This Week’s Highlights

• A summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden is likely to take place in June, Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov said. "June is being named, there are even concrete dates," Ushakov said. Kommersant reports the White House will propose to the Kremlin that the summit be held in Europe on June 15-16. Any potential meeting between Biden and Putin would come after Biden’s meetings with G7 and NATO officials, U.S. sources say.
• “We’re at a great inflection point in history,” Biden said in his April 28 speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress. Chinese President Xi Jinping is “deadly earnest about becoming the most significant, consequential nation in the world. He and others—autocrats—think that democracy can’t compete in the 21st century with autocracies.” “With regard to Russia, I know it concerns some of you, but I made very clear to Putin that we’re not going to seek escalation, but their actions will have consequence if they turn out to be true. … But we can also cooperate when it’s in our mutual interest,” Biden said.
• The Kremlin has ruled out the possibility of creating a bloc between Russia and China in order to oppose the United States. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov explained that this is because Putin understands the term "alliance" differently than Biden. "As for working with allies, perhaps, one can talk about the conceptual difference in the U.S. and Russia's approaches to alliances. For President Putin, alliance means cooperation for the benefit of the countries involved [...], but it is by no means some joint actions against someone else," Peskov said, according to Interfax.
• In leaked audio recordings made public April 25, Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, claimed Russia did not want the JCPOA to succeed as that would result in Tehran normalizing relations with the West, and therefore Moscow “put all its weight” behind placing obstacles on the path to the agreement. Zarif also said that Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force, had also worked to subvert the JCPOA by colluding with Russia and by ramping up Iran's intervention in Syria's civil war. 
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit Ukraine on May 5-6 to reiterate Washington’s support for the country amid Russia’s "aggression." Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for a revamp of the 2015 Minsk-2 accord, saying it was not just up to the U.S. to reboot the Normandy format grouping, but that the U.K. and Canada should also participate. According to the results of a recent Levada Center poll released April 29, almost half of Russians blame the U.S. and its NATO allies for the escalation of tensions in eastern Ukraine. 
• The Moscow City Prosecutor's Office has suspended all activities at the offices Navalny's headquarters across the country and asked the Moscow City Court to do the same for Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation and the Citizens’ Rights Protection Foundation. Navalny’s political network has been disbanded ahead of a court ruling to declare it an “extremist” organization, his senior aide announced April 29.  

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukraine’s president on April 26 unveiled a new nuclear waste repository at Chernobyl. President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Chernobyl together with Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and vowed to “transform the exclusion zone, as Chernobyl is referred to, into a revival zone.” (AP, 04.26.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• In leaked audio recordings made public April 25, Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, claimed Russia did not want the JCPOA to succeed as that would result in Tehran normalizing relations with the West, and therefore Moscow “put all its weight” behind placing obstacles on the path to the agreement. At one point during the negotiations on the JCPOA, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Zarif to refer to his superiors in Tehran, according to the Iranian diplomat. Zarif found that remark to be humiliating and “I impolitely told him: ‘It’s none of your . . . business,’” Zarif said. Zarif also said that Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force, had also worked to subvert the JCPOA by colluding with Russia and by ramping up Iran's intervention in Syria's civil war. Zarif also criticized Soleimani for allowing Russian planes to fly over Iran on their way to bomb Syria. The leak has made clear that the military wields the most power in Tehran. (The Washington Post, 04.26.21, Times of Israel, 04.26.21, The Jerusalem Post, 04.26.21, Financial Times, 04.28.21)        
  • On April 28, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani suggested that the leak was aimed at derailing the nuclear talks in which U.S. President Joe Biden is seeking a return to the JCPOA abandoned nearly three years ago by his predecessor. (RFE/RL, 04.28.21)
  • One Tehran-based observer told RFE/RL that the leak could increase Zarif's  popularity because it shows he is willing to challenge state policies and to criticize Russia, which he said was "unprecedented." (RFE/RL, 04.28.21)
  • In its relations with Iran, Moscow relies on Tehran’s official statements and knows well who would like to manipulate with them, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said regarding the leaked comments. (TASS, 04.29.21)
• Members of the Russian and U.S. delegations have held a working meeting as part of the negotiation process in Vienna on the full restoration of the JCPOA, Russia’s Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov announced April 29. (TASS, 04.29.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• “We’re at a great inflection point in history,” Biden said in his April 28 speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress. Chinese President Xi Jinping is “deadly earnest about becoming the most significant, consequential nation in the world. He and others—autocrats—think that democracy can’t compete in the 21st century with autocracies because it takes too long to get consensus.” “With regard to Russia, I know it concerns some of you, but I made very clear to Putin that we’re not going to seek escalation, but their actions will have consequence if they turn out to be true. … But we can also cooperate when it’s in our mutual interest. We did it when we extended the New START Treaty on nuclear arms, and we’re working to do it on climate change. But he understands we will respond,” Biden said. (The White House, 04.29.21,  New York Times, 04.29.21)
• “It was clear from the first 100 days that we faced an increasingly assertive China and disruptive Russia,” a senior Biden administration official said April 27. “Our approach has remained consistent, which is that we are not going to shy away from imposing costs on Russia for actions that we believe are beyond the pale—are just unacceptable for responsible nations to take in the world. … We have also been clear that our desire is not to escalate with Russia. Our desire is to make clear, to underscore to Russia exactly what sorts of activities we will not tolerate,” the official said. (The White House, 04.27.21)
• "A country has come forward that is already capable of becoming equal with the U.S. in terms of various indicators, including purchasing power parity, and even leaving it behind—it’s China," Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. (TASS, 04.29.21)
• America’s top spies say they are looking for ways to declassify and release more intelligence about adversaries’ bad behavior, after a group of four-star military commanders sent a rare and urgent plea asking for help in the information war against Russia and China. The memo from nine regional military commanders last year implored spy agencies to give them more evidence they can make public as a way to combat "pernicious conduct." (Politico, 04.26.21)
• Bulgarian prosecutors have linked six Russian nationals to a series of explosions at ammunition and arms factories on its soil, Bulgarian media reported April 28. Prosecutor-General’s Office spokeswoman Siika Mileva said the four incidents dating as far back as a decade ago may be connected to the attempted 2015 poisoning of Bulgarian arms dealer Emilian Gebrev, according to the Bulgarian News Agency. Three Russian nationals suspected of working for the GRU military intelligence agency are wanted in connection with Gebrev's poisoning. Three others were reportedly in Bulgaria around the time of the poisoning attempt and the explosions—one of which took place in 2011, two in 2015 and one last year. (The Moscow Times, 04.28.21)                                   
• The Czech government on April 26 reiterated that evidence linking Russian GRU military intelligence to arms depot explosions in 2014 is “very convincing,” after President Milos Zeman cast doubt over allegations that have sparked a deep diplomatic rift with Russia. Zeman, who is known for being sympathetic toward Moscow, said during a televised address to the nation on April 25 that there are two theories about what caused the explosion of a munitions depot in 2014: one version is that Russian intelligence was involved in the deadly explosion, the other is that the blast was caused by inexpert handling of ammunition. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21)
  • Thousands of Czechs have rallied in Prague against Zeman, calling for his removal from office and condemning what opponents say are his pro-Russia views. (RFE/RL, 04.29.21)
  • In an email to The New York Times, Bulgarian arms trade Emilian Gebrev acknowledged that he was storing ammunition at the Czech arms depot and admitted something that he had long denied: that his company, Emco, had shipped military equipment to Ukraine after 2014, when separatists backed by the Russian military and intelligence services started a war with Ukrainian forces. (New York Times, 04.26.21)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 26 dismissed as "absurd" Prague's accusations against Moscow after Czech authorities accused the Russian secret services of being behind the deadly arms depot blast. In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Putin "commented on the current state of Russian-Czech relations, emphasizing the absurd nature of Prague's accusations and actions against Russia," the Kremlin said in a statement. (AFP, 04.07.21)
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry said in statements on April 28 that the ambassadors of four European nations had been informed that three officials at the Slovak Embassy in Moscow, two officials at the Lithuanian Embassy and one official each from the embassies of Latvia and Estonia had been ordered to leave Russia before May 5 for their "pseudo-solidarity" with the Czech Republic. (RFE/RL, 04.28.21)
  • Romania said April 26 it will expel a Russian diplomat, the latest European country to do so in solidarity with the Czech Republic. (AFP, 04.26.21)
  • The European Parliament passed a resolution April 29 calling on EU countries to coordinate the expulsion of Russian diplomats in reaction to the 2014 ammunition depot explosion in the Czech Republic. The resolution calls for the EU to reduce dependence on Russian energy, stop the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and not let Rosatom build nuclear plants in the EU. (Euractiv, 04.30.21)
    • Russia has placed entry bans on eight officials from EU states, including European Parliament President David Sassoli and European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova, Russia's Foreign Ministry said April 30. Berlin's chief state prosecutor Jörg Raupach was also among those who will not be allowed to enter Russia. Sassoli and Jourova have criticized the Kremlin for its treatment of Alexei Navalny and disinformation campaigns online. (DW, 04.30.21)
• Russia has expelled an Italian diplomat over what it said was an "unjustified" move by Rome to expel two Russian diplomats in March. (RFE/RL, 04.26.21)
• “It’s also very important going forward that Turkey, and for that matter all U.S. allies and partners, avoid future purchases of Russian weaponry, including additional S-400s,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. (Defense Blog, 04.29.21)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• The Kremlin has ruled out the possibility of creating a bloc between Russia and China in order to oppose the United States. Peskov explained that this is because Putin understands the term "alliance" differently than Biden. "As for working with allies, perhaps, one can talk about the conceptual difference in the U.S. and Russia's approaches to alliances. For President Putin, alliance means cooperation for the benefit of the countries involved [...], but it is by no means some joint actions against someone else," Peskov said (Interfax, 04.29.21)
• Amid growing tensions between the U.S. and Russia, China threw its support behind Putin, calling the two nations "comprehensive strategic partners of coordination in the new era." In a recent state of the union address, Putin reminded Western leaders of the country's nuclear arsenal and warned the West not to cross a "red line." Any country that provoked threats to Russia's fundamental security would "regret their deeds more than they have regretted anything in a long time," according to Putin. When asked about Putin's comment, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said China and Russia will "continue to understand and support each other in safeguarding our respective sovereignty, security and development interests." (Newsweek, 04.27.21)
• The China National Space Administration (CNSA) and its Russian counterpart issued a joint declaration on cooperation in the creation of the International Lunar Research Station. Meanwhile, China has launched the first part of a space station that will remain in orbit for at least a decade. The station is set to remain in orbit for at least 10 years and will be able to host three astronauts for missions of up to half a year. (Financial Times, 04.29.21, Global Times, 04.24.21)

Missile defense:

• Russia’s Air and Space Defense Forces on April 26 conducted a successful test of the new interceptor of the Moscow missile defense system at the Sary-Shagan test site. According to a VKS representative, "after a series of tests the interceptor fully confirmed technical characteristics of the interceptor." The representative also noted it was a joint launch crew with VKS and the Strategic Rocket Forces. (Russianforces.org, 04.26.21)
• The Pentagon’s Next-Generation Interceptor will cost nearly $18 billion across the life of the program or little over $2 billion per interceptor. (Defense News, 04.28.21) 

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• After the JCPOA was signed, Putin persuaded Soleimani to put Iran’s ground forces in Syria, Zarif claimed in the leaked tape. Russia had by then intervened to back Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and wanted to increase Tehran’s role in regional conflict, he implied, thus damaging the nuclear deal. The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment. (Financial Times, 04.28.21)        
• The Pentagon has briefed top lawmakers on intelligence surrounding suspected directed-energy attacks against U.S. troops, and officials identified Russia as a likely culprit, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. The briefings included information about injuries sustained by U.S. troops in Syria. (Politico, 04.22.21)
• Assad has briefed Putin about preparations for the presidential election in his country scheduled for May, the Kremlin press service said April 26 after a telephone conversation between the two leaders. (TASS, 04.26.21)
• Russian military police have been deployed to a city in northeastern Syria to halt clashes between Kurdish forces and Syrian government-allied fighters, a Russian officer says. Rear Adm. Alexander Karpov, the head of the Russian military's Reconciliation Center in Syria, said military police backed by helicopter gunships were sent to Qamishli near the border with Turkey. He said Russian mediation efforts helped halt the shooting in the city and stabilize the situation. (AP, 04.27.21)
• Amid confused reports of a drone attack on an Iranian ship in the Mediterranean on its way to Syria, Iran appears to have moved its weapons shipments to Syria and Lebanon from land—where Israel has regularly tracked and destroyed them—to ships that may be receiving protection from Russian vessels in the Mediterranean. (Breaking Defense, 04.27.21)

Cyber security:

• Big U.S. tech companies and officials are urging governments to designate ransomware as a national security threat in a push to combat a hacking epidemic that has cost businesses tens of millions of dollars. The calls came two weeks after the U.S. Treasury accused Russia’s FSB of “cultivating and coopting” EvilCorp, one of the most notorious ransomware groups. (Financial Times, 04.29.21)
• U.S. officials have arrested the alleged main operator of the cryptocurrency money-laundering website Bitcoin Fog. Roman Sterlingov, a citizen of Russia and Sweden, was detained in Los Angeles April 28 on three money-laundering-related charges. (RFE/RL, 04.29.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• “We’ve been quite clear, for example, with the German government that we think Nord Stream 2 is a bad deal. They have a different view of it, and we have taken steps, including some concrete steps, to underscore the degree to which we are committed to trying to get them to change their view of that pipeline. But—but fundamentally, our relationship with Germany, our relationship with our other key European and transatlantic partners, is in a cornerstone of our approach to the rest of the world, including to Russia,” a senior Biden administration official said. (The White House, 04.27.21)
• The need for gas imports in Europe and China by 2030 may increase by almost 20 percent to 550 billion cubic meters of gas per year, said Gazprom Deputy Board Chairman Oleg Aksyutin. (TASS, 04.29.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A summit between Putin and Biden is likely to take place in June, Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov said. "June is being named, there are even concrete dates," Ushakov said. Kommersant reports the White House will propose to the Kremlin that the summit be held in Europe on June 15-16. A summit between Biden and Putin is in the works in a third country to get the tense relationship “on a more stable, predictable path,” U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said April 30. Sullivan said at the Aspen Security Forum that he held a call with his Russian counterpart April 30 and that the two sides were actively looking for a venue. He added that Biden is looking forward to personally engaging Putin. Any potential meeting between Biden and Putin would come after Biden’s meetings with G7 and NATO officials, U.S. sources say. (Financial Times, 04.25.21, Russia Matters, 04.25.21, RFE/RL, 04.25.21, CNN, 04.26.21, Defense News, 04.30.21)
• The U.S. Embassy in Moscow says it is reducing the number of consular services it will provide because of restrictions Russia has imposed over the hiring of local staff. "Effective May 12, U.S. Embassy Moscow will reduce consular services offered to include only emergency U.S. citizen services and a very limited number of age-out and life or death emergency immigrant visas," the embassy said in a statement April 30. (RFE/RL, 04.30.21)
• NASA is negotiating an agreement with Russia in which NASA astronauts would continue to ride on the Soyuz in exchange for Russian astronauts going to space in SpaceX and Boeing capsules. In that arrangement, no money would be exchanged, but it would help ensure that astronauts would be familiar with all of the equipment. (New York Times, 04.25.21)
• The U.S. State Department says press freedom in Russia is under growing threat as authorities slap RFE/RL and other media organizations with restrictive “foreign agent” labels and fines. “Should the Russian government continue to move to forcibly shut down RFE/RL, we will respond,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said, without specifying what action could be taken. (RFE/RL, 04.30.21)
• U.S. federal agents executed a search warrant April 28 at the Manhattan home of Rudy Giuliani for the seizure of his electronic devices in a probe centered around Giuliani's activities involving Ukraine and whether he sought to influence U.S. policy toward that country. Additionally, the FBI warned Giuliani in late 2019 that he was the target of a Russian influence operation aimed at circulating falsehoods intended to damage Biden politically ahead of last year's election, according to people familiar with the matter. (The Washington Post, 04.28.21, The Washington Post, 04.30.21)
• A Russian government regulator has slapped a fine of more than $12 million on Apple for "abusing" its dominant market position by giving preference to its own applications. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Kremlin has denied keeping secret statistics on the number of coronavirus cases in Russia, after Bloomberg reported government officials warning a third wave of the pandemic has already hit the country.  Life expectancy in Russia plummeted after the fall of the Soviet Union but has been steadily increasing since 2003. In 2020, however, it fell to 71.5 years, compared with 73.3 years in 2019, the Health Ministry's figures indicated.  Russia has vaccinated 11.9 million people with a first dose of one of its three homemade coronavirus vaccines. (The Moscow Times, 04.26.21, AFP, 04.27.21, The Moscow Times, 04.28.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• According to Rosstat, the nominal average income per capita rose 3 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2021. Real money incomes were down 2.8 percent y/y (vs. -0.7 percent y/y in 4Q20, -4.1 percent y/y in 3Q20 and -7.6 percent y/y in 2Q20) and real disposable incomes were down 3.6 percent y/y (vs. -0.9 percent y/y in 4Q20, -5 percent y/y in 3Q20 and -7 percent y/y in 2Q20) over the same period of time. (bne IntelliNews, 04.30.21)
• Nearly half of Russians, 49 percent, believe their country is headed in the right direction, according to a recent Levada Center poll, while 41 percent of respondents hold the opposite view. According to the same poll, Putin’s approval rating saw a slight bump this month, rising to 65 percent approval from 63 percent the previous month, with only a third of respondents disapproving of Putin’s performance as president. Approval of the Russian government, meanwhile, remains split nearly in half, with 49 percent of respondents approving of the government’s work and 48 percent disapproving. (Russia Matters, 04.30.21)                                                    
• Jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny’s political network has been disbanded ahead of a court ruling to declare it an “extremist” organization, his senior aide announced April 29. “We are officially disbanding Navalny’s network,” Leonid Volkov, the network of regional headquarters’ former coordinator, wrote on social media. (The Moscow Times, 04.29.21)                                                     
  • The Moscow City Prosecutor's Office has suspended all activities at the offices Navalny's headquarters across the country and asked the Moscow City Court to do the same for Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation and the Citizens’ Rights Protection Foundation. (RFE/RL, 04.26.21)
  • Navalny’s regional campaign offices have been placed on the Russian financial regulator's list of organizations involved in "terrorism and extremism." The network appeared on an updated list maintained by Russia's financial monitoring service, Rosfinmonitoring, on April 30, a day after the network of Navalny's regional offices was disbanded. (RFE/RL, 04.30.21)
  • Navalny has issued a scathing assessment of Putin and Russia's justice system at a court hearing. Navalny, his head shaved and looking gaunt following his refusal to eat for more than three weeks, referred to Putin as "the emperor with no clothes" and charged that Russia under his rule "continues to degrade every year." (RFE/RL, 04.29.21)
  • Ivan Pavlov, one of Russia’s top human rights lawyers who is representing Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, has been detained for allegedly disclosing classified information relating to an ongoing investigation. Pavlov told reporters that he was briefly detained early on April 30 by FSB agents while his hotel room in Moscow was searched. (RFE/RL, 04.30.21)
  • Russian authorities have detained nearly 200 people in over two dozen cities in the week since protests in support of Navalny swept the country. (The Moscow Times, 04.28.21)                                   
  • A court in northwestern Russia has sentenced Andrei Borovikov, a former associate of Navalny, to 2 1/2 years in prison for “distributing pornography” after he shared a video by the German rock band Rammstein in 2014, in a case Amnesty International described as “utterly absurd.” (RFE/RL, 04.29.21)
• The independent Meduza news website has launched a fundraising campaign after editors said its branding as a “foreign agent” has put its survival in jeopardy. Russia’s Justice Ministry added Meduza to its “foreign agents” registry last week, a move supporters say is aimed at silencing one of Russia’s most popular independent media outlets. (The Moscow Times, 04.29.21) 
• A court hearing has started in Russia's Siberian region of Yakutia to decide on the forced "treatment" in a closed psychiatric institution of a shaman who has been stopped by authorities several times in his attempts to march to Moscow by foot “to drive President Vladimir Putin out of the Kremlin.” (RFE/RL, 04.30.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia and the rest of the world increased military spending in 2020 despite the coronavirus pandemic, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) think tank said in a new report April 26. In a second consecutive year of growth, Russia’s military expenditure rose 2.5 percent to $61.7 billion, placing it fourth in the world behind the United States, China and India, if measured in dollars. If measured in current rubles, the currency Russia uses to finance most of its defense expenditures, the latter grew by 6 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. (The Moscow Times, 04.26.21, Russia Matters, 04.30.21)
• The Russian Navy for the first time test-fired a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile in the Black Sea, the military announced April 30 with tensions still high following Russia’s troop buildup near Ukraine. “The Black Sea Fleet’s Moskva missile cruiser for the first time in recent history fired the Vulkan missile with the ship’s Bazalt main missile system in the waters of the Black Sea,” the Defense Ministry tweeted. (The Moscow Times, 04.30.21)
• A Soyuz rocket blasted off from the Vostochny cosmodrome in Russia's Far East April 26 carrying 36 U.K. OneWeb telecommunications and internet satellites, the Roscosmos space agency said. (AFP, 04.26.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A prominent Russian scientist accused of state treason has died from cancer at age 77. Viktor Kudryavtsev was charged in 2018 in connection with a suspected leak of hypersonic missile secrets to Belgium. He was later released after over a year in pre-trial detention after he was diagnosed with late-stage lung cancer. According to RBC, one of the pieces of evidence against the physicist was a fake U.S. “green card” permanent resident approval email found in Kudryavtsev’s spam folder. (The Moscow Times, 04.30.21)
• Prosecutors have asked the Moscow City Court to hand down prison terms ranging between seven years and 16 years to five former police officers suspected in the illegal apprehension of investigative journalist Ivan Golunov in 2019. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has once again offered to host a possible summit between Putin and Biden on his turf. In separate remarks, Kurz said April 26 he opposes new sanctions against Russia despite soaring tensions between the West and Moscow over a slew of accusations. “I’m against additional sanctions as an end in itself,” said Kurz. (The Moscow Times, 04.26.21, AP, 04.30.21)
• Hungary will start repayment of a 10 billion euro loan for building the two blocks at the Paks nuclear power plant from 2031 instead of 2026. The decision by Russia to modify the financial terms of the contract signals that Moscow is not expecting the new block to go operational before 2031, compared to the official 2025 start date. (bne IntelliNews, 04.30.21)
• The U.K. has announced its first round of sanctions under its new global anti-corruption regime, freezing assets and imposing restrictions on 14 individuals from Russia, as well as eight others from different parts of the world. The 14 Russians were hit with sanctions for their involvement in corruption uncovered by the late Sergei Magnitsky. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21)
• Sudan has suspended plans for Russia to open a naval logistics base in a key Red Sea port, Middle Eastern media reported April 28 in news that sparked immediate denials from Moscow. According to the Dubai-based Al Arabiya broadcaster’s Twitter account, Sudan has suspended the naval base agreement “signed by Moscow with the former regime.” Interfax, citing Bloomberg, added that Sudan has also stopped “any new Russian military deployment” in the Red Sea. (The Moscow Times, 04.29.21)                                                      
• Turkey reached a deal to acquire 50 million doses of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine as it grapples with delayed shipments of other drugs and new variants of coronavirus. (Financial Times, 04.29.21)
• Mexico's foreign minister has left for talks in Moscow on a plan to bottle Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine in Mexico after delays in the delivery of shipments from Russia. (RFE/RL, 04.26.21)
• The Brazilian federal health regulator has rejected importing Sputnik V after technical staff pointed to "inherent risks" and said there was a lack of information guaranteeing its safety, quality and effectiveness. Tainted batches of Sputnik V sent to Brazil carried a live version of a common cold-causing virus, Brazil’s health regulator reported. The developer of Sputnik V said April 29 it would sue Brazil's health regulator after it refused to import the vaccine. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21, AFP, 04.29.21)
• Russia could invest $11 billion in reconstruction projects in the mineral-rich Central African Republic, where rebel violence has led to mass displacement and Russian mercenaries are widely reported to be providing security services to the embattled military, Pascal Bida Koyagbélé, CAR's minister in charge of strategic investments, said. (The Moscow Times, 04.28.21)       
• Lavrov will take part in an online meeting of the U.N. Security Council on maintaining multilateralism and the U.N.-centricity of the system of international relations on May 7. (TASS, 04.29.21)            

Ukraine:

• If presidential elections were held this weekend, 28 percent of those who intend to vote and have made their choice would vote for Zelensky, according to a survey conducted between April 9 to 18. That is slightly up from 24.6 percent of Ukrainians who said they would vote for him, according to a poll conducted by the Social Monitoring Center from Feb. 19 to 28. In parliamentary elections, Zelensky’s Servant of the People party would take 19 percent of the vote, only one percentage point ahead of the pro-Russian Opposition Platform - For Life party. (bne IntelliNews, 04.27.21)
• Zelensky has called for a revamp of the 2015 accord intended to bring peace to the war-torn Donbass region with a bigger diplomatic role for the U.S., U.K. and Canada in ending the conflict. Zelensky urged the West to back changes to the Minsk II agreement. “The Minsk process should be more flexible in this situation. It should serve the purposes of today not of the past,” he said. The president called for the Normandy group to be “extended and expanded,” saying it was not just up to the U.S. to reboot the grouping, but that the U.K. and Canada should also participate. (Financial Times, 04.26.21)
• The United States welcomes the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border with Ukraine, and is in discussions with Moscow, said Sullivan. “We have noted the fact that they have withdrawn a significant number of their forces from the border and returned them to their usual bases. This is a constructive step,” Sullivan said, speaking at the Aspen Forum. (Freenews.live, 04.30.21)
• Blinken is scheduled to visit Ukraine next week to reiterate Washington’s support for the country amid Russia’s "aggression" and to push for further reforms. Blinken will visit Kyiv on May 5-6 after attending a meeting of the Group of Seven major industrialized nations in London, the State Department said. (RFE/RL, 04.30.21)
• Zelensky has urged the Ukrainian military to remain on alert despite Russia's drawdown of its troops from the country's borders, saying they could return "at any moment." (RFE/RL, 04.28.21)
• "The conflict with Russia will continue in the next 10 to 15 years. They will not leave us alone," said Oleksiy Arestovych, a national security adviser to the Zelensky administration. (Wall Street Journal, 04.28.21)    
• This fall, Ukrainian Navy officers will take part in Turkey’s Dogu Akdeniz 2021 naval exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean. Ukrainians are to be stationed aboard Turkey’s Ada-class corvettes. (Ukraine Business News, 04.26.21)
• Ukraine's SBU security service says it has arrested a local resident suspected of planning a Russian-ordered cyberattack on Ukrainian state institutions. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21)
• The Kremlin has rebuffed Zelensky’s offer to meet Putin in a one-on-one summit on the Donbass. (bne IntelliNews, 04.29.21)
• Moscow announced April 26 it was expelling a Ukrainian embassy worker, the latest in a wave of diplomatic expulsions that have embroiled Russian and European diplomats. Ukraine has declared the Russian consul in the Black Sea port city of Odessa as “persona non grata” after a second Ukrainian diplomat was kicked out of Russia in an ongoing diplomatic spat. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21, AFP, 04.26.21)
• By the end of this year, as many as one million Ukrainians living in Russia-controlled Donbass will receive Russian passports, said Viktor Vodolatsky, the deputy chair of Russia’s Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and Eurasian Integration. (Ukraine Business News, 04.26.21)
• Almost half of Russians blame the U.S. and its NATO allies for the escalation of tensions in eastern Ukraine, according to the results of a poll released April 29 by Russia’s leading independent pollster, the Levada Center. Forty-eight percent of respondents hold that view. Importantly, only 2 percent of Russians believe the situation in eastern Ukraine will inevitably escalate into a war, while 16 percent are confident that it will not. (Russia Matters, 04.29.21)
• Most Russians support the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine and do not believe Russia violated international agreements when it took the action in 2014, according to an independent survey published April 26. The Levada Center polling agency said 86 percent of respondents supported the annexation, while 71 percent of respondents did not see it as illegal and only 9 percent said they did. Among those who disapprove of the president's activities, the level of support for Russia’s action on Crimea is 75 percent. (The Moscow Times, 04.26.21)
• Participants in a meeting of the trilateral contact group (TCG) comprising Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE "reiterated their commitment" to the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, the special representative of the OSCE chairperson-in-office in Ukraine, Ambassador Heidi Grau, said April 29. "However—regrettably—no agreement was reached upon a TCG statement on responding to cease-fire violations and their elimination in the future," she added. (RFE/RL, 04.29.21)
• According to the OSCE, there have been nearly 9,000 cease-fire breaches so far in April, compared with around 3,000 a month earlier this year. Ukraine says more than 30 of its soldiers have been killed so far this year. (Wall Street Journal, 04.28.21)   
• Kyiv’s Western backers have raised deep concerns over the Ukrainian government's unexpected decision to replace the head of state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz. The government said April 28 that Andriy Kobolyev, Naftogaz’s chief since 2014, was dismissed from the post due to "unsatisfactory" results of the company’s operations last year, when it posted a loss of nearly $700 million. The move threatens to complicate talks to access a $5 billion bailout from the IMF. (RFE/RL, 04.30.21)
• Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denied to Zarif, that they had shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet in early 2020, killing 176 people and sparking huge protests. The military later admitted that they had accidentally shot it down. (Financial Times, 04.28.21)        

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Officials in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sought to ease tensions April 30 after major clashes between the neighbors left over a dozen dead and thousands displaced in Kyrgyzstan. Feuding factions on both sides of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border implemented a cease-fire on the evening of April 29 that ended some 24 hours of the worst and most widespread fighting the restive region has seen since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Shooting has broken out on the border over a dispute over land and water rights. The violence has left as many as two dozen dead and at least 150 wounded on both sides. (RFE/RL, 04.30.21, Defense Blog, 04.29.21, AFP, 04.30.21)
• Biden on April 24 became the first U.S. president to officially recognize the massacre of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire as a genocide. In a statement marking the 106th anniversary of the massacre's start, Biden wrote, "Each year on this day, we remember the lives of all those who died in the Ottoman-era Armenian genocide and recommit ourselves to preventing such an atrocity from ever again occurring." House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement April 24 that "our hearts are full of joy that President Biden has taken the historic step of joining Congress with formal recognition on Armenian Genocide Day.” The number of Armenians living in Turkey fell from 2 million in 1914 to under 400,000 by 1922. (CNN, 04.24.21)
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has tendered his resignation, formally freeing the way for parliamentary elections to be held in an effort to defuse a political crisis prompted by the country's war last year with Azerbaijan. “According to an agreement with the president and political forces, today I’m stepping down in order to hold early parliamentary polls on June 20," Pashinyan announced on Facebook April 25. (RFE/RL, 04.25.21)
• The New York Times reported April 15 that U.S. officials had been in contact with Kazakh, Uzbek and Tajik authorities about the possibility of using bases in the region. Blinken said in tweets that he had spoken on April 22 with the Uzbek and Kazakh foreign ministers, though it's not known if they discussed the possible use of military bases by U.S. or other NATO troops. (RFE/RL, 04.23.21)
• A court in Kazakhstan's southern Zhambyl region has handed down sentences to 51 defendants in a case over deadly ethnic clashes that shocked the Central Asian country in February 2020. The defendants, according to their roles in the clashes between Kazakhs and Kazakh citizens from the ethnic Dungan minority, were found guilty of various crimes including murder, organizing and participating in mass disorder, illegal arms and ammunition possession, robbery, separatism, threatening the lives of military personnel, armed mass disorder and hooliganism. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21)
• Turkmen regional authorities have banned lines outside state stores that sell food at subsidized prices after Deputy Prime Minister Serdar Berdymukhammedov, the president's son, publicly said that "crowds near stores discredit" his father. (RFE/RL, 04.28.21)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu has dissolved the Moldovan parliament and called snap elections for July 11, shortly after the Constitutional Court canceled a state of emergency that lawmakers had approved. Sandu, who came to office in November on a pro-European Union ticket, has accused the pro-Moscow, Socialist-dominated parliament of sabotaging her reform agenda. (RFE/RL, 04.29.21)
• Belarusian authorities expect to hold a referendum early next year on the constitutional amendments promised by authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko amid mass protests after a presidential election last year that opposition leaders and the West say was rigged. The chairwoman of Belarus's Central Election Commission, Lidziya Yarmoshyna, said April 27 that the referendum is likely to be held in January or February 2022 and not by the end of this year as some media reports have said. (RFE/RL, 04.27.21)
• Amnesty International says Belarusian workers are facing reprisals in their attempts to set up independent labor unions amid pro-democracy protests that followed a presidential election last year that opposition leaders and the West say was rigged. (RFE/RL, 04.28.21)
• Human rights watchdog Freedom House is warning of an "antidemocratic turn" in Europe and Eurasia. Russia and Belarus are categorized as “consolidated authoritarian regimes” with intensifying repression during the past year. Georgia’s score returned to where it had been in 2011. The report says Kyrgyzstan had a “jarring return to strongman rule” under President Sadyr Japarov. (RFE/RL, 04.28.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.