This Week’s Highlights

• “Russia sent us a very, very large planeload of things. Medical equipment, which was very nice,” U.S. President Donald Trump said on the same day that he and Vladimir Putin discussed the coronavirus and plunging oil prices by phone. The U.S. said it purchased the planeload of medical supplies from Russia, but Russia said that the U.S. had paid for half of the plane's cargo, while Russia donated the other half, according to The Moscow Times. The U.S. may have violated its own sanctions by purchasing ventilators and other protective gear from Russia to fight the coronavirus pandemic: Footage of the cargo during unloading in New York showed boxes of ventilators made by a company that is part of the sanctioned conglomerate Rostec, The Moscow Times reports.
• The Kremlin on April 2 denied that Putin spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after Trump claimed Russia and Saudi Arabia are discussing holding talks about the sharp fall in oil prices and that he would consider joining them, The Moscow Times reports. According to Reuters, Trump and Putin did agree, however, during a phone call on March 30 to have their top energy officials discuss slumping global oil markets, the Kremlin said.
• It may take the Russian side several months to complete the New START extension if the U.S. agrees that the two countries should extend the treaty, according to Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov, Arms Control Today reports. The U.S. State Department on April 1 released new figures on compliance with the New START Treaty that shows a reduction in the number of Russian launchers and warheads. The reduction was probably caused by the decommissioning of single-warhead Topol (SS-25 Sickle) ICBMs, according to Pavel Podvig.
• Russia has upgraded facilities for the production of the super-heavy thermonuclear-armed RS-28 Sarmat, Russia’s latest silo-based ICBM, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. A regiment of the Strategic Rocket Force’s 62nd Missile Division in southwestern Siberia, will reportedly be the first unit to receive the new MIRVed ICBM in 2021, according to The Diplomat.
• Russia confirmed 601 new coronavirus infections on April 3, bringing the country’s official number of cases up to 4,149 with 34 deaths, The Moscow Times reports. On April 1, Rosatom, which operates 38 nuclear reactors in Russia, announced four cases among its workers, according to Bellona. Audit Chamber chief Alexei Kudrin estimates Russia’s economy will fall by between 3 and 5 percent this year, even if it takes a moderate hit from the coronavirus, The Moscow Times reports, while unemployment rates may rise to 5.9 percent by the end of the year, from 4.6 percent in February, according to a survey of economists by Interfax.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered a delay to the regular spring draft that was to start on April 1, telling the draft commission to send new conscripts to units no earlier than May 20, RFE/RL reports. Russian authorities are also considering whether to reschedule the annual Victory Day military parade from May 9 to either Sept. 2 or November, according to Defence Blog.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia’s operator of nuclear power plants, Rosenergoatom, announced on April 3 that workers at these plans will be isolated from the general public and required to live in onsite clinics at their respective stations as nuclear authorities tighten their response to the coronavirus after a number of industry infections. On April 1, Rosatom announced on its website that “as of today, we have four confirmed cases of the illness” COVID-19. Rosatom reported its first staff case on March 19 after an employee of one of its subsidiary companies in St. Petersburg tested positive. On March 28, technicians at the Beloyarsk nuclear power plant were put into isolation at a local clinic after the wife of one of the plant’s employees was hospitalized with symptoms of COVID-19. Rosatom’s 250,000 employees operate 38 nuclear reactors throughout Russia. (Bellona, 04.01.20, Bellona, 04.03.20)
• Fallout from the global coronavirus pandemic is resulting in more challenges as the only underground repository for nuclear waste in the U.S. finished ramping down operations April 1 to keep workers safe. (AP, 04.03.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Inspectors from the IAEA are monitoring Iranian nuclear activity to the fullest extent, despite the coronavirus epidemic, and have no claims against Tehran, Russian permanent representative to the IAEA Mikhail Ulyanov said. (Interfax, 03.31.20)
• Russia hails the beginning of the supply of medicine to Iran via the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges and calls for applying this mechanism to goods that fall under U.S. sanctions, Russian Foreign Ministry said. (Interfax, 04.02.20)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Moscow donated some 1,500 coronavirus tests kits to Pyongyang. (The Moscow Times, 04.01.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• Russia has upgraded facilities for the production of the super-heavy thermonuclear-armed RS-28 Sarmat, Russia’s latest silo-based ICBM, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. A regiment of the Strategic Rocket Force’s 62nd Missile Division will reportedly be the first unit to receive the new MIRVed ICBM in 2021. (Diplomat, 03.31.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the military alliance must not allow the coronavirus pandemic to become a security threat, warning that adversaries like Russia and terrorist groups could try to exploit the situation and conduct hostile activities. On an April 2 teleconference, NATO foreign ministers were unanimous that NATO should continue to fulfill its basic mission—to ensure that its collective defense and deterrence posture is credible. (RFE/RL, 04.01.20, Baltic Times, 04.03.20)
• In a March 30 call with Stoltenberg, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed the need to counter attempts by China and Russia to “spread disinformation and propaganda related to the virus.” (New York Times, 04.02.20)
• While Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said Russian military aircraft are flying in the Baltic airspace with their on-board transponders switched on, the Estonian defense forces disagreed with this claim. Head of the Estonian Air Force Col. Rauno Sirk said: "NATO jets were scrambled four times in one week to identify Russian planes as their transponders had not been switched on." (News.err.ee, 03.28.20)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Arms control:

• The U.S. State Department on April 1 released new figures on compliance with the New START Treaty as reported by the U.S. and Russia. The numbers show that in March 2020, Russia declared 1326 deployed warheads (1426 in the previous update in September 2019), 485 deployed delivery systems (513 in September) and 754 total delivery systems (757 in September). The U.S. in March 2020 declared 1373 deployed warheads (1376 in September), 655 deployed delivery systems (668 in September) and 800 total delivery systems (also 800 in September). The reduction in Russian numbers was probably caused by the decommissioning of single-warhead Topol (SS-25 Sickle) ICBMs, according to Pavel Podvig. (Russia Matters, 04.02.20)
• Russia and the U.S. have suspended bilateral inspection missions within the framework of New START, executive director of the Arms Control Association Daryl Kimball said. (Tasimnews/TASS, 03.29.20)
• It may take the Russian side several months to complete the New START extension if the U.S. agrees that the two countries should extend this treaty, according to Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov. “Russia stands ready to reach an agreement on New START’s extension even this very day,” he said. (Arms Control Today, April 2020)
• “We do not understand why some of our U.S. colleagues talk exclusively about China” in nuclear arms control, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said. “Let’s also involve NATO members possessing nuclear weapons, Great Britain and France,” he said. (Arms Control Today, April 2020)
• The COVID-19 pandemic has forced a postponement, possibly until early 2021, of the 10th review conference of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, originally scheduled to be held at U.N. headquarters in New York from April 27 until May 22. (Arms Control Today, April 2020)
• The U.S. government this week formally added three years to the current Bechtel contract to destroy 2,600 tons of surplus chemical weapons stored at the U.S. Army Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado, adding provisions to accelerate destruction to meet commitments to Congress and an international treaty by the end of 2023. (PR Newswire, 04.03.20)

Counter-terrorism:

• Two natives of Central Asian countries suspected of planning to join terrorists in Syria have been detained in Crimea, the regional branch Russia’s FSB said. (TASS, 04.02.20)

Conflict in Syria:

• Russian and Turkish forces have carried out another joint patrol in the north of Syria, the Russian Center for Reconciliation of Opposing Sides in Syria said. (Interfax, 04.03.20)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a telephone conversation to discuss the coronavirus pandemic, Syria, including the implementation of the Russian-Turkish agreements, and Lybia. (Interfax, 04.01.20)

Cyber security:

• The FBI has arrested Maxim Boyko, a Russian rapper in the U.S., on cryptocurrency laundering charges after finding photographs of him flashing large sums of money on social media, authorities have said. (The Moscow Times, 04.03.20)
• China has suggested a radical change to the way the internet works to the U.N., in a proposal that claims to enable cutting-edge technologies such as holograms and self-driving cars, but which critics say will also bake authoritarianism into the architecture underpinning the web. The proposal has gained the support of Russia, and potentially Saudi Arabia, according to Western representatives at the ITU. (Financial Times, 03.27.20)

Elections interference:

• Ahead of November’s election, American intelligence officials and others are on high alert for mischief from Russia’s Internet Research Agency. Russian operators are trying to avoid detection by copying and pasting chunks of texts from other sources directly into their posts.  The group also uses less text and few hashtags. Instead of writing its own text, the troll farm now also posts screenshots of tweets created by real Americans. (New York Times, 03.29.20)
• Investigators examining the beginnings of the 2016 probe of possible links between the Trump campaign and Russian election interference are pushing to complete their inquiry despite the coronavirus pandemic. The investigators, led by Conn. U.S. attorney John Durham, were refused by British authorities earlier this year when they requested an interview—outside formal, more time-consuming channels—with former British spy Christopher Steele. (Wall Street Journal, 04.03.20)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The Kremlin on April 2 denied that Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after U.S. President Donald Trump claimed they had, and oil prices rocketed. "No, there was no conversation," Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, adding that "so far" there were no plans for such talks. Trump said Russia and Saudi Arabia are discussing holding talks about the sharp fall in oil prices and that he would consider joining them. "The two countries are discussing it, and I am joining at the appropriate time, if need be," Trump said on March 31. One OPEC official said the tweet from Trump amounted to “Trump talking before his brain engages.” (Financial Times, 04.02.20, RFE/RL, 03.31.20, AFP, 04.02.20)
• Saudi Arabia and Russia are pressing the U.S. to coordinate oil output cuts in an attempt to stabilize prices, OPEC officials said, as the demand for crude plummets amid the coronavirus pandemic. (Wall Street Journal, 04.03.20)
• Trump and Putin agreed during a phone call on March 30 to have their top energy officials discuss slumping global oil markets, the Kremlin said, as Trump called Russia’s price war with Saudi Arabia “crazy.” “Opinions on the current state of global oil markets were exchanged. It was agreed there would be Russo-American consultations about this through the ministers of energy,” the Kremlin said. (Reuters, 03.30.20)
• A new OPEC+ deal to balance oil markets might be possible if other countries join in, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund said, adding that countries should also cooperate to cushion the economic fallout from coronavirus. (AFP, 03.28.20)
• Saudi Arabia is willing to consider massive oil-supply curbs as long as other nations join the effort, according to Saudi officials. "The Kingdom calls for an urgent meeting of OPEC + and a group of other countries, with the aim of seeking a fair agreement that will restore the desired balance to the oil markets," the official Saudi Press Agency said April 2. (Wall Street Journal, 04.02.20)
• American shale producers have launched an aggressive lobbying campaign in support of new sanctions against Saudi Arabia and Russia, urging the White House to compel the oil producing nations to cut output in order to prop up crude prices. The industry has tapped Rick Perry, Trump’s recently-departed energy secretary, to help in the push. (Financial Times, 04.04.20)
• Russia’s biggest oil companies are well positioned to withstand low prices for the next couple of years, given certain advantages they have over global rivals, and may still be able to turn a profit even if prices fall to $15 a barrel. (Financial Times, 03.29.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• “Russia sent us a very, very large planeload of things. Medical equipment, which was very nice,” Trump said at a press conference without specifying the types of equipment. His announcement of foreign aid came on the same day that he and Putin discussed plunging oil prices and the coronavirus by phone. The White House said Trump and Putin had "agreed to work closely together through the G20" against the virus. (The Moscow Times, 03.30.20)
  • The U.S. said it purchased the medical supplies from Russia, the State Department said April 1, contradicting the Kremlin's initial description of the shipment as humanitarian aid. On April 2, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the U.S. had paid for half of the plane's cargo, while Russia donated the other half. (The Moscow Times, 04.02.20)
  • The U.S. may have violated its own sanctions by purchasing ventilators and other protective gear from Russia to fight the coronavirus pandemic. Footage of the cargo during unloading in New York showed boxes of ventilators made by a subsidiary of Russia’s KRET tech firm, itself a subsidiary of sanctioned conglomerate Rostec. Western sanctions block KRET from U.S. markets unless OFAC issues a waiver. (The Moscow Times, 04.03.20)
• Prior to the call with Putin, Trump said March 30 he would discuss oil with the Russian leader, as well as trade, potentially Venezuela and the coronavirus pandemic. "We talk about trade and we talk about trade a lot," Trump said. "We should get along with all countries if possible," he continued. “They love to be able to do trade with our country. It’s been very much hindered by the nonsense that’s been going on,” he said. Trump said Putin has been asking over the last two years for sanctions to be lifted, a claim Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied. (Reuters, 03.30.20, The Hill, 03.30.20)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Pompeo discussed the global situation around the coronavirus pandemic, the situation in strategic stability and a Syrian crisis settlement, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (Interfax, 03.30.20)
• “We proceed from an understanding that the leaders will discuss the crisis situation in global stability and security, including the erosion of the U.N.-set foundations of the world order, regional conflicts, fight against international terrorism and transnational organized crime, challenges of migration and destabilizing technologies,” Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said of the proposed P5 summit. (Arms Control Today, April 2020)
• Russia said March 27 that U.S. "narco-terrorism" charges against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro were absurd, adding that sanctions on Caracas could become "a tool of genocide" amid the coronavirus outbreak. (Reuters, 03.27.20)
  • Russia's largest oil producer, Rosneft, said March 28 it had terminated operations in Venezuela and disposed of its assets relating to its operations there. The company said it was selling its Venezuelan businesses to a company owned by the Russian government. (Reuters, 03.28.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 601 new coronavirus infections on April 3, bringing the country’s official number of cases up to 4,149. Thirty-four people have been killed by the virus. Putin announced on April 2 the extension of Russia's nationwide “non-working week” until April 30. (The Moscow Times, 04.03.20, The Moscow Times, 04.02.20)
• Russian lawmakers on March 31 swiftly passed legislation imposing severe punishment—including up to five years in prison—for people convicted of spreading false information about the coronavirus. (AFP, 03.31.20)
• Authorities are building a dedicated coronavirus hospital using prefabricated materials on the outskirts of Moscow, and Russia’s armed forces are building another 16 infectious disease centers across the country. An additional 13,000 beds for COVID-19 patients will be created nationwide, the government has said. But medical associations have called on the government to speed up the distribution of protective equipment and doctors across the country send cries for help on social media. (Financial Times, 03.30.20)
• Russia will suspend all flights bringing Russians home from abroad from the night of April 3, Interfax cited sources as saying, without giving a reason. The Russian Foreign Ministry on April 1 said 25,000 people abroad had appealed for help getting home, with many still stranded. (Reuters, 04.03.20)
• Putin has decided to handle his duties remotely, the Kremlin said April 1, after the head of the country's main coronavirus hospital tested positive following a meeting with the president. Denis Protsenko, who met with Putin last week as the Russian leader visited the Kommunarka hospital in Moscow, said March 31 he had been infected with the coronavirus but was feeling well. (AFP, 04.01.20)
• Audit Chamber chief Alexei Kudrin told the president that Russia’s economy would fall by between 3 and 5 percent this year, even if it takes a moderate hit from the coronavirus. (The Moscow Times, 04.02.20)
• Russia has earmarked almost $18 billion to battle the coronavirus pandemic, the prime minister said April 1. The government is also rewriting its budget to prepare for oil prices at $20 a barrel this year. (AFP 04.01.20, Bloomberg, 04.02.20)
• The IHS Markit Russia Services Purchasing Index (PMI) index crashed to a new all-time low of 37.1 in March as the double whammy of an oil price collapse and the stop-shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic hit the services industry. (bne IntelliNews, 04.03.20)
• S&P Global Ratings maintained Russia's credit rating at BBB- with a stable outlook on April 2, even as it downgraded a raft of emerging markets due to a plunge in commodity prices. (Bloomberg, 03.31.30)
• Russia’s unemployment is expected to rise to 5.9 percent by the end of the year, from 4.6 percent in February, according to a survey of economists by the Interfax news agency. (Wall Street Journal, 04.03.20)
• Russia's election authorities have postponed all upcoming local and nationwide votes in the country until after June 21. (RFE/RL, 04.03.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered a delay to the regular spring armed-forces draft that was to start on April 1, telling the draft commission to send new conscripts to military units no earlier than May 20. (RFE/RL, 04.01.20)
• Russian authorities are considering the option of postponing the Victory Day parade to the fall and timed the event to the end of World War II celebrated all over the world on Sept. 2. The transfer of the celebration to the beginning of November is also considered. (Defence Blog, 04.02.20)
• The Russian Navy’s guard ship Yaroslav Mudry and sea tanker Yelnya have called at the port of Cape Town in South Africa. (TASS, 04.02.20)
• Project 22160 corvettes learned to provide guidance to Vityaz S-350 and Triumf S-400 air defense launchers against adversary aircraft and helicopters. The launchers remain unnoticed, as they do not switch on radars up to the strike. (TASS, 03.25.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Rights campaigners are urging the Russian government to consider releasing some pre-trial detainees and prisoners held in the country's packed jails, warning of the "devastating consequences" of the coronavirus pandemic. More than half a million people are held in Russia's notoriously crowded prisons in what is the European continent's largest prison population. (AFP, 03.31.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia pledged to send 11 flights with 87 army medics to Serbia after Putin spoke with Serbian President Alexander Vucic by phone April 2. (The Moscow Times, 04.03.20)
• The British government has appointed Ken McCallum, a career spy who led the response to the Salisbury poison attack against former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal, as the new director-general of MI5. (Financial Times, 03.30.20)
• Italy was engaged in a war of words with Russia on April 3 over allegations Moscow hid spies among doctors it had sent to the country's coronavirus epicenter near Milan. (AFP, 04.30.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• China and Russia have both seized on the novel coronavirus to wage disinformation campaigns that seek to sow doubts about the United States’ handling of the crisis and deflect attention from their own struggles with the pandemic, according to American intelligence officials and diplomats. (New York Times, 03.28.20)
• Russia and China continue to deploy a campaign of disinformation around the coronavirus outbreak that could have "harmful consequences" for public health around the world, according to a report published by the EU's foreign-policy arm. (RFE/RL, 04.01.20)

Ukraine:

• Educational institutions, restaurants, cafes, entertainment and fitness centers remain closed, the Ukrainian government said. Regional authorities must establish border points with mandatory inspections of passing vehicles, and all arrivals must spend a mandatory 14 days in quarantine. Earlier the government said it had sharply revised Ukraine's economic outlook, expecting the economy to shrink by 4.8 percent in 2020 due to the restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of the virus. (New York Times, 04.03.20) 
• Ukraine has taken to Twitter to ask Elon Musk to send it ventilators after the billionaire chief executive of Tesla offered to ship them across the world during the coronavirus pandemic. (Reuters, 04.02.20)
• Much of Ukraine's aid, including a pending $5.5 billion package from the IMF, is tied to meeting anti-corruption benchmarks. Those have been slipping, putting assistance in doubt at a precarious time. Oleksiy Honcharuk, the former prime minister, said: ''Our dismissal I connect, most of all, with our systematic fight against corruption.” (New York Times, 03.28.20)
• Ukraine's parliament has approved the firing of Finance Minister Ihor Umanskiy and Health Minister Illya Yemets just weeks into their mandates, but failed to approve new candidates to the posts. A reason for their firing was not given. (RFE/RL, 03.30.20)
• Ukraine’s Security Service says it has breached an espionage communication channel between a high-ranking Ukrainian naval officer and staff from Russia's FSB in the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. (RFE/RL, 04.01.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva told a news conference on March 27 that emerging-market countries will need at least $2.5 trillion in financial resources to get through the crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic. (RFE/RL, 03.28.20)
• As part of its assistance to the Eastern Partnership countries, the European Commission is redirecting 140 million euros to mitigate the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Interfax, 03.30.20)
• Russia sent approximately 100,000 coronavirus test kits to ex-Soviet states including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. (The Moscow Times, 04.01.20)
• Uzbekistan has suspended operations of all airports in Central Asia’s most-populous nation of 32 million to try to help slow the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. (RFE/RL, 03.30.20)
• The trial of former Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev and 13 co-defendants over deadly clashes with security forces last year at Atambaev's compound in a Bishkek suburb has been postponed because of the state of emergency announced in the country due to the coronavirus outbreak. (RFE/RL, 03.30.20)
• A Belarusian news-website editor who published an article on the coronavirus was arrested on March 25 and charged with “receiving a bribe,” which carries a possible 10-year prison sentence. (RFE/RL, 04.01.20)
• Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov has dismissed Deputy Prime Minister Altynai Omurbekova and Health Minister Kosmosbek Cholponbaev for their "failure" to adequately respond to the coronavirus outbreak. (RFE/RL, 04.01.20)
• Estonia’s economy will contract 8 percent in 2020 because of the coronavirus outbreak, the Baltic state’s finance ministry said. (bne IntelliNews, 04.02.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• "I’m not saying they're babies. I’m not saying they’re perfect ... but you know they also fought World War II," Donald Trump said of Russia. "They lost 50 million people. They were our partner in World War II. Germany was the enemy, and Germany is like this wonderful thing. Well, Germany takes advantage of us on trade for years, they pay far too little in NATO ... and nobody talks about that. I’m not saying anything wrong, I’m just saying how come we talk to some people, we don't talk to others," he added. (The Hill, 03.30.20)