Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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Putin Has Off-Ramps: Let’s Not Block Them

Henry Hale and Adam Lenton February 02, 2022 Recommended Reads
Accounts claiming Putin has passed the point of no return overlook key sources of Putin’s domestic appeal, which is based much more on pragmatically providing stability, security, and prosperity than on aggressiveness.
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When Redlines Fail

Dan Altman and Kathleen Powers February 02, 2022 Recommended Reads
Washington should create the strongest possible incentive for Putin to stand down by making clear that U.S. sanctions will be maximized if Russia invades and minimized if it does not.
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Taiwan Is Not Ukraine: Stop Linking Their Fates Together

Kharis Templeman January 27, 2022 Recommended Reads
In the current geopolitical moment, the differences between Ukraine and Taiwan are far more important than their similarities—and linking together the security threats that the two countries face can make both situations worse.
article

The Putin Doctrine: A Move on Ukraine Has Always Been Part of the Plan

Angela Stent January 27, 2022 Recommended Reads
As the United States and its allies await Russia’s next move and try to deter an invasion with diplomacy and the threat of heavy sanctions, they need to understand Putin’s motives and what they portend.
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Russia Has Been Warning About Ukraine for Decades. The West Should Have Listened.

Anatol Lieven January 25, 2022 Recommended Reads
While the terms of any compromise with Russia over Ukraine would involve some tough negotiation, we can seek such a compromise without fearing that this will open the way for further Russian moves to destroy NATO and subjugate eastern Europe.
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Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis

Stephen M. Walt January 19, 2022 Recommended Reads
Had the United States and its European allies not succumbed to hubris, wishful thinking and liberal idealism and relied instead on realism’s core insights, the present crisis would not have occurred.
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Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)?

Simon Saradzhyan April 14, 2021 Recommended Reads
Not a day goes by without dire warnings of an imminent Russian military invasion of Ukraine, but Putin is unlikely to order an offensive against Ukraine unless Zelensky makes the first military move on the Donbass chessboard.
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Russia-Ukraine War Alert: What’s Behind It and What Lies Ahead?

Dmitri Trenin April 13, 2021 Recommended Reads
Going overkill in terms of military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border now may avoid the need to do terrible things at a later point.
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Russia's Military Buildup Near Ukraine Is an Intimidation Tactic

Michael Kofman April 03, 2021 Recommended Reads
Russia's military posturing appears to be primarily coercive and demonstrative in nature.
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The Foreign Policy Price of Trump’s Russia Scandal

Robert E. Hunter May 23, 2017 Recommended Reads
In the current maelstrom of U.S. domestic politics, it will be virtually impossible for the United States to do what’s needed to promote its interests regarding Russia and related security issues.
report

Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

Michael Kofman, Katya Migacheva, Brian Nichiporuk, Andrew Radin, Olesya Tkacheva and Jenny Oberholtzer May 01, 2017 Recommended Reads
Russia's military operation in 2014 to annex Crimea was a decisive and competent use of military force, while its campaign in the eastern part of Ukraine was ineffectually implemented but achieved its aim: political fragmentation of the country.
research paper

Illusions vs. Reality: Twenty-Five Years of US Policy Toward Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia

Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, Paul Stronski and Andrew S. Weiss February 09, 2017 Recommended Reads
Long-standing disagreements on national security interests and policies will make repairing the U.S.-Russian relationship challenging.
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