Claim in January 2026: “Russia’s total military spending in 2025 has been estimated at 15.5 trillion rubles—in nominal terms, five times that of 2021.”
Source of the claim: The Wall Street Journal (Jan. 11, 2026)
In a Jan. 11, 2026, op-ed titled “The U.S. Could Make 2026 Even Worse for Putin Than 2025,” Amy Knight wrote that “Russia’s total military spending in 2025 has been estimated at 15.5 trillion rubles—in nominal terms, five times that of 2021.” However, RM’s analysis of Russian budgetary documents and data from both the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), indicates that Russian military expenditures increased from 3.16 to 4.62 times in nominal terms (without adjusting for inflation) from 2021 to 2025 (See Table 1). In real terms, expenditures increased from 2.43 to 3.12 times over the period of study (See Table 1).
According to SIPRI’s data, Russian military spending increased over three times in nominal terms from 2021 to 2025, rather than five times (See Table 1, row 1). According to IISS data, Russian military spending increased 4.62 times in nominal terms from 2021 to 2025. Finally, according to Russian budgetary documents, Russian military spending increased by 4.35 times from 2021 to 2025.
Our analysis of Russian budgetary figures and SIPRI and IISS data indicates that it is factually incorrect to state that Russia’s military spending was five times greater in 2025 than in 2021. While it is possible that the author rounded up the 4.62 times increase based on IISS figures (Table 1, row 4) to get a “five times” increase, all other sources show a smaller change in defense expenditure that cannot be similarly rounded up. While technically incorrect, the claim does provide an idea of the scale of Russia's increased military spending.
Table 1: Comparison of Russia’s Defense Expenditures in 2021 and 2025.
| Source | Year 2021 | Year 2025 | % Change | Times increase |
| 4.9 trillion rubles | 15.5 trillion rubles | +216.3% | 3.16× |
| 207 billion PPP international dollars | 533 billion PPP international dollars | +157.5% | 2.57× |
| 65.9 billion US dollars | 160 billion US dollars | +142.8% | 2.43× |
| 3.38 trillion rubles | 15.6 trillion rubles | +361.5% | 4.62× |
| 143 billion PPP international dollars | 537 billion PPP international dollars | +275.5% | 3.76× |
| 3.38 trillion rubles | 10.53 trillion rubles | +211.5% | 3.12x |
| 3.1 trillion rubles | 13.5 trillion rubles | +335.5% | 4.35× |
| 131 billion PPP international dollars | 465 billion PPP international dollars | +254.96% | 3.55x |
| 3.1 trillion rubles | 9.1 trillion rubles | +193.5% | 2.94x |
Endnotes
- This 2025 figure has been adjusted for inflation in the 2021–2025 period so that it can be expressed in real terms, (in constant 2021 rubles).
- Ibid.
