Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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Parsing the Evidence: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

RM Staff January 27, 2022 RM Exclusives
With reams of analysis written to answer this question, we summarize a handful of experts who have backed their assertions with abundant research.
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Putin’s Wager in Russia’s Standoff With the West

Michael Kofman January 24, 2022 Recommended Reads
Putin may see diplomacy as a last-ditch effort to avert war in Ukraine, but Russia’s posture suggests that he is leaning toward a unilateral solution.
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Breaking the Impasse Between Russia and the West Over European Security

Thomas Graham January 20, 2022 RM Exclusives
Compromises by the West—including a lengthy moratorium on NATO expansion—can ensure that competition with Moscow proceeds in a way that minimizes the risk of catastrophic military conflict.
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Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis

Stephen M. Walt January 19, 2022 Recommended Reads
Had the United States and its European allies not succumbed to hubris, wishful thinking and liberal idealism and relied instead on realism’s core insights, the present crisis would not have occurred.
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For Russia and US, National Security Must Be Embedded in Mutual Security

Robert Legvold January 06, 2022 RM Exclusives
The clash around Ukraine is over competing rights, not merely conflicting interests, and any solution depends on incentives (rather than disincentives) and a rebuilding of trust.
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The Ukraine Crisis Will End Inevitably in a Redivision of Europe

Thomas Graham January 04, 2022 Recommended Reads
The dividing line between Europe and the Russian sphere of influence in Europe has gravitated westward and eastward over the past three centuries as a consequence of periodic trials of arms.
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Biden-Putin Call Solves Nothing, US Signals ‘Deterrence by Punishment’

Nikolas K. Gvosdev December 09, 2021 RM Exclusives
The call guarantees that the Biden administration is going to have to devote more attention and time to Moscow in 2022.
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A Greener Russia? Moscow’s Agenda at the COP26 Climate Summit

Anastasia Likhacheva November 09, 2021 Recommended Reads
Russia managed to formulate three climate principles ahead of COP26 that its delegation is promoting in Glasgow and, most likely, will continue to long after the summit ends.
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‘Green Burden’: How Global Climate Policies Could Impact Russia

Danila Bochkarev August 04, 2021 RM Exclusives
European carbon taxes and a broader push for less fossil fuel could cost Russia’s economy billions of dollars, nudging Moscow to adopt new policies.
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Macron’s Dialogue With Russia: A French Attempt to Fix the European Security Architecture

Juliette Faure May 12, 2021 RM Exclusives
While Macron has attempted to shape Europe’s strategic autonomy in the management of its eastern neighborhood, lack of support from the EU has impeded the success of this policy, as has Russian behavior throughout 2020.
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Russia's Military Buildup Near Ukraine Is an Intimidation Tactic

Michael Kofman April 03, 2021 Recommended Reads
Russia's military posturing appears to be primarily coercive and demonstrative in nature.
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The United States and the NATO Non-extension Assurances of 1990: New Light on an Old Problem?

Marc Trachtenberg January 25, 2021 Recommended Reads
An examination of the debate on NATO accession leads to the conclusion that Russian allegations of U.S. assurances of NATO's non-expansion into former Warsaw Pact states are not baseless. This affects our understanding of the U.S.-Russian relationship today.
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