This week’s highlights:

• As Russia’s election campaign season gears up, the Russian Defense Ministry is reportedly polling soldiers on their willingness to crack down on protestors.
• Russian scientists at a top-secret facility were arrested for using a supercomputer to mine Bitcoin.
• Russia’s decision to restrict access to the airspace over northern Syria may have been one of the key factors why Turkey’s offensive there has bogged down.
• Poll: More Russians think the U.S. is meddling in their country’s affairs than the other way around.
• Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made assurances that the U.S. is not pursuing sanctions against Russian government debt, but Russian oligarchs remain nervous.
• Sixteen Russian oligarchs would return to Russia if granted amnesty by the Kremlin, according to Russia’s business ombudsman Boris Titov.
• Russia's largest oil and gas pipemaker TMK has abandoned plans for a $615 million initial public offering of its U.S. subsidiary
• Henry Kissinger: “You must never forget that the unification of Germany is more important than the development of the European Union, that the fall of the Soviet Union is more important than the unification of Germany and that the rise of India and China is more important than the fall of the Soviet Union." 
• The former head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s international cooperation department believes Russia should initiate consultations with China on jointly monitoring nuclear forces in response to the new U.S. Nuclear Posture Review.
• “We’re simply mirroring the reckless Russian doctrine,” Andrew C. Weber, an assistant defense secretary during the Obama administration, said of the new U.S. Nuclear Posture Review.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• An international commission of nuclear experts has said it cannot determine if the Mayak Chemical Combine was the source of a radioactive leak detected by European and Russian officials in November 2017. They have also said the leak was not dangerous to human health. (Bellona, 02.05.18)
• Russian security officers have arrested several scientists working at a top-secret Russian nuclear warhead facility in a restricted area for allegedly mining Bitcoin using one of Russia's most powerful supercomputers. (BBC, 02.09.18)
• Workers at Chernobyl have begun moving much of the facility’s liquid nuclear waste into long term storage. (Bellona, 02.07.18)
•  “It reaffirms our commitment to arms control and nuclear non-proliferation, maintains the moratorium on nuclear testing and commits to improving efforts to prevent, detect and respond to nuclear terrorism,” U.S. President Donald Trump said of the Nuclear Posture Review. (Whitehouse.gov, 02.02.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia has begun deporting North Korean migrant workers to comply with U.N. sanctions despite "severe" repercussions for the economy. (The Moscow Times, 02.07.18)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• Russia has supplied electronic intelligence complexes and means for monitoring satellite communication to Iran. (Interfax, 02.08.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. President Donald Trump's 2019 budget, to be unveiled in mid-February, is expected to include $716 billion for national defense, a 7 percent increase over Trump's proposed 2018 budget and a 13 percent boost over 2017 funding levels. U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said that he plans to use the additional money to prepare the military for a potential conflict with a major power such as Russia or China. (The Washington Post, 02.08.18)
• A senior administration official said Donald Trump had been briefed on the new nuclear approach in Nuclear Posture Review, but was leaving the details to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster. Trump, the official said, was primarily concerned about staying ahead in any nuclear race with Russia, and to a lesser degree with China. (New York Times, 02.04.18)
• When Jim Mattis became defense secretary, he arrived at the Pentagon with reservations about the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Since then, Mattis has changed his tune. The nuclear weapons policy his team rolled out at the Pentagon last week offered full-throated support for the military's current and planned nuclear capabilities, including the new cruise missile and the ICBM fleet he once questioned. (The Washington Post, 02.06.18)
• John C. Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy, said the United States would not be increasing the number of warheads in its stockpile, which has contained other low-yield weapons for years. (The Washington Post, 02.02.18)
• Russia's Foreign Ministry has slammed U.S. Nuclear Posture Review issued on Feb. 2. The ministry's Feb. 3 statement said Moscow was "disappointed" with the document, which it characterized as both "confrontational" and "anti-Russian." (RFE/RL, 02.03.18)
• Russia has deployed its nuclear-capable Iskander missile system permanently in its exclave of Kaliningrad, according to claims by Lithuania’s president and defense minister, potentially bringing much of the EU and NATO within range. Other countries should not concern themselves with where Russia deploys weapons on its own territory, the Kremlin has said. (Financial Times, 02.05.18, The Moscow Times, 02.06.18)
• The United States and Germany have offered to host two proposed new NATO commands aimed at deterring Russia. As part of NATO’s response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, allies are considering a North Atlantic planning and strategy command to keep shipping lanes safe from enemy submarines, as well as a logistics command focusing on moving troops more quickly across Europe in any possible conflict. (Reuters, 02.08.18)
• The risk that an armed conflict will break out between Russia and European NATO members has increased over the past year thanks to the erosion of arms-control agreements and tensions over military exercises, according to the annual Munich Security Report. (Newsweek, 02.08.18)

Missile defense:

• China has successfully carried out another test of an anti-missile intercept system, the Chinese Defense Ministry said Feb. 5, describing it as defensive and not aimed at any country. The Defense Ministry said the "ground-based midcourse anti-missile intercept technology" had been tested on Feb. 4 within China's borders. (Reuters, 02.05.18)

Nuclear arms control:

• The United States and Russia have both declared that they complied with 2010’s New START arms-control treaty limiting the two countries' massive nuclear arsenals, as Moscow criticized U.S. President Donald Trump's new nuclear policy. Feb. 5 was the deadline for compliance. In a statement issued Feb. 5 Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the country had 799 deployed and non-deployed launchers. Of these, 527 are deployed with 1444 warheads assigned to them. The U.S. State Department said that it will release updated numbers as of Feb. 5, 2018 after the next Treaty-required data exchange. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said the U.S. and Russia will exchange data on their strategic nuclear arsenals within the next month. (Russia Matters, 02.05.18, RFE/RL, 02.05.18, Wall Street Journal, 02.05.18)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said that a plan to add a new cruise missile to the United States' nuclear arsenal aims to provide additional leverage to U.S. negotiators trying to persuade Russia to stop violating the INF treaty. (RFE/RL, 02.06.18)
• The pre-publication draft of the Nuclear Posture Review had language on categorizing the proposed submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) as an "INF-compliant response” to Russia's non-compliance with the INF Treaty. The final draft also changed a sentence about conditions under which the United States would "reconsider pursuit of SLCM" from including Russia returning to INF Treaty compliance to including Russia returning to "compliance with its arms control obligations." Also, the pre-publication version referred to "illegitimate annexation" of Crimea, while the final version refers to Russian occupation of Crimea. (Arms Control Today, 02.05.18)

Counter-terrorism:

• "I made a trip to Syria just recently for a meeting with our Syrian counterparts. According to their estimates, more than 1,500 Russian citizens who fought against government troops in Syria were recruited through the Internet," the chief of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Aleksandr Bastrykin, said. "No meeting places, no personal rendezvous are necessary. It is enough to visit a certain website, get an invitation and promises and agree on a meeting and off you go to join the Islamic State." (TASS, 02.05.18)
• About 7,000 Islamic State fighters have moved to Afghanistan having suffered a defeat in Syria, Collective Security Treaty Organization Deputy Secretary General Valery Semeriko said. (Interfax, 02.08.18)
• Islamic State is running online casinos to compensate for financial setbacks driven by battlefield losses, Russia’s top diplomat at the United Nations has said. (The Moscow Times, 02.09.18)
• A Moscow military court has handed down a seven-year sentence to Moscow businessman Shamil Nurmagomedov on charges of sponsoring Islamic State. (The Moscow Times, 02.07.18)

Conflict in Syria:

• U.S.-led coalition air and local ground forces in Syria have killed more than 100 pro-Syrian fighters after an "unprovoked attack" on the U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) headquarters, a U.S. official says. Gen. Hassan, commander of the Kurdish-led SDF in this region, says that just east of Deir el-Zour, tanks and artillery backing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began advancing toward the headquarters occupied by his forces and their advisers from U.S. Special Operations forces. "We told them there is some movement, and we don't like to … attack on this movement. They [the Russians] don't accept our offer and denied, said there's nothing happening," Hassan said. Hassan said the ground-attack force included some Russians, who he believed were mercenaries. (RFE/RL, 02.08.18, The Washington Post, 02.09.18)
  • U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis dismissed concerns on Feb. 8 that the United States was being dragged into a broader conflict in Syria, after a major clash with pro-Syrian government forces overnight that may have left 100 or more of them dead. Channels of communication between the U.S. and Russia remained open throughout the Feb. 8 nighttime clash, and the U.S. informed Russia before it opened fire on the pro-government force. (The Washington Post, 02.08.18, Reuters, 02.07.18)
  • The Russian Defense Ministry statement said the battle occurred when a reconnaissance party made up of Syrian militias ventured across the Euphrates River to hunt down an Islamic State position, only to be attacked unprovoked by U.S. warplanes. The militias had neglected to inform the Russian military of their plan in advance, the Russian statement added. (The Washington Post, 02.08.18)
  • Russia’s U.N. envoy described a deadly U.S.-led coalition strike on pro-Syrian government forces as “regrettable” and said he would raise it during a U.N. Security Council closed-door briefing on Syria’s humanitarian situation on Feb. 8. (Reuters, 02.08.18)
• A Russian Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jet was shot down by militants near Idlib in northern Syria on Feb. 3. (TASS, 02.05.18)
  • The pilot of the jet, Roman Filipov, avoided capture by blowing himself up with a grenade. His body was retrieved and flown to Russia. 30,000 people attended the funeral ceremony in southwestern Russia on Feb. 8. (RFE/RL, 02.08.18, The Moscow Times, 02.05.18)
  • In a rare departure from geopolitical tensions, the Russian Embassy in the United States has thanked Americans for their condolences over Filipov’s death. (The Moscow Times, 02.05.18)
  • Russia stepped up airstrikes in the Idlib province shortly after the downing, killing more than 30 Islamist fighters from Jabhat al-Nusra, the terror group linked to the plane's downing. (The Moscow Times, 02.05.18)
  • Russia has now ordered its warplanes in Syria to fly higher to avoid being shot down by shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles. (Reuters, 02.05.18)
  • Russian specialists want to examine the engine from the Sukhoi Su-25 jet shot down in Syria in order to establish the type of the man-portable air defense system used to down the plane and also how this system ended up in militants' hands, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Russia is talking to Turkey about gaining access to the crash site. (Interfax, 02.06.18, Reuters, 02.07.18)
• A Turkish offensive against Kurdish fighters has bogged down in the mountains and mud of northern Syria as troops encounter an adversary well accustomed to the terrain. The Turkish military lost its advantage in the skies over the border area for much of this week after Russian forces restricted access to the airspace. (The Washington Post, 02.09.18)
• United Nations war crimes experts say they are investigating numerous reports of alleged chemical attacks against civilians in rebel-held towns of Syria. The Feb. 6 announcement by the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on human rights in Syria said it had received "multiple reports—which it is now investigating—that bombs allegedly containing weaponized chlorine have been used" in the town of Saraqeb in the northwestern province of Idlib and the Douma in the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley on Feb. 5 accused Russia of blocking an investigation of possible chemical weapons use by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army in attacks in rebel-held Eastern Ghouta despite “obvious evidence from dozens of victims.” "It's completely clear to us the goal is to basically accuse the Syrian government of chemical weapons use where no perpetrators have been identified," Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, shot back in response. (RFE/RL, 02.06.18, RFE/RL, 02.06.18)
• The United Nations Security Council has rejected an appeal from U.N. aid officials for a month-long humanitarian cease-fire in Syria amid separate calls by the United States for Syria and Russia to end their attacks against rebel-held areas. (RFE/RL, 02.09.18)
• The leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran agreed on Feb. 7 to meet in Istanbul to discuss the conflict in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan agreed to strengthen coordination between the two countries’ military and security services in Syria in the fight against terrorism, the Kremlin said. The United States is working against the interests of Turkey, Iran and maybe Russia in northern Syria, where it is sending in military supplies to an area controlled by Kurdish-dominated forces, President Tayyip Erdogan said Feb. 6. (Reuters, 02.08.18, Reuters, 02.08.18, Reuters, 02.06.18)
• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will travel to the Middle East amid rising tensions over heightened violence in Syria. The State Department said on Feb. 8 that Tillerson will visit Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, Egypt and Kuwait during a Feb. 11-16 trip. (RFE/RL, 02.09.18)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Feb. 8 the ultimate goal of the United States in Syria is not to fight Islamic State but to seize economic assets. (Reuters, 02.08.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the Syrian peace process by phone on Feb. 9. (Reuters, 02.09.18)

 Cyber security:

• Russian programmer Pyotr Levashov, who had been arrested in Spain in a high-profile case that pitted the U.S. against Russia, on Feb. 9 pleaded not guilty to charges of running a vast network of computers for criminal purposes. Following’s Levashov’s extradition, the Russian foreign ministry demanded Feb. 8 that the U.S. "stop hunting down our citizens around the globe." (Wall Street Journal, 02.02.18, USA Today, 02.08.18)
• The U.S. Justice Department says it has charged 36 people for their alleged involvement in running a global cybercrime service responsible for more than $530 million of losses to consumers, businesses and financial institutions. They included Svyatoslav Bondarenko, a 34-year-old Ukrainian accused of having created the Internet-based cybercriminal enterprise known as the Infraud Organization in October 2010. (RFE/RL, 02.07.18)
• Recorded Future scoured 150 prominent message boards, marketplaces and illegal services to find that Litecoin is the second-most popular cryptocurrency on the dark web. The researchers also broke down their results by geography, noting that Russians preferred Litecoin because of its convenience, while English speakers favored Monero for its security features. (Bloomberg, 02.08.18)
• U.K. security chiefs took down more than 120,000 fake websites last year and blocked 54 million malicious online attacks as part of a “great British firewall” designed to stop cyber criminals targeting the public for money and secret data.  (Financial Times, 02.05.18)

Elections interference:

• Russians penetrated multiple states' voter registration rolls in the 2016 presidential election, Jeanette Manfra, head of cybersecurity at the Department of Homeland Security said Feb. 7. Of the 21 states targeted by Russians in the election, several were successfully penetrated. (NBC, 02.07.18)
• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is warning that Russia is already beginning to interfere in the 2018 midterm elections and the U.S. is ill-prepared to combat it. Tillerson has earlier urged Mexico to be on the lookout for Russian meddling in its elections, citing reports of Moscow’s interference in the electoral process of countries around the world. (RFE/RL, 02.03.18, USA Today, 02.07.18)
• Several of U.S. President Donald Trump’s lawyers have advised him not to sit down for an interview with a special counsel investigating possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign to influence the 2016 presidential election. (Reuters, 02.05.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 9 the White House would soon release a letter regarding a classified document crafted by Democrats to refute a Republican memo that alleged FBI bias against Trump in its Russia probe. Trump had five days to decide whether to release the Democrats’ memo after backing disclosure of the GOP document. (Reuters, 02.09.18, Bloomberg, 02.06.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump went on offense Feb. 5, making unsubstantiated allegations against Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Sen. Mark Warner, as well as former FBI Director James Comey, former CIA Director John Brennan and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper—all of whom have publicly criticized the Nunes memo. “Little Adam Schiff, who is desperate to run for higher office, is one of the biggest liars and leakers in Washington, right up there with Comey, Warner, Brennan and Clapper!,” Trump tweeted. (Bloomberg, 02.05.18)
• Several Republican lawmakers, including Rep. Trey Gowdy, a member of the intelligence committee and one of the authors of the four-page memo, disagreed on Feb. 4 with U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that a memo released last week by the House Intelligence Committee vindicated him in the investigation into Russian election meddling. (Reuters, 02.03.18)
• After the success of the viral #ReleaseTheMemo campaign, Russian-influenced Twitter accounts are test-running other hashtags designed to stoke anger, particularly among supporters of President Donald Trump, according to analysts at Hamilton 68, a website that tracks Russian-influenced Twitter accounts. (Politico, 02.06.18)
• A text message between then-Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI Peter Strzok and FBI attorney Lisa Page, who worked on both the Clinton email investigation and the Russia inquiry, exchanged in 2016 says that President Barak Obama "wants to know everything we are doing." (Wall Street Journal, 02.07.18)
• David Laufman, a U.S. Justice Department official who helped oversee the controversial probes of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server and Russian interference in the 2016 election stepped down this week. (The Washington Post, 02.07.18)
• Rep. Adam Schiff has said the secret court was “aware that there was a political motivation behind” the funding of the dossier produced by former British spy Christopher Steele. He has said the Democratic counter-memo is based on the same underlying classified material the Republicans used for their version but points out its errors and omissions. Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley said the FBI is blocking release of key portions of a memo he wrote calling for a criminal investigation of Steele. Steele should not be forced to give evidence in a U.S. libel case because it could put his sources at risk and harm U.K. national security, his lawyer said Feb. 5. (Bloomberg, 02.06.18, Reuters, 02.05.18, Bloomberg, 02.06.18)
• Steve Bannon, former chief strategist to U.S. President Donald Trump, is scheduled to speak with special counsel Robert Mueller's investigators next week as they probe possible obstruction of justice by the president. (AP, 02.06.18)
• Carter Page explained his 2013 claim that he was "informal advisor" to the Kremlin. The best explanation Page could muster Feb. 5 was essentially that it was a massive case of résumé inflation and an effort to beat back an overzealous editor. The New York Times is asking the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to unseal secret documents related to the wiretapping of Page. (The Washington Post, 02.06.18, New York Times, 02.05.18)
• Corey Lewandowski, U.S. President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, is refusing to appear for a second time before the House Intelligence Committee, according to the panel’s top Democrat, who wants him forced to appear under subpoena. (Bloomberg, 02.07.18)
• Lawyers for former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort's co-defendant, Rick Gates, are asking a federal judge to leave the case in a motion set to be heard in a sealed hearing in Washington on Feb. 7. (The Washington Post, 02.07.18)
• Top Republicans may end up shielding the president’s son and son-in-law from facing tough questions on-camera from Democrats eager to press them over their contacts with Russians during the 2016 campaign. Democrats on two Senate panels are demanding to hold public hearings with Donald Trump Jr. and Jared Kushner in a fight that could determine whether any of the congressional Russia probes come to a bipartisan outcome. (Bloomberg, 02.06.18)
• Sen. Mark Warner said he’s not finished pressing the technology companies whose networks were exploited by Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign and beyond. Warner has been the leading lawmaker pressing Facebook, Twitter and Google to search their archives for evidence of Russian interference and collusion, and to harden their networks against a continuing effort to interfere in elections in the U.S. (Bloomberg, 02.08.18)
• Seventy-eight percent of Russians polled said the United States meddles “a great deal” or “a fair amount” in Russian politics, compared to 69 percent of Americans who say the same about Russian interference in U.S. politics. The results come from comparative polling data collected by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs and its Russian partner, the Levada Center, in late 2017. Americans and Russians have negative views of each other at levels not seen since the Cold War: Only 31 percent of Americans say they hold a positive view of Russia, and 24 percent of Russians say the same of the United States. (The Washington Post, 02.07.18)
• Nearly three out of four Republicans believe the FBI and Justice Department are trying to undermine U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Feb. 5, a sharp turn for a party that has historically been a strong backer of law enforcement agencies. (Reuters, 02.05.18)
• Former U.S. President George W. Bush said on Feb. 8 that "there's pretty clear evidence that the Russians meddled" in the 2016 election, forcefully rebutting fellow Republican Donald Trump's denials. Speaking of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Bush called him "zero-sum. “He’s got a chip on his shoulder," Bush said of Putin. "The reason he does is because of the demise of the Soviet Union troubles him. Therefore, much of his moves [are] to regain Soviet hegemony." (AP, 02.08.18)
• Russian presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak says it appears that Moscow meddled in the U.S. presidential election in 2016, and called any such interference "unacceptable.” “It sounds [like] we really had something to do with it. If that's so, I want to say sorry," Sobchak told CNN's Christiane Amanpour. At the end of the interview, Sobchak said she had a "message for America"—that seeking to isolate Russia was a bad idea. Sobchak has this week brought her long-shot campaign for the presidency to Washington, saying that her political ambitions were genuine and long-term. (RFE/RL, 02.06.18, RFE/RL, 02.09.18)
• YouTube found no evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum. (Reuters, 02.08.18)

Energy exports:

• Gazprom increased its share of the European gas market from 33.1 to 34.7 percent in 2017, which is a record, according to the deputy chairman of Gazprom’s board, Alexander Medvedev. Europe will face a gas shortage and price spike as soon as the next decade if it doesn’t decide quickly to boost imports from Russia as gas purchases from the United States or Qatar fail to match demand, Kremlin energy giant Gazprom told Reuters. (Russia Matters, 02.06.18, Reuters, 02.09.18)
• Russian gas giant Gazprom said on Feb. 6 it expected debt repayments to peak in 2018 and investments to peak between 2018 and 2020 as it boosted spending on major pipeline projects. (Reuters, 02.06.18)
• U.S. oilfield services giant Schlumberger has filled a new bid for Russia’s oil services provider Eurasia Drilling. (Reuters, 02.08.18)
• Russia’s energy minister and senior executives from Russian oil majors discussed the quality of Russian oil on Feb. 6, a day after Reuters reported some European refiners are threatening to cut purchases due to worsening quality. (Reuters, 02.06.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

• No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the U.S. isn’t pursuing sanctions against Russian government debt after issuing a report that concluded such a move would risk widespread financial turmoil. “We’re targeting specific sanctions to bad individuals and companies as opposed to sanctions on debt,” Mnuchin said Feb. 6. (Bloomberg, 02.06.18)
• Russia's largest oil and gas pipemaker TMK has abandoned plans for a $615 million initial public offering of its U.S. subsidiary, blaming market volatility. (Financial Times, 02.09.18)
• Russia’s billionaire oligarchs are beginning to face additional scrutiny on at least some financial transactions following U.S. publication of a list of wealthy Russians identified as allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin. One wealthy Russian on the list speaking on condition of anonymity said he’s worried a deal with foreign partners expected to close in the next few months may collapse. Another said his reputation has been seriously damaged. Russian businessman Andrei Melnichenko, who controls Russia-focused fertilizer producer Eurochem, said on Feb. 9 that Russian companies could experience problems in the future in dealings with banks because of the U.S. government’s “oligarch list.” (Bloomberg, 02.06.18, Reuters, 02.09.18)
• Moscow routed millions of dollars to the U.S. expecting the funds would benefit ex-President Bill Clinton’s charitable initiative while his wife, Hillary Clinton, worked to reset relations with Russia, an FBI informant in an Obama administration-era uranium deal stated. In a written statement to three congressional committees, informant Douglas Campbell said Russian nuclear executives told him that Moscow hired American lobbying firm APCO Worldwide to influence Hillary Clinton, then secretary of state, among others in the Obama administration. (Newsweek, 02.08.18)
• This year, there were a significant number of Russian attendees at the National Prayer Breakfast on Feb. 8, 2018, in Washington. Konstantin Bendas of the Pentecostal Russian Union of Christians of Evangelical Faith said that a delegation of about 55 Russians attended the breakfast. (National Catholic Reporter, 02.08.18)
• The local government for the city of Washington, D.C., has renamed the street where Russia’s embassy is located, honoring the memory of slain Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in a move that Moscow has complained about. (RFE/RL, 02.07.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• The Bank of Russia cut its key lending rate to 7.5 percent from 7.75 percent on Feb. 9, citing annual inflation that has fallen below the bank's target level of 4 percent and decreasing expectations of price rises. Inflation stood at 2.2 percent in January, a record low for the post-Soviet period. (Wall Street Journal. 02.09.18)
• Sales of new cars in Russia posted their biggest monthly increase since 2011 in January as the country’s auto industry returns to growth after four bad years, the Association of European Businesses lobby group said Feb. 6. Car sales rose 31.3 percent year-on-year in January to 102,464 vehicles. (Reuters, 02.06.18)
• Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said on Feb. 7 that the Russian government is now more cautious over its privatization program, as there is no need to fill major budget gaps. (Reuters, 02.07.18)
• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets warned on Feb. 7 that economic development in Russia would face "serious difficulties" if the decline in wages was not reversed. "These days, it’s the population’s income that’s the most basic constraint on the development of demand and, consequently, on sustained economic growth," Interfax cited her as saying. (The Moscow Times, 02.07.18)
• Russia’s business ombudsman and presidential candidate Boris Titov compiled a list of 16 oligarchs willing to return to Russia in exchange for amnesty after meeting Russian businessmen in London over the weekend. The Kremlin is expanding its campaign to woo Russian businessmen and their money back home to include those fleeing prosecution. In a letter accompanied by 81 pages of appeals from businessmen, Titov asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to order a review of cases against people who’d been “forced” to flee abroad because of allegations “they consider illegal and unfounded.” (Bloomberg, 02.06.18, The Moscow Times, 02.07.18)
• A record-breaking snow storm will benefit wheat crops across central Russia, reinforcing the outlook for another big harvest. The country may reap between 73 million and 82 million metric tons of wheat next season, according to a pre-snowstorm estimate from the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. (Bloomberg, 02.07.18)
• Russia brought unit one of the Leningrad Phase II nuclear power plant to the minimum controllable power level, state nuclear corporation Rosatom has announced. (World Nuclear News, 02.06.18)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry has reportedly polled its soldiers on their political views and willingness to crack down on protesters as the country enters its election campaign season. The Defense Ministry’s political survey was conducted in the North Caucasus regions of Stavropol and Chechnya. (The Moscow Times , 02.06.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has been formally registered as a candidate in Russia's March 18 presidential election. Putin’s earnings have doubled since the last presidential elections, according to official data released by Russia’s election office. Putin earned 17.7 million rubles ($310,500 at the current exchange rate) in the four years ahead of the 2012 presidential vote. (RFE/RL, 02.06.18, The Moscow Times, 02.07.18)
• Oleg Deripaska, a magnate who owns one of Russia's largest industrial groups, said in a statement that an investigation by Alexey Navalny was part of a "planned campaign aiming to damage my reputation." Navalny has earlier accused Deripaska of bribing Sergei Prikhodko, a deputy prime minister and former aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, by entertaining him on his yacht with several women described as escorts. (The Washington Post, 02.09.18)
• Lawmakers in Russia's North Caucasus region of Dagestan have approved the appointment of Artyom Zdunov, an official from Russia's Tatarstan region, as Dagestan’s new prime minister. The move on Feb. 7 came two days after a roundup on fraud charges of several senior Daghestani officials, including acting Prime Minister Abdusamad Gamidov and acting Deputy Prime Ministers Shamil Isayev and Rayudin Yusufov. (RFE/RL, 02.07.18)
• Internet freedom in Russia has continued its downward spiral over the past year with over 115,000 recorded cases of censorship, according to an internet and media freedom report by the Agora international human rights group. (The Moscow Times, 02.05.18)
• The opening ceremony of the 23rd Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang on Feb. 9 was held just hours after an arbitration court dismissed an appeal by a group of 45 Russian athletes against a ban on participation in the games. The head of the International Olympic Committee has described an earlier ruling by the world's top sports court that lifts Olympic doping bans for 28 Russian athletes as "extremely disappointing and surprising." (RFE/RL, 02.09.18, RFE/RL, 02.04.18)
• Moscow has the second worst traffic jams in the world after Los Angeles. (The Moscow Times, 02.07.18)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s air force will receive more than 100 advanced and upgraded planes and helicopters in 2018. These include 14 Sukhoi Su-30SM (NATO reporting name: Flanker-H) fighter jets and 10 Yakovlev Yak-130 (Mitten) combat trainers. The Russian Defense Ministry is also planning to buy an additional 114 combat Ka-52 helicopters in the framework of the new arms program for 2018-2027. (TASS, 02.09.18)
• Russia will not increase its military group on the Kuril Islands following the government's decision to allow the defense ministry to use the airfield on Iturup. (Interfax, 02.0.218)
• Russia's plans to build a rocket comparable to SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket, which launched successfully Feb. 6, aren't even complete yet, and certainly not fully funded, though Igor Komarov, head of Russian space agency Roskosmos has promised a first launch in 2028. (Bloomberg, 02.07.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Former governor of Sakhalin Alexander Khoroshavin has been sentenced to 13 years in prison for bribe-taking amid an increasing nationwide crackdown on corruption. (The Moscow Times, 02.09.18)
• On Feb. 9, a Moscow court rescinded a previous ruling to deport Uzbek journalist Ali Feruz from Russia, opening the way for him to leave for a third country. (RFE/RL, 02.09.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led bloc and the Social Democratic Party agree that European Union sanctions targeting the Kremlin should remain linked to the three-year-old Minsk accord aimed at resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.06.18)
• With the U.K. set to become the first EU member to depart, Serbia and Montenegro can join by 2025, the European Commission said Feb. 6 after approving an Enlargement Strategy in the Western Balkans. (Bloomberg, 02.06.18)
• Russian oligarchs suspected of corruption will be forced to explain their wealth in Britain, The Times reported on Feb. 3. (RFE/RL, 02.03.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas plan to discuss a possible new mediation mechanism to replace the Middle East Quartet. (Reuters, 02.07.18)
• Documents on the delivery of S-400 air defense missile systems to Saudi Arabia have been signed. Saudi Arabia’s new sovereign wealth fund has earmarked $10 billion for investment in Russia, with $1 billion already disbursed. (Interfax, 02.08.18, Financial Times, 02.06.18)       
• Sudanese President Umar al-Bashir said military programs with Russia will modernize the African nation’s army and protect it from any external threat. (Bloomberg, 02.08.18)

China:

• The next summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will be held in China’s port city of Qingdao on June 9. (TASS, 02.09.18)
• Leonid Ivashov, former head of the Russian Defense Ministry's international cooperation department, told Interfax that, in light of the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, Russia should initiate consultations with China on jointly monitoring nuclear forces and studying "ways of responding." (RFE/RL, 02.03.18)
• China has for the first time revealed that its new fleet of advanced, Russia-built Su-35 jets has flown over the South China Sea, where the U.S. has contested Beijing's vast territorial claims and construction of artificial, militarized islands. (Newsweek, 02.08.18)

Ukraine:

• Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France plan to meet on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference next week to discuss the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Top officials from the four countries will participate in the high-level meeting, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. (Bloomberg, 02.08.18)
• The U.S. has helped Ukraine identify Russian operatives involved in attacks inside Ukraine. Ukrainians recently provided the CIA with new information on efforts by Iranian diplomats to purchase Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles. "Our contacts with American intelligence are at a height right now,” director of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Hrystak said. (Bloomberg, 02.07.19)
• U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle has said that a bill on strengthening cooperation between Ukraine and the United States in the field of cybersecurity has been included in the agenda of the U.S. House of Representatives. (Interfax, 02.06.18)
• Brussels did not confirm the date of the NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting at the level of defense ministers. The ministerial meeting was to be held Feb. 14 or Feb. 15, but Hungary blocked it. (Unian, 02.09.18)
• Several thousand people have marched through the center of Kiev to call for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's resignation. Police said the Feb. 4 demonstration organized by opposition politician Mikheil Saakashvili's Movement of New Forces party attracted 2,500 people, but local reports said up to 5,000 people participated. A Kiev court has rejected Saakashvili's appeal for protection against possible extradition, a ruling his lawyer says increases the chances he will be deported or handed over to the Georgian authorities. However, Ukraine's top prosecutor has said he will not seek to renew a nightly curfew Saakashvili. (RFE/RL, 02.04.18, RFE/RL, 02.07.18, RFE/RL, 02.05.18)
• The Ukrainian Prosecutor’s Office has opened criminal proceedings and launched a probe into a visit of German parliamentarians to Crimea. (TASS, 02.05.18)
• Ukraine is one of the least energy-efficient countries in Europe—analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration found Ukraine’s economy to be two or three times as energy intensive as many neighboring countries, including Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. (Carnegie Moscow Center, February 2018)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Moldova and Romania's defense ministers said on Feb. 5 that they will form a joint military battalion for deployment in emergency situations. (Balkan Insight, 02.06.18)
• Long-ruling Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has brought the date of Azerbaijan's presidential election forward by more than six months to April 11, a move that swiftly drew sharp criticism from his beleaguered opponents. (RFE/RL, 02.05.18)
• The lower chamber of Tajikistan's parliament has approved amendments to the laws on presidential and parliamentary elections, lowering the eligibility age from 35 to 30 for the presidency and legislative posts in parliament's upper chamber. (RFE/RL, 02.07.18)
• Henry Ensher, deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. State Department's Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, was in Kyrgyzstan this week after visiting neighboring Tajikistan. (RFE/RL, 02.05.18)
• "Georgia is a valued, precious partner for the European Union, and we believe [that] it is our shared interest to continue to invest in our friendship as we've done with good results so far," EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said on Feb. 5 alongside Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili in Brussels. (RFE/RL, 02.05.18)

IV. Quoteworthy:

• "You must never forget that the unification of Germany is more important than the development of the European Union, that the fall of the Soviet Union is more important than the unification of Germany and that the rise of India and China is more important than the fall of the Soviet Union,” Henry Kissinger said. (Wall Street Journal, 02.05.18) 
• “We’re simply mirroring the reckless Russian doctrine,” Andrew C. Weber, an assistant defense secretary during the Obama administration, said of the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review’s plan to develop a low-yield nuclear warhead for some of the nation’s submarine ballistic missiles. “We can already deter any strike. We have plenty of low-yield weapons. The new plan is a fiction created to justify the making of new nuclear arms. They’ll just increase the potential for their use and for miscalculation. The administration’s logic is Kafkaesque.” (New York Times, 02.04.18)