Is Vladimir Putin’s Russia rising, declining or stagnating, and compared to whom?

The answer to this question is of fundamental importance for the U.S. and the global order. Changes in Russia’s standing shape America’s and other great powers’ policies toward Russia, as well as Russia’s own policies toward other countries. Measuring the dynamics of Russia’s power in the 21st century is also of vital importance to the U.S. because Russia will continue to impact America’s national interests and the global order in profound ways in the foreseeable future for a number of reasons. The alternate positions that Russia can take on a number of issues central to U.S. national security affect the safety and security of America in substantial ways.

This debate, like others in our Contestable Claims section, takes on a crucial question impacting the U.S.-Russia relationship. In the opening argument, Simon Saradzhyan, director of the Russia Matters project, and Nabi Abdullaev, a lecturer at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences and associate director at Control Risks, argue that Russia’s national power has been rising under Putin compared to Russia’s Western competitors, but declining relative to China and India. This, the authors argue, explains Russia’s more aggressive posture toward the West as it “assert[s] its vital national interests in countries or regions that it has traditionally viewed among its so-called ‘privileged interests,’” while also adopting a more accommodating attitude toward China.

In his response to Saradzhyan and Abdullaev, Andrew Kuchins, senior fellow at the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies, Georgetown University, argues that “Russia is rising and declining simultaneously.” Russia's military power has grown, but "Putin has not created the conditions crucial for sustained economic growth and the development of new commercial technologies." In fact, Kuchins argues, Putin's policies "have for the most part hurt rather than helped Russia’s technological competitiveness and prospects for long-term sustainable economic growth." While "key elements of Russian power grew during Putin’s first two terms as president," Kuchins writes that they have "relatively declined or stagnated at best for the past decade."