Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine

Kevin Ryan May 17, 2023 RM Exclusives
A former U.S. defense attaché to Moscow believes it's almost unavoidable.
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US Intel Leaks Highlight Russia's Limited Options in Face of Ukraine's Counteroffensive

Pavel Luzin May 05, 2023 RM Exclusives
Moscow’s main bet militarily seems to be on playing defense, as it lacks the manpower, arms and commanders to regain strategic initiative on the battlefield.
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Ukraine War Compels Bundeswehr to Refocus and Rebuild, but at Too Slow a Pace

Erich Vad April 20, 2023 RM Exclusives
In the past, Germany believed it could afford to neglect national and NATO defense because the threat situation was quite different. In retrospect, this was politically short-sighted.
explainer

How Will the ICC’s Arrest Warrant for Putin Actually Work?

Gleb Bogush April 04, 2023 RM Exclusives
A major legal obstacle will come from his status as head of state, which can pose significant challenges for a state that aims to arrest him under its ICC obligations.
explainer

Can International Law Bring a Measure of Justice to Ukraine?

Kevin Jon Heller March 22, 2023 RM Exclusives
Very few options currently exist for prosecuting the high-ranking Russian government and military leaders who are responsible for the invasion.
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The moment when Putin turned away from the West

David Ignatius March 09, 2023 Recommended Reads
Bush had maintained a surprisingly close relationship with the Russian leader, centered on a counterterrorism alliance. The United States was battling al-Qaeda at the time; Russia was fighting Chechen separatists. But Putin came to believe that America was an unreliable, hypocritical partner — and that belief would curdle into the open feud that has deepened, year by year.
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What Led to Putin’s Blunder in Ukraine?

Simon Saradzhyan February 24, 2023 RM Exclusives
Three factors are likely to have contributed to shaping Putin’s decision to launch the invasion one year ago.
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Domestic Politics Encourage Continued War of Attrition in Ukraine in 2023

Thomas Graham February 22, 2023 RM Exclusives
The main question now: How far will the escalation go?
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The Top 5 Lessons from Year 1 of Ukraine’s War

Stephen M. Walt February 09, 2023 Recommended Reads
Europe’s brutal conflict has been a harsh but instructive teacher.
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8 Lessons for Taiwan From Russia’s War in Ukraine

Tzu-yun Su January 18, 2023 RM Exclusives
While the fighting in Ukraine is on land, and thus very different from the maritime battlefield that would surround Taiwan, there are still many things this island nation can learn from Ukraine's defensive operations.
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What’s Ahead in the War in Ukraine

Alex Vershinin December 22, 2022 RM Exclusives
The opposing sides have adopted two opposing strategies: Russians are fighting a traditional firepower-centric war of attrition; Ukraine is pursuing a terrain-focused war of maneuver. These opposing strategies are as much a product of national resource availability as a deliberate choice.
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No One Would Win a Long War in Ukraine

Vladislav Zubok December 21, 2022 Recommended Reads
The West must formulate a major policy vision that obviates the desire of Ukraine and its staunchest supporters to have Russia smashed and neutralized.
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