This Week’s Highlights

• The Trump administration is debating whether it will resume nuclear testing “within months,” according to Breaking Defense. The administration has earlier discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992. The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies May 15, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests, The Washington Post reports.
• The U.S. National Security Agency on May 28 warned government partners and private companies about a Russian hacking operation that it says uses a special intrusion technique to target operating systems often used to manage computer infrastructure, RFE/RL reports.
• The U.S. military accused Russia of deploying fighter jets from Syria to Libya in support of Russian mercenaries operating there, according to CNN, but a Russian lawmaker said U.S. claims that Russia has deployed 14 fighter jets to Libya is unsubstantiated, Interfax reports. Meanwhile, forces backing Libya's unity government said May 25 that hundreds of Russian mercenaries fighting for their rival, military commander Khalifa Haftar, had been evacuated from combat zones south of Tripoli, AFP reports.
• Russia's weapons designers say a test launch of the Poseidon nuclear powered underwater drone will take place this fall, according to The Barents Observer. Meanwhile, Russia has begun construction of the nation's first strategic stealth bomber, according to The National Interest, and launched the fourth spacecraft of the new early-warning system known as EKS or Kupol, the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces blog reports. Additionally, the Knyaz Vladimir, the fourth Borey-class submarine and the first ship of the Project 955A class, was handed over to the navy.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a directive tasking the Defense Ministry and  the Foreign Ministry with holding negotiations with Syria on transferring more of Syria’s real estate and water territory to the Russian military's possession, according to Interfax.
• Russia became the top crude oil supplier to China last month, overtaking Saudi Arabia with an average of 1.75 million barrels per day versus 1.26 million for Saudi Arabia, according to Oil Price and Reuters.
• When asked by the Levada Center in May 2020 to name five to six Russian politicians they trust the most, only 25 percent mentioned Putin compared to 59 percent in November 2017, according to Levada.
• The IAEA has provided Belarus with a mobile laboratory for assessing radiological threats associated with forest fires in the Polessie State Radio-Ecological Reserve, adjacent to the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, World Nuclear News reports. Meanwhile, about 100 people at the construction site of a nuclear power plant in Belarus have become infected with the coronavirus, Russia’s nuclear corporation has said, according to Bellona.

 

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The IAEA has provided Belarus with a mobile laboratory for assessing radiological threats associated with forest fires in the Polessie State Radio-Ecological Reserve, adjacent to the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. (World Nuclear News, 05.28.20)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• U.S. authorities unsealed a sweeping indictment charging more than 30 people with helping North Korea illegally transfer $2.5 billion since 2013, as punishing U.S. sanctions have cut off its access to the global financial system. Prosecutors said officials and agents of North Korea's primary foreign exchange bank, the Foreign Trade Bank, opened and operated covert branches of the bank in Thailand, Austria, Russia, China and elsewhere. (Wall Street Journal, 05.28.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia said on May 28 the U.S. was acting in a dangerous and unpredictable way, after Washington withdrew from the Open Skies treaty and moved to ramp up pressure on Iran. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova made the comments after Washington announced it would end sanctions waivers for nations that remain in a nuclear accord signed with Iran. (AFP, 05.29.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992. The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies May 15, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests. The administration is now debating whether it will resume nuclear testing “within months.” (The Washington Post, 05.22.20, Breaking Defense, 05.28.20)
• Two Russian Su-35 fighter jets flew in an unsafe and unprofessional manner while intercepting a U.S. Navy P-8A maritime patrol aircraft over international waters in the Eastern Mediterranean on May 26, the U.S. Navy has said. The incident lasted around 65 minutes, during which the Russian pilots simultaneously flew on each wing of the P-8A and restricted the aircraft's ability to maneuver. (RFE/RL, 05.27.20)
• Russian Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets were scrambled to intercept U.S. Air Force B-1B strategic bombers over the neutral waters of the Black Sea, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported May 29. (TASS, 05.29.20)
• Tech billionaire Elon Musk’s plan to bomb Mars to make it suitable it for human life is a front to deploy nuclear weapons in space, Russia’s space chief Dmitry Rogozin said. (The Moscow Times, 05.29.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a directive tasking the Russian Defense and Foreign Ministries with holding negotiations with Syria on transferring more real estate and water territory to the Russian military's possession under an agreement on the stationing of a Russian air group in Syria. (Interfax, 05.29.20)
• Traffic returned to a major highway in northeastern Syria for the first time in seven months on May 25, following Russian mediation to reopen parts of the road captured last year by Turkish-backed opposition fighters. Syrian Kurdish media and a Syrian Kurdish official said several vehicles accompanied by Russian troops began driving in the morning between the northern towns of Ein Issa and Tal Tamr. (Haaretz, 05.26.20)
• A court in St. Petersburg is soon to deliver a verdict in the case of Maj. Nikolai Zaikin, who has allegedly accepted 350,000 rubles from fellow military servicemen for assistance in being dispatched to the Russian group in in Syria for well-paid tours of duty, according to Kommersant. (Russia Matters, 05.25.20)
• Putin appointed Moscow’s ambassador in Damascus, Alexander Efimov, as his third special envoy for developing relations with Syria on May 25. (Al-Monitor, 05.28.20)

Cyber security:

• The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) on May 28 warned government partners and private companies about a Russian hacking operation that it says uses a special intrusion technique to target operating systems often used to manage computer infrastructure. The NSA said the hacking activity was tied to “Russian military cyberactors, publicly known as Sandworm Team" and are part of Russia’s GRU’s Main Center for Special Technologies. The NSA said the hackers have used the technique to add privileged users, disable network security settings and execute code that enables further network exploitation (RFE/RL, 05.29.20)

Elections interference:

• FBI Director Christopher Wray ordered a review of the bureau's investigation into Michael Flynn. In a statement, the FBI said May 22 that its inspections division would conduct an "after-action review" to assess whether any current employees engaged in misconduct, and evaluate whether the FBI should amend any policies implicated by the investigation. The FBI's review is separate from one being conducted by St. Louis U.S. Attorney Jeff Jensen, who unearthed documents from the early stages of the FBI investigation that led to the Justice Department's recent motion to dismiss the case (Wall Street Journal, 05.22.20)
• As one of his last acts in office, Richard Grenell, the outgoing director of national intelligence, declassified a batch of Trump-Russia documents, including one that a senior U.S. intelligence official said is “very significant” to the origins of the Russia probe. Grenell also declassified transcripts of phone calls between Flynn and Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Incoming national intelligence director John Ratcliffe will ultimately decide when to release the documents Grenell declassified. (The National Interest, 05.29.20)
• U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, who refused a Justice Department request to immediately drop the prosecution of Flynn, has hired a high-profile trial lawyer to argue his reasons for investigating whether dismissing the case is legally or ethically appropriate. (The Washington Post, 05.28.20)
• U.S. Attorney General William Barr has tapped a federal prosecutor to examine Obama administration officials' use of the practice known as "unmasking" around the time of the 2016 presidential election, which Trump has portrayed as an effort to undermine him. U.S. Attorney John Bash of the Western District of Texas will oversee the review, which comes in conjunction with another probe Barr requested into the origins of the FBI's Russia investigation. (Wall Street Journal, 05.29.20)
• Former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will testify before senators next week in a hearing that will give Trump's allies a high-profile platform to escalate their attacks on the Russia investigation. Sen. Lindsey Graham, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, invited Rosenstein to appear before the panel. Graham said Rosenstein would address findings in a report by the Justice Department inspector general that investigators' applications to wiretap former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page were riddled with errors and other problems. (New York Times, 05.28.20)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia and OPEC need to analyze the global oil market before deciding on any potential changes in their output-cuts agreement, the Kremlin said ahead of the alliance’s next meeting conference on June 9-10, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked if Russia sees any need for deeper cuts. (Bloomberg, 05.26.20.)
• Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft, is struggling to supply its long-term buyers with crude oil as it has to cut output due to the OPEC+ deal and will find it hard to keep the current cuts through the end of 2020, as Saudi Arabia is reportedly proposing, Reuters reported. (Oil Price, 05.28.20)
• U.S. sanctions forced Swiss pipe-laying company Allseas to sail away from the Nord Stream 2 project five months ago with 94 percent of it completed, and just 160 kilometers of pipe left to lay on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. However, Gazprom now says it will bridge that gap—in Danish territorial waters—alone and get the pipeline ready to start operations in spring 2021. The Akademik Cherskiy, a pipe-layer, is currently berthed in the German port of Mukran, where Nord Stream 2’s logistics base is located. (Financial Times, 05.29.20)
• Russia became the top crude oil supplier to China last month, overtaking Saudi Arabia with an average of 1.75 million barrels per day versus 1.26 million for Saudi Arabia, Reuters has reported, citing customs data. In fact, last month Saudi Arabia fell to the third spot among Chinese oil suppliers, with Iraq taking second place. (Oil Price/Reuters, 05.27.20)
• In Kazakhstan, more than 900 oil workers have been infected with coronavirus at the giant Tengiz oil field, according to state media reports. The field, which produces around 600,000 barrels a day, or 0.6 percent of global oil output, is operated by a consortium led by Chevron.  In Russia, Rosneft and Gazprom have reported outbreaks in Siberia, forcing them to quarantine workers and close airports. (Wall Street Journal, 05.28.20)
• On May 19, the Christophe de Margerie tanker kick-started this year’s Northern Sea Route shipping season on a voyage across the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route. The vessel owned and operated by Russian shipping company Sovcomflot loaded up liquefied natural gas in Sabetta and is due to arrive in the Chinese port of Jingtang on June 11. In the nearly 300-meter vessel's wake now follows the Vladimir Voronin, a vessel operated by company Teekay. The Vladimir Voronin is not accompanied by an icebreaker. (The Barents Observer, 05.29.20, The Moscow Times, 05.29.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A second shipment of U.S.-built ventilators will head to Moscow to help Russia in its fight against the coronavirus, a goodwill gesture by Trump’s administration that has been trailed by questions and criticism. The shipment is scheduled to arrive in Moscow on May 30. (RFE/RL, 05.29.20)
• U.S. citizen Paul Whelan, on trial in Russia on an espionage charge, has undergone emergency hernia surgery. Whelan's family said in a statement on May 29 that the U.S. Embassy had informed them earlier in the day that Whelan's health had deteriorated and he was taken for surgery at Moscow’s Sklifosovsky Emergency Medical Center. Russian prosecutors have earlier asked a Moscow court to find Whelan guilty of espionage—a charge Whelan and U.S. officials vehemently deny—and sentence him to 18 years in prison. The Moscow City Court set June 15 as the date to hand down its verdict. (RFE/RL, 05.29.20, RFE/RL, 05.25.20)
• The U.S., Canada and 14 European states say Russia has failed to respond to serious human rights violations and abuses in Chechnya, where a "climate of impunity" continues to prevail against human rights defenders, journalists and members of the LGBT community. (RFE/RL, 05.26.20)
• Russia has demanded an apology from the Bloomberg news agency over a report it published about Putin's low trust rating among Russians. A report on Bloomberg noted that only 27 percent of respondents in the VTSIOM poll published April 27 named Putin when asked to name a politician they most trust. The embassy, however, said that "the editors of Bloomberg continue to show complete disrespect for its readers" since the "real level of trust" is 67.9 percent, a number that refers to a second part of the poll that asked specifically whether the respondent trusted Putin. (RFE/RL, 05.25.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 8,572 new coronavirus infections May 29, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 387,623. A record 232 people have died, bringing the total toll to 4,374—a rate considerably lower than in many other countries hit hard by the pandemic. The number of people who have recovered in the past 24 hours stood at 8,264. (The Moscow Times, 05.29.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• The Moscow health department said that, under a new counting methodology that includes fatal diseases accelerated by the coronavirus as a “catalyst” but not necessarily caused by it, 1,561 people with the coronavirus had died in the capital in April, not 639 as reported earlier. The increase, the department said, means that Moscow had a mortality rate in April of 2.8 percent, double that of the previous counting system, but still “undeniably lower” than the 10 percent it said had been recorded in New York and 23 percent in London. (New York Times, 05.29.20)
• The head of Russia's consumer protection and well-being agency, Anna Popova, warned on May 24 of increased COVID-19 death rates even as official figures show a slight easing in daily infections since peak counts around two weeks ago. (RFE/RL, 05.24.20)
• One in four Russians believe that the global coronavirus pandemic is made-up, according to a survey by Moscow’s Higher School of Economics cited by the RBC news website. (The Moscow Times, 05.29.20)
• Starting May 25, Muscovites will be allowed to walk outside for the first time in two months—with a number of restrictions still in place—as the Russian capital eases some parts of its lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus. (The Moscow Times, 05.29.20)
• Russia’s April lockdown hit the statistics this week, after Rosstat reported that retail sales were down a massive 23.4 percent year-on-year and unemployment has almost doubled in the month, the state statistics agency said May 27. (bne IntelliNews, 05.27.20)
• Putin has promised cash bonuses of up to $1,100 a month for each doctor, nurse and other ''front line'' health worker involved in fighting the virus. More than a month after he spoke, the money has yet to materialize for many. Instead, some doctors have received visits from police investigators and prosecutors demanding to know why they complained publicly about not getting their bonuses. (New York Times, 05.25.20)
• When asked by the Levada Center pollster in November 2017 to name five to six Russian politicians whom they trust the most, 59 percent mentioned Putin in their answers. In the latest poll, from May 2020, that share declined to 25 percent, according to Levada. (Russia Matters, 05.29.30)
• Putin has signed into law a new measure that allows elections at all levels and referendums to be conducted by mail and via the Internet. (RFE/RL, 05.23.20)
• The human rights community is mourning the death of Sergei Mokhnatkin, an accidental dissident who over the last decade became a respected standard-bearer for those opposed to the authoritarian government of Vladimir Putin. Mokhnatkin died in Moscow on May 28 after a long illness at the age of 66. (RFE/RL, 05.29.20)
• Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s audience for his YouTube livestreaming channel tripled as the coronavirus took hold. (New York Times, 05.29.20)
• With the Siberian Arctic seeing record warm conditions in recent weeks and months, scientists monitoring Arctic wildfire trends are becoming more convinced that some of the blazes erupting in the Arctic this spring are actually left over from last summer. (The Washington Post, 05.29.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• One year after the fatal accident with a nuclear-powered missile in the White Sea, Russia's weapons designers say a test launch of the Poseidon nuclear powered underwater drone will take place this fall. (The Barents Observer, 05.28.20)
• This week Russian state media reported that the Russian military has begun construction of the nation's first strategic stealth bomber, which is being produced within the Perspective Aviation Complex for Long-Range Aviation (PAK DA) program. PAK DA was designed using the so-called "flying wing scheme"—suggesting it would be similar in profile to the U.S. Air Force's Northrop B-2 Spirit. (The National Interest, 05.27.20)
• Knyaz Vladimir, the fourth Borey-class submarine and the first ship of the Project 955A class, was officially handed over to the Russian navy. It is expected to formally join the Northern Fleet in June 2020. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 05.28.20)
• On May 22, the Russian Air and Space Forces successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1b launcher from launch pad No. 4 of launch complex No. 43 of the Plesetsk site. The satellite is the fourth spacecraft of the new early-warning system known as EKS or Kupol. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 05.22.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Eight foreign crew members kidnapped from a container ship off Benin's coast last month have been freed, the Nigerian navy says. The eight include nationals from Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria and the Philippines. (RFE/RL, 05.25.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia is coordinating with countries including France to invite their leaders to attend a massive military parade in Moscow on June 24, the Kremlin said May 28. Putin on May 26 announced the annual May 9 Victory Day parade would be held in June after postponing the event last month to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Peskov said invitations to several former Soviet countries were being renewed and Kyrgyzstan on May 28 confirmed its president would attend. (AFP, 05.29.20)
• Germany's Foreign Ministry has threatened EU sanctions against "those responsible" for a 2015 hacking attack on the German parliament, including a Russian national, as a diplomatic dispute between the two countries intensifies. The ministry said in a statement on May 28 that it had summoned the Russian ambassador to Berlin to deliver the message, saying evidence showed that Dmitry Badin was working for the Russian intelligence agency at the time of the attack. (RFE/RL, 05.28.20)
• The U.S. military on May 26 accused Russia of deploying fighter jets from Syria to Libya in support of Russian mercenaries operating there. One defense official said "at least" 14 Russian aircraft had been flown to Libya. Africa Command also released a surveillance photograph which it said showed the Russian aircraft, a MiG-29, in Libya. The claim is unsubstantiated and false, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Defense Committee, Andrei Krasov, told Interfax on May 27. (CNN, 05.26.20, Interfax, 05.27.20)
• Forces backing Libya's unity government said May 25 that hundreds of Russian mercenaries fighting for their rival, military commander Khalifa Haftar, had been evacuated from combat zones south of Tripoli. (AFP, 05.25.20)
• Russia’s space agency says it will send a team of specialists to South America to investigate the leak of toxic fuel from a Russian rocket stage at the Guiana Space Center. (AP, 05.29.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Russia announced May 27 that the coronavirus pandemic has forced it to postpone two international summits set for St. Petersburg in July. Officials responsible for the BRICS and SCO summits "decided to postpone" both events scheduled for July 21-23 in Russia's second city, according to a statement on the Kremlin website. (AFP, 05.27.20)

Ukraine:

• Industrial production in Ukraine in April 2020 fell by 16.2 percent year on year, compared with the March drop of 7.7 percent, February’s fall of 1.5 percent and January’s contraction of 5.1 percent, the Ukrainian State Statistics Service said on May 23. (bne IntelliNews, 05.27.20)
• Worker remittances will drop 17 percent this year to $10 billion, calculates the National Bank of Ukraine. Despite the $2 billion drop, labor will remain Ukraine’s second largest export, after food. The World Bank estimates that Ukrainian workers sent home $15 billion in 2019—the equivalent of 10 percent of the nation’s GDP. (Ukraine Business News, 05.26.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• In January-April 2020, Belarus’s industrial output declined 3.8 percent year-on-year as the double whammy of the oil price collapse and the coronavirus stop-shock hit home. (bne IntelliNews, 05.25.20)
• About 100 people at the construction site of a controversial nuclear power plant in Belarus have become infected with the coronavirus, the head of Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear corporation, has said. (Bellona, 05.27.20)
• In one of the biggest political protests Belarus has seen this year, more than 1,000 demonstrators rallied in the capital on May 24 to oppose longtime President Alexander Lukashenko's bid to run for a sixth term. (RFE/RL, 05.25.20)
• Belarusian authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko is reportedly going to reshuffle his cabinet on the eve of the August presidential election. (bne IntelliNews, 05.27.20)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)—Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan—should beef up their capacity to repel biosecurity threats such as the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. (RFE/RL, 05.26.20)
• Georgia’s president has warned that Russia’s struggle to contain the spread of coronavirus and an economic crisis compounded by an oil price collapse risks triggering new Kremlin aggression beyond its borders. Salome Zurabishvili, whose country lost a fifth of its territory to a 2008 invasion by Moscow, said history suggested internal problems in Russia tended to drive external belligerence rather than efforts to “revisit relations with its neighbors in a more cooperative manner.” (Financial Times, 05.25.20)
• The European Court of Human Rights says Azerbaijan was wrong to release Ramil Safarov, convicted of killing Armenian national Gurgen Margarian while the two were on a NATO training course in Hungary. (RFE/RL, 05.26.20)
• Armenia has just 26 intensive care beds left for COVID-19 patients. Officials ended lockdown as the poor country’s fears of economic damage mounted, but they now have a second surge of infections on their hands. (bne IntelliNews, 05.27.20)
• Tajikistan's Border Guarding Directorate has accused Kyrgyzstan of "attempting to destabilize" the situation at a disputed segment of the border between the two Central Asian nations after fresh clashes in recent days. The Tajik side said in a statement on May 27 that the latest provocation came as a Kyrgyz man allegedly shot a 25-year-old Tajik woman, who was hospitalized with a gunshot wound. (RFE/RL, 05.28.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.