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Analysis | Dec 21, 2021
The possibility that Russia might have fewer people and a smaller economy will not negate the fact that it is a nuclear superpower with unfriendly intent. What Russia becomes is less important than what Russia is willing to do.
Analysis | Dec 15, 2021
A serious and good-faith dialogue with Russia about the risks to strategic stability is necessary to understand the changing nature of those risks and the direction new arms races may take and to reduce the risk of unintended escalation.
Analysis | Jul 01, 2021
Inadvertent escalation poses the greatest risk of a political confrontation between Russia and NATO resulting in armed conflict, and as long as one or both sides believe that it is beneficial to use their military forces to make political points, we should expect more incidents of this type to take…
Analysis | Jun 04, 2021
At the Putin-Biden summit, both sides will likely be looking for low-hanging fruits—issues they can easily agree upon that stand to advance U.S. and Russian interests with minimal concessions. In our latest exclusive, Simon Saradzhyan considers low-hanging fruits, like scientific cooperation, and…
Analysis | May 12, 2021
While Macron has attempted to shape Europe’s strategic autonomy in the management of its eastern neighborhood, lack of support from the EU has impeded the success of this policy, as has Russian behavior throughout 2020.
Analysis | Apr 29, 2021
In both Syria and the North Caucasus, Russia claims success in fighting insurgency and terrorism. Closer examination, however, shows this “success” carries major caveats and is more illusory than it first appears.
Analysis | Mar 18, 2021
Has the intervention paid off or has Obama’s 2015 prediction that the operation would end in a “quagmire” for Russia come true? An assessment of some key costs and benefits generated by Russia’s intervention in Syria.
Analysis | Jul 29, 2020
If U.S. officials were to critically assess the track record of American regime change, they might see that Russian statements against U.S. democracy promotion reflect genuine anxiety about regime security.
Analysis | Jul 01, 2020
The probability of Russia resorting to a Crimea-style intervention in the Baltics remains low. As a key energy supplier and major trading partner for the region, Russia has more to gain by using economic levers as opposed to military ones to retain influence.
Analysis | May 27, 2020
The CSTO is too organizationally weak and insufficiently integrated to serve as a capability multiplier for its members, and the weakness of other member states' military forces make them of limited value to Russia as military allies.