This Week’s Highlights

• Russia has published a wish list of security conditions it wants to negotiate with the United States and NATO. The proposed draft agreement between Moscow and NATO members would bar further NATO expansion, multiple news outlets report. A separate U.S.-Russian treaty, according to the Financial Times, would oblige the signatories to refrain from deploying heavy bombers, surface warships and short- and medium-range land-based missiles in areas outside national airspace and outside national territorial waters if they can strike targets in the territory of the other party from those areas. The newspaper notes that Moscow’s demands go even further than the “red lines” mentioned by President Vladimir Putin, who has said they are needed to insulate Moscow from the threat of attack, and many have previously been ruled out by NATO and its members.
• The U.S. Senate passed a $768 billion defense bill on Dec. 15, sending legislation to President Joe Biden that will add about $570 million in additional funding to the European Deterrence Initiative and $50 million in additional military assistance to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, The New York Times reports; stripped from the legislation were new sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

• The leaders of Russia and China spoke for 90 minutes, seeking to display a unified front in the face of both countries' increasingly tense relations with the West and hailing their relations during a video call on Dec. 15. The Financial Times notes that Putin and Xi’s call was the 37th meeting between them since 2013. According to the Kremlin, Putin told Xi that talks with NATO and the United States are necessary to obtain legally binding security guarantees and Xi responded by saying he “understands Russia's concerns and fully supports our initiative to work out these security guarantees for Russia,” according to several news reports. The New York Times quoted a Kremlin aide as saying Xi told Putin that ''in its closeness and effectiveness, this relationship even exceeds an alliance.''
• EU leaders have agreed to co-ordinate with allies over potential sanctions against Moscow in the event of an invasion of Ukraine and charged the bloc’s officials with preparing punitive measures, the Financial Times reports, possibly including cutting Russian banks off from SWIFT, targeted sanctions against Russian banks and oligarchs and restrictions on certain technology exports to Russia. EU leaders also agreed to continue encouraging diplomatic efforts toward the Minsk Agreements.
• According to the Levada Center, 45% of Russian respondents recently said they view the U.S. positively compared with 42% who view it negatively, showing a significant improvement since spring, when just 31% held a favorable view of the country, The Moscow Times and AFP report.

Dear readers: Please be advised that Russia in Review will resume publication on Jan. 7 due to Harvard’s winter recess. We wish you all happy holidays and the best in the New Year!

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• “The use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials and expertise remained a credible terrorist threat in 2020,” according to the U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2020. The report contained multiple references to The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, including a subsection on GICNT and references to Australia, Pakistan, Jordan and Sri Lanka participating in it. However, the report did not mention Russia in the GICNT context, even though it remains a co-chair of that initiative. (Russia Matters, 12.16.21)
• On Dec. 13-14, 2021, a meeting of the advisory body of the Organization of the CIS Member States on the Management of Spent Nuclear Fuel, Radioactive Waste and Decommissioning of Nuclear and Radiation Hazardous Facilities took place in Moscow, according to Rosatom. The meeting participants discussed the current state of infrastructure facilities for handling nuclear materials, ongoing projects for the decommissioning of nuclear facilities, as well as planned measures to improve and harmonize the regulatory framework. (Russia Matters, 12.14.21)
• In an interview for a program that aired on Russian television Dec. 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled how, in his view, representatives of the American secret services were trying to infiltrate “everything” in Russia in the 1990s. In particular, according to Putin, American specialists were present at some enterprises of the Russian nuclear complex. “They sat at our enterprises and went there as if to work every day,” he said, according to Meduza’s summary of the interview.  (Russia Matters, 12.12.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia does not share the position of the E3 that the talks on the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal are close to a deadlock, Russian Permanent Envoy to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said. (Interfax, 12.15.21)
• One day after Iran agreed to reinstall surveillance cameras at one of its nuclear facilities, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said the U.N.'s atomic watchdog will not be able to examine images from the cameras until sanctions are lifted. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Russia has published a wish list of security conditions it wants to negotiate with the United States and NATO. Moscow’s demands go even further than the “red lines” mentioned by Putin, who has said they are needed to insulate Moscow from the threat of attack, and many have previously been ruled out by NATO and its members. Russia’s foreign ministry posted them on its website on Dec. 17 after handing them to the U.S. this week. (Financial Times, 12.17.21, RFE/RL, 12.17.21)
  • The proposed draft agreement between Moscow and NATO members would bar further NATO expansion, limit military exercises in a designated buffer area to no more than brigade level, and would bar the deployment of ground-based intermediate and shorter-range missiles "in areas from which they are capable of hitting targets on the territory of other participants." The demands on NATO would prevent the alliance carrying out any military activity outside its territory in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The published proposal also suggests that the NATO-Russia Council be used to resolve disputes and a hotline be set up to deal with emergencies. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21, The Washington Post, 12.17.21)
    • In its draft proposals, Russia called for NATO to "accept obligations that preclude further NATO enlargement, including the accession of Ukraine, as well as other states." While Georgia was not specifically mentioned in the document, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made clear on Dec. 17 that Moscow had the South Caucasus country in mind. "We directly demand the withdrawal of the known decision from NATO’s 2008 summit in Bucharest in which it was said that Ukraine and Georgia will become NATO members,” he said. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21)
  • The proposed U.S.-Russian treaty would oblige the signatories to refrain from flying heavy bombers equipped with nuclear or non-nuclear weapons, from deploying surface warships of all classes in areas outside national airspace and outside national territorial waters respectively if they can strike targets in the territory of the other Party from those areas. The proposed treaty would also bar the signatories from deploying short and medium range land-based missiles in areas both inside and outside their national territories if they can strike targets in the territory of the other Party from those areas. The U.S. would also pledge not to set up bases in any former Soviet countries or partner with their militaries. (Russia Matters, 12.17.21, Financial Times, 12.17.21)
    • "It is fundamentally important for us that the guarantees of Russian security are put on paper and [are] as legally binding as possible," Ryabkov said. "There is no other option, since a characteristic feature of the current stage of relations between Russia and the collective West is a complete lack of trust." Ryabkov said Moscow wanted to begin negotiations over its proposals in Geneva as soon as possible. At a press briefing Dec. 17, Ryabkov also said Russia might be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe due to "indirect indications" that NATO was planning on deploying such missiles. Ryabkov has described Washington and NATO's response to Russia's security proposals as discouraging. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21, The Wall Street Journal, 12.17.21, Financial Times, 12.17.21) 
• Commenting on Russia's suggestion that Moscow was ready "at any moment" to start talks on its proposals, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Dec. 17 that the U.S. had seen the conditions but would hold "no talks on European security" without its allies. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21)
• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, commenting on the proposals just before Russia made them public, said that "any dialogue with Moscow would also need to address NATO’s concerns about Russia’s actions, be based on core principles and documents of European security and take place in consultation with NATO's European partners, such as Ukraine." Stoltenberg has made an offer of “meaningful dialogue” with Moscow in exchange for “aggressor” Russia standing down troops near Ukraine. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.17.21, RFE/RL, 12.17.21)
• Putin said on Dec. 15 that Russia has sent the U.S. its proposals on mutual security guarantees amid high tensions between the countries over Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Ministry passed the offer to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried, who was in Moscow this week after visiting Kyiev. Donfried said the U.S. will share Russia's proposals with its allies and partners. Prior to that, Putin had again called for "immediate" talks with the U.S. and NATO over security guarantees as tensions mount over Ukraine. Speaking on Dec. 14, Putin reiterated the demand in phone calls with his Finnish and French counterparts. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.15.21, RFE/RL, 12.14.21, RFE/RL, 12.15.21)
• “Our response will be military” if the Western military bloc does not guarantee an end to its eastward expansion, Ryabkov said Dec. 13. “There will be confrontation,” he added, warning that Moscow would deploy weapons that were previously banned under the INF Treaty, which expired in 2019. “Currently, [these banned weapons] do not exist; we have a unilateral moratorium. We call on NATO and the United States to join this moratorium,” Ryabkov said, lamenting that “they just don’t respond to our proposals.” (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.13.21)
• “We have been very clear that NATO's door remains open to those who aspire to membership and can meet the criteria. There's something bigger even than Ukraine that's at stake here. It really goes to some basic principles of the way the international system functions or should function,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. (The Wall Street Journal, 12.12.21)
• The Senate passed a $768 billion defense bill on Dec. 15, sending legislation to U.S. President Joe Biden that will increase the Pentagon's budget by roughly $24 billion more than he requested. The Senators sent an additional $2 billion to the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a Pentagon program dedicated to bolstering the department's posture in the region, authorizing a total of $7 billion for it. They also boosted two similar programs aimed at confronting the rising threat from Moscow, adding about $570 million in additional funding to the European Deterrence Initiative and $50 million in additional military assistance to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Stripped from the legislation were new sanctions on Nord Stream 2. (The New York Times, 12.15.21)
  • The Biden administration prepared a $200 million package of additional military assistance for Ukraine in recent weeks but held off on delivering the aid. (NBC, 12.11.21)
• The Biden administration is scrambling to develop plans for providing compensation and improved medical care to diplomats, intelligence officers and other personnel affected by mysterious health incidents, part of an attempt to strengthen the response to a phenomenon known as "Havana Syndrome." But the evolving effort to deal with the episodes is complicated by officials' inability to establish a clear diagnosis for a spate of symptoms that while sometimes debilitating are also common, and to identify who or what is causing them. (The Washington Post, 12.15.21)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• The leaders of Russia and China sought to display a unified front in the face of both countries' increasingly tense relations with the West, hailing their "model" relations during a video call Dec. 15. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call was the 37th meeting between them since 2013. “President Xi, my dear friend, I am delighted to see you,” Putin told Xi in his opening remarks during their video call. “President Putin, my old friend,” Xi said. (Financial Times, 12.15.21, Kremlin.ru, 12.15.21)
  • According to the Kremlin, Putin, who has demanded guarantees that NATO will not expand to Ukraine or deploy troops and weapons there, told Xi that talks with NATO and the U.S. are necessary to obtain legally binding security guarantees. Xi responded by saying he “understands Russia's concerns and fully supports our initiative to work out these security guarantees for Russia,” the Kremlin said (RFE/RL, 12.15.21. The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.15.21)
  • The two leaders discussed forming an “independent financial infrastructure,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said, to reduce their reliance on Western banks and their vulnerability to punitive measures from the West. Ushakov described the 1.5-hour call as a conversation between "two colleagues and two friends.” (The New York Times, 12.15.21, The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.15.21)
  • During their video conference, Putin described Russian-Chinese relations as “comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction.” The Kremlin said Putin told Xi that "a new model of cooperation has been formed between our countries" that includes a "determination to turn our common border into a belt of eternal peace and good-neighborliness." Putin also confirmed he would attend Beijing's Winter Olympics. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.15.21, Financial Times, 12.15.21, Kremlin.ru, 12.15.21)
  • Xi told Putin that ''in its closeness and effectiveness, this relationship even exceeds an alliance,'' according to Ushakov. (The New York Times, 12.15.21)
  • Xi told Putin that he “highly appreciated” Russia’s “strong support of China’s efforts to protect its key international interests,” according to the official Xinhua news agency. “Certain international forces are interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia, and trampling on international law and recognized norms of international relations,” Xi said “China and Russia should carry out more joint actions to safeguard the security interests of both parties.” (Financial Times, 12.15.21)
  • From January to November this year, Russian-Chinese trade increased by 31% to $123 billion, according to Putin. (Kremlin.ru, 12.15.21)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• “We cannot see any progress [in U.S.-Russian relations], with the exception of the launch of several structured dialogues in areas that are certainly important as pivotal aspects of international security—I am referring to strategic stability and ICT security,” Ryabkov was quoted as saying in the Dec. 13 issue of Izvestia. He also said the Russian side proposes that security guarantees and non-crossing of red lines are discussed within the framework of the dialogue on strategic stability, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s website. (Russia Matters, 12.14.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• “Though the United States and Russia continued to share information on terrorist threats at the working level, the formal counterterrorism dialogue framework remained on hold because of public, unfounded statements by Russian security officials alleging U.S. support for ISIS,” according to the U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2020. (U.S. State Department, December 2021)
• Russia’s FSB Director General Alexander Bortnikov reported in a December meeting of the National Antiterrorism Committee that in 2020, law enforcement agencies and special services prevented 41 terrorist attacks, killed 49 militants, detained 753 suspects and dismantled 55 terrorist cells, according to the U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2020. (U.S. State Department, December 2021)

Conflict in Syria:

• The EU imposed sanctions on Russian private military contractor Wagner Group on Dec. 13 as well as on eight individuals and three other energy companies in Syria, accusing the group of clandestine operations on the Kremlin's behalf. (Reuters, 12.13.21)
• Russia denounces the strikes upon Syria near Latakia that Israel recently delivered, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said. (Interfax, 12.09.21)
• Talon Anvil, a top-secret American strike cell, launched tens of thousands of bombs and missiles against the Islamic State in Syria, but in the process of hammering a vicious enemy, the shadowy force sidestepped safeguards and repeatedly killed civilians, according to multiple current and former military and intelligence officials. (The New York Times, 12.12.21)

Cyber security:

• Six months ago, Biden warned Putin in a face-to-face meeting that he must rein in criminal ransomware hackers operating on Russian territory or face consequences. Since then, there's been no reduction in the overall pace of ransomware attacks from Russia, government officials have said. The good news is there's been a lull since July in the sort of economy-rattling ransomware attacks that prompted the Biden-Putin standoff, such as the May attack against Colonial Pipeline that threatened U.S. gas supplies and prompted panic buying at gas stations. (The Washington Post, 12.16.21)
• The U.K. said Dec. 14 that the “free and open internet” was at risk from censorship by China and Russia, with Western allies in a race to write the rules governing cyber space. The warning was contained in a document setting out the country’s new cyber strategy, which predicted a “clash of values” between world powers as the U.K. developed its cyber warfare capabilities. (Financial Times, 12.14.21)
• Ukrainian law enforcement arrested 51 suspects believed to have been selling stolen personal data on hacking forums belonging to hundreds of millions worldwide, including 300 million people in the U.S. and EU. (Bleeping Computer, 12.13.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The approval process for Nord Stream 2 is likely to drag into the second half of 2022, German energy regulator BNetzA said Dec. 16. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.16.21)

• Benchmark European gas prices are more than seven times as high as a year ago at 127.77 euros ($144) a megawatt-hour, having jumped by more than a quarter over the past week. In a sign that traders expect the shortfall to last for months, prices for contracts that expire deep into 2022 have shot up alongside those that require imminent delivery of gas. (The Wall Street Journal, 12.15.21)
• The European Commission on Dec. 15 unveiled an update of its gas market rules, which includes a prohibition on member states entering gas contracts with non-EU countries that run beyond 2049—the last year before the EU aims to hit its net zero greenhouse gas emissions target. (Financial Times, 12.15.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• In the first nine months of 2021, U.S. companies imported more than $157 million worth of firearm cartridges from Russia. This is already more than in the entire year of 2016, which saw a record value of such ammunition imported, according to RBC. (Russia Matters, 12.16.21)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• During their video call on Dec. 7, Putin told Biden he would "really like" to meet for more talks, according to a video clip released by Russian state TV. In the clip, Putin told Biden: "We will definitely meet, I would really like that." Asked what it would take for Biden to agree to an in-person meeting, Blinken did not comment directly, but he said generally the U.S. and partners in Europe are "looking to see de-escalation.” (CNN, 12.12.21)
• In his interview with Izvestia, Ryabkov claimed that it was the U.S. side’s idea to request “that our diplomatic mission staff who have been in the United States for over three years need to leave” and that Moscow had to reciprocate. (Russia Matters, 12.14.21)
• A Swiss court has published its decision to allow the extradition of a Kremlin-linked Russian businessman to the U.S. The Federal Criminal Court in Zurich on Dec. 13 made public its Nov. 16 ruling that upheld a previous rejection of Vladislav Klyushin's argument that he was a victim of a U.S. political campaign to prosecute him on trumped-up insider-trading charges. (RFE/RL, 12.13.21)
• A magistrate court in Moscow ruled in separate hearings on Dec. 16 that Twitter must pay 10 million rubles ($135,300), Meta 13 million rubles ($176,000) and TikTok 4 million rubles ($54,130) for failing or refusing to delete banned content as instructed in an earlier ruling. (RFE/RL, 12.16.21)
• U.S. border patrol officers fired at two vehicles attempting to smuggle at least 18 undocumented Russian migrants from Mexico, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said Dec. 14. The dramatic incident comes amid a tenfold increase in CBP encounters with migrants from Russia, from 467 in 2020 to 4,103 so far in 2021. Observers link the uptick to Mexico easing travel for Russian passport holders and migrants from ex-Soviet Uzbekistan using Russian passports to cross the Mexican-U.S. border. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.16.21)
• A former U.S. defense contractor faces life in prison for attempting to pass U.S. fighter jet secrets to Russia, the Department of Justice said Dec. 16. John Murray Rowe Jr., a test engineer for multiple defense contractors for nearly 40 years, was said to have raised suspicions after revealing “a fervent interest in Russian affairs,” including asking his employer whether he could “obtain a security clearance from the Russian government.” These actions resulted in his termination from employment. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.17.21)
• According to Levada, 45% of Russian respondents said they view the U.S. positively compared with 42% who view the U.S. negatively. Another 13% did not answer. “For the first time since July 2018, the share of respondents who view the U.S. positively exceeded the share of those who view it negatively,” the Levada Center said. Russians’ attitudes toward the U.S. have improved significantly since spring 2021, when just 31% said they held a favorable view of the country. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.16.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russians with coronavirus antibodies from both foreign and domestic vaccines will be able to get a QR code valid for six months, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said Dec. 13. (The Moscow Times, 12.13.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• Russian lawmakers have approved the first reading of a bill on the introduction of QR codes for citizens to help prevent the spread of COVID-19, though not without a fight. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21)
• Russia claimed its Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine provides “robust” long-term protection against the Omicron variant Dec. 17, contradicting the findings of an independent study which found the Russian jab produced no antibody response whatsoever to the new, highly transmissible variant. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.21)
• Russia’s Central Bank has raised interest rates for the seventh consecutive time as the country struggles to tame surging inflation, which has jumped to above double the official target. The regulator hiked its key rate by a full percentage point Dec. 17, taking borrowing costs to 8.5%, their highest level in four years. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.17.21)
• Russia’s Central Bank is mulling a ban on investing in cryptocurrency, Reuters reported Dec. 16. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.17.21)
• Two out of five Russians have no savings, according to a Superjob recruitment website survey published by the RBC news website Dec. 13. According to the poll, 43% of respondents said they have no savings whatsoever. That figure is an increase from 40% in each of the previous two years and 28% in 2008, according to RBC. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.13.21)
• Russia’s top social media platform, VKontakte, has appointed the son of an influential Kremlin insider as its new chief executive, the company announced Dec. 13. Vladimir Kiriyenko—whose father Sergei Kiriyenko is first deputy chief of staff in the presidential administration—will become the CEO of VK Group, which controls VKontakte and a number of other internet businesses, “effective immediately.” (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.13.21)
• A bill that would allow Russia's regional leaders to serve more than two consecutive terms in office and abolish the title of president in the autonomous Russian republic of Tatarstan has been approved after two final readings by the lower chamber of the Russian parliament. (RFE/RL, 12.14.21)
• Russia's Supreme Court has resumed a hearing into a request by federal prosecutors to shut down one of the post-Soviet world's oldest and most prestigious human rights organizations, Memorial International. Judge Alla Nazarova started the hearing Dec. 14. (RFE/RL, 12.14.21)
• A court in Moscow has ordered the Memorial Human Rights Center—one of the post-Soviet world's oldest and most prestigious human rights organizations—to pay a 500,000 ruble ($6,800) fine for allegedly violating Russia’s controversial "foreign agent" legislation. (RFE/RL, 12.15.21)
• The two journalists awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Ressa and Dmitri Muratov, used their acceptance speeches on Dec. 10 to express alarm about the threats to democracies and call for greater accountability for social media companies that Ressa said are dividing and radicalizing societies. (The New York Times, 12.10.21)
• A Russian woman who worked with supporters of jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny in Saratov says she has received political asylum in the Netherlands. Olga Kuznetsova wrote on Instagram Dec. 15 that she had obtained asylum but didn’t say when. (RFE/RL, 12.16.21)
• A Russian court has handed lengthy prison terms to seven people who led protests in Ingushetia against a change to the administrative boundaries between the Russian North Caucasus regions of Chechnya and Ingushetia. On Dec. 15, the court in the city of Yessentuki, in the Stavropol Krai region, sentenced Malsag Uzhakhov, Akhmed Barakhoyev, and Musa Malsagov to nine years each; Barakh Chemurziyev, Bagaudin Khautiyev, and Ismail Nalgiyev to eight years each; and Zarifa Sautiyeva to 7 1/2 years in prison. (RFE/RL, 12.15.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia leads the world in hypersonic missiles and will likely develop new technology to “fight” other countries’ weapons by the time they catch up, Putin said Dec. 12. Speaking in the same documentary film where he lamented the Soviet collapse, Putin said Russia and the U.S. currently have approximate parity in the number of warheads and their carriers. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.13.21)
• Russia’s Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik (Hunter) in pre-serial configuration was unveiled at the Novosibirsk Aviation Enterprise during the visit of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko. (Defense Blog, 12.14.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has disclosed roughly 85 crimes related to the financing of terrorism and 17 others for extremism since the start of 2021, which are 18 and seven, respectively, more than the same period last year, Chief of the Main Directorate of economic security and combating corruption, Police Lt. Gen. Andrei Kurnosenko told TASS. (TASS, 12.09.21)
• Four defendants in a high-profile case involving almost 400 kilograms of cocaine found on the premises of the Russian Embassy in Argentina in 2018 have been found guilty. The convicted men face up to 25 years in prison each. (RFE/RL, 12.14.21)
• A court in Moscow has handed lengthy prison terms to two men after a jury found them guilty of killing the notorious crime kingpin Yaponchik (The Little Japanese) more than 12 years ago. The Moscow City Court on Dec. 13 sentenced Dzhambul Dzhanashia to 15 years, and Murtaz Shadania to 16 years in prison for the killing of Vyacheslav Ivankov. (RFE/RL, 12.13.21)
• The European Court of Human Rights has ordered Russia to pay compensation to four victims of domestic violence, including Margarita Grachyova, whose husband used an ax to cut off her hands four years ago. According to the ECHR's Dec. 14 decision, the Russian government must pay more than 370,660 euros ($418,000) to Grachyova to cover her past and future medical expenses and moral and physical sufferings. (RFE/RL, 12.15.21)
• Russian authorities say they have detained the main owner and three top managers of a Siberian coal mine where an explosion killed 51 people in November. The Russian Investigative Committee detained SDS-Ugol Chairman Mikhail Fedyaev, the company’s director-general, Gennady Alekseyev, its technical director Anton Yakutov and the chief engineer of the coal mine, Anatoly Lobanov, the committee said in a statement Dec. 15. (RFE/RL, 12.15.21)
• A court in Moscow has rejected a request to release from pretrial detention the chief executive of a leading Russian cybersecurity company who was arrested in September on charges of state treason. The Moscow City Court on Dec. 16 ruled that a lower court's Nov. 23 decision to extend Ilya Sachkov's pretrial detention until Feb. 28, 2022, was legal and cannot be changed. (RFE/RL, 12.16.21)
• The U.S. has warned Mali against deploying Russia-backed Wagner Group forces, saying a reported deal between the country and the private military contractor would divert money away from efforts to fight terrorism and could ultimately destabilize the region. Wagner Group forces “will not bring peace to Mali, but rather will destabilize the country further," State Department spokesman Ned Price said Dec. 15. (RFE/RL, 12.16.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia has vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that sought to formally link climate change and global security. The resolution, drafted by Niger and Ireland, called for "information on the security implications of climate change" to be addressed by the Security Council. (RFE/RL, 12.14.21)
  • A U.N. agency has confirmed that an Arctic temperature record of 38 degrees Celsius was reached in eastern Siberia. The record was hit on June 20, 2020, in the town of Verkhoyansk, which is located 115 kilometers north of the Arctic Circle in the northern part of Sakha Republic (Yakutia), the World Meteorological Organization said. (RFE/RL, 12.14.21)
• Russia has rejected a Berlin court's ruling that Moscow was behind the shooting death of a former Chechen militant in Berlin more than two years ago, calling it "completely divorced from reality" and warned of retaliation over the issue, which Germany's new chancellor defended. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Dec. 16 that the court's comments during the delivery of a guilty verdict and life sentence for Russian national Vadim Krasikov, aka Vadim Sokolov, were "an unpleasant episode" in ties between the two countries. (RFE/RL, 12.16.21)
• The Levada Center sees Russians growing more positive toward the EU, with favorability growing from 38% in May to 48% in November. The EU’s unfavorable rating has also decreased from 45% to 38% over the same period. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.16.21)
• The daughter of Navalny has urged EU governments to stand up to Putin, as she collected the Sakharov Prize on his behalf during a ceremony in the French city of Strasbourg. (RFE/RL, 12.15.21)

• All foreigners working in Russia will be required to undergo quarterly comprehensive health examinations, including tests for sexually transmitted diseases, from Dec. 29 under a controversial law designed to improve health safety in the country. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.14.21)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine's Defense Ministry said Dec. 17 that one of its soldiers was killed and one wounded after separatists opened fire from mortars, grenade launchers and machine guns at Ukrainian military positions overnight in Donbass. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21)
• One serviceman was killed and another injured after the Ukrainian military used an unmanned aerial vehicle, the people's militia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said Dec. 10. (Interfax, 12.10.21)
• Facing a building threat from Russia, Ukraine’s president sought security guarantees from NATO’s chief in a meeting on Dec. 16 and came away with a renewed commitment that his country could eventually join the military alliance despite stiff objections from its Russian neighbors. (The New York Times, 12.16.21)
• A Russian court’s fraud conviction may have inadvertently revealed the deployment of Russian troops in separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine. A district court in Russia’s Rostov region located on the Ukrainian border disclosed that a convicted senior manager was in charge of buying, stocking and selling food to Russian troops stationed in eastern Ukraine. “This food was intended to be sent to military units of the Russian Armed Forces stationed on the territory of the DNR and LNR,” the court said in its verdict. The U.S. RFE/RL news organization estimated that the bi-weekly supplies of 1,300 tons of products mentioned in the court documents would feed around 26,000 Russian troops. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.16.21)
• The U.S. has not indicated any appetite for deploying troops directly to Ukraine. But Biden said Washington would “continue to provide for, and we have and continued to provide for the defense capacities for the Ukrainian people.” He also suggested that Russia would pay “a terrible price” in terms of its image if it were to attack Ukraine. (Financial Times. 12.11.21)
• EU leaders have agreed to coordinate with allies over potential sanctions against Moscow in the event of an invasion of Ukraine and charged the bloc’s officials with preparing punitive measures. The list of possible sanctions to be prepared by Brussels officials will include cutting Russian banks off from the SWIFT network, an escalation of financial restrictions that would make it difficult for Russian corporates to do business with the rest of the world, people briefed on the discussions told FT. Other potential measures included targeted sanctions against private Russian banks, restrictions on certain technology exports to Russia—including those related to telecommunications and chemicals industries—and individual injunctions against Russian oligarchs. But German officials said no concrete sanctions were discussed in Dec. 16’s meeting. EU leaders also agreed to continue encouraging “diplomatic efforts, especially in the Normandy format to achieve the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements.” (Financial Times, 12.17.21)
  • The Biden administration has been pushing EU allies to finalize a broad package of sanctions against Russian banks and energy companies that could be imposed jointly with the U.S. if the Kremlin attacked Ukraine, according to people familiar with the discussions. Some potential steps on the list, such as cutting Russia off from SWIFT, are considered extremely problematic, the people said, citing the potential disruption of global markets for energy and other Russian exports. (Bloomberg, 12.16.21)
• More than a dozen NATO countries have military advisers in Ukraine, including 150 from the U.S. Special Forces and National Guard. The U.S. alone has spent $2.5 billion in security assistance, which has included high-tech surveillance equipment, armed patrol boats and Javelin anti-tank systems. (The New York Times, 12.16.21)
• Ukraine's State Border Guard Service and the Embassy of the United States signed a plan of joint measures to strengthen the northern and eastern parts of the Ukrainian border. The project will commence from January 2022, with the total aid expected to amount to $20 million. (Interfax, 12.13.21)
• Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) have warned Russia that it faces "massive consequences" and "severe" costs if it launches a military attack on Ukraine. The warning came on Dec. 12 during a G7 meeting in the English city of Liverpool where delegates said they were united in their condemnation of Russia's military buildup near its border with Ukraine. The G7 ministers called on Moscow to de-escalate the situation. (RFE/RL, 12.12.21)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Financial Times that Berlin had in the last month vetoed Ukraine’s purchase of anti-drone rifles and anti-sniper systems via the NATO Support and Procurement Agency. However, Germany had since relented on the first item after deeming it non-lethal. (Financial Times, 12.12.21)
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned Putin that any "destabilizing action" by Moscow against Ukraine would be a "strategic mistake" with "significant consequences," a spokesman said. (RFE/RL, 12.13.21)
• Russia’s continuing military deployment, while larger than that seen earlier this year, is still missing some critical equipment and capabilities typically required for a sustained offensive, says a senior Western intelligence official, adding that these elements could be brought to the border rapidly if needed. (Financial Times, 12.10.21)
• Ryabkov derided the United States’ “inexplicable fixation” on the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. “This isn’t so and cannot be,” he said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.13.21)
• Russia has blocked off nearly 70% of the Sea of Azov around the Crimean Peninsula, the Ukrainian Navy has announced. (RFE/RL, 12.11.21)
• Russia said Dec. 16 that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world stood on the brink of nuclear war. Ryabkov made the comment when asked by a reporter if the current situation could turn into something resembling the 1962 Cold War standoff. (Reuters, 12.09.21)
• Last week, when talking to the presidential council on human rights in Moscow, Putin accused Kyiv of "something that reminds us of genocide." The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv responded on Twitter on Dec. 13 by saying Putin's accusation was "false,...dangerous, and irresponsible." (RFE/RL, 12.13.21)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that he does not exclude the possibility of holding a referendum on the status of the occupied territories of ORDLO and the Crimean peninsula. (Interfax, 12.10.21)
• Zelenskiy said that, “thanks to the U.S.,” one more platform for talks with Russia may appear, in addition to the so-called Normandy format that involves France and Germany. Kommersant has earlier reported that Victoria Nuland could engage in shuttle diplomacy for the purpose of resolving the Ukrainian conflict. (RFE/RL, 12.11.21, Russia Matters, 12.11.21)
• Zelenskiy said he allows for the possibility of holding direct negotiations with Putin and that his partners in the EU and the U.S. would support this. Fifty-six percent of Ukrainians support direct talks with Russia on settlement in Donbass in the absence of alternatives, the Rating sociological group said Dec. 10. (Interfax, 12.10.21)
• Pope Francis has joined the international chorus of concern over tensions stemming from a Russian troop buildup near its border with Ukraine, urging dialogue to resolve strains and avoid armed conflict. The Pope told an audience of thousands at St. Peter's Square in the Vatican on Dec. 12 that "weapons are not the path to take." (RFE/RL, 12.12.21)
• Some 41.4% of Ukrainians consider the current policy of Hungary regarding the Hungarian national minority in Zakarpattia—financing schools, teachers, providing grants to entrepreneurs, etc.—a preparation for the possible annexation of these territories to Hungary. (Interfax, 12.13.21)
• Of European countries, some 47.8% of Ukrainians would like to leave for permanent or temporary work in Germany, if they had the opportunity, according to the results of a study conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation jointly with Kyiv.  (Interfax, 12.13.21)
• Zelenskiy is leading the presidential rating with a result of 23.5% support from respondents according to the results of a survey conducted by the sociological group Rating on Dec. 6-8. Some 13.4% of respondents are ready to support former president Petro Poroshenko, leader of the Batkivschyna party Yulia Tymoshenko got 9.9%, leader of the Opposition Platform - For Life party Yuriy Boiko received 9.3%, and former Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Dmytro Razumkov received 7.5%. (Interfax, 12.11.21)
• Half of those polled by the Levada Center in Russia believe the U.S. and other NATO countries are the initiators of the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine. Some 16% think that Ukraine was the initiator of the escalation, 3% think it was the unrecognized republics of the DPR and LPR and 4% think it was Russia, according to the survey conducted on Nov. 25-Dec. 1, 2021. More than 75% say they cannot rule out that the current tensions can escalate into a war between Russia and Ukraine. (Russia Matters, 12.14.21)
• A court in Ukraine has sentenced Ukrainian citizen Viktor Mykhed to 11 years in prison over his alleged involvement in the conflict in the country's east alongside Russia-backed separatists. (RFE/RL, 12.15.21)
• Ukraine, Canada, Sweden and Britain have told Iran that it has three weeks to reverse its refusal to address demands for reparations after the downing of a Ukrainian passenger airliner last year. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Putin has said the collapse of the Soviet Union spelled the end of "historical Russia," revealing he drove a taxi to make ends meet following the USSR's fall. Putin, a former agent of the Soviet Union's KGB security services, who has previously lamented the USSR's fall, said the disintegration three decades ago remains a "tragedy" for "most citizens." It was the disintegration of historical Russia under the name of the Soviet Union," Putin said in a documentary film called “Russia. Recent History” that aired on state television on Dec. 12. (RFE/RL, 12.13.21, RFE/RL, 12.12.21)
• In the documentary aired Dec. 12, Putin spoke about the personal impact the collapse of the Soviet Union had on him. He said the period of economic and social instability that followed put many into poverty and even impacted his life, claiming he was occasionally forced to drive a car to earn extra money, something many across the country did to supplement their incomes. "Sometimes I had to earn extra money," he said. "I mean, earn extra money by car, as a private driver. It's unpleasant to talk about, to be honest, but unfortunately that was the case." (RFE/RL, 12.13.21)
• The unconditional release of all political prisoners in Belarus remains the top goal of the United States, the U.S. special envoy to Belarus, Julie Fisher, told RFE/RL after harsh prison sentences were handed down to a group of bloggers, opposition activists and the husband of exiled opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Fisher's comments came a day after popular video blogger Syarhey Tsikhanouski, who intended to run against authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko before being disqualified and arrested, was sentenced to 18 years in prison for his activism. Five other activists, including blogger and RFE/RL consultant Ihar Losik, were handed sentences of between 14 years and 16 years for their activism. (RFE/RL, 12.14.21, RFE/RL, 12.16.21)
• Belarusian banks are preparing for tougher Western sanctions by signing up to Russia’s alternative to the SWIFT, the international financial messaging network that underpins the global banking system, Russia’s Moskovsky Komsomolets tabloid has reported. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 12.14.21)
• The U.S. has slapped visa bans on Ihar Kenyukh and Yauheni Shapetska of Minsk's notorious Akrestsina detention center for their involvement in "gross violations" of human rights following last year's "fraudulent" presidential election that handed Lukashenko a sixth consecutive term in office. (RFE/RL, 12.11.21)
• A court in Minsk has sentenced noted blogger Eduard Palchys to 13 years in prison amid an ongoing crackdown on those who have challenged the official results of last year's presidential election that handed victory to Lukashenko. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21)
• An American who has fled to Belarus has been indicted on charges of assaulting police officers and other crimes related to the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Evan Neumann was indicted in Washington on Dec. 10 on 14 criminal counts. The indictment expands on charges originally contained in a criminal complaint filed against Neumann in March. (RFE/RL, 12.11.21)
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held “significant” EU-mediated talks in Brussels, European Council President Charles Michel said. Aliyev and Pashinian agreed that “further tangible steps” need to be taken to reduce tensions and create a conducive atmosphere ahead of planned delimitation and demarcation talks, the European Council said in a statement. (RFE/RL, 12.15.21)
• Neighbors Turkey and Armenia have announced that they will appoint special envoys on mending relations that have been strained for decades. (RFE/RL, 12.14.21)
• The ousted first president of independent Kyrgyzstan, Askar Akaev, has arrived in Bishkek for the second time since August for questioning in connection with an investigation into possible corruption around one of the world's biggest gold mines, Kumtor. (RFE/RL, 12.14.21)
  • Kyrgyzstan has filed a lawsuit against Canada's Centerra Gold company, accusing it of violating the rights of employees at the Kumtor gold mine, which the Canadian firm ran for many years. (RFE/RL, 12.17.21)
• Tajik President Emomali Rahmon on Dec. 15 appointed his third daughter, Ruhshona Rahmonova, to be the country’s ambassador to Britain. (RFE/RL, 12.16.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.