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Analysis | Jan 27, 2022

Parsing the Evidence: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

With reams of analysis written to answer this question, we summarize a handful of experts who have backed their assertions with abundant research.
Analysis | Jan 25, 2022

Russia Has Been Warning About Ukraine for Decades. The West Should Have Listened.

While the terms of any compromise with Russia over Ukraine would involve some tough negotiation, we can seek such a compromise without fearing that this will open the way for further Russian moves to destroy NATO and subjugate eastern Europe.
Analysis | Jan 25, 2022

As Markets Crash and War Fears Grow, Russia’s Business Elite Suffers in Silence

Some of the country’s most successful executives are preparing for heavy losses, but unable to speak out or influence events.
Analysis | Jan 20, 2022

Breaking the Impasse Between Russia and the West Over European Security

Compromises by the West—including a lengthy moratorium on NATO expansion—can ensure that competition with Moscow proceeds in a way that minimizes the risk of catastrophic military conflict.
Analysis | Jan 19, 2022

Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis

Had the United States and its European allies not succumbed to hubris, wishful thinking and liberal idealism and relied instead on realism’s core insights, the present crisis would not have occurred.
Analysis | Jan 06, 2022

For Russia and US, National Security Must Be Embedded in Mutual Security

The clash around Ukraine is over competing rights, not merely conflicting interests, and any solution depends on incentives (rather than disincentives) and a rebuilding of trust.
Analysis | Jan 06, 2022

Russia Takes a Gamble in Kazakhstan

If Russia succeeds in propping up the regime in Kazakhstan and making it more pro-Russian, then the Central Asian nation could, like Belarus, become a more reliable ally and partner for Russia.
Analysis | Jan 04, 2022

The Ukraine Crisis Will End Inevitably in a Redivision of Europe

The dividing line between Europe and the Russian sphere of influence in Europe has gravitated westward and eastward over the past three centuries as a consequence of periodic trials of arms.
Analysis | Nov 18, 2021

Germany’s New-Old Approach to Russia: Strong in Rhetoric But Weak in Substance?

To understand Germany’s future approach to Russia, look beyond it. Security and energy policy, more than foreign policy alone, will play an important role, and the repercussions of decisions in these areas will affect Russia’s leverage toward Europe.
Analysis | Nov 03, 2021

Russia’s Defense Industry and Its Influence on Policy: Stuck in a Redistributive Feedback Loop

In competing for government resources Russia’s defense corporations and the people affiliated with them become both beneficiaries and proponents of Moscow’s ongoing confrontation with the West.
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