, even if world market prices for oil rebound sharply by the end of the decade. However, there is much that the Russian government could do internally to accelerate growth.
report

False Alarms, True Dangers?

Anthony Barrett June 09, 2016 Recommended Reads
Because the U.S. does not a have a consistent method of risk assessment for inadvertent nuclear war, misinterpretations could lead to a nuclear strike, either by U.S. or Russian forces.
research paper

Deal or No Deal: Did the US Promise Russia No NATO Expansion?

Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson May 05, 2016 Recommended Reads
New archival materials show that U.S. officials did indeed offer the Soviets informal assurances of NATO's non-expansion in 1990, while keeping open the possibility of expansion and seeking to maximize U.S. power in post-Cold War Europe.
column

What Would a Realist World Have Looked Like?

Stephen M. Walt January 18, 2016 Recommended Reads
Expanding NATO didn’t strengthen the alliance; it just committed the U.S. to protect a group of weak and hard-to-defend places that were far from home but right next door to Russia.
report

US-Russian Relations Beyond Ukraine

Richard Weitz May 01, 2015 Recommended Reads
Beyond Ukraine, the underlying source of conflict is the lack of stakeholders on either side who stand to benefit from improved relations.
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Why Arming Kiev is a Really, Really Bad Idea

Stephen M. Walt February 09, 2015
Arming Ukraine will simply intensify the conflict and add to the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
research paper

Russia’s Breakout From the Post-Cold War System

Dmitri Trenin December 22, 2014 Recommended Reads
In 2014, Russia broke out of the post–Cold War order and openly challenged the U.S.-led international system.
research paper

The Sino-Russian Gas Partnership

Morena Skalamera November 01, 2014 Recommended Reads
Putin seeks to show the world and the Russian people that he has alternative friends to the East, but the incentives leading to the mega deal were in place much earlier.
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