Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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A Greener Russia? Moscow’s Agenda at the COP26 Climate Summit

Anastasia Likhacheva November 09, 2021 Recommended Reads
Russia managed to formulate three climate principles ahead of COP26 that its delegation is promoting in Glasgow and, most likely, will continue to long after the summit ends.
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Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)?

Simon Saradzhyan April 14, 2021 Recommended Reads
Not a day goes by without dire warnings of an imminent Russian military invasion of Ukraine, but Putin is unlikely to order an offensive against Ukraine unless Zelensky makes the first military move on the Donbass chessboard.
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Russia-Ukraine War Alert: What’s Behind It and What Lies Ahead?

Dmitri Trenin April 13, 2021 Recommended Reads
Going overkill in terms of military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border now may avoid the need to do terrible things at a later point.
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Russia's Military Buildup Near Ukraine Is an Intimidation Tactic

Michael Kofman April 03, 2021 Recommended Reads
Russia's military posturing appears to be primarily coercive and demonstrative in nature.
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How Russia Wins the Climate Crisis

Abrahm Lustgarten December 16, 2020 Recommended Reads
While the consequences of climate change could be catastrophic for much of the world, for Russia, they could be just the opposite.
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The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Two Weeks In

Michael Kofman and Leonid Nersisyan October 14, 2020 Recommended Reads
Azerbaijan and Armenia have now spent more than two weeks at war. Initial Azerbaijani tactical successes have failed to lead to an operational breakthrough and the conflict may settle into a war of attrition.
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Belarus’s Protests Aren’t Particularly Anti-Putin

Rajan Menon August 19, 2020 Partner Posts
Although some Western experts have warned about a Russian military intervention in Belarus, Russia may sit largely on the sidelines in hopes that whatever government succeeds Lukashenko will be pro-Russian.
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Turmoil in Belarus: Looking Beyond the Horizon

Eugene Rumer August 17, 2020 Recommended Reads
Neither endorsing democracy nor threatening sanctions will advance democracy in Belarus, put an end to police brutality or deter Putin from sending his troops to Belarus to save its crumbling dictatorship—should he decide to do so.
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Ukraine, Not Russia, Will Sue for Peace as Pandemic Pressure Rises

Joseph Haberman May 14, 2020 Recommended Reads
With the prospect of a major economic crisis, Russia and Ukraine may face increasing pressure to lessen the burden to their economies and populations by seeking a peace settlement in Donbass. The pandemic could compel Ukraine to capitulate first.
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In Russia’s Shadow: China’s Rising Security Presence in Central Asia

Bradley Jardine and Edward Lemon May 01, 2020 Recommended Reads
Both Russia and China seek to expand their influence in Central Asia. Russia may have a strategic edge in the region for now, but the gap is closing.
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The Paradox of American Russophobia

Sean Guillory July 03, 2019 Recommended Reads
The Russian government’s use of Russophobia to chastise critics is nothing new, but this doesn’t mean Russophobia doesn’t exist. It’s a way of “displacing an internal conflict to an external object symbolically related to the conflict.”
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The Golunov Case Exposes Russia’s ‘Submerged State’

Alexey Yeremenko June 13, 2019 Recommended Reads
The 'submerged-state' is the level of government most often interacted with by investors and is capable of derailing the policies of the ‘outer state.’
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