Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Two Weeks In

Michael Kofman and Leonid Nersisyan October 14, 2020 Recommended Reads
Azerbaijan and Armenia have now spent more than two weeks at war. Initial Azerbaijani tactical successes have failed to lead to an operational breakthrough and the conflict may settle into a war of attrition.
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Belarus’s Protests Aren’t Particularly Anti-Putin

Rajan Menon August 19, 2020 Partner Posts
Although some Western experts have warned about a Russian military intervention in Belarus, Russia may sit largely on the sidelines in hopes that whatever government succeeds Lukashenko will be pro-Russian.
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Turmoil in Belarus: Looking Beyond the Horizon

Eugene Rumer August 17, 2020 Recommended Reads
Neither endorsing democracy nor threatening sanctions will advance democracy in Belarus, put an end to police brutality or deter Putin from sending his troops to Belarus to save its crumbling dictatorship—should he decide to do so.
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In the Chaos of Syrian Geopolitics, Russia Remains Dominant

Kamal Alam May 15, 2020 Recommended Reads
Recent talk of a rift between Moscow and Damascus may ignore Russia’s historic role in Syria.
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Ukraine, Not Russia, Will Sue for Peace as Pandemic Pressure Rises

Joseph Haberman May 14, 2020 Recommended Reads
With the prospect of a major economic crisis, Russia and Ukraine may face increasing pressure to lessen the burden to their economies and populations by seeking a peace settlement in Donbass. The pandemic could compel Ukraine to capitulate first.
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In Russia’s Shadow: China’s Rising Security Presence in Central Asia

Bradley Jardine and Edward Lemon May 01, 2020 Recommended Reads
Both Russia and China seek to expand their influence in Central Asia. Russia may have a strategic edge in the region for now, but the gap is closing.
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NATO Expansion and the Great Unraveling of Arms Control

Michael Krepon February 03, 2020 Recommended Reads
The seeds that led to the Great Unraveling of conventional and nuclear arms control were planted during the first Clinton administration—it just wasn’t apparent at the time. 
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It’s Time to Rethink NATO's Deterrent Strategy

Melanie W. Sisson December 06, 2019 Recommended Reads
Both President Trump and President Macron are right to point out that NATO is ailing, but their diagnoses are wrong.
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Turkey and Russia: A Remarkable Rapprochement

Michael A. Reynolds October 24, 2019 Recommended Reads
Turkey's purchase of the S-400 and the broader turn to Russia cannot be ascribed primarily to Erdogan’s supposed erraticism, still less to his Islamist orientation or any ideology aside from mainstream Turkish nationalism.
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How to Enlarge NATO: The Debate Inside the Clinton Administration, 1993–95

Mary Elise Sarotte July 29, 2019 Recommended Reads
Pleas from Central and Eastern European leaders, missteps by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and victory by the pro-expansion Republican Party in the 1994 U.S. congressional election all helped advocates of full-membership enlargement to win.
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It's Time to Rethink Russia's Foreign Policy Strategy

Dmitri Trenin April 25, 2019 Partner Posts
Russia's rapidly changing geopolitical situation necessitates a restructuring of its inconsistent foreign policy. Primarily, it must renounce any aspirations to military or political domination. The author describes the steps that the Russian government must instead take to promote stability and growth.
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Trump Aside, What's the U.S. Role in NATO?

Barry Posen March 10, 2019 Recommended Reads
Trump's movement away from NATO is easily dismissed as poor foreign policy, given his history of bad ideas. This is not the case, as modern NATO takes more than it gives when it comes to strengthening American national security.
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